How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

15 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Luckily, their current counteroffensive in the North-East looks more like Operation Anus, so it looks like they are learning slower.

Heh

[cesmonkey]

Another podcast episode if you need something to listen to for the weekend:

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Probably Azerbaijan will try to take whole territory of Nagornyi Karabakh and esatblish land corridor between Karabakh and Nakhichevan authonomy enclave.

Interestingly, Azerbaijan said it will reopen the highway between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

https://www.politico.eu/article/azerbaijan-agrees-to-reopen-lachin-corridor-to-nagorno-karabakh/

The conflict between these two countries has been one of the earliest and most consistent signs of Russia's weakness in keeping it's old Near Abroad under its thumb.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Mashovets' update had this to say about Russian artillery:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1200
 

Quote

3. Well, in conclusion... several current artillery reports... about both mentioned directions...

- In the Tokmak direction, the enemy command by order prohibited the commanders/chiefs of the relevant formations, units and units from the intensive use of artillery weapons without proper support means of electronic reconnaissance (RTR), electronic warfare (EW) and the availability of relevant data for firing generated by instrumental artillery reconnaissance...

In short, the times of thoughtless firing “somewhere there” for Russian artillery “sank into oblivion”... It also contained a categorical requirement to maneuver with forces and means (change of positional area) exclusively at night and “to implement effective measures to camouflage fire positions, locations of personnel and replenishment of armored personnel"...

- In the Berdyansk direction there is more and more objective confirmation of information about the active use by the enemy of 152-mm caliber artillery ammunition for cannon artillery, made in China. Thus, the command of the artillery division of the enemy’s 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade is actively discussing options for “getting Chinese cucumbers.”

The fact is that the command of the Russian artillery units, realizing the fact that their artillery systems are inferior in range to the Ukrainian ones, when using standard Russian-made ammunition, are trying to overcome this threshold by using Chinese analogues - “we, the Chinese, are getting all this crap out of here... this"...

However, at present, the desires of Russian artillerymen do not fully coincide with the capabilities of their supply authorities... "Chinese cucumbers" are clearly in short supply...

 

 

[FancyCat]

O.o

Quote

1/ Russia has serious fuel shortages affecting food production. Agriculture minister pushes for priorization of field work or it's a disaster.

2/ For example, Rostov region had only 38% of required diesel for agriculture on September 4th.

 

[Letter from Prague]

It does sound too good to be true, but if someone in the world is dumb enough to prioritize fuel for needless war instead of for food, it is Putin and his regime.

[paxromana]

15 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

It does sound too good to be true, but if someone in the world is dumb enough to prioritize fuel for needless war instead of for food, it is Putin and his regime.

IF this twitter thread is to be believed ...

... th situation is very much worse for Russia than just fuel shortages in agriculture ... their whole transport infrastructure is, well, fcuked ... and more and more of their logistic system will be affected by being worn out ... 

The thread is very informative ... the whole Russian situation is descending into a complete shambles.

[Offshoot]

Rostov is right next to Ukraine so I can well believe that fuel is being appropriated at all levels towards the war. A producer and exporter of fuel should still be able to compensate, but I have no doubt there are multiple layers of corruption in the way.

Unfortunately for Russia, Rostov is one of their highest producing regions - https://www.revistaespacios.com/a20v41n03/20410313.html
 

Quote

 

The Rostov Region has been ranked 2nd among Russian regions in the agricultural production for a long time, being one of the leaders in gross yield of grain, sunflower, and other crops. According to the results of the All-Russian Agricultural Census 2016, the Rostov Region ranked first among the regions of Russia in the harvest of oilseeds (Rostovstat, 2018). In 2018, the Rostov Region took the fifth place in the Russian Federation and the second place in the Southern Federal District in milk production, the region’s share in the national volume of milk production being 3.5%.

Today, the share of agriculture in the Rostov Region in Russian agricultural production is 5%, and in the Southern Federal District – 30%. Thus, the Rostov Region is one of the main regions of the Russian Federation capable of ensuring food security of Russia. The national food security is currently based on the import substitution of important products such as vegetables and meat (Semenenko, Afanasieva and Kaplunova, 2018).

 

Food shortages could lead to price rises and flour prices have helped to trigger revolutions before.

