How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Teufel]

More progress around Bakhmut.

 

[TheVulture]

10 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Privileged to be in company of specialists like yourself. Next case for expert opinion coming up (if true). This thing just got repurposed to be used as submarine.

 

Wikipedia humour is quick off the mark:

[Ultradave]

12 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Privileged to be in company of specialists like yourself. Next case for expert opinion coming up (if true). This thing just got repurposed to be used as submarine.

 

Excellent! Although from Russia's standpoint, not an optimal operating mode for that asset. 

Dave

[TheVulture]

On the subject of intelligence ships, has anyone come across any further news on the Ivan Khurs that was hit back in May, It made it back to Sevastopol under its own power and without serious visible external damage. but that was the last I've been able to find. At the time, Russia said it would resupply and return to patrols soon, but I've not been able to find any mention of whether it left port again (under the circumstances, I'd have imagined that Russia would make at least something of a show of it setting out again to show that it was back in service). 

I'm curious as to whether it did get back to sea, or has been stuck in Sevastopol for the last 4 months for repairs.

[Teufel]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Wikipedia humour is quick off the mark:

Haha! That is genius!

Believe it or not, didn’t see that one before posting but great work of reference!

[Teufel]

Speaking of genius, this comment is up there with the good folks at Wikipedia;

“thats 3 divisions worth of units...  why should the ukr army do a "break out" if the russians are bringing the the units to the ukr forces to kill...”

Witnessing train crash in slow motion, everyone is expecting the blitz of last fall in Kharkiv 2022. Shall we be paying attention to the potential crash across the board. Not suggesting Putin is giving up tomorrow but plenty of events shaping up to compounding bad news for Russians.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

Winter is coming, and quickly at that.

 

[Carolus]

41 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Speaking of genius, this comment is up there with the good folks at Wikipedia;

“thats 3 divisions worth of units...  why should the ukr army do a "break out" if the russians are bringing the the units to the ukr forces to kill...”

Witnessing train crash in slow motion, everyone is expecting the blitz of last fall in Kharkiv 2022. Shall we be paying attention to the potential crash across the board. Not suggesting Putin is giving up tomorrow but plenty of events shaping up to compounding bad news for Russians.

Obviously not every unit will be in the same sorry state as e.g. the 94th rgt was described in terms of equipment (and the Russian units placed under LNR and DNR command seem to be treated the worst outside of penal units), but if Russia continues to go for massed frontal counterattacks for every position lost due to a nonsensical "No-Step-Back" policy or something like it, instead of playing defense in depth and digging in, this would be simply...

... well at this point, I can only call it simply so very Russian. 

And I can only hope this continues as long as the AFU can stem the tide. This gets rid of one the biggest assets Russia has, and it is their force multiplier through static prepared defenses.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Carolus

[Centurian52]

On 9/17/2023 at 1:22 PM, Battlefront.com said:

That said, the Kadyrovites seem to find the current arrangement more-or-less acceptable.  As I've said since the start of the war, that might change if the trainloads of money headed south are reduced.  At that point, it's anybody's guess.

Interesting that you say that. Money is one thing (along with tank and artillery stockpiles) that this war is running down fairly quickly.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Teufel said:

Privileged to be in company of specialists like yourself. Next case for expert opinion coming up (if true). This thing just got repurposed to be used as submarine.

 

Is it just me or has the Russian Navy been taking a lot of hits lately.  Maybe the whole ground war was a distraction and the maritime war was the offensive?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russian Ministry of Labour and Social Protection ordered 230 000 certificates for family members "of killed (died) war invalids, Great Patriotic War participants or combat actions participants". Obviously most of new certificates relates to latter category. Also since June these certificates also will be issued not only for members of killed regular army soldiers, but also for those, who were lost in different volunteer units (PMCs and Shtorm Z are questinable). Ministry of Defense will get 200 000 certificates and 30 000 Ministry of Labour and Social Protection. 

Last ordering of these certificates was in May - for 23716 persons.

But this 200 000 is not equal to 200 000 killed in Ukraine! Certificates can receive father and mother of soldier, his wife and children under 23. So, this number you have to divide on four or five. 

Total from beginning of war Ministry of Labour and Social Protection already ordered 936052 certificates of combatants. 600 000 of them for MoD, 60 000 - Ministry of Internal Affairs, 10 000 - Rosgvardiya, Ministry of Social Protection - 85 000, Ministry of Building - 500. 

Article in Russian: https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/09/18/pravitelstvo-zakazalo-230-tisyach-udostoverenii-dlya-semei-pogibshih-na-voine-a107249

ChrisO has a good thread on this:

One bottomline number that seems to be 1:1 is the certificates for combat veterans.  According to ChisO:

"So far, Mintrud has ordered a total of 936,052 certificates for combat veterans during the war."

