How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Things seem to be kind of hot now in Kleshcheevka according to Russian telegrammer, Two Majors:
https://t.me/dva_majors/21974

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Kleshcheevka, Southern flank of Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

We are informed from the field that heavy bloody battles continue in the direction. The enemy throws tanks and infantry to the settlement, there are shooting battles.

The strength of the enemy is the massive use of drones for reconnaissance and ammunition drops, trying to concentrate fire on our fortifications, bringing some of them to complete destruction.

When our small groups of infantry are detected, the enemy fires from tanks, uses mortars and cluster munitions. Also, the enemy will use anti-tank systems from the surrounding heights, which makes it difficult for the Russian Armed Forces to use armored vehicles.

The massive use of copters by the enemy has a significant impact on the development of the situation.

"We are at war, without panic. We hold on," our contact concludes the story.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We do not have the experience of this war, beyond support, and so they are the ones that are collecting the lessons learned etc and translating into training. 

Yes, agreed entirely. My own post and point was about Ukraine’s training and experience for large scale ops - not the West having pre-digested magic or whatever. Rather what you are saying. No magic answers, only the cycle of learning by experience, filtering back to commands, then back into the field…again and again. Historically, that’s how I understand the higher commands in past large scale wars had to achieve reliable skills in coordinating divisions, corps, armies, and army groups. And these skills are easily lost when those who learned them as teams are gone, generations without experience pass. My understanding will fall short of yours, but I think we are on the same page. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/world/europe/weary-soldiersunreliable-munitions-ukraines-many-challenges.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-training-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia-f51ecf9?mod=WTRN_pos1&cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_165&cx_artPos=0

 

The Wall Street Journal, and the NYT have declared the Ukrainian counter offensive to be more or less hopeless. I am all but certain this means Ukraine will achieve a massive breakthrough very soon. Whatever bit of the "Foreign Policy Blob" that is briefing them has been wrong about every other stage of the war, hard to believe they will start being right all of a sudden.

[Tux]

I'm not going to stay involved in this particular discussion if it really has descended into an 'us vs. them' shouting contest (that's intended as a reassurance, not a threat) but, just in case there is still the germ of a useful conversation to be had, here's my two-penneth response to the below:

 

10 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Of course!

That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.

It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.

But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!

...

I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.

But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.

Right, so I'm pretty sure this misrepresents how things happened: Never once did the Russians explicitly and reliably (i.e. Medvedev doesn't count) threaten to 'nuke us' if we provided a certain type of equipment.  They certainly regularly reiterated that they have a red line and would respond if it was crossed but it was always left up to 'us' whether to escalate by delivering a new type of weapon or not.  If we did so we would find out whether the red line had been crossed or not; simple as that.  If you think about it that is the only way it can be since nobody would never make public the precise location of their red line.  If they did that it would be a free pass for the enemy to immediately march right up and moon them over the top of it.

So the point is we never knew precisely where the red line was and we still don't.  That means the above argument that 'none of the previous steps crossed the line therefore the next one won't' is logically incoherent.  In fact:

1. If you assume that the red line hasn't moved since the start of the war, then each escalation we have made since then has gotten us closer to the red line.  That would suggest that each subsequent step is actually more likely to cross the red line.

2. If you assume that the red line has moved (as a useful side effect of the 'slow-but-steady' approach the West has taken) then we hope we still have plenty of room to escalate further but still have to consider each move very carefully.  I will come back to this.

3. If you don't believe there is a red line then you're welcome to make that case and prove the whole thing is a storm in a teacup.

And to reiterate: we don't know which of the above is the case.

 

11 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.

I'm sure I speak for everybody on the thread when I say I couldn't agree more.

 

11 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians.

Pointless and unhelpful strawman - literally nobody on the thread has said this.

Right, so coming back to 2. from my list above, I think it's self-evident that the red line is mobile and that there is more than one way in which it can be moved:

• We ('the West') are obviously trying to move it 'backwards', away from us, to allow us more freedom to manoeuvre in the conventional domain but also because it is good for literally everybody's health.  Other things can also move the line backwards, such as political coercion by Russia's 'allies' or changes in Russian leadership.
• The line can also move 'forwards', making it easier to cross or even, in a worst-case scenario, tripping it immediately and without warning.  Things that might cause this include NATO declaring a Ukrainian no-fly zone and then starting to wipe out all Russian aircraft and anti-air systems within range of the border; a second serious threat presenting itself in a different thatre (e.g. the PLA marches into Siberia); or changes in Russian leadership.

Why did I put "changes in Russian leadership" in bold, twice?  Because that's exactly what the West (including Ukraine, now) are ultimately aiming to achieve* and so you have to be really careful to make sure you get the right change or it can all go very, very wrong.

