How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/drone-makers-dilemma-illustrates-ukraines-struggle-get-key-arms/392096/

[cesmonkey]

I wonder what's the minimum amount of a F-16 you need to have in order for the rest of the plane to be replaced by spare parts?
The serial number of the aircraft?  

DOD Aims to Ensure Availability of Spare Parts to Sustain Ukraine-Bound F-16s
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3591267/dod-aims-to-ensure-availability-of-spare-parts-to-sustain-ukraine-bound-f-16s/

[Harmon Rabb]

To lighten things up a little, and show a good example of how some Russian elites in Putin's circle try to portray themselves to the Russian people versus how they really live.

Look it Liza Peskov's Spartan lifestyle, they should film 300 Part 3 about her life in France.

 

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

Rare example of UKR tank engages enemy armored group. First tank probably has blown up by mine. Video if 58th mot.inf. brigade, Staromajorske (not Staromlynivka as has been written) direction

One more armored group was wiped out on Kupiansk direction by 14th mech.brigade. Two Javeln launches on the video

 

R18 bomber has sent to scrapyard next TOS-1A south from Krynky bridghead

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

Another two of those drone chase video. I feel this makes the killing more personal, and I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing:

 

 

[Zeleban]

Training of mobile groups - hunters of "Shaheds". It is interesting to note that, as the fighter states in the video, the ZPU-2 anti-aircraft guns on pickup trucks sent by the Czech Republic have thermal imaging sights, which greatly simplifies aiming. Also spotted were pickup trucks with MG-3 machine guns installed in their bodies and, of course, improvised twin installations of Maxim 1910 machine guns.

[Haiduk]

Situation around Avdiivka still hard. Russians could advance further NW from Krasnohorivka alnog railroad - reportedly on northern flank from southern was moved recon-assault batalion "Sparta". Russians also could seize some part of dachas south from waste heap, their assault groups more and more try to infiltrate to coke plant territory - in present time unsuccessfully, but they don't stop attacks. 

On the southern flank Russians reportedly after a month of shelling of industrial zone ("Promka") on SE Avdiivka outskirt could significantly damage this heavy fortified area (allegedly many damages was caused by 240 mm mortars). So, Russian infantry could infiltarte on part of "Promka" and even some attempts of armor usage there took place, but at least one tank was destroyed. "Promka" is on the hill, so if enemy capture this point, the city will be in direct LOS from the SE too.

The weather also helps the enemy - fogs, clouds, rains interfere of small drones usage (including FPV) and protect Russian asault groups from timely spotting by drones or by eyes

  

Edited November 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

The weather gives this video a very cinematic look.

Of course it is always a treat to see Leos painted in AFU colors. Kinda interesting how now we see all these videos of western tanks in the service of the AFU and don't even think twice about it. Not that long we were worried about sending any kind of western made tanks to Ukraine.

[Zeleban]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

he weather also helps the enemy - fogs, clouds, rains interfere of small drones usage (including FPV) and protect Russian asault groups from timely spotting by drones or by eyes

 

In this sense, the choice of time of year for the attack does not seem so unfortunate.

It is also worth noting that the problem of mines during muddy times is also significantly reduced. Sappers note that the anti-tank mine simply falls into soft ground under the weight of the tank and often does not work

[Zeleban]

It is curious how events would have developed if the Ukrainian Armed Forces had attacked Zaporozhye exclusively in bad weather. I think the losses would be significantly lower Lancets have terrible optics. FPV drones also

Edited November 17, 2023 by Zeleban

[Harmon Rabb]

President Zelenskyy thanks Finland for its support.

[Haiduk]

Known video of the strike on Russian column on Hladkivka village south from Hola Prystan', Kherson oblast today got new deatals

Russian TG claims 1st battalion of 35th motor-rifle brigade was embarked on trucks and in two columns was moved to Hladkivka area. In result of strike 76 servicemen were lost. But maybe this is misiinformation, albeit obviously Russians suffered some losses there. 

But anyway very strange this mentioning of 35th brigade here. This is unit of 41st CAA of Central military district. Most of army now operates in Avdiivka area. I never heard some their part was moved to south under "Dnepr" Trrops Groupment command.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

It is curious how events would have developed if the Ukrainian Armed Forces had attacked Zaporozhye exclusively in bad weather. I think the losses would be significantly lower

This is a very good point worth thinking about.  Are we now seeing a change in the concept of what "good" campaign weather is?  Muddy, rainy, overcast, etc. might greatly increase the survivability of infantry and rear support services.  Speed of advance might be improved even with this because better to advance 500m with low casualties in bad weather than not advance at all even with heavy casualties in good weather.

