How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[poesel]

Some ballpark (or beer coaster) calculation wrt to shooting done the current generations of drones with lasers.

A quad-copter propeller weighs roughly 3-5 g. Most plastics have a heat capacity of 2 J / kg K. Most plastics also melt or burn or get weak enough at 200 °C.
So you need about 2000 J (or Ws) to heat up a propeller by 200 °C.

Let's assume 10% of the laser's output actually reach the target (wild guess). Dividing the energy needed (2000Ws) by the power, and you get the time you need on target.

Another good guess: a drone can accelerate with roughly 20 m / s^2. With that, I calculated the distance a drone could move (or deviate from its current flight path) until its propeller melted. Assuming it has a heat sensor and reacts automatically.

Laser power - time to melt - dodge distance
20 kW - 1 s - 10 m
50 kW - 0,4 s - 1,6 m
300 kW - 0,067 s - 0,045 m

First, it is easy to see why they aim for higher power. The target can hardly move away in time before it dies.
Secondly, it is easy to see how to defeat this threat to drones: use steel blades. 250x times the heat capacity and 8x the melting point. You'd need lasers in the GW range to defeat that.

I don't even know how long and how often you can fire these things. But it is probably less than you need against a swarm.
You could also try to attack other things than propellers on a drone, but that is even easier to shield.

You can probably punch a lot of holes into this calculation, but I guess the direction is clear. Lasers are not the solution for fast, maneuverable drones.

I'd put my money on kinetic attacks, e.g. bullets. MG on a 2-axis motorized mount paired with some acoustic & optical sensors. Put that on a UGV that follows your squad, and you have a mobile 300m bubble that keeps the drones away from your neighborhood.
 

[hcrof]

12 minutes ago, poesel said:

Some ballpark (or beer coaster) calculation wrt to shooting done the current generations of drones with lasers.

A quad-copter propeller weighs roughly 3-5 g. Most plastics have a heat capacity of 2 J / kg K. Most plastics also melt or burn or get weak enough at 200 °C.
So you need about 2000 J (or Ws) to heat up a propeller by 200 °C.

Let's assume 10% of the laser's output actually reach the target (wild guess). Dividing the energy needed (2000Ws) by the power, and you get the time you need on target.

Another good guess: a drone can accelerate with roughly 20 m / s^2. With that, I calculated the distance a drone could move (or deviate from its current flight path) until its propeller melted. Assuming it has a heat sensor and reacts automatically.

Laser power - time to melt - dodge distance
20 kW - 1 s - 10 m
50 kW - 0,4 s - 1,6 m
300 kW - 0,067 s - 0,045 m

First, it is easy to see why they aim for higher power. The target can hardly move away in time before it dies.
Secondly, it is easy to see how to defeat this threat to drones: use steel blades. 250x times the heat capacity and 8x the melting point. You'd need lasers in the GW range to defeat that.

I don't even know how long and how often you can fire these things. But it is probably less than you need against a swarm.
You could also try to attack other things than propellers on a drone, but that is even easier to shield.

You can probably punch a lot of holes into this calculation, but I guess the direction is clear. Lasers are not the solution for fast, maneuverable drones.

I'd put my money on kinetic attacks, e.g. bullets. MG on a 2-axis motorized mount paired with some acoustic & optical sensors. Put that on a UGV that follows your squad, and you have a mobile 300m bubble that keeps the drones away from your neighborhood.
 

I'm no expert but if you pulse your laser you cause a tiny explosion that will do more damage than the pure heating effect. It's late here and it's a long article but here is more information than you ever wanted to know on laser guns:

https://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/sidearmenergy.php

[Joe982]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Lengthy article in Washington Post about the relationship between the CIA, GUR, and SBU.  It also discusses a number of confirmed GUR and SBU operations:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/23/ukraine-cia-shadow-war-russia/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

Steve

 

I can't read the article, therefore, we have seen fires across Russia in the last 18 months. Does the article imply Ukranian operations?