It is unclear if this includes PMCs, but the internal distribution of the certificates indicates prisoners are counted.  At least I'm guessing that prisoners are being counted as part of the Ministry of Social Protection number as it is quite large (86,805) and about what I'd expect for prisoner headcount.

In any case, this seems to show that Russia has cycled about 1m individuals through Ukraine over the course of the war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Interesting that you say that. Money is one thing (along with tank and artillery stockpiles) that this war is running down fairly quickly.

Yes, exactly.  I don't think Chechnya is first on the regime's budget cutting list, but with revenue down and military expenses up, it doesn't take a math genius to know that the Regime will have to cut somewhere.  Generally kleptocratic states cut their own needs last and without the military spending the regime will collapse.  Therefore, I see payments to Kadyrov's people continuing, but the amount of money that they can spread around to keep people in Chechnya from grumbling will be less over time.  That could put pressure on Kadyrov's leadership which might then put pressure on the regime for special treatment.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Nothing much new here, mostly more talk about UKR recent successes around Bakhmut.  but do I care about these little towns that lead nowhere?  All I think think of is the Steve maxim in play "kill russians".  And RU seems to be doing their best to get men and material destroyed attacked to recapture.... nothing???  Even if RU lost Bakhmut it just doesn't matter operationally or strategically.  Just like it didn't matter last winter when RU ran suicidal offensive to capture.... nothing.   WTF is in Putin's head that he would do this, over & over & over & over again.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/18/2194032/-Ukraine-update-Bakhmut-is-once-again-the-hottest-spot-on-the-front-lines

Interesting story about RU soldiers w/o proper weapons.  If that were generally true UKR would already be at the coast, so I take all of those 'shovel' stories w a grain of salt.  I do believe these stories might be true, but on a very small scale else there'd be a lot more territory lost.

I worry about mobilization allowing Putin to fill the trenches w armed mobiks.  Hopefully they will be very poorly provisioned for wet, cold weather.  I thought same thing last winter, so don't want to get my hopes too high.

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Is it just me or has the Russian Navy been taking a lot of hits lately.  Maybe the whole ground war was a distraction and the maritime war was the offensive?

Okay now, we've put Engies firmly in their place. Let's not open a rusty can of weevils and start giving the fish-botherers undue credit and attention... 

[GAZ NZ]

Regarding the death of the British foreign national

Take with a grain of salt but according to his friends he was alledgey killed by an Australian national who did it or was involved 

Concerns the financial reasons could cause further issues 

From multiple interviews I've listened to there is a systemic problem with corruption there that has been identified.  Ongoing it could cause issues with the war effort.  This is noted here.

Also the Chechnya leader may be dead

Reported he may have died in hospital 

Unclear if this has happened and what will be the outcome

Will they leave Russia? 

Edited September 19, 2023 by GAZ NZ

[cesmonkey]

Slightly off-topic, but interesting:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Yup, well aware of this.  International Legion has had bad problems right from the start and it doesn't seem to have gotten any better as the war has worn on.  I've at times been pretty critical of their conduct in this war.  The latest allegations are pretty nasty.  I hope this high profile incident finally gets the Ukrainian MoD to take action.

Sadly, murders happen even in Western armies in both war and peace times.  There's been quite a few scandals in the US military over the years of service personnel murdering each other over sex, drugs, and/or money.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.rusi.org/podcasts/war-in-space/episode-32-natos-air-and-space-lessons-ukraine

---

Air Marshal Johnny Stringer, Deputy Commander of NATO's Allied Air Command at Ramstein Air Base, explains why air superiority matters and why access to space and the capabilities it enables is so important.

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000628331476

Admiral Radikin having a chat as well, the Brits seem to be on a bit of a press tour.

 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Teufel said:

Privileged to be in company of specialists like yourself. Next case for expert opinion coming up (if true). This thing just got repurposed to be used as submarine.

 

Usual hype and unverified info. This ship was attacked as far as on 14th of September, but was just damaged. Allegedly damaged. Author of this tweet wrote this in later comment, but too late- a "sensation" already flies around internet

Edited September 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Teufel]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Usual hype and unverified info. This ship was attacked as far as on 14th of September, but was just damaged. Allegedly damaged. Author of this tweet wrote this in later comment, but too late- a "sensation" already flies around internet

To quote myself one more time;

“What is this?! I come here to express my uniformed opinions, not have people throwing facts around and saying it’s wrong. I'm out of here!”

