How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Tux]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Probably more than those wooden dolls

With Russia firmly in the "rogue state" category now, there's all kinds of things that Putin won't have a problem sharing with NK now.  Nuclear tech is probably on the table, but I'd be shocked if ballistic missile tech isn't already part of the deal.  Russia has nothing to lose and only things to gain by such a deal.  And for the cost of some new artillery shell production, I think NK comes out way ahead.

Steve

The fact that North Korea will also recognise the above means they have an unholy amount of leverage in that ‘relationship’.  If we’re right (obviously we’re all speculating so far) and they can turn off the ammo tap at a moment’s notice to throw the RA into an almost immediate starvation situation… wow.  Just wow.  I mean, to be honest I start to ask myself how long Russian nationalists would tolerate such a situation before Putin starts to be seen as weak for allowing it to continue.

[Tux]

19 minutes ago, JonS said:

I wonder how safe, predictable, and reliable NK ammo is. Chauvanistically I lean toward 'not very', but I don't really have anything to base that on beside second or third order indicators.

If we know anything about North Korean engineering that indicates their tolerances and standards are lacking vs western equivalents, that’s all we need to reasonably propose that their ammo will be less safe, predictable and reliable than western ammo, at least.

Having said that I can’t recall having seen any examples which prove that, myself.

[beardiebloke]

Just saw this UGV announced...

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23189

This particular weapon is probably not a game changer... I mean the flying FPV drones seem very effective already.  Perhaps these are cheaper?  Carry more?

I think in the future you can only prepare your drone forces based on best guesses about what you will face.  Then when your plans collide with reality, strong domestic adaptable means of production will become crucial.

[Lethaface]

On 10/23/2023 at 4:39 PM, Battlefront.com said:

The challenge of discussing unmanned systems is defining what the threat is.  State actor with resources measured in billions of Dollars?  State actor with limited resources, but still counting in the hundreds of millions of Dollars?  Non-state actors with access to resources equivalent of poorer states?  Non-state actors with significant resources?  Non-state actors with fairly tight budgets?  Lone wolves with lots of money?  Lone wolves with modest means?  Combinations of any of these?

Money = capability just as it always has, except that now a little money buy offensive capabilities that cost a LOT of money to defeat.  This has kinda been true forever (WW1 was started by a guy with a pistol), but now the offensive potential that a single person can wield for little money is expansive.

If I were in charge of addressing these challenges I would do three things:

1.  reject any proposed solution that cost more than 5x the threat it was intended to defeat

2.  ensure that any one proposed solution could deal with a wide range of unmanned threats, not specialized responses

3.  take up drugs and alcohol like a 1980s hair band rocker

Steve

I presume people are already working on various products and services for the various ranges of threats you are describing. 

There doesn't need to be a single solution able to deal with all the unmanned threats. Or perhaps better phrased, a solution could implement a combination of shared generic components and specific components which combined in various ways and numbers, which ultimately could deal with a variety of threats. 

If we look to relative recent developments in software and more specific infrastructure as a service type of systems, one doesn't need that much alcohol or drugs to come up with an idea how such systems could work ;-).
Now combine that with mobile chip building machines and 3d printers (now we're ta(l)king some good ****) and voila. 
A lot of taxpayer/risk capital money will be wasted on various of these ideas, that's for sure. And it will be scary because where is the role of the human in these systems? I imagine some 'target tinder' (or 'terror tinder') where some 'red card holder' swipes right or left to OK/N. OK a target for destruction.

A distributed self healing automatic 'HE delivery' service coming with a target discovery service and optional (premium) 'human in the mix' service isn't that wild of an idea, unfortunately perhaps.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Lethaface

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

Just saw this UGV announced...

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23189

This particular weapon is probably not a game changer... I mean the flying FPV drones seem very effective already.  Perhaps these are cheaper?  Carry more?

I think in the future you can only prepare your drone forces based on best guesses about what you will face.  Then when your plans collide with reality, strong domestic adaptable means of production will become crucial.

Weight, range and endurance.  En masse I can see these being hell for ground troops.  They look all terrain but the ground out in the front lines is really torn up.  I am waiting for a hybrid system that can do both air and ground.
 

“The Ratel S is a first-person view (FPV), electric four-wheel drive vehicle capable of carrying a 40-kilogram payload at a speed of 24 km/h to a range of up to five kilometers with a duration of up to two hours. It is remotely controlled by an operator, guiding it through the use of goggles or monitor. It uses an aerial drone to monitor its progress which may also be fitted with a signal repeater to increase the range of the drone.”

 

[Lethaface]

On 10/23/2023 at 5:14 PM, akd said:

Mini-cope:

 

TC had some spare money, but not enough for the whole crew

[akd]

First laser on a heavily-armored platform?

 

[Billy Ringo]

When North Korea has you by the balls, you've got a problem.

[Hapless]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

First laser on a heavily-armored platform?