Steve

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Look back at each previous generation. Once people hit a 'certain age' the opinion gets expressed that everything's going to hell in a handbasket. The young think for one reason, the old for another. You can go back to Greek literature for examples. The hot-blooded youths  think the top-down system is corrupt, the oldster oligarchs think the nihilism rabble threaten stability at the base. Only the details change over time. Granted, sometimes things do indeed go to hell, but the pendulum appears to swings from one culprit to the other. Che Guevara had different motives from Francisco Franco, who had different motives from Pol Pot, who had different motives from Tojo who had different motives from Lenin. Regardless, the result was still things going to hell.

There is truth to this.  Every older generation does shake their heads and wonder if it isn’t all falling apart.  I heard a remake of Billy Joel’s “We didn’t start the fire” with modern references and it rolled just fine.  

So everyone does it…but some turn out to be right.  I am sure some old guys were sitting in a bar back in 1177 BC or 476 AD having the same conversation, and they were absolutely correct their worlds were about to end.

So where does this leave us.  Well the reality is that humanity above about 125 people is always on the edge.  We keep skirting it and pretending that we are not on free fall pretty much all the time.  We invent distractions and control mechanisms but we all know civilization is about three meals deep.  

So why might this time be different?  Well that is the real question.  My guess is that we have seen a confluence of factors that all signal to a potential significant disruption in the species.  Out last one was really that time between 1914-1945, but a historian 1000 years in the future could very well see us as being in a major social singularity from 1914 to 2100.  We look back and see disruptions that last hundreds of years now but in our own lifetimes we can only see 50, maybe 100 years.  So one could make a coherent argument that we never recovered from 1914 and this has all been part of one big century long disruption.

But one has to admit the last 25 years have been nuts, even by historical standards.  First was introducing global information technology.  That ability is profoundly changing us in ways I am not even sure we have seen the end of.  The fact that the “old guys lamenting” now stretch across every time zone on the planet and can gather on a wargame forum is an example.  Then we had the end of the Cold War and a period of turbulence.  We all watched the wall fall and spent the “peace dividends”.  Smart politicians saw opportunity and went for a “new world order”, “thousand points of light” etc.  We thought that nation states were inviolate and that our main job was to get rich and make sure the bad states didn’t melt down too badly.  All the while chasing the “bad guys” across the planet, but they were all comfortably “non-state”.  9/11 shook the tree hard though.  Frankly I think the last superpower is still trying to figure that one out.  It started two foreign wars which turned into slow burn COIN but it was all low level.  Non-existential stuff.  

Then COVID happened.  Worst pandemic in a hundred years, the impact of that little dance are not anywhere near done being felt.  At some fundamental social levels that experience shook people everywhere.  We start coming out of that and then suddenly hard power, military power between states as a method to resolve dispute jumped back on the table.  We really should have seen it coming in ‘03, the seal was broken but that all had enough of a multi-lateral veneer that we could convince ourselves that it occurred within the global rules based order.  But then Ukraine happens and suddenly “policy and diplomacy by war” is back on the menu.  Worse a great power just did it unilaterally against another sovereign state.  In many ways Ukraine is worse than Taiwan.  Taiwan is recognized as a sovereign nation by only 13 other nations (powerhouses like Haiti).  If it wasn’t for US tub thumping and semi-conductors we could easily write that one off as “a domestic situation”.  Ukraine was a fully recognized sovereign nation in the UN…we are not supposed to invade those anymore.

So that shook things up.  Then Hamas/Israel.  Arguably intra-state but looking very brutal.  Taiwan is on the horizon etc.  So I do not know if this is the End of Days but we are definitely “not ok”.

Finally climate change.  This is a 2-3 times in an entire species timeline threat for the vast majority of life on this planet.  Why so few?  Because 99% of all species that ever existed have gone extinct from them.  So here we are facing that pressure to our front which of left untreated could bottleneck us.

So I cannot say if we are done to be honest but man a lot of lights on the old dashboard are blinking red.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Known video of the strike on Russian column on Hladkivka village south from Hola Prystan', Kherson oblast today got new deatals

Russian TG claims 1st battalion of 35th motor-rifle brigade was embarked on trucks and in two columns was moved to Hladkivka area. In result of strike 76 servicemen were lost. But maybe this is misiinformation, albeit obviously Russians suffered some losses there.

Each truck can contain over 20 soldiers each.  We recently saw a thermal video of soldiers bailing out of a bombed truck that demonstrates this.  The video shows two trucks completely destroyed and several more showing no signs of life.  If all trucks had 20 men in them, that's likely 40 KIA in the two trucks and 36 casualties of some sort out of perhaps 80 in the other trucks.

