How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

On positive side- I almost forgot how high political standards of conduct looks like; well, that .^

Correct, I am not even sure if source didn't made this up; no formal confirmation of any official request. Anyway, if this particular persona is guilty, evidence against him will probably pop up and he should be investigated (given his age, it will ofc go nowhere). If not, it's just another twitter drama made from opaque understanding that we will forget in a week. Just a pitty Russians have a feast now.

Now, in real world:

 

 

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Neat. Nice to see these two posing for a picture together.

Could not resist stealing this meme.

 

The thing that doesn't get enough discussion is that ATACMS, in any version, is not just much longer range than GMLRS, it is just as responsive. I honestly don't know if Storm Shadow can be reprogrammed mid air with the Ukrainian set up, but you still have have an air tasking  order, and a strike package assembled and, and... Their is zero reason I am aware of that an ATACMS couldn't be on the way within five minutes of a drone or other ISR spotting a worthy target. It will push trains back to the Russian border, and perhaps the far reaches of Crimea depending on the model. 

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

This. The Canadian government says it has received no extradition request. The Polish official calling for extradition is known for bombastic public statements. It also seems unlikely he has any authority to extradite anyone given his job description: "In the fall of 2020, he was appointed minister of education and science, putting him in charge of  pre-school, general, special and vocational education in the country. He also oversees the approval of textbooks and issues related to the employment of teachers."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/yaroslav-hunka-poland-minister-extradite-1.6978266

Yeah, absolutelly terrible persona by the way, even by current standards, but not the guy to dictate anything. But it may be the case he was told to shut up cause no official confirmation yet of any request. So, proceed.

 

Wolski doing what he is best at; staring  at burn-out armour. Bradley ODS-SA destroyed, possibly somewhere in Zaporizhia (swicth-off sound if you use headphones, there is some loud Cossack-metal in the background).

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Japan is, as usually, ahead of the game:

Is it a genuine Ukrainian model without the 150 ERA blocks included?

Edited September 26, 2023 by Carolus

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Fernando said:

On some occasions I would give "the benefit of the doubt", as we say in Spain. People can evolve. Nobel Prize winner Günter Grass also served in the Waffen-SS (in the 10. SS-Panzer-Division "Frundsberg"), and I would not say that when he died that he was a Nazi, quite the opposite.

That said, given my experience suffering Catalan nationalism firsthand, any strong nationalist is suspect. The various forms of fascism are nothing more than nationalism taken to its ultimate (and aberrant) logical consequences.

 

Yesterday I mentioned Eric Hartmann, whose callsign Karaya has taken UKR pilot (clear sign he is hidden nazi! %) ). After 10 years of camps in USSR he became commander of FRG (already NATO-country) aviation unit and several times visited USA, where he was instructor of US pilots and tester of some types of US jet aircraft. 

Many of military strengts and technologies West got after the war from former Nazi scientists, engineers etc. 

Many of those, who fought against USSR and received a shelter in Westren countries, where used by CIA, Mi6 in those fight against communism as agents, influencers and diversants. And likley most of them should be mobilized to fight USSR in case of big war. And I doubt many journalists in that time rised a wave "Nazi! Nazi! We invite nazi! What a shame!"

Russian propaganda maybe will shout some time and shut up soon (who interested in their blah-blah-blah?), but this gift for them made not so Canadian Speaker, but local journalists.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

[Beleg85]

There are some early reports on both Russian and Ukrainian TG that very heavy artillery barrages are taking place now in Verbove and Novoprokorivka...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1706747173117768037

Ofc. treat very cautiosly.

[Haiduk]

Some info from UKR TGs

For Sep 25th from unofficial TG of 46th air-assault brigade:

Novoprokopivka is under enemy control. Clashes in grey zone between this village and Robptyne. Advancing here is problematic because we to this time couldn't take heights on east and south-east from the village, there are fierce clashes there. In present time we coudn't find a key to these positions. 

Verbove is under enemy control too. The fighting is ongoing on western outskirt of the village in lowland. We can take small part of Russian defense line west from the village, but without taking of heights south from Verbove this is just tactical success and it's impossible to take a foothold here. Orcs at the moment strike this area with aviation and artillery. We can't take heights because they are heavy fortified. So we are expanding bridgehead in lowlands near Verbove. 