Well, there was this gem from the Cold War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1K17_Szhatie#/media/File:Self-propelled_laser_system_1K17_Szhatie.jpg

[masc]

[Baneman]

The (original) Top Gear presenters ?

Edited October 24, 2023 by Baneman

[cesmonkey]

5 hours ago, poesel said:

There is no relation between having a lot of energy to having a lot of power - at least the useful sort of power. If you put a nail through your Cap, the energy is released very fast, but not very useful (unless you need an explosion).

Adding large capacitors to your laser does not make them more powerful. The power output stays the same. But you can fire for a longer time.

The analogy to a car works quite well. Adding a gas tank to your car adds stored energy. But it does not affect the power output of your motor. You can, however, drive for a longer time.

https://www.sandia.gov/app/uploads/sites/194/2022/01/VanArsdallPulsedPower072984p.pdf
 

Quote

In a pulsed power machine, low-power electrical energy from a wall plug is
stored in a bank of capacitors and leaves them as a compressed pulse of power. The
duration of the pulse is increasingly shortened until it is only billionths of a second
long. With each shortening of the pulse, the power increases. The final result is a
very short pulse with enormous power, whose energy can be released in several ways.
The original intent of this technology was to use the pulse to simulate the bursts of
radiation from exploding nuclear weapons. 

 

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1716880103618326996?t=FRxW1UANWM5KmYbAIj-aCw&s=19

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.sandia.gov/app/uploads/sites/194/2022/01/VanArsdallPulsedPower072984p.pdf
 

 

Kinda makes sense:

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.sandia.gov/app/uploads/sites/194/2022/01/VanArsdallPulsedPower072984p.pdf
 

 

Kinda like a camera flash…

[Probus]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Kinda makes sense:

 

Power (Wattage) = Joules / Second

Capacitors have an ESR rating that effectively tells you how much current can come out of the capacitor per second. 

So the laser defence system needs high capacity low ESR capacitors to power the laser (we call 'em supercapacitors). 

But I'm kinda getting off topic. 

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's Oct 24th report:

Quote

Russian authorities are intensifying mobilization efforts targeting Central Asian migrant communities in Russia. Russian Internal Affairs (MVD) Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev met with the MVD board to discuss “migration problems” and “ethnic crime” and insinuated that migrants commit crimes at a higher rate than natural born Russian citizens.[7] Kolokoltsev defended recent Russian law enforcement mobilization raids on migrant communities and claimed that Russian law enforcement is enforcing standard legal norms.[8] A Russian insider source claimed that the Russian Investigative Committee is conducting investigations into naturalized migrants with Russian citizenship and is reopening previously terminated and canceled criminal cases in order to mobilize migrants to fight in Ukraine.[9] The insider source also claimed that the Russian Investigative Committee will now investigate migrants for committing any offense, even minor ones, and will expand that individual’s investigation to include their friends and family. The insider source claimed that unspecified actors, possibly the MVD or MVD Head Alexander Bastrykin, ordered Russian state media to increase reporting about ethnic crime in Russia, likely to set informational conditions for further mobilization raids on migrant communities.[10] Bastrykin has continually advocated for the targeted mobilization of migrants with Russian citizenship, in line with Russian law enforcement’s recent expansion of its efforts to detain and forcibly register migrants with Russian citizenship for military service.[11]

This is tea leaf reading, for sure, but it seems that the MoD has projected that volunteers and prisoners aren't going to be sufficient to keep replacing casualties.  Their solution is to invent a whole new pool of warm bodies out of thin air; immigrants and migrants.

Those who have been paying attention will remember earlier in the war the MVD started to do this to migrant workers, but they stopped because someone figured out that Russia's economy requires migrants to perform certain jobs that the domestic population can't or won't do.  The actions taken against migrants caused quite a bunch to go back to their home countries and who knows how many decided going to Russia to work wasn't as attractive an option as it once was.

The obvious solution to the manpower problem is to do another mobilization.  The MoD has even taken significant steps to make this one more effective and smooth than the previous one.  Yet, they've opted for the migrants, despite earlier having decided it wasn't a good idea.

The tea leaf reading part is that he's petrified of the ramifications of another mobilization.  So much so that he's willing to go with something they've already started to try and backed away from.  Interesting.

Steve

[sburke]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Kinda makes sense:

 

Freakin math lessons?  I can barely spell Matth  oops

[Tenses]

As all the new toys are described by "Power", so our "P" you don't really have to consider, if they have capacitors( which is rather obvious) or not. High energy devices, which work in bursts always have capacitors(like for example roentgen lamps).

With these lasers it is even better as usually when we talk about laser, it is described by effective Power. Unlike the usual way this is already describing how powerful is the laser beam itself, not how much juice is the device taking. So you don't get info on how much HP your new car have as for example 300HP might look a lot but only considering that you don't drive 20t IFV. You already have info on how fast it accelerates, omitting the useless stuff. 

