How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

@Haiduk @Kraft @Locke 'n' Load @L0ckAndL0ad and others

Pekka is a firm supporter and I appreciate his constant exposure of RUS stools and narrative through his "vatnick soup" series. Is this thread accurate? 

 

[kraze]

26 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk @Kraft @Locke 'n' Load @L0ckAndL0ad and others

Pekka is a firm supporter and I appreciate his constant exposure of RUS stools and narrative through his "vatnick soup" series. Is this thread accurate? 

 

it is accurate

and it is what ultimately saved Odesa from occupation. Because we didn't yet know how truly brutal collaborators and traitors will be.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good points, thanks for comments from an expert, but Galeev's feed discusses Germany+Switz.+Austria being unique today in terms of still having many highly skilled/artisanal (or even 'hobbyist') machinists. Russian industry today has far too few Poesels to make the quantities required!

Top-20 machining suppliers 2000-2021:

Galeev continues....

1. Complex weapons such as WMD/delivery systems include precise parts

2. Production of precise parts relies on subtractive processes [machining]

3. Which [machines] had overwhelmingly relied on  manual control even in 1991. In the Soviet era, military industry workers were aristocracy. They could be lavishly compensated, to the extent it created labor shortages in the civilian machinery (brains & hands drain to the military).

5. With the end of the Cold War, the output of weaponry dropped. Take tank production per year:

1985 - 3000

1996 - 5

2005 - 200, a very different scale of production.

5. Production at this scale has been radically computerized [using mainly Western European technology]

6. Labor capable of producing precise parts (-> weaponry) manually was lost [retired or laid off, without training up apprentices]. Once you lose the craftsmanship, doing it the old way again is no longer viable.

7. ...Resulting in a massive loss in production capacities and a surprising discontinuity in production processes.

Soviet methods (accent on casting, pressing, etc.) require much, much higher initial capital investments. Also fixed costs were higher. But it produced weaponry in huge volumes unbeatably cheaply.

Soviet Union had a huge machine tool industry of very uneven quality. Machines looted from Germany were still used in the 2000s in aerospace. Even today there is a huge park of Soviet-produced machines based on ancient German designs (1930s). But there is no one to operate them. Grandpas died and knowledge died with them

8. This [discontinuity] did not really attract public attention until this war

....The aircraft industry is atypical. Aircraft production for export fared well even through the 90s [exception: strategic bombers]

****

https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1675609243783667714#m

Modern hardware and software allows to operate with poorly paid largely semi-skilled labor. There may be some destruction, yes. If an executive [today] spends money on machines, it's great. If he increases salaries, state controllers will devour him. 

****

https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1679888626090487809#m

[In contrast to Russia] Switzerland is a giant. Their industry is based upon:

1. Mature mechanical engineering

2. Innovative digital control technology

3. Continuous tradition of craftsmanship

You [e.g. China] may try to develop (1) and (2). But you cannot acquire (3) anytime soon. That is just impossible

...Craftsman expertise is real, very difficult to pick and impossible to fake. One of the most destructive effects of the post-Soviet collapse on the Russian military production was the loss of craftsmanship -> tacit knowledge. Sometimes you can reverse engineer technology later. Sometimes you can't. Anyway, much of it has been lost irreversibly.

...So much of 20th c technology now appears to be a Black Box. While this effect is especially pronounced in the post-USSR that has gone through a semi-apocalyptic crisis, the Black Box pattern is in fact global.

Making [factories] absolutely dependent upon CAD-CAM-CNC technology

****

Seems word is getting out though,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/ukraine-asks-germany-to-halt-ammunition-tool-headed-for-russia

 

I agree with all of this, but it leaves out the obvious and necessary next step. There needs to be a large scale effort to actively feed the Russians bad parts, and corrupted software. If a bunch of their CNC machines just suddenly decided to crash their tools heads catastrophically, or a bunch of there own cruise missiles turned around and headed for Moscow, it would materially damage the entire Russian war effort as vast effort would have to be expended to keep it from happening again.