[Mike Churchmoor]

Quite nice news article by Yle (the Finnish public service media company) mainly about Russian's military bases near Finland, but also equipment sent to Ukraine:

https://yle.fi/a/74-20049340

 

[paxromana]

25 minutes ago, Mike Churchmoor said:

Quite nice news article by Yle (the Finnish public service media company) mainly about Russian's military bases near Finland, but also equipment sent to Ukraine:

https://yle.fi/a/74-20049340

Potemkin Villages?

Who's to say they aren't mostly or completely empty?

The Russians are pretty good at that sort of thing ...

Edited September 10, 2023 by paxromana

[Astrophel]

19 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is all very true, but the West has been trying to combat Russian disinformation and propaganda for decades.  Recently it was, and to some extent still is, having difficulties combating it even within its own populations.  I don't think there's anything the West can do to effectively change the situation any, other than Putin's regime collapsing and a new regime (at some point) coming about that cares about making the lives of Russians better.

Fortunately, propaganda can only do so much.  At some point, far longer than we'd like, Russia's economy will collapse and with it both the ability and the will to keep fighting.  Which is why we are stuck having to "wait this out" and outlast Russia until this happens.  Fortunately, Ukraine is the most important element in making this happen and they are not showing signs of knuckling under.  Even if the US Republican Party suddenly got a clue, and stopped smoking their own propaganda, if Ukraine gave up it before Russia did this war would be over.  Russia would still have lost, and lost hugely, but Ukraine giving up first would mean it agreeing to concessions that it should never have to make.

Steve

One lesson from the second world war is that telling the truth helps stiffen resistance and incite rebellion.  People in occupied Europe would often cite the BBC broadcasts very positively, and for many years afterwards.  There was an internal struggle with manipulative elements who wanted the BBC to tell black propaganda, but the long-lasting reputation was earned by being more reliable and truthful than the German alternative.  The BBC World Service took over the task of telling the truth to many oppressed nations around the world and in their own languages but was gradually diminished until 2016, when someone saw the wisdom of the channel, but investment has been meagre in reality.

In 18 months of following this conflict closely I have yet to hear one mention of the BBC focussing in on discontent in russian provinces, supporting the occupied territories in ukraine, or increased investment of any kind.  Nor is there any attempt to communicate via new media channels.  Similarly with the American versions.  And while Britain does not count for much these days, the level of anti-American propaganda reverberating around the world is deafening.

Russians need to learn what is being done in their name, and that there is NO reason to fear Nato or USA.  Russian soldiers need to embrace the surrender option.  People in the occupied territories need to get more sensible advice than currently emanates from Kyiv.

Contradicting russian propaganda is very low key.  The BBC is still embarrassed to say that russia lies.  The EU has a fact checker web-site but only geeks like myself know where to find it.  Most normal people feel there are usually two sides to every story and reach for balance, giving credit to the russian narrative.  Poor old russia, genuinely scared of nato expansion, how can we help them feel less afraid?

For humanity to survive we have to re-establish the value of truth.  There are no two sides to climate change and there are no two sides to russian genocide.  India cannot sit on the fence while owning 20% of the world population,  most of whom still **** on the railway tracks if they get the chance because there is a special **** sweeper railway train.

Let's start being honest with each other.

Hopefully even the russians can choose between right and wrong when properly informed.  Otherwise we are all doomed.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Astrophel

[chuckdyke]

Beethoven's Fifth Symphony   DOT DOT DOT DASH or the letter V. Far better than the Z for Zilch.

[kraze]

25 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Russians need to learn what is being done in their name, and that there is NO reason to fear Nato or USA.  Russian soldiers need to embrace the surrender option.  People in the occupied territories need to get more sensible advice than currently emanates from Kyiv.

Russians know what is being done in their name. In fact that's why they hired putin to do it in the first place.

Russian soldiers don't want to surrender because surrender means inability to kill, loot, rape and torture human beings. Why would they want to deny themselves things they want and reasons they are here?

Sensible advice that emanates from Kyiv to people on occupied territories is to survive at any cost short of treason. There's nothing else they can do.

For someone who follows the war closely for 18 months you seem to not follow it close enough.

[Grossman]

US getting closer to a decision on ATACMs.  

Given the G20 closing statement, clearly the war won't be won by diplomacy, it has to be won on the battlefield. Hardly surprising to see more hardware support forthcoming. 