In general I would not be too focused on how lasers warm the target as you don't know how highly focused they are and this is highly dependent on distance and weather. I would assume that in 300kW range you will get rapid ablation of the surface, whatever it is built from. For comparison you can get the famous 1MW airbone laser, which was supposed to destroy ICBMs in their boost phase from 500km range. From tests it was considered a success but after spending billions on that to the shock and awe of the constructors, they started to wonder how to get a boening in 500km range of launching ICBM. No comment on this part.  

[Battlefront.com]

Worth watching... why tank clearing vehicles are so prone to failing to do their mission:

Steve

[cesmonkey]

The Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets begins his post today with:

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1342

Quote

As far as I understand, almost the entire front has come into motion...

Obviously, each side is trying to get some tangible, foreseeable results in the near future. An interesting question in this regard: why is there such a rush now?

 

[Offshoot]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

1.  Russia's intake of North Korean artillery ammo is likely sufficient for meeting its current usage rates for at least the next year.  This is many, many times lower than what was used last year (as much as 800% reduction), however still enough to be militarily impactful on the battlefield.  Therefore, Ukraine is better off than last year but not really at some sort of advantage going forward.  ISW stresses the most important factor is if Ukraine can keep meet it's needs, which of course has a lot to do with the West's ability to supply it.

Obviously not going to meet all Ukraine's needs, but just to note that France is going to increase their supply of 155mm ammo to Ukraine from the start of next year. The article also notes that the cost of production of artillery ammo has been increasing, possibly because of the demand.

France begins supplying Ukraine with 3,000 155mm shells monthly - https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/10/16/france-begins-supplying-ukraine-with-3000-155mm-shells-monthly/
 

Quote

 

In a bold move, Paris is set to triple its monthly provision of 155mm shells to Ukraine from the start of 2024. Currently, the monthly shipment sits at 1,000 artillery shells.

“At the year’s inception, we were dispatching 1,000 munitions monthly to Ukraine. However, the dawn of next year should see an upward revision to 3,000 units,” announced Sébastien Lecorneau, the French Armed Forces Minister. These enlightening remarks were made during his comprehensive interview with the renowned newspaper, Le Progres.

 

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Worth watching... why tank clearing vehicles are so prone to failing to do their mission:

Steve

You are baiting me, right?  “Why they fail” is because this guy has zero idea what he is talking about.  Maybe less than zero.  As in, people lose knowledge just by watching his video.

Starting with the flail is the first hint.  A flail is for admin and rear area clearances.  I know some militaries still have them on assault vehicles but everyone in the business agrees they are dumb.  On the modern battlefield the flail is suicide anywhere but clearing parking lots for Bde HQ.  

Minebots - IED work, not for combat clearing.  At least not yet.

Rollers.  Ok, these are not designed to work in isolation.  In fact it is his entire problem.  Minefield clearing is a team sport.  This guy is pointing to player positions and trying to figure out which one is best at “playing football”.  Plough and rollers are the primary breaching systems.  Rollers are designed to 1) detect a minefield, normally through a strike, and 2) prove a minefield after a plough tank has done a breach.  

Every plough tank can only clear a safe lane “that every one must follow”.  Sorry bald YouTube guy we have yet to invent an area clearance plough.  Ploughs are at the center of mechanical breaching.  But they are also tricky and terrain dependent.  Ploughs and rollers are designed to work together in a team.  With their friends, explosive breaching and engineering vehicles.

So opposed minefield breaching is one of the hardest operations to pull off.  Right next to amphib on the difficulty scale.  You normally have multiple breach lane attempts that use the mechanical and explosive systems. Explosive systems still need to be proven after the breach, normally by rollers.  And engineer vehicles for complex obstacles like AT ditches or dragons teeth in the middle of a minefield.  Adding more systems ups the complexity a lot requiring a lot of training and skill to pull off in the time windows needed to be successful.

Breaches fail when the breaching teams fail.  However that is why multiple breaches are done…we expect half to fail from the outset.  Further based on density and cover, one has to scale the number of breaches to try and get a single success.  In Ukraine the densities are so high we are likely talking double NATO doctrine: so Cbt Teams are likely shooting for 4 lane attempts instead of 2.  

Of course this violates concentration of mass restrictions we are seeing on the modern battlefield.  So one either goes small platoon bites and infantry infiltration.  Or establish conditions for a major breaching op, and risk most of one’s breaching assets.  Establishing those conditions has proven to be the hard part.

Minefield breaching operations as we define them in NATO are failing because the battle space is denied to concentration of mass.  RA ISR can even pick up large concentrations of forces and pick out the breaching vehicles.  We have not created the defensive bubble to fix that.  So minefield breaching is not failing because of individual systems.  It is failing because land warfare as we know it is kinda broken right now.  Until we either fix it, or figure out a new way to do these things…we are kinda stuck.

Edited October 25, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

Freakin math lessons?  I can barely spell Matth  oops

“The maths” You barbarian!

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, sburke said:

Freakin math lessons?  I can barely spell Matth  oops