[paxromana]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I agree with all of this, but it leaves out the obvious and necessary next step. There needs to be a large scale effort to actively feed the Russians bad parts, and corrupted software. If a bunch of their CNC machines just suddenly decided to crash their tools heads catastrophically, or a bunch of there own cruise missiles turned around and headed for Moscow, it would materially damage the entire Russian war effort as vast effort would have to be expended to keep it from happening again.

Stuxnet Mk 2?

Or maybe Skynet! 

[LongLeftFlank]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If a bunch of their own cruise missiles turned around and headed for Moscow, it would materially damage the entire Russian war effort

 

Rock it!

[Centurian52]

23 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

Aww man, I go away to drill for the weekend and I missed the BattleTech discursion? Steve, when can we get Combat Mission: BattleTech?

 

Back to the main topic, yet another ChrisO thread on how crappy life is in the Russian Armed Forces. I honestly don't know how they keep fighting. 

 

I guess when you're out of artillery ammunition the artillerymen become the ammunition

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk @Kraft @Locke 'n' Load @L0ckAndL0ad and others

Pekka is a firm supporter and I appreciate his constant exposure of RUS stools and narrative through his "vatnick soup" series. Is this thread accurate? 

 

Kraze already confirmed the accuracy of this, but I can chime in and say I remember ALL of these details very well.  I was following the events of the late Maidan period through 2015 almost as closely as I do this war.  Which is... well, a lot of time

The events in Odessa started as Russia stepped up pressure on Yanukovych to counteract the Maidan movement.  Then, when Yanukovych fled the country, Russia increased the level of violence.  Because that's what Russia always does when Russia doesn't get what it wants.

One of the things that is under stated in this report is where all the pro-Russians were coming from.  Many were being bussed in from Russia.  They consisted of football hooligans, bikers, most likely Russian special services, and of course run-of-the-mill macho tough guys (the type that would join Wagner, for example).  These guys even came with their own pipes, baseball bats, and other homemade weapons.  Corrupt and/or pro-Russian Ukrainian border guards let them through even though it was absolutely clear what their intentions were.  These guys were often derisively called "tourists" at the time because that was how the Russians excused their presence.  As in "hey, they aren't paid thugs of our regime, they are just tourists".

The call sign for the AK shooter, Vitaly Budko, was "Botsman".  From what I remember he was, as so many other pro-Russian Ukrainians were at the time, a local mafia figure tied in with the larger network of Ukrainian and Russian organized crime.  I just checked and the last that was heard from him was, apparently, escaping to Russian occupied Transnistria.

These "tourists" went to other places, such as Kharkiv and Mariupol, to do the same sorts of things.  However, Odessa was the big one.  Which makes strategic sense because if Russia could topple Odessa, then taking over everything between there and Russia would be easier.  Conversely, taking over Mariupol would not have had as much benefit on taking over Odessa.

Steve

[Centurian52]

20 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Leopard 1A5 in UKR service. Alas, Florks will be dissapointed - it's turned out engine of Leo1 can't carry additional weight of ERA so far. 

Darn. And I was so looking forward to seeing some Leopard 1A5Vs

[Centurian52]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, that is nice!

At the very least it was probably attacked, which gets us to a rather interesting point in this war... Ukraine is finally able to systematically go after Russia's navy at port and at sea, near and far away.  It won't take long to cripple Russia's naval capabilities.

I wonder how long it will take Ukraine to go after the transport ships that reportedly moved into the Sea of Azov.  As discussed before, those are extremely high value targets as their loss could cripple Russia's work around for rail/road disruptions in/out of Crimea.

Steve

The pounding that the Russian Black Sea fleet has been taking recently may force me to reevaluate what a siege of Crimea might look like. I had assumed that even with the land bridge cut and the Kerch bridge destroyed the Russians would still receive a trickle of supplies by sea. If the Ukrainians can cripple the Russian navy in the Black Sea then incoming supplies for the Russians might not just be severely constricted, but reduced to zero.

