How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I was 14 when Hunt For Red October came out so pretty sure it is me that is channeling.  Just noticing some similarities in asymmetries and wondering how that would have gone down.

My recollection of the thinking around here at the time was that it would have gone nuclear quite quickly. If the balloon had gone up, NATO couldn't afford to lose and the Soviets couldn't have afforded to not win outright. 

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

The thing that doesn't get discussed enough is the exact mechanism that makes UAS so hard to target. Almost all previous generations of military radar use a doppler effect filter to render the mass of signals that comes back to the receiver intelligible. To rephrase, the radar ignores everything that is not going 200mph/300 kph. For 70 plus years after WW2 this was generally valid assumption. UAVS defeat this simple trick by being small and slow, the slow part is important. I assume everyone in the radar business is frantically trying to teach their systems to use some sort of AI based systems to use some other combination of signals. But as Steve has discussed at length, if the solution cost tens of millions, and you  need thousands of them, you haven't actually solved the problem.

It's not just the low velocity - lots of things you want to see with radar (like tanks, trucks, ships, and periscopes) aren't moving at 200+ mph relative to their background.  Drones just plain have a small radar cross section - somewhere between a barn owl and a vulture, and much lower than typical big metal things of a battlefield.  They're also small enough that even if you're able to detect one at significant range, it could be smaller than the resolution of your radar system.  So you'd know it's inside of a particular volume, but if you're shooting at it you need to fill the cross-section of the volume with anti-drone projectiles separated by a spacing smaller than the drone.

[Holien]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67427422

Quote

Snitching, or reporting neighbours, colleagues and even strangers to the authorities, was common in Russia's Soviet era. Now, as the government cracks down on critics of the Ukraine war, people with personal grudges and political ideals are denouncing others once again.

Pretty sad and adds weight to how the good get taken down by a nasty minority backed up by institutions that have been subverted.

The parallels with Nazi Germany and other dictatorships is clear.

Russians will keep dying in Ukraine...

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Holien
Added quote

[Haiduk]

Just for information - the composition and price of UKR "Aerorozvidka" R18 drone complex, notorious "Baba Yaga" (ugly old evil witch, from Russian fairy tales) as it called by Russians

- R18 octocopter with three pods for RKG-1600 HEAT ordnance - 2

-  control and targeting device - 1

- onboard videomodule - 2

Total price rough 3 536 000 UAH (95600$)

If our "Aerorozvidka" developers could upgrade this beast for more long range, this would be complete pain for Russians. They already announced this summer new upgraded drone of this type R34 - hexacopter with six pods, but no more information about it and I didn't read yet about its usage

"Aerorozvidka" - an institution, having own combat unit, public organization, volunteer fundation, design bureau and research ceneter of military IT-technologies (except drones, they participated in development of famous "Delta" battelfield managment system), who claims each 1$ invested into R18 inflicts 1000$ of damage for enemy and first successfull mission completely recoups invested funds. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian invention %) ATGM mounted on civilian elevating work platform. A worth target for FPV

 

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, billbindc said:

My recollection of the thinking around here at the time was that it would have gone nuclear quite quickly. If the balloon had gone up, NATO couldn't afford to lose and the Soviets couldn't have afforded to not win outright. 

Having watched this war, I am not so sure we are as itchy on the ol nuke finger as we may have thought we were.  I am actually kinda surprised that we have not seen tac nukes or chemical yet in this war to be honest.  If this war is existential to Putin one would expect him to cross that rubicon.  Especially now that he has declared everything that they took as “Mother Russia”.  The nuclear calculus is far more constrained, at least now.  

So not sure they would have started pushing buttons back in 85.  They might have tried to keep the thing in the box.  France would have used them if the Soviets made it that far, so I expect it could have been more localized than we think.  Well thank god we never found out.

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Just for information - the composition and price of UKR "Aerorozvidka" R18 drone complex, notorious "Baba Yaga" (ugly old evil witch, from Russian fairy tales) as it called by Russians

 

I thought it was Keanu Reeves…

[Haiduk]

Russians strike UKR positions near Staromajorkske, Donetsk oblast with RBK-500 cluster bombs. This bomb, depending on purpose can be armed with 565 ShOAB-0.5 FRAG bomblets or 108 AO-2.5 FRAG bomblets, or 268 PTAB-1M HEAT submunitions.

Despite many media now give this as sensation "Russia first time use cluster bombs in Ukraine!", indeed this is not true, this ammunition (as well as Soviet artilery DPICM) was episodically used since beginning of the war.  

 

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.

...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):

“Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”

"We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”

Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.

Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.

You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.

In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Zeleban

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.

Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.

https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2023-monthly-analysis-on-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

C’mon, that was a 5 minute search.  Don’t know who wrote this but it borders on as being as bad a Russian propaganda.
 