A report in the London FT

Joe Biden is nearing a decision on sending long-range missiles to Kyiv, potentially opening another chapter in US military support for Ukraine more than a year and a half into Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country.  The US has long been wary of Ukraine’s request to supply it with so-called ATACMS, a tactical ballistic missile with a range of up to 300km, over concerns about limited stocks and whether it could be used to strike Russian territory, escalating the conflict.  But in recent months, as the war has dragged on and Ukraine has tried to regain territory in the southern and eastern regions of the country, the US has been considering the step. The UK and France have already sent their own long-range missiles to Ukraine this year.  “We’re not taking anything off the table. We don’t have a decision to announce on new capabilities but our position all along has been we will get Ukraine the capabilities that will enable it to succeed on the battlefield,” Jon Finer, the deputy national security adviser, told reporters as Biden travelled from New Delhi to Vietnam on Sunday. “A decision could be coming soon,” one senior Biden administration official had said on Saturday.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

IF this twitter thread is to be believed ...

... th situation is very much worse for Russia than just fuel shortages in agriculture ... their whole transport infrastructure is, well, fcuked ... and more and more of their logistic system will be affected by being worn out ... 

The thread is very informative ... the whole Russian situation is descending into a complete shambles.

And yet not entirely surprising.  To sustain national infrastructure, let alone a war footing situation, you need: people, money and information.  These are the things that keep infrastructure working and energy moving to feed that infrastructure. Russia has been hemorrhaging the first two and was pretty poor on the third one to begin with.  This may be isolated or could be a growing trend, but Russia does not have one critical strategic resource that Ukraine does…western wallets.

[akd]

3rd Assault Brigade dawn attack seen in part previously:

 

[Haiduk]

Pair of UKR tanks of 116th mech brigade ride in grey zone NE of Novoprokopivka, Khorne Group UAV team of this brigade tracks their movement

Tanks are shooting on move almost point blanc at any suspicious places, where Russian positions can be. At 0:30 several AP mines have exploded under leading tank tracks. At 2:15 enemy ATGM missed the leading tank from side direction. Drone operator exclaims: "Men! You have skipped ATGM!" Then drone operator calls fire: "Come on! At the mid of "Tenneesee" [likely position name] near a ravine!" 

At 2:46 drone operator has spotted Lancet, strifing on leading tank, and shout "Lancet! Fu...g Lancet! Transmit to tankrers!". But leading tank crew had lucky day - enemy Lancet missed too (2:54)   

Geolocation:

 

[Haiduk]

Russian TG writes UKR recaptured Opytne village north from Donetsk airport.

But there are and bad news. Opytnoye [ukr. Opytne], what is near Avdeevka, was shamefully surrendered and now is under khokol. Military rats as usual hide this.

Though, reportedly units of 53rd mech. brigade with support of elements of 36th marines brigade and elements of Natinal Guard special force brigade "Omega" for now control only part of village and mop-up is continuing. Soldiers say units of the enemy 1439th motor-rifle regiment of Territorial Troops is almost lost own combat capabilities, so yesaterday they mostly abandoned positions after first shellings and contact, but today they or their reinforcement tried to hook in the village.

 

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Astrophel said:

One lesson from the second world war is that telling the truth helps stiffen resistance and incite rebellion.  People in occupied Europe would often cite the BBC broadcasts very positively, and for many years afterwards.  There was an internal struggle with manipulative elements who wanted the BBC to tell black propaganda, but the long-lasting reputation was earned by being more reliable and truthful than the German alternative.  The BBC World Service took over the task of telling the truth to many oppressed nations around the world and in their own languages but was gradually diminished until 2016, when someone saw the wisdom of the channel, but investment has been meagre in reality.

In 18 months of following this conflict closely I have yet to hear one mention of the BBC focussing in on discontent in russian provinces, supporting the occupied territories in ukraine, or increased investment of any kind.  Nor is there any attempt to communicate via new media channels.  Similarly with the American versions.  And while Britain does not count for much these days, the level of anti-American propaganda reverberating around the world is deafening.

Russians need to learn what is being done in their name, and that there is NO reason to fear Nato or USA.  Russian soldiers need to embrace the surrender option.  People in the occupied territories need to get more sensible advice than currently emanates from Kyiv.

Contradicting russian propaganda is very low key.  The BBC is still embarrassed to say that russia lies.  The EU has a fact checker web-site but only geeks like myself know where to find it.  Most normal people feel there are usually two sides to every story and reach for balance, giving credit to the russian narrative.  Poor old russia, genuinely scared of nato expansion, how can we help them feel less afraid?

For humanity to survive we have to re-establish the value of truth.  There are no two sides to climate change and there are no two sides to russian genocide.  India cannot sit on the fence while owning 20% of the world population,  most of whom still **** on the railway tracks if they get the chance because there is a special **** sweeper railway train.