[Centurian52]

16 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Even if RU lost Bakhmut it just doesn't matter operationally or strategically.

It would matter politically. Probably not so much that Russian information operations couldn't cope. But it would put additional stress on the Russian information space.

Come to think of it, the Russian information space could probably come up with a way to spin the loss of the Kerch bridge, or the land bridge, or any of a number of single blows. But could you imagine if the Ukrainians took Bakhmut, dropped the Kerch bridge, and cut the land corridor all one after the other? With each blow falling just as Russian propaganda is getting its story straight for the previous blow it might just get overwhelmed. Even the most ardent ultranationalist might struggle to cling to their belief in final victory.

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

It would matter politically. Probably not so much that Russian information operations couldn't cope. But it would put additional stress on the Russian information space.

Come to think of it, the Russian information space could probably come up with a way to spin the loss of the Kerch bridge, or the land bridge, or any of a number of single blows. But could you imagine if the Ukrainians took Bakhmut, dropped the Kerch bridge, and cut the land corridor all one after the other? With each blow falling just as Russian propaganda is getting its story straight for the previous blow it might just get overwhelmed. Even the most ardent ultranationalist might struggle to cling to their belief in final victory.

Absolutely.  Symbolism in conflicts matter.  Sometimes a lot.  Bakhmut was turned into a symbol by both sides, which means even if Russians completely ignore its loss it would be huge for Ukraine's morale and sense of direction.

Russia is at a severe disadvantage in this sphere.  Pretty much anything of significance that Ukraine does helps reinforce the sense that Russia can be defeated.  Even the loss of Bakhmut was, correctly, portrayed by pro-Ukrainians as a victory because it showed how inept and wasteful Russia was in taking it.  Costly victory?  Sure, but still seen as a victory.  Retaking Bakhmut gives Ukraine a second victory.

On the Russian side, by they time they finally took Bakhmut there was no thrill to be had.  Those paying attention barely celebrated because they knew it was a hollow victory.  Losing Bakhmut not only is a headline grabbing event in Ukraine's favor, but it also means even the hollow victory was taken from them.

Asymmetrical situation definitely in Ukraine's favor.  As stated above, that are inherently lopsided in favor of Ukraine.  Kerch bridge being a big one.

Steve

[akd]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk @Kraft @Locke 'n' Load @L0ckAndL0ad and others

Pekka is a firm supporter and I appreciate his constant exposure of RUS stools and narrative through his "vatnick soup" series. Is this thread accurate? 

Wait, did ZOKA turn at some point, or is this parody?

 

[Carolus]

49 minutes ago, akd said:

Wait, did ZOKA turn at some point, or is this parody?

 

Mhmmm. The account says "once a Russia supporter, now a fighter for truth". 

No idea if they turned, got hacked, or if someone made a very similar account after the original got banned or deleted.

Imagine having out own Scott Ritter type who can tell how much Russia is manipulating the Western infosphere. Just with less exposure to minors.

[Seedorf81]

Had to look twice, because I couldn't comprehend what I saw on CNN ticker:

"Russian peacekeepers evacuate people from Nagorno-Karabach".

Talk about the best example of an oxymoron..

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Azerbeidzjan attacks Ngorno-Karabach.

Air attacks, border-crossings.

Even Russia "concerned" about this escalation.

More news on the widening conflict(s) in Europe:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

Stuxnet Mk 2?

Or maybe Skynet! 

Or simply sell them massive quantities of methanol vodka. If blinding the enemy worked for Basil the Bulgar-Slayer....

[Kinophile]

 

 

[_Morpheus_]

Daily business of the Medic from the 3-rd Assault Brigade in Bakhmut (looks like it's from the last year or so)

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

More news on the widening conflict(s) in Europe:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975

Yeah that's going to be another genocide we get to watch and will do nothing about.