Obviously if the trucks only had 8-10 in each then 76 might be a little high.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Suddden attack of UKR troops on Pivdenne - Horlivka direction in Donetsk oblast. Almost all war this was probably most quiet part of front. UKR forces have taken by assault half of slag heaps conglomerate of five "hills", located north from mining&processing plant. This was old position, held by DPR since 2014. Last time this location was on ear In 2016 during intensive fights for Chyhari hamlet and slag heap #41 south from this plant and in first days of full-scale war, when UKR troops in rapid attack bursted on outskirts of Horlivka, but were thrown back by DPR and Russian forces. 

Now Russian milbloggers say they still control two eastern "terricons", when UKR troops occupy one western terricon and two lower slag heaps between them are grey zone and Russian troops try to push back UKR froces. Let's see either it was just episodical act or beginning of something bigger... By the way UKR FPV drones actively attack traffic on Horlivka-Donetsk road.... Many voices of our "armchair generals" have been voting for attack of Horlivka. 

But Horlivka is a hell for assauter. The city is very wide by square and enormously industrialized - dozens of mines, giaint plants, whole terrain of "artifical mountains" of slag heaps, poisoned lakes of industrial wastes... 

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

 

At first cadres of this video you can see a strike on Russian 2s5 Sp-howitzer by RAM II fixed-wing kamikadze drone.

This is third generation of this Ukraine-developed drone, close to Lancet, bult on the base of Leleka-100 recon drone. First RAM strike UAV was presented in 2018, but didn't interest of our MoD. Next attempt of upgraded RAM II was in 2021, but first serial drones in relativly proper number were produced only in late 2022, when charity funds acccumalated donations, enough for serial production of limited batch of 50 drones. 

Since January 2023 RAM II got increased 30 km range, though warhead was reduced from 4 to 3 kg. Unlike Lancets, RAM II drones are not mass-product. If Lancets use all Russian Spetsnaz units and I suppose most of VDV units, that RAM II is only in service of SBU Special forces. 

 RAM II on the photo

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Heirloom_Tomato]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/ZUZg8PVtg7

A compilation of drone drops and strikes. Viewer discretion is advised.

[hcrof]

talking of smart minefields: fpv drone ambushes where they sit on the ground under observation from another drone. When the enemy appears they pop up and kill them.

 

[Haiduk]

Video of UKR Su-25 sortie. Aircraft carries four S-25OFM unguided missiles each with 20 kg of HE in warhead and 4000 m of range. What is unusual here is a manner of attack - pilot launched missiles in two strafes from light diving instead to shoot all them in one salvo with tossing as "Grad-style".

 

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Video of UKR Su-25 sortie. Aircraft carries four S-25OFM unguided missiles each with 20 kg of HE in warhead and 4000 m of range. What is unusual here is a manner of attack - pilot launched missiles in two strafes from light diving instead to shoot all them in one salvo with tossing as "Grad-style".

 

 

A very risky method of attack. Considering the high launch altitude and the saturation of the MANPADS battlefield

[Haiduk]

I would like this were first signs of decomposition in Russian army like in 1917, but anyway this is just single incidents...

For huge number of Russian citizens from poor regions army is single opportunity to earn enormous money, or maintain own familiy in case of own death and just to feel himself at last real hero, who fights agaisnt "world evil" in face of West. All as according to Dostoyevskiy "Am I amimal trembling or I have a right?". Despite on hidden mobilization, many of Russian recruits sign contracts by own will. Even enlistment centers "highly recommended" to sign contract, many of people can't stand not only against offered problems in case of refusal , but also against temptation of big money. 

If you sign a contract you get 195 000 RU (1900$ ) at one time and 204 000 RU (2080$) monthly for private and 242 000 RU (2470$) for junior officer. Russian statistic gets 40 000 RU as average monthly salary along the country, but real situation can differ significantly for Moscow oblast and Buriatiya or Dagestan. Fot comparison, UKR soldiers on frontline receive 100 000 UAH (2700$) and 30 000 UAH in rear (790$) monthly - it's not a big difference. For a death a family of fallen serviceman in Russia receives 12.4 millions RU (126500$) and in Ukraine 15 millions (405000$). For wounding - 3 millions RU (30612$) in Russia and from 134 000 (3600$) UAH to 1,07 million UAH (29000$) in Ukraine

Until Russia will have a milliards from oil, chemical, agricultural, metal, gold export - to this time they will have a money to pay to own orc hordes, who will go to army with pleasure to assert themselves in own brutality, violance and robbery, to gain money, honor and social lift. But here need a political will of West, indeed we have "busines as usual" in many cases

Russia income of oil export have been raising since July:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/western-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-not-working?srnd=europe-politics

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Kamil still beating the drums over European suppliers funneling precision tools to Russia.

 

[kimbosbread]

How precision tools sent to Russia aren’t sabotaged properly, I don’t understand. I realize the French and Austrian industry totally loves Russia, but still…

[Haiduk]

Russian fatalism as it is