Let's start being honest with each other.

Hopefully even the russians can choose between right and wrong when properly informed.  Otherwise we are all doomed.

Frankly,  you're very naive about this. 

1. Russia is not occupied. There's no population crying out to know whays true,  what's going on outside, if there's hope.

2. They have the internet and, controlled as it us,  they can access BBC.com any time they want. They've had very wide access since D0.  

3. External media has nothing on the RusGov control and manipulation of domestic media. It's a fart in the face of a hurricane. Russian domestic propaganda is relentless,  pervasive, omnipresent and backed by legal authority, criminal prosecution and determined political direction. 

4. UK is not at war with Russia. There's no military or political imperative to inform the Russian population about anything. Investing in BBC WS is pointless. 

5. Russian population is not going to be swayed in any shape,  way or form by the BBC world service. They don't care about western narrative or values. 

[Seedorf81]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66763868

US army chief Milley and UK chief of defence staff Radakin being interviewed today.

One thing Milley says: Ukraine has about thirty days left before weather will seriously hamper further offensive actions.

[kevinkin]

20 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

thirty days

That seems a bit short to me. Maybe there is a non-military reason for bringing it up:

https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/ukraine

Perhaps some form of excuse to slow down operations? Not that the UA has to listen to Milley. 

[akd]

New upgrades for old T-80BVs:

 

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Frankly,  you're very naive about this. 

1. Russia is not occupied. There's no population crying out to know whays true,  what's going on outside, if there's hope.

2. They have the internet and, controlled as it us,  they can access BBC.com any time they want. They've had very wide access since D0.  

3. External media has nothing on the RusGov control and manipulation of domestic media. It's a fart in the face of a hurricane. Russian domestic propaganda is relentless,  pervasive, omnipresent and backed by legal authority, criminal prosecution and determined political direction. 

4. UK is not at war with Russia. There's no military or political imperative to inform the Russian population about anything. Investing in BBC WS is pointless. 

5. Russian population is not going to be swayed in any shape,  way or form by the BBC world service. They don't care about western narrative or values. 

Few months ago two Dutch entrepeneurs, who had businesses in Russia (I don't what kind or how long, and I was pretty shocked that they would keep on doing that), were interviewed about their experience with "average" Russians.

I was very surprised when they said that NOBODY gave a flying f*ck about the war with Ukraine. The interviewer (Dutch) couldn't believe that and asked them to elaborate. Well, as if it was the most normal thing ever, the entrepeneurs explained that in all of their contacts with all kinds of people from different backgrounds, the sentiment was the same: absolutely nobody cared!

And to make things even more surprising, when the interview ended, one of the businessguys said: "I'm going back to my business now (Few hundred kilometers east of Moscow, I believe) and I just wanna tell you one more thing: I have lived for years in Russia now, but I also do not give a **** about that war with Ukraine. Why would I?"

I hardly could believe it. Even though I understood that centuries of endless repression and terror create this kind of childlike behaviour (when young children see something scary or awful, they close their eyes and put their hands in front of their face, because they assume that if you ignore something unpleasant, it may as well not exist at all), I hadn't expected it to be so bad.

But it does indicate that Western "righteous information" or "propaganda" being brought upon Russians (or however you will call it) will not make any difference at all. It's like giving information to a stone, and expecting the stone to become less hard because of the info.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Tux]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

That seems a bit short to me. Maybe there is a non-military reason for bringing it up:

https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/ukraine

Perhaps some form of excuse to slow down operations? Not that the UA has to listen to Milley. 

Did you read the link?  From what I saw the headline was slightly misleading. Milley said “There's still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days' worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren't done.”  I think it’s the headline writer who has turned that into “Ukrainian offensive could only have 30 days left”.  Not helpful, for sure.

In any case nobody knows how long the offensive has left and even Milley wasn’t trying to imply that his estimate is a hard-and-fast number.  We all know that wet weather (not the cold weather the article-writer seems hung up on) could force a halt due to mud.  If for some reason it doesn’t get too muddy then the weather may not halt the offensive at all.  And of course the offensive could run out of steam all on its own before the next 30 days are up.

 

Time passes. Things change. It’s a non-story. 

[kevinkin]

https://wavellroom.com/2023/09/07/ai-on-the-battlefield-lessons-from-ukraine/

Short interesting summary on what can be learned from the war.