Thought apparently Armenia is now supported by US and Iran, while Azerbaijan is supported by Turkey (they can't miss in Armenian genocide) and Russia. Fascinating bedfellows.

It won't help the people of course.

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk @Kraft @Locke 'n' Load @L0ckAndL0ad and others

Pekka is a firm supporter and I appreciate his constant exposure of RUS stools and narrative through his "vatnick soup" series. Is this thread accurate? 

 

Enough accurate, though he skipped details of street clashes before pro-UKR forces came to Trade Union House. He also didn't tell pro-Russians not only threw Molotovs from the roof of House, but shot with firearms (pistol or hunting rifle), killing and wounding several pro-UKR activsts.  

Odesa, Zaporizhzia, Mykolaiv, Kherson oblasts were saved from Donbas/Crimea scenario due to active resistanse of more organized pro-Ukrainian citizens, when police either withdrew itself from own duties under the pretext "do not escalate" or secretly or directrly like in Odesa took pro-Russian side. Though, only in Odesa all was so violent, in other cities the level of pro-Russian uprising was very minor and all ended maximum with facebeating.  

Most originally separatism was suffocated in Zaporizhzhia. A handful of vatniks who dared to came on meeting for "Zaporizhzhia People Republic" under cover of police just was surrounded by pro-UKR people and they were pelted with eggs and flours.

This humilitation of "Russian world" lasted several hours, if pro-UKR activists would have also feathers, that pro-Rusian participants would became look like Guybrush Tripwood from Monkey Island 3 "Do you have a.... MADRE DE DIOS! El Polo Diablo!!!"

This action got the name "Egg Sunday" 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Darn. And I was so looking forward to seeing some Leopard 1A5Vs

It's claimed 1A5DK. The same tank from previous photo, but in camo net.

I've read today Ukriane rejected to take 10 Leo 1A5 from Germany, becausae they were in very bad technical conditins. Also reportedly several Leo 1A5, which came to service already have broken down.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I've read today Ukriane rejected to take 10 Leo 1A5 from Germany, becausae they were in very bad technical conditins. Also reportedly several Leo 1A5, which came to service already have broken down.

The maintainability aspect of equipment is such a huge deal. Whether you want a large crew that is highly trained, or you have repair depots close to the front, for a big complex piece of machinery it is going to require a lot of maintenance.

The smaller and simpler a machine is, the better in many ways- especially if the complexity can be pushed on the weapons system (ex Himars) or software in general.

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

More news on the widening conflict(s) in Europe:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975

Calling Azerbaijan a European country is a bit of a stretch...

[Haiduk]

Completely mysterious video - Russian drone attacks UKR Dolhintseve airfield (5 km east from Kryvyi Rih) and damaged MiG-29 (or it decoy). This airfield located just in 67 km from closest Russian-held territory.

You can read active discussion in comments with wide spectre of opinions from this is cool CGI to this was real attack. 

First of all, we have to throw out arguments about satellite maps show abandoned airfield. This is 2018 year,  later Dolhintese was reсonstructed

But quality of picture really looks like 3D render, though it can be just compression artifacts.  

What more questionable - a difference of angles of attack from drone "eyes" and from controling UAV

Maybe later some UKR unofficial source will tell more what was it, but no matter was this real MiG-29 or decoy (I doubt Air Force command kept value combat planes on airfield in range of Smerch or Tornado-S salvo). now we can suppose next:

1. Russians now have Lancet-type drone, capable to fly over 70 km

2. Or this was some experimental aerial Lancet-carrier (Orion for example)

3. Or this was diversion group sneaked on UKR territory (90 % fantastic, but...)

4. Or this is old video of 2022, when Russian really were very close to Kryvyi Rih (about 40 km), but then anyway it would be suicidal to keep aircraft on this airfield.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

Exclusive: Ukraine’s special services ‘likely’ behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says (CNN)

War expands to the African continent? Hey @Haiduk, since you are our local expert on the Ukrainian military have you heard anything about this?