 

[danfrodo]

Well, here we are at the end of the summer campaign season and RU, sadly, still owns the landbridge and Luhansk.  I was definitely wrong about how summer would shape up.  Now I am looking at where we're at wondering about reasons for hope in kicking RU out of UKR.  

UKR has seriously degraded RU capabilities, of that I think we can be confident.  Maybe that degradation will yield some operational gains in the coming months.  The UKR operations across the Dnieper might yield something but only if they are going to put a lot of effort into it -- infantry supported by lots artillery & drones.  Even then it will take a lot of time since it's a foot mobile force for a while.  

Still no real movement in the south, east, or north, sadly.  Maybe loss of leaves and long nights will help UKR.  Maybe decreasing RU morale and effectiveness with the cold, wet weather will help.  I sure wish there'd be some cracks somewhere.

Meanwhile, RU is doing its best to destroy its own army for nothing in pointless attacks.  So maybe there's hope for something to break somewhere, soon.

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, poesel said:

Some ballpark (or beer coaster) calculation wrt to shooting done the current generations of drones with lasers.

A quad-copter propeller weighs roughly 3-5 g. Most plastics have a heat capacity of 2 J / kg K. Most plastics also melt or burn or get weak enough at 200 °C.
So you need about 2000 J (or Ws) to heat up a propeller by 200 °C.

Let's assume 10% of the laser's output actually reach the target (wild guess). Dividing the energy needed (2000Ws) by the power, and you get the time you need on target.

Another good guess: a drone can accelerate with roughly 20 m / s^2. With that, I calculated the distance a drone could move (or deviate from its current flight path) until its propeller melted. Assuming it has a heat sensor and reacts automatically.

Laser power - time to melt - dodge distance
20 kW - 1 s - 10 m
50 kW - 0,4 s - 1,6 m
300 kW - 0,067 s - 0,045 m

First, it is easy to see why they aim for higher power. The target can hardly move away in time before it dies.
Secondly, it is easy to see how to defeat this threat to drones: use steel blades. 250x times the heat capacity and 8x the melting point. You'd need lasers in the GW range to defeat that.

I don't even know how long and how often you can fire these things. But it is probably less than you need against a swarm.
You could also try to attack other things than propellers on a drone, but that is even easier to shield.

You can probably punch a lot of holes into this calculation, but I guess the direction is clear. Lasers are not the solution for fast, maneuverable drones.

I'd put my money on kinetic attacks, e.g. bullets. MG on a 2-axis motorized mount paired with some acoustic & optical sensors. Put that on a UGV that follows your squad, and you have a mobile 300m bubble that keeps the drones away from your neighborhood.
 

So since you are burning through coasters, what is the approximate energy/time to blind the optics. Because the quad copters are currently all camera based guidance yes? At least for moving targets. I think is true even for near term attempts at autonomy. The Shaheed style fixed wing drones would be vastly easier targets, yes? I mean they could make better ones, but that would probably cost more.

[kluge]

38 minutes ago, poesel said:

Some ballpark (or beer coaster) calculation wrt to shooting done the current generations of drones with lasers.

A quad-copter propeller weighs roughly 3-5 g. Most plastics have a heat capacity of 2 J / kg K. Most plastics also melt or burn or get weak enough at 200 °C.
So you need about 2000 J (or Ws) to heat up a propeller by 200 °C.

Let's assume 10% of the laser's output actually reach the target (wild guess). Dividing the energy needed (2000Ws) by the power, and you get the time you need on target.

Another good guess: a drone can accelerate with roughly 20 m / s^2. With that, I calculated the distance a drone could move (or deviate from its current flight path) until its propeller melted. Assuming it has a heat sensor and reacts automatically.

