How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The issue for Ukraine is the problems it might cause with allies who still buy from Russia.

Screw em.

Let them eat spot!

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/11/07/lng_venture_global_hurts_everyone_991040.html

Venture Global sells liquified natural gas to various folks in Europe. Unfortunately, they have yet to sell that gas at contracted prices, because they have yet to declare [their LNG export terminal in Louisiana] 'ready' for commercial operations.

Venture Global has found and is exploiting a hole in the regulatory scheme. That has allowed them to sell the natural gas into the more lucrative – as Europe scrambles to find natural gas to replace Russian gas – spot market for natural gas.

Over the last 18 months, the company has shipped out about 200 cargoes of liquified natural gas.

The idea that you can somehow deliver 200 cargoes and yet not be ready for commercial operation is ridiculous on its face. Things can go wrong. But they are not that complicated. Things rarely go wrong for 18 months without some sort of remedy.

 

[Haiduk]

Some activity of Russian territory:

- diversion on railroad in Ryazan' oblast. 19 freight cars and locomotive were derailed. Loclas claim they heard explosions in time of crash. Locomotive's machinist was injured.

- UKR UAV attacked Machinebuilding Design Bureau in Kolomna, Moscow oblast. This institution has been participating in developing of many different missile systems - ATGMs, SAMs, Iskander ballistic missiles etc.

Result of attack in unknown, the local on video says about large "mashroom", which he hadn't time to film, but now a fire in the building, though nothing visible on the video. Also reportedly explosions were heard in Krasnogorsk and Strogino cities of Moscow oblast. 

- one of workshops of gunpowder factory in Kotovsk, Tambov oblast was exploded this night by unknown reason

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

Yes, but you trusted everyone not to get drunk or disappear. the second they were out of sight of an officer. I don't think the Russians can make that assumption. And actually they did a little better than most of the Russians we have seen caught on the bullseye, some of them floored it an attempt to be anywhere else when things went boom. That is above average for a mobik.

True, we did. And we had the BEST NCOs. I'm sure every trooper and officer would agree. The professional NCO corps is not really a thing in the Russian system.

Dave

[poesel]

Re: shooting down drones: a proximity fuze for infantry use would be a nice solution.

But I don't know if you can actually make a round small enough that can be handled by ordinary infantry. The Gepard ammo has such a fuze, but then it is rather impracticable for the average grunt to lug around a barrel that can shoot 35mm rounds.

Or you have a missile as complicated as an AT-4, but smaller. Another item to carry around, of course. But maybe useful enough for this war.

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Haiduk]

UKR troops activated on Hola Prystan' direction (SW from Kherson) - they set control over Bilohrudove village on Bilohrudnyi island. Likley this happened sevaral days or even week ago, and changes was spotted due to footage of Russian drones. No official information from UKR General Staff. About week ago they strictly rejected to comment any info about Dnipro-crossing operaton.

Russian milbloggers complain UKR troops on bridgeheads, especially in Krynky area have just "unlimited number" of FPV drones, which inflicted heavy losses for armor and logistic vehicles. Also they say UKR trops use multiple recon Mavics, so almost each squad can call artillery fire from right bank in short time.  UKR troops defended by probably new EW assets which Russian bloggers called "EW cupola" - by their words Russian have severe problems with own drones and communications, Russian troops suffered a lack of own EW assets, so UKR drones fly impudent and "khokhols became so insolent that use extreme low altitude helicopter strikes at our positions with S-8 rockets and even deploy SHORAD AD assets in 1-2 km from the river on right bank, shooting down most of our drones, which try to spot artillery". 

Our units also have huge support of "Magyar Birds" unit, which likely already became independent UCAV unit maybe regiment of higer subordination. Russians say "some very known personage (Magyar) set in Kherson on residental building powerful transmitter, which allows his unit reach too far and breakthrough our week EW defense". During last 10 days Russians launched two Kh-31P anti-radar missiles on Kherson, very likely against Madyar's radio equipment.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russia is blocking POW exchanges. Last one took place more than three months ago. Total during public exchanges (I think here weren't included unofficial exhanges with Wagners and on units level during first phase of war) were libereated 2420 of servicemen and 138 civilians

Recently Ukrainian authorities made a statments a whole colony for convicts in Vinnytsia oblast will be provided for Russian POWs, because their number already significantly exceeded capabilities of other places of their keeping

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/11/ex-nato-chief-proposes-ukraine-joins-without-russian-occupied-territories
 

[acrashb]

Closer and closer to slaughterbots.

Those who enjoy war porn (i've had my fill) will be engaged by the bradley shooting up the town - but wait for the end where the drone flies into the shelter entrance and blows it up. So make that a small swarm with some autonomy, and fly instead through the shelter with communications relay drone remaining at each corner to allow the mini-swarm to act as a unit and send BDA back to headquarters.  Then the shelter isn't a shelter, it's a pre-dug graveyard.