To be little bit more serious, this is why we are here, share information, opinions, debunk BS, etc. Nothing personal against anyone, propaganda goes both ways and I am all for calling out both sides.

However, without countering Russian exaggerations we got ourselves masses eating out of their hands. Keep the ships sinking, even if they float.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Teufel

[cesmonkey]

 

[Letter from Prague]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Is it just me or has the Russian Navy been taking a lot of hits lately.  Maybe the whole ground war was a distraction and the maritime war was the offensive?

Well, Russia said "end of the grain deal, we are blockading you" so it makes sense Ukraine is being like "No, you don't".

Also, imagine they do take Tokmak and cut the rail, and also blow the Kerch bridge. Would be fun if Russia turned to ships for supplying Crime and found out most of them has been blown up a while ago.

When Russians supplied the Kherson pocket using barges, they always included some civilians as human shields, so that if Ukrainians blow them up, they can use that as PR. Blowing the ships up beforehand sidesteps this issue.

All and all, I think the Ukrainians are just thinking ahead.

[LongLeftFlank]

22 hours ago, poesel said:

5-axis milling is easily in hobbyist range. Machining tolerances are mostly a function of how good your linear bearings are and China has some decent ones. If you have the money you can mill turbine parts in your basement.

...

Unfortunately, once this kind of machine is set up it doesn‘t need much specialised maintenance. You get the consumables from everywhere including the tools and the control software runs well enough without need for an update.

TL;DR: the manufacturers of those machines cannot do much after it has been delivered.

Good points, thanks for comments from an expert, but Galeev's feed discusses Germany+Switz.+Austria being unique today in terms of still having many highly skilled/artisanal (or even 'hobbyist') machinists. Russian industry today has far too few Poesels to make the quantities required!

Top-20 machining suppliers 2000-2021:

Galeev continues....

1. Complex weapons such as WMD/delivery systems include precise parts

2. Production of precise parts relies on subtractive processes [machining]

3. Which [machines] had overwhelmingly relied on  manual control even in 1991. In the Soviet era, military industry workers were aristocracy. They could be lavishly compensated, to the extent it created labor shortages in the civilian machinery (brains & hands drain to the military).

5. With the end of the Cold War, the output of weaponry dropped. Take tank production per year:

1985 - 3000

1996 - 5

2005 - 200, a very different scale of production.

5. Production at this scale has been radically computerized [using mainly Western European technology]

6. Labor capable of producing precise parts (-> weaponry) manually was lost [retired or laid off, without training up apprentices]. Once you lose the craftsmanship, doing it the old way again is no longer viable.

7. ...Resulting in a massive loss in production capacities and a surprising discontinuity in production processes.

Soviet methods (accent on casting, pressing, etc.) require much, much higher initial capital investments. Also fixed costs were higher. But it produced weaponry in huge volumes unbeatably cheaply.

Soviet Union had a huge machine tool industry of very uneven quality. Machines looted from Germany were still used in the 2000s in aerospace. Even today there is a huge park of Soviet-produced machines based on ancient German designs (1930s). But there is no one to operate them. Grandpas died and knowledge died with them

8. This [discontinuity] did not really attract public attention until this war

....The aircraft industry is atypical. Aircraft production for export fared well even through the 90s [exception: strategic bombers]

****

https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1675609243783667714#m

Modern hardware and software allows to operate with poorly paid largely semi-skilled labor. There may be some destruction, yes. If an executive [today] spends money on machines, it's great. If he increases salaries, state controllers will devour him. 

****

https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1679888626090487809#m

[In contrast to Russia] Switzerland is a giant. Their industry is based upon:

1. Mature mechanical engineering

2. Innovative digital control technology

3. Continuous tradition of craftsmanship

You [e.g. China] may try to develop (1) and (2). But you cannot acquire (3) anytime soon. That is just impossible

...Craftsman expertise is real, very difficult to pick and impossible to fake. One of the most destructive effects of the post-Soviet collapse on the Russian military production was the loss of craftsmanship -> tacit knowledge. Sometimes you can reverse engineer technology later. Sometimes you can't. Anyway, much of it has been lost irreversibly.

...So much of 20th c technology now appears to be a Black Box. While this effect is especially pronounced in the post-USSR that has gone through a semi-apocalyptic crisis, the Black Box pattern is in fact global.

Making [factories] absolutely dependent upon CAD-CAM-CNC technology

****

Seems word is getting out though,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/ukraine-asks-germany-to-halt-ammunition-tool-headed-for-russia

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Seedorf81]

Azerbeidzjan attacks Ngorno-Karabach.

Air attacks, border-crossings.

Even Russia "concerned" about this escalation.