Laser power - time to melt - dodge distance
20 kW - 1 s - 10 m
50 kW - 0,4 s - 1,6 m
300 kW - 0,067 s - 0,045 m

First, it is easy to see why they aim for higher power. The target can hardly move away in time before it dies.
Secondly, it is easy to see how to defeat this threat to drones: use steel blades. 250x times the heat capacity and 8x the melting point. You'd need lasers in the GW range to defeat that.

I don't even know how long and how often you can fire these things. But it is probably less than you need against a swarm.
You could also try to attack other things than propellers on a drone, but that is even easier to shield.

You can probably punch a lot of holes into this calculation, but I guess the direction is clear. Lasers are not the solution for fast, maneuverable drones.

I'd put my money on kinetic attacks, e.g. bullets. MG on a 2-axis motorized mount paired with some acoustic & optical sensors. Put that on a UGV that follows your squad, and you have a mobile 300m bubble that keeps the drones away from your neighborhood.
 

One word:" capacitors.

The power requirements are much more manageable if the laser is powered by a capacitor bank, which is to say that the laser is charged up between shots. Not enough power? Just charge the capacitors a bit longer.

Bullets deliver more energy per shot, but are harder to aim because the tracking has to take bullet flight time into account. Lasers are much more likely to land on target.

[dan/california]

So if we grant that lasers are less than perfect for killing FPV/or similar drones, I still don't think that makes them useless. The problem they might still solve is the much higher flying, mostly fixed wing systems like the Orlan, Zala and similar. They seem to be able to kill those now, but the cheapest AA missile that will go that high is at lest five times, and in some cases twenty five times as expensive. If a laser can do that for even fifty dollars a shot across a reasonably broad front it might have a real role to play, even if it has to play hide and seek as much as the HIMARS do. 

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So if we grant that lasers are less than perfect for killing FPV/or similar drones, I still don't think that makes them useless. The problem they might still solve is the much higher flying, mostly fixed wing systems like the Orlan, Zala and similar. They seem to be able to kill those now, but the cheapest AA missile that will go that high is at lest five times, and in some cases twenty five times as expensive. If a laser can do that for even fifty dollars a shot across a reasonably broad front it might have a real role to play, even if it has to play hide and seek as much as the HIMARS do. 

Anything that is burning holes in the sky at those ranges is going to get lit up and hammered very quickly.  It had better be able to move fast and be cheap enough to account for losses.

I think it will be more point defence for strategic installations as part of a larger AD umbrella.  Tactical is right out and operational has got some serious challenges.

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There were also missile attacks on a US ship from Yemen.

The attacks were not at the ship as far as has been publicised: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/uss-carney-shot-down-more-missiles-drones-over-longer-period

[Kinophile]

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/avdiivka-russian-losses-from-october

Quote

[...] our team successfully determined the extent of losses incurred by Russian military vehicles in the Avdiivka area in the period from October 10 to October 20. The results reveal that the number exceeds 109, indicating that within the span of a week and a half, Russia suffered the loss of approximately a brigade-sized force.

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Joe982 said:

 

I can't read the article, therefore, we have seen fires across Russia in the last 18 months. Does the article imply Ukranian operations?

 

What? 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Useful 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

No significance, just too funny not to share.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Joe982 said:

 

I can't read the article, therefore, we have seen fires across Russia in the last 18 months. Does the article imply Ukranian operations?

 

High level summary of the article:

CIA helped train and even fund the expansion of GUR and SBU's capabilities over many years.  A big part of that help was training and facilities.  This explains why both were conducting pretty sophisticated and successful ops pretty much right away.  They were already geared up.

As with everything Ukraine, they are directing themselves to the point that the CIA is sometimes quite uncomfortable with what they are doing (e.g. assassinations).  So the GUR and SBU are trying to be sensitive to the partnership, but mostly by withholding information from the CIA that they rather not know about.  Some talk about the non-controversial ops, but mostly it was about the big ones and those are all controversial.

This is not a one way street.  The Ukrainians have extensive HUMINT within Russia that they have made available to the CIA. 