This is right around the corner.  With the current rate of AI development and drone innovation (driven by the Russo-Ukraine war) I say eighteen months or so.

Can't tell you how glad I am to be living in a mostly-peaceful country with a friendly neighbour.

 

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think the biggest evidence that shotguns aren't the right solution is the fact that earlier in the war both sides were scrambling to get them via volunteers.  Aside from some early signs of them getting to the front, I've not seen a single one since then.  If they were practical and/or effective I doubt we'd be having this discussion... because we'd be seeing them in action.

The most probable reason we don't see them in action is that it just isn't as practical to hit the bastards as it appears to be in theory.  I've shot my fair share of 410g and 12g skeet/trap in my younger days and I think I can understand why they aren't all that practical.

On a range you know where the clay pigeon is coming from and where it is going.  You also can predict its speed and its flight path because the path is predictable once you understand its vector and speed.  Yes, good ranges have multiple houses that can vary both speed and vector, but it's within certain parameters.  Pigeons doesn't suddenly stop, go straight up, then drop down 1m, zig-zag, or zip over your head at 30mph.  Pigeons also don't hover 100m away out of effective range.

We've seen drone operators take evasive action when being shot at just in case someone gets lucky.  If an operator detected a shotgun it would be pretty easy to ensure it wasn't hit.

So, shotguns are theoretically effective only.  Which is likely why we don't see them out there.

Interestingly, I've not seen portable EW guns for a while now.  I'm sure they are still being used, especially by static defensive units, but we were seeing them quite frequently when they were first being mass deployed last year.

Steve

Only thing along this vein I can think of that might work is automatic shotguns...but we are back to noise, training and logistics support.  This is not "perfect solutions" it is "do no self-harm".  In the grand scheme there is a brutal calculus at play here that most civilians do not understand.  A few soldiers dying by drone even on a daily basis is sustainable.  Trying to get ten thousand shotguns into the field and keep them there means something else has to give...so what do you want to lose?  Driver training, fieldcraft?  Given ten thousand altermatic shotguns to a bunch of scared teenagers who do not have a reliable drone detection system is a recipe for a lot of hilarity.  Ten thousand automatic shotguns are going to create logistical burdens to keep in the field, where is that coming from.  And then add that to the fact that the damn things will likely draw more fire and risk costing more lives than they save - anyone thing the RA wont figure out to simply send drones low and slow so UA soldiers will shoot at them and then lob in artillery/mortars? 

Shotguns for trench clearing, maybe but as you note they don't even seem to have that utility.  We appear to have entered into an era of military asymmetry.  Range, precision, illumination and lethality favor the defender but not offense.  There are no simple or easy solutions to this, or someone would have tried them.  Drones are not quite autonomous enough, nor have enough endurance to support corrosive offence or C-UAS shield.  UGVs are not developed enough to re-energize ground manoeuvre.  No one has cracked C-C4ISR.  My sense is that we are stuck, and may remain stuck for a while yet.  

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile situation near Avdiivka getting worse. During last 2-3 days Russians not only crossed railroad between coke plant and Stepove village, but significantly advanced north from Krasnohorivka and even entered to easten part of Stepove village (but were pushed back soon), their recon groups also make probes on coke plant territory.  

All attempts of UKR troops to push Russians behind railroad were failed. 47th brigade in theese attacks lost at least two Leo2 destropyed and several Bradleys were damaged and abandoned. 

Video of Russian advance to Stepove, which finished not very good for them

Russians conducted a "Bakhmut tactic" of continuous infantry attacks with artillery support and FPV drone strikes. Usage of armor now significantly reduced, but assault groups mostly have small armor support. Some differences - their infantry coordination, training and command level significantly worse than Wagners, but they have MANY of them and Russian command doesn't interest how much of them will find own death during advance. Reportedly Russian batatlion commanders have been fu..ng out by brigade chiefs and higher for big losses in equipment, but not in personnel. 

From other hand I already have seen two UKR servicemen logical questions, why our command just put troops in passive defense and just "extinguish fire" with small armored fireteams - with such tactic Russians anyway will trumpling staep by step our defense. Why nothing is doing to eliminate of northern salient, for example by strike north from Krasnohorivka and along H-20 road? 

 

UKR 31st mech.brigade engages armored platoon size assault group

And here southern flank of Avdiivka, where Russians havn't significant success - destroyed column of 111th mobilization reserve motor-fifle regiment of DNR

One of attempts of UKR troops to supress Russians in railroad area with Leo2 and Bradley fire.

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Closer and closer to slaughterbots.