All of which is to say (and god knows I wish it was simpler) that I don't think nuclear weapons are directly the issue at all, here.  They are a convenient shorthand for 'things going pretty badly' which is easy to explain to tabloid journalists but then leads us down pointless rabbit holes when it all gets taken too literally.  The West is 'boiling the frog' not because they think Vlad's hand might be hovering over the Big Red Button but because they want to try and make sure they get the right change in Russian leadership, which could hopefully result in long-term peace and start Russia on the long, difficult path to redemption.  If the West get it wrong, however, we could instead see the disintegration of Russia into a violent, multi-state sh*tstorm which has been discussed previously here and which might incidentally end up with red lines being plastered all over the place to possibly catastrophic effect.

If you want evidence for this, did anyone else notice that during 'Prig's Putsch' both the Western world and Ukraine went deathly quiet?  Everyone stepped well back and Ukraine even very clearly declined the opportunity to launch an immediate, full-scale assault to try and take advantage of the sudden Russian instability.  That instability is the threat, not nukes.  We do need Russian leadership to be destabilised to the point that it falls but every effort is being made to ensure it falls the right damned way.

 

Ok, I truly apologise for how long this post is but I think that's a reflection of how far astray we've gone with the 'nuke' discussion and every issue that is being argued around it.  Unfortunately I obviously don't have any actual answers to the problem to round it off with.  So I guess I'll leave it there and look forward to the next update from the front.

 

*Yes, regain Ukrainian land and extract reparations, etc., etc. but we all know that unless Russian leadership is changed, a temporary ceasefire is the best that can be hoped for.

[NamEndedAllen]

Another angle on staff training for command at the battalion and brigade levels, let alone divisional and corps or army. Apart from classrooms…it’s expensive! Or impossible. That’s in part why I think The_Capt was talking about NATO training being at the small unit level. Time, space, opportunity…not to mention money and technical means. I doubt the public has ever given a moment’s thought to how the heck do you train a person, a group of persons to actually command an army in combat? Literally. 

WHERE can you train a corps size exercise, one opposed by another corps or at lest division or multiple brigades?

How do you coordinate or can even permit the assembly of such huge forces?

How often is enough? How often would even be possible?

How can you pay for the sheer scale of these exercises?

I think we realize all that, here. But they don’t at most newsrooms and many “think tanks”. Rotating through the NTC is a rare privilege, requiring not only all the above, but the standing up of the OPFOR refy to “teach” the incoming units some lessons. Gaming exercises have always been a feature of command training etc, because…it’s a lot easier and accessible. But does it stand for field exercises? Of course not. And do field exercises with all the rules, the referees and mostly (but not always) lack of live ammunition capture combat? Actual casualties and all the rest? Of course not. So how could we expect the Ukranians to have mastered the art at the first time or two?

The Allies can provide all the matériel they have, offer training outside the country, provide ISR, and moral support. And the Ukranians can provide the courage, the grit, the intelligence, the fortitude…all of it. But these sorts of large scale operations take all that, plus experience. If learning comes in large part from making mistakes, well then…  

in a way, I can’t blame the bulk of the public for misunderstanding what militaries face in these regards. Let alone what Ukraine is facing, enduring right now. Very few alive really have a clue, especially given how thin on the ground veterans are. Here, we really need to resist the wailing and gnashing of teeth when reality doesn’t resemble Hollywood movies.
 

 

[Endyamon]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Things seem to be kind of hot now in Kleshcheevka according to Russian telegrammer, Two Majors:
https://t.me/dva_majors/21974

 

Ukraine is using a lot of choppers? Where re the russian aviation and the "formidable" russian Air defences?

Edited July 23, 2023 by Endyamon

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

changes in Russian leadership.

I very much agree with what you said.

I'd like to add that I'm missing one piece in effecting that change, and that is an offer from the West for a way back in to the international community for Russia. It may be offensive for some on this forum to talk about that and this point in time, but I'll take the risk.

Under the assumption that there are some people in Russia who could form a - by western standards and morale - decent government, there is currently no way for them to get there. It would be easier to form such a movement if there was an offer from the West that Russia can come back if it retreats from Ukraine, pays reparations, etc...

Without such an offer, there is no way out for the people of Russia than to stick with the Tsar. And it would be to the benefit of everyone if there was an alternative.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On 7/22/2023 at 6:39 PM, Haiduk said:

If Soviet army had experience how to rule operations in which participated several armies, that now both UKR and RUS armies suffer big problems even with several brigades-level coordinations. 

That is exactly what Kofman, Lee, Gady and Muzyka were saying coming back from their latest research trip

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, Endyamon said:

Ukraine is using a lot of choppers? Where re the russian aviation and the "formidable" russian Air defences?

In original text used a word "copters". In Russian and Ukrainian military slang this word is reduced form of "quadcopter, hexacopter, octocopter"  - and means a drone with helicopter-type engine. Helicopter in our slang will be "vertushka" (from Russian word "vertoliot" = "helicopter"), means "pinwheel"

Edited July 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

I'd like to add that I'm missing one piece in effecting that change, and that is an offer from the West for a way back in to the international community for Russia.