Also some talk about how the SBU still has some lingering Soviet influence and Russian infiltration.  The GUR, on the other hand, is younger and more creative according to reporting.  The CIA funded a new HQ for the GUR to ensure it wasn't bugged like their old officers were.

It was an interesting read that explains why Ukrainian special ops are where they are at today.  A great combo of Ukrainian determination and smarts coupled with CIA money and experience.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, fireship4 said:

The attacks were not at the ship as far as has been publicised: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/uss-carney-shot-down-more-missiles-drones-over-longer-period

Dang!  I knew that.  I saw a corrected report that they were headed to Israel after the initial reporting (assumed?) the ship was targeted.  I forgot about it.  Thanks.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

Some ballpark (or beer coaster) calculation wrt to shooting done the current generations of drones with lasers.

Thanks!  That was an interesting analysis.  I suspected that plastic blades might not hold up so well to even a short blast.

4 hours ago, poesel said:

I'd put my money on kinetic attacks, e.g. bullets. MG on a 2-axis motorized mount paired with some acoustic & optical sensors. Put that on a UGV that follows your squad, and you have a mobile 300m bubble that keeps the drones away from your neighborhood.

 

300m only if you have LOS and the targets are helpfully flying high up in the sky.  See previous discussion about the very real and already existing ability to fly at ground level.  That 300m bubble goes down to 3m

That and a 300m bubble doesn't help you if there isn't a unit stationed to protect whatever is being targeted.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

The three day SMO has become the voyage of the D#%^&*d

[Battlefront.com]

What cope cage doing?

Starting around 30 seconds is one of the best FPV hits I've ever seen.  Certainly underscores how the various anti-drone barriers just can't cover enough of a vehicle to be an effective defense.  First FPV hit disabled the BMP, everybody bails out, then a second one goes in through the back door and BOOM.

Steve

[Fenris]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The three day SMO has become the voyage of the D#%^&*d

You don't say.  This clip stood out to me today re the futility of RU efforts.  The way it pans up at the end to render the victim alone and invisible is pretty sad (with the sound off).  If only the population of RU could see it too.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1716574212477849646

Note, the clip shows a man being (probably) fatally wounded.

[Battlefront.com]

We all knew it was just a matter of time before Turkey's posture on Sweden joining NATO would change.  And now it has:

https://apnews.com/article/turkey-sweden-nato-erdogan-77dce28b7d7386c2e363f2468d089c11

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some idea of what it was like to be in the frontline as Russian assault waves hit the Avdiivka defenses:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Detailed reporting of the activities of Russia's Unit 29155 in Europe prior to this war.  Investigators have linked individuals from within this unit to multiple explosions in Bulgaria of munitions destined for Georgia and Ukraine via the Black Sea.  This same unit, and some of the same individuals, poisoned the Skripals and were responsible for the FUBAR attempt to overthrow the Montenegrin government in a coup.  More recently the commander of the unit is taking over Prig's various African holdings.  Gee, I wonder who made the detailed arrangements for Prig's airplane troubles?

https://theins.ru/en/politics/266039

Just a reminder that Russia has been in a shooting war with NATO for more than a decade.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

We all knew it was just a matter of time before Turkey's posture on Sweden joining NATO would change.  And now it has:

https://apnews.com/article/turkey-sweden-nato-erdogan-77dce28b7d7386c2e363f2468d089c11

Steve

 

Quote

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/18/hungary-sweden-turkey-orban-nato/

Hungary, which has for a year blocked Sweden’s bid to join NATO and appeared to definitively scupper it last week, is just holding out for a little bit of obeisance—but will ultimately ratify what will be the trans-Atlantic alliance’s 32nd member, a top Hungarian diplomat said over the weekend.

 

Now we just have to finalize the negotiations for Orban's bribe. Nothing for it but to pay the man, sadly.

 

[dan/california]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-says-israel-hamas-war-shows-west-must-ramp-up-arms-production/