Those who enjoy war porn (i've had my fill) will be engaged by the bradley shooting up the town - but wait for the end where the drone flies into the shelter entrance and blows it up. So make that a small swarm with some autonomy, and fly instead through the shelter with communications relay drone remaining at each corner to allow the mini-swarm to act as a unit and send BDA back to headquarters.  Then the shelter isn't a shelter, it's a pre-dug graveyard.

This is right around the corner.  With the current rate of AI development and drone innovation (driven by the Russo-Ukraine war) I say eighteen months or so.

Can't tell you how glad I am to be living in a mostly-peaceful country with a friendly neighbour.

 

Absolutely insane.  The damn things are becoming basically flying grenades.

[Haiduk]

Weekly report of SBU "Alfa" SOF unit, which detachment operates in Avdiivka area - 16 tanks, 28 light armor, 11 artillery systems, 4 MLRS, 1 AD asset, 165 of infantry were hit by their drones. 

Video of 53rd mech. brigade from southern flank of Avdiivka. Looks like UR-77 turned into crater (but the range is too far, alas, to understsnd what it was), several BMPs stand in teh area of this huge explosion

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Zeleban said:

I remember there was a discussion here about the effectiveness of mine-resistant boots in case of a mine explosion. Here are the results:

 

Than you for posting this!  I have been curious about these shoes since we first saw them mid last year.  The theory was always good, but we know that sometimes theory doesn't do well with reality   I am glad to know they are working as intended.  These will save a lot of Ukrainians serious foot and leg injuries over the coming years.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Not likely having any impact on supporting Ukraine, but it is a further example of NATO's eastern members taking steps to shed it's remaining Soviet weaponry.  In this case Romania upgrading to Abrams and ditching (most likely) T-55 based tanks.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/11/09/us-abrams-tank-romania/?expand_article=1

Steve

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Closer and closer to slaughterbots.

Those who enjoy war porn (i've had my fill) will be engaged by the bradley shooting up the town - but wait for the end where the drone flies into the shelter entrance and blows it up. So make that a small swarm with some autonomy, and fly instead through the shelter with communications relay drone remaining at each corner to allow the mini-swarm to act as a unit and send BDA back to headquarters.  Then the shelter isn't a shelter, it's a pre-dug graveyard.

This is right around the corner.  With the current rate of AI development and drone innovation (driven by the Russo-Ukraine war) I say eighteen months or so.

Can't tell you how glad I am to be living in a mostly-peaceful country with a friendly neighbour.

 

Wow one of the best clips of the war yet. That is crazy. 

[acrashb]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 Or maybe we could look at a small calibre fragmentation round that fires out of the same weapon

One can get, and I have used, shotshell ammo in many calibers.  The challenge is spin, as the rifled barrel results in as much as 300000RPM from a rifle (vs much less in handguns) which _very_ quickly scatters the shot.

And then there are the logistics issues and the "holy crap, I loaded shot to try and hit that guy 100m away" factor when someone grabs the wrong mag.

I think C-UAS is a platoon / squad level thing with anti-UAV UAVs and / or netting devices.

Edited November 11, 2023 by acrashb

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Why our command just put troops in passive defense and just "extinguish fire" with small armored fireteams - with such tactic Russians anyway will trumpling step by step our defense.

 

Pending a slaughterbot tech solution, would one possible step be to saturate the threatened zones with FASCAM fields? Make them pay for every meter in even more zombie blood.

...Both sides left compliance with the antimine treaty a few dozen exits back; that's about the least of Ukraine's worries right now.

Also, shouldn't every hardened position in the coke plant by now have giant wire controlled demo charges buried beneath it? Ortona / Mosul rules.

Edited November 11, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Also, shouldn't every hardened position in the coke plant by now have giant wire controlled demo charges buried beneath it? Ortona / Mosul rules.

I suppose, last Russian gains are caused not so by endless zombi-infantry attacks, but that UKR troops lost good fortified positions and hold hastly-dug trenches and foxholes. 

Soldiers say it's mostly a myth about what tell Russian milbloggers, that as if Avdiivka encircled with heavy fortified positions "filled with concrete". This is just they explain own failed armored assaults. Indeed Avdiivka really has strong positions, but not of concrete and even on coke plant no any specially fortified positions, except some trenches and buildings itself, now mostly ruined with almost two years of airstrikes, artillery and MLRS shellings.