Enemy aviation expanded strike zone on all wide of section and now has been strike as well actively near Verbove as near Robotyne. FPV drones are working continuously. Already even battles between drones took place. 

All combat actions had been reduced to small assault groups works with small usage of armored vehicles - this is due to continous work of aerial recon of both sides. Any movement - even a single armor movement is unvealed at once and being struck of artillery, FPV drones, aviation with both sides. If large armored group is spotted - there is maximum concentration of fire support assets on it. 

The enemy didn't reject from counter-attacks, wherein conducts its pointwise and in limited scale, groping our weak places.    

 

From Sep 26th form Officer+ TG:

Novoprokopivka and Verbove - we have small advance in village limits. Their liberation is a question of time, after this new opportunities will open. Special thanks to 82nd air-assault and 71st jager air-assault brigades  

Edited September 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Wolski doing what he is best at; staring  at burn-out armour. Bradley ODS-SA destroyed, possibly somewhere in Zaporizhia (swicth-off sound if you use headphones, there is some loud Cossack-metal in the background).

 

Wow.  The hull armor is broken and the roof appears to have collapsed.  It looks like something very big hit it and then a catastrophic fire did the rest. 

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

There are some early reports on both Russian and Ukrainian TG that very heavy artillery barrages are taking place now in Verbove and Novoprokorivka...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1706747173117768037

Ofc. treat very cautiosly.

Russian troops form the place refute claims about huge assault of UKR forces

Callsign OSETIN

There are no any surges. There was a skirmish near 6th regiment [LNR forces] positions and it already ended. No any huge artillery bombardment, no any assaults. From where it all came I don't know. Artillery and mortars are working, but they work every day from both sides. Do not panic, friends and do not make a "victory" 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR troops completely push off Russians behind railway line on southern flank of Bakhmut from Andriivka to Klishchhivka. Also in Kurdiumivka and near Andriivka areas UKR forces have taken Russian forward positions beyond railroad

 

According to Russian TG in last attempt to regain positions near Andriivka, Shorm Z convicts could gain foothold on Andrrivka outskirt, but VDV troops, which have to arrive to develop success were dispersed by UKR artillery fire, so all convicts were eliminated. 

Russians also write part of Wagners, who detached from new Wagner command already transferring to MoD units and soon will be moved to Bakhmut. Looks like Russian command has a lack of capable troops there, so MoD actively agitate Wagnerites to sign contarcts. Recently there was information Rosgvardiya is going to establish special units of former Wagnerites. 

New PMC Wagner commander "Lotos" summoned unpleasnatr of part of Wagner fighters, so they seek new places. Reportedly large number of former Wagnerites now in MoD PMC "Redut" and also prepare to new Bakhmut campaign.

[Harmon Rabb]

On 9/11/2023 at 8:01 PM, Fenris said:

Some out of the ordinary footage.  Seen from both first person and drone camera (with sub-titles)

Here's a link the full 13 minute video

https://twitter.com/73RDARM/status/1701334364817424587

Thirst for life. Story of a special ops soldier who fell from a boat and spent 14 hours floating in the open sea (Pravda.com.ua)

Just quoting this post again because I read an incredible story of survival from a Ukrainian who involved in this operation. Definitely worth a read if you have some time.

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

groping our weak places.   

"Show me on the map where the Russians touched you."

[Harmon Rabb]

This image is all over my Twitter feed. Looking forward to some info.

[sross112]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

Finally a believable Ukrainian connection to Nordstream 2!!!

[Dave2214]

I have run flats on my two BMWs and they don't ride as well a traditional tires, but they have a purpose. Like if who don't want get out of the car to change a tire at 9PM on a rainy night.

From a warfare POV, they make sense They are sort of like a track on the old type half track but quicker to replace if needed and less expensive I think.

Strykers are cool. When/if the battle ground opens up into breakthrough phase, there is nothing better than airpower.  But imagine 50 of those AFVs ranging across a narrow sector behind lines. Russia has no answer. 