Edited November 19, 2023 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Just for information - the composition and price of UKR "Aerorozvidka" R18 drone complex, notorious "Baba Yaga" (ugly old evil witch, from Russian fairy tales) as it called by Russians

 

 

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2023-monthly-analysis-on-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

C’mon, that was a 5 minute search.
 

This is old info. I posted Bloomberg article with newer data - sacnctions don't work, Russia has doubled own income from oil export since April 2023: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/western-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-not-working?srnd=europe-politics

 

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

So this war seems to have strengthen the economy, the nationalistic and militaristic will and the oligarchy of Moscow and they naturally don't see any desire to back down now they are mowing down more and more Ukrainians. Besides ethnic cleansing has never been more welcome internationally, as Gaza and Nagorno have showcased and governments are no longer sensitive of babies dying in  incubators or Ukrainian citizens getting killed by a random bomb in their apartments. It's reaping season again after many years and everyone is rushing to take advantage while it lasts. 

All the other talk we had here was pure wishful thinking. Putin isn't dying of cancer, Russians aren't running out of tech and shells, Russian lines didn't collapse, the invincible Leopards didn't reach the Azov, and let's not talk about Crimea...

I hope somehow sooner or later some half decent leadership (No, I don't mean Trump) emerges from this mess because the people we have now feel like they don't have the situation in hand.

 

 

 

 

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2023-monthly-analysis-on-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

C’mon, that was a 5 minute search.  Don’t know who wrote this but it borders on as being as bad a Russian propaganda.
 

I don’t care whether it’s true or not that Russia has increased profits from selling oil to the West. I don’t care whether it’s true or not that Russia has found an opportunity to operate its fleet of civilian aircraft. I don’t care what Moscow residents drive or where they fly on vacation. I only care about the fact that Putin has enough money to buy meat for this war and that’s a fact. The only way to defeat Russia is to deprive it of money.

[poesel]

3 hours ago, Holien said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67427422

Pretty sad and adds weight to how the good get taken down by a nasty minority backed up by institutions that have been subverted.

The parallels with Nazi Germany and other dictatorships is clear.

Russians will keep dying in Ukraine...

 

Unfortunately, these systems tend to work right to the end.  The Gestapo was operational in the Third Reich in '45, the Stasi worked in East Germany until the wall fell, and I guess that is true for other dictatorships. Avery useful and cheap tool for every oppressive regime and no sign of its upcoming demise.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am actually kinda surprised that we have not seen tac nukes or chemical yet in this war to be honest.  

Yeah, I have been wondering too whether the Russians might crack the lid on chemical weapons, if not to 'break' the stalemate, at least to amp up strain on the UA infantry and LOCs.

1. Purely militarily, would (rocket delivered*) agents be helpful in reducing a fixed position like Avdiivka? Could they kill and disrupt enough to allow Russian troops to occupy the salient without becoming debilitated themselves (well, give or take a few hundred more mobiks, yawn)?

2. Could they conduct more 'focused' attacks (and are these militarily useful, or is gas warfare still really a blunt instrument, only useful in saturation quantities across large areas)?

And by also tossing around some tear gas, WP and thermite, could they muddy things enough to just loudly deny deny deny it all, intending to control the critical real estate before an organised investigation, air and soil sampling, etc. can occur? (thinking here about the many reported incidents in Syria)

3. Politically, whether or not we could 'prove it', what could the West do in response that we're not doing already? Send NBC gear, fine. But it's not like we're in a position to send the UA chemical warheads.

...And short of them gassing civilians in quantity, would it be a casus belli for intervention? I personally doubt it. Just another folder for the war crimes file.

* aerial spray / crop duster delivery being assumed unavailable, unless large drones could somehow do it on a local basis

Edited November 19, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Letter from Prague]

Of course Russia is winning in all measures, since the West objective is for Russia not to lose, and not for Ukraine to win. Read The_Capt about "we don't want Russia in freefall" (he might be heartless but he is definitely smart). The Western decision-makers never wanted Ukraine to win, despite what some naive citizens thought.

[Haiduk]

On 17th of November UKR missiles, likely HIMARS have struck Russian deployment in the building in Askaniya-Nova settlement of Kherson oblast (here is located unique UNSESCO biosphere reservation of origin ancient steppe, settled with 800 different types of wild animals, including even Africans and American like zebras, antelopes, lamas, american bizons etc, so Ukrainians could visit safari tour not going to Tanzania  ). 

Local collaborator puppets claimed AFU hit "empty building" with two Storm Shadows and both missiles were "landed by EW" (!!!). Ok, here is how it looked "empty building"

Along with this strike was claimed about Pantsyr S1 destroying near Chaplynka in Kherosn oblast too - this is 25 km SE from Askaniya-Nova

Now we have video confirmation of Pantsyr destroying. A crew tried to shot down a missile, but...

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

A Russian general who was critical of the army's operation was found dead (yahoo.com)

Another member of the Russian military was found dead under unknown circumstances this week.

Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov, 68, and his wife Tatyana, 72, were found dead Wednesday in their bedroom, per the Kyiv Post. They looked to have been dead for about a week prior to their discovery, according to the Post.

Sviridov commanded the 6th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of Russia from 2005 to 2009, per the Kyiv Post.

[Kraft]

Before this nuke topic reheats for the gazillions time, it changes nothing about minefields, artillery and fpv drones. 

A tac nuke will kill a company or so of infantry and irradiate the sturmoviks riding into the minefield.. 

All the while crossing a red line that has promised NATO air strike retaliation written all over it. So please spare this pointless could russia win by nuking some atgm waste heap position discussion.

 

As for gas, both sides have used it in several instances, not systematic because even when dropped into a dugout, it still only works somewhat well at flushing it out, incendiary works better and has 0 international baggage.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Kraft

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Before this nuke topic reheats for the gazillions time, it changes nothing about minefields, artillery and fpv drones. 

A tac nuke will kill a company or so of infantry and irradiate the sturmoviks riding into the minefield.. 

All the while crossing a red line that has promised NATO air strike retaliation written all over it. So please spare this pointless could russia win by nuking some atgm waste heap position discussion.

I am absolutely confident that the West will not launch any nuclear strike in response to Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Moreover, he will not even use conventional weapons. I think in this case the West will only increase pressure on Ukraine in order to bring it to the negotiating table with Russia

[Elmar Bijlsma]

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2023-monthly-analysis-on-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

C’mon, that was a 5 minute search.  Don’t know who wrote this but it borders on as being as bad a Russian propaganda.
 

Plus, hearing the Moscow...and it's always just Moscow when people tell this story...is achieving Weimar flights of excess is not exactly the flex Russians might imagine it to be. The decadent capital ignoring the realities about to come crashing in was precisely what happened in the late WWI and Civil War era.

And what's new, of course, is old: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/250113.Novel_With_Cocaine

Edited November 19, 2023 by billbindc

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Plus, hearing the Moscow...and it's always just Moscow when people tell this story...is achieving Weimar flights of excess is not exactly the flex Russians might imagine it to be. The decadent capital ignoring the realities about to come crashing in was precisely what happened in the late WWI and Civil War era.

People also somehow seem to forget the Russian economy is smaller than Canada's with over 3x the population.  The wealthy are always the last to feel the effects of economic decline.

Russia may still be exporting energy, but the cost of doing so is higher, the profit is less and meanwhile everything else in the economy is suffering from the cost - even if they can evade sanctions, the cost to do so is still exorbitantly high.

Quote

 

The nation posted a current-account surplus of $5.4 billion for the April-June quarter, which marks a 93% plunge from a record $76.7 billion in the same period last year, Bank of Russia data shows. That's also the smallest excess since the third quarter of 2020.

It shows the heavy blow that Western economic sanctions — imposed on the Kremlin in response to its war on Ukraine — have dealt to the country's economy by squeezing its energy exports.

The worsening trade dynamics are also reflected in the plunging fortunes of the ruble. The Russian currency tumbled to a 15-month low of about 94.48 for each dollar earlier in July, hit hard by the country's weakening terms of trade.

"The decline in the surplus of the balance of the external trade in goods in January — June 2023 compared to the comparable period of 2022 was caused by a decrease in both the physical volumes of export deliveries and the deterioration in the price situation for the basic Russian export commodities, energy commodities made the most significant contribution to the decline in the value of exports," the Bank of Russia said.

Moscow's key source of revenue is through sales of its oil and gas products, but price caps and bans imposed on Russia's energy exports following its unprecedented attack on Ukraine have dealt a huge hit to its commodities business.

In June, Russia's Finance Ministry said that revenue from oil and gas taxes fell 36% compared to a year ago to about 570.7 billion rubles and that profits from crude and petroleum products tumbled 31% to 425.7 billion rubles.

Market commentators have weighed in on Russia's battered economy, with Yale researchers accusing President Vladimir Putin of cannibalizing the nation's economy in his mission to seize Ukraine.

 

 

[Zeleban]

44 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

An excellent opportunity for Putin to demonstrate that there are free and democratic elections in Russia. And Putin will gladly take advantage of this opportunity. Pro-Putin parties in the West will immediately pick up this theme:

“We need Putin in power in Russia. If Putin is gone, outcasts and war criminals like Girkin will come to power in Russia, and then we cannot avoid a third world war.”

 

After the invasion of Ukraine, all of Putin’s permanent “democratic” opponents fled from Russia. Now he has no worthy and more or less well-known opponents for organizing a performance called “Russian presidential elections.” Girkin is one of the few more or less well-known personalities in the West (and of course in Russia). Therefore, he is an ideal opponent for Putin. So I think we'll soon find out about Girkin's pardon or something like that

Edited November 19, 2023 by Zeleban