[Haiduk]

It's better later than never. I glad that German authorities, gradually, which large efforts, but has been changing own attitude to war in Ukraine and to Russia, throwing away old complexes "we can't be against Russia, because we are guilty for WWII" and gradually taking out "cheap Russian gas niddle". From "we can't sell you engines for BTR-4, because this will increase victims among civilians" in 2014 and "it's no sense to help you, because Ukriane will end own existing through next 72 hours" in 24th Feb 2022 to many useful equipment, ammunition and contracts with Rheinmetal and at last this:

I hope, Germany will gain courage soon and give us Taurus. Step by step. Fear of Russian bluffing should disappear.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russia is blocking POW exchanges. Last one took place more than three months ago. Total during public exchanges (I think here weren't included unofficial exhanges with Wagners and on units level during first phase of war) were libereated 2420 of servicemen and 138 civilians

Recently Ukrainian authorities made a statments a whole colony for convicts in Vinnytsia oblast will be provided for Russian POWs, because their number already significantly exceeded capabilities of other places of their keeping

...or else spread copious unofficial rumours in the RU blogosphere to the effect that PWs are joining the volunteer legion. Sprinkle in a sinister British SAS angle; sucks 'em in every time.

[Battlefront.com]

19 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR artillery or HIMARS has struck Russian supply convoy in Hladkivka village, 25 km south from Kherson, this is Hola Prystan' direction - relatively calm area, distant from Krynky. Russians got too much relax and...

Claimed losses 8 trucks destroyed and damaged, up to 25 killed and up to 30 wounded.

Judging on angry posts among Russian milbloggers, these losses can be close to the true.

 

 

This is an example of Russian drivers having learned something from this war.  OK, yes they were parked too close to each other, but they were 10s of KMs behind the frontline and so I think it is understandable that they let their guard down.  If this was 5-15km behind the front I would not cut them any slack.

However, the important thing to note is what the remaining functional trucks did.  For most of this war we would have seen the doors flung open and the drivers run away, leaving their trucks and cargo to be destroyed by subsequent strikes.  But this is not what happened.  Three trucks in a row did the CORRECT thing for an ambush of this nature and IMMEDIATELY drove as fast as they could around the lead destroyed vehicle and kept on going.  The other vehicles appear to have been damaged by the two ambush strikes.

Not surprisingly, the Ukrainian strike was textbook.  Smash first vehicle, smash last vehicle, then smash inbetween.  However, it seems in this case they only could, or decided to, invest two PGMs.  Perhaps because they felt that any of the remaining vehicles in the middle were sufficiently damaged.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:32 PM, Battlefront.com said:

According to the WSJ article that kicked all of this off, it seems to be mostly centered on Russia trying to take back helicopter engines:

Here's a bit more info on it:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3784539-russia-wants-to-buy-back-helicopter-engines-from-partner-countries-due-to-losses-in-ukraine-wsj.html

This is not really surprising.  The high intensity use of helicopters must be using up stocks of replacement parts and full engines.  This might be complicated by the fact that before 2014 their helicopter engines were made in Ukraine by Motor Sich.

https://uacrisis.org/en/4234-ukraines-helicopter-engine-producer-looks-west-alternative-russian-market

I have no idea what Russia did after 2014 to address the loss of its suppliers in Ukraine, but if it's the usual Russian thing they probably increased domestic production by a bit and outsources the rest.  If they outsourced they probably lost access to those sources since sanctions.

Steve

Makes sense. Aircraft turbine engines must be replaced at specific numbers of operating hours, for example 1,500 flight hours (just an example as it’s been more than 30 years since I built-up helicopter turbine engines). It takes around 100 work hours just to assemble the components. That doesn’t include building the components such as an axial compressor. Let’s say the compressor is a seven-stage compressor, each stage must be assembled with blades, seals, , etc. individually, then assembled together. From there, it has to be spin-tested to balance it. Then, it goes down the line to have bearings and bearing races (and sometimes other components). Then the engine engine has to be assembled and tested before being “canned” and shipped.

To give you an idea of how long a helicopter engine might last during a conflict, I was assembling helicopter engines in January of 1991 when the first Iraq war began. In February, we were starting to see engine that had been replaced because there was glass on the gas generator blades that provided power to the rotors.

[NamEndedAllen]

Political dynamite…elections. And all that jazz:

“A senior Ukrainian military officer with deep ties to the country’s intelligence services played a central role in the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline last year, according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation. The officer’s role provides the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership to a controversial act of sabotage that has spawned multiple criminal investigations and that U.S. and Western officials have called a dangerous attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure.” 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

 

[chrisl]

12 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Mini Gatling guns which can spew 6000 .22s a minute could be successful against drones. But we don't see anything new from that direction.

You either need very accurate pointing (i.e. sensing) so you can hit it in a single burst, or you have to haul around an enormous mass of ammunition.  And you need very fast bullets if the thing is zig-zagging unless you're at very close range.

Anti-drone-drones are among the best solutions, but they need a bunch of work so that you aren't killing your own drones with the drone-killier-drones.

(drone drone drone, he droned on...)