David. 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Dave2214

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

My condolences to the RAF for losing that crewed Storm Shadow missile over Ukraine.

Well give the propagandists some credit for sticking with Gravity's Rainbow (in Russian translation) for that long.

Brentschluß!!!

Edited September 27, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[chris talpas]

58 minutes ago, Dave2214 said:

 

Strykers are cool. When/if the battle ground opens up into breakthrough phase, there is nothing better than airpower.  But imagine 50 of those AFVs ranging across a narrow sector behind lines. Russia has no answer. 

David. 

First person drones perhaps?  Not that I don’t think Strykers are cool.

[Dave2214]

37 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

irst person drones perhaps?  Not that I don’t think Strykers are cool.

I get it. But the idea is to win and end the war not with hypothetical systems. Does anyone think the retired USAF JSTARS could be of value for targeting? 

[Aragorn2002]

13 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

The article itself mentions that possibility, but not as the most likely one.

Some time ago I saw a Swedish or Danish documentary about how the Russia navy is monitoring energy installations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. It sounded a lot more convincing. We musn't forget that journalists can (and sometimes are) bought by the Russians and the FSB is a master of deception. Personally I don't give a damn about who did it. I always blame the Russians when something rotten happens and that's usually a safe bet.

[Aragorn2002]

15 hours ago, LuckyDog said:

It ties in so perfectly with the Russian talking point about the Ukrainians allegedly being Nazis and the opportunity to include Zelensky that I'm starting to wonder if the FSB had some influence in making this happen. Not that it shouldn't have been stopped, but why did someone think this was a good idea?

My thoughts exactly. A priceless propaganda stunt for Moscow. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

14 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Going out in style...just small video addition to recent tank discussion.

They should have changed the music to "Smoke on the water" by Deep Purple

[Pete Wenman]

 

Quote

At the start of Ukrainian's counteroffensive MoD said that Russia's line was stretched, with very few reserves. Now we learn an entire army (strength estimated elsewhere at 15k) was being held back but is now being committed. Whether that's to plug gaps or not, that's important

 

 

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Some time ago I saw a Swedish or Danish documentary about how the Russia navy is monitoring energy installations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. It sounded a lot more convincing. We musn't forget that journalists can (and sometimes are) bought by the Russians and the FSB is a master of deception. Personally I don't give a damn about who did it. I always blame the Russians when something rotten happens and that's usually a safe bet.

 

While all media has it's issues with bias at times, even public ones like NOS and Nieuwsuur, I feel it's more farfetched to think they area all (including their European partners) bought by FSB.
FWIW the investigative journalism on the side of Nieuwsuur / NOS is usually of a high level. These are publicly governed and funded news organizations providing among other things the public daily journals in The Netherlands (you know but not everyone here).

The information from the MIVD is also unlikely to be orchestrated by the FSB, unless one believes our military intelligence is compromised. 

Anyway, they don't rule out the Ukrainian assets where in some form used / orchestrated from Russia. Without having access to secrets we don't know how credible the MIVD itself think it's source is. Credible enough to act on it, that is for sure. 

Anyway I think it's dumb to look at this and think 'blablabla Russia is behind it and I won't believe anything else'. At the same time it would be dumb to conclude for certainty, at this time, that the Ukrainian leadership is behind this. There are still many possibilities, but as more information surfaces there is at least some doubt to be cast on the idea 'must be the Russian's. 
Therefore this again proves that it is always imperative to keep an open mind about uncertain things. 

 

Anyway, a 30min video about the findings (some of it is in Dutch):

https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/video/2491937-nord-stream-hoe-alle-sporen-leiden-naar-oekraine

 

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

 

 

Calling 15k troop strength an 'entire army' which had been 'missed', sounds a bit dramatized imo. Although obviously 15k troops reinforcing somewhere where one didn't expect them can be 'problem'.

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Lethaface

[Fenris]

20 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

 

 

Heh, the details paint a slightly different picture IMO. I don't think the MoD was actually wrong.  The 25th CAA was established a couple of months ago and wasn't due to finish it's training until December IIRC... So this reserve has only just been raised and did not exist at the start of the offensive.

I'm hopeful this means their usefulness is quite limited.

 

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Fenris