I don't consider it offensive so much as I am missing a portion of the Russian community looking for such an option.  Personally, I'd love to see some portion of the Russian community looking to be a part of the international community.  I just haven't seen it yet, at least not on terms of accepting genocide.

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Tux said:

I think that's a reflection of how far astray we've gone with the 'nuke' discussion and every issue that is being argued around it.

We are not going astray. It is THE discussion from a strategic and policy making POW.  Let's acknowledge the current landscape is defined by nuclear blackmail. Russian should not be in this game as a society. It's only possession of WMD that allows for Russian conduct.  There is a reason that WMDs have not been used so far despite the west's large assistance to Ukraine. Some are open minded enough to want to know why that is and if the envelope can be pushed even further into Putin face. Pretty simple. 

[Tux]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

I very much agree with what you said.

I'd like to add that I'm missing one piece in effecting that change, and that is an offer from the West for a way back in to the international community for Russia. It may be offensive for some on this forum to talk about that and this point in time, but I'll take the risk.

Under the assumption that there are some people in Russia who could form a - by western standards and morale - decent government, there is currently no way for them to get there. It would be easier to form such a movement if there was an offer from the West that Russia can come back if it retreats from Ukraine, pays reparations, etc...

Without such an offer, there is no way out for the people of Russia than to stick with the Tsar. And it would be to the benefit of everyone if there was an alternative.

As well as sburke’s point I think this sort of thing has to be timed carefully in order to send the right message to the right people.  At the moment I think it’s correct that the entire focus remains on getting Russia out of Ukraine and we refuse to talk about anything else.  Until that goal is secured beyond doubt I fear any offer of ‘a way back’ would very much be interpreted as a sign of weakness within Russia.

Once things have gone so wrong for the Russian leadership that sburke’s people start to appear in plain sight, looking for a way out, the time will have come to offer them one.

[Tux]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Let's acknowledge the current landscape is defined by nuclear blackmail. 

You mean in the same sense as the landscape has been “defined by nuclear blackmail” since 1949?  Honest question.

 

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Russian should not be in this game as a society. It's only possession of WMD that allows for Russian conduct.  There is a reason that WMDs have not been used so far despite the west's large assistance to Ukraine. Some are open minded enough to want to know why that is and if the envelope can be pushed even further into Putin face. Pretty simple. 

It’s ultimately a factor, of course, but I’m arguing that I don’t think it’s actually considered a serious, imminent threat by ‘the West’ as much as Russia going all Mad Max is.  I think we’ve gone “astray” in the sense that nuclear weapons are strategic assets which guarantee the survival of a state but we know we’re not intending to threaten the survival of Russia so, unless we do something stupid that gives the impression maybe we are trying to destroy Russia, nukes should basically be irrelevant to the conduct of this war.  What I think we are probably aiming to do is change the Russian leadership and so that’s more likely to be the area of risk we use to fine tune most day-to-day policy decisions at the level of this war. 
 

The above is obviously, largely and necessarily based on speculation so I absolutely expect it to be wrong to at least some extent.  All I am doing here is trying to articulate the way I think things may be working and how that might better explain some of the decisions we see being made.

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, Tux said:

You mean in the same sense as the landscape has been “defined by nuclear blackmail” since 1949?  Honest question.

Well of course. The number one grand strategic imperative for the US is the prevention of nuclear war. And close behind that is the proliferation of WMD technology. But that does not mean those who have that technology should be given a place at the table with nations trying and trying very hard to do what's best. So North Korea, Iran and other such states in the future need to be contained. These states are often ruled by signal personalities that can be stared down. What if we didn't confront these despots?. Think about the future that would involve. Some day a gangster from South America will infiltrate the US border and have some form of destruction in the pocket. A surrogate for another nation. Yes fentanyl is already here. But think bigger. 

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[JonS]

Never mind. The_Capt was right; the big red button is the better choice.

Edited July 24, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

Who let you out tonight?

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

I don't consider it offensive so much as I am missing a portion of the Russian community looking for such an option.  Personally, I'd love to see some portion of the Russian community looking to be a part of the international community.  I just haven't seen it yet, at least not on terms of accepting genocide.

One of the main precepts of the USMC “Human Relations” training” after the U.S.. Army massacre at Mai Lai was that the primary drive for most of Humanity is food, shelter, and security, and that they don’t care who rules them as long as that “drive” is satisfied. I would venture to say that, IMHO, most of the world population fall into this category, especially the Russian population most of whom never made it out of “Serfdom”. No matter what the “ideology” claimed. It is very difficult to affect a regime change when the people who are being ruled pretty much don’t care who is ruling them.

[Battlefront.com]

I am going to ask that the nuke discussion be killed off yet again.  Every single time it comes up we just go round and round and round and round over and over and over and over the same territory.  There's NOTHING new going on in this war to suddenly make it a time sensitive conversation.  So let's please move on because those of us who have had to go through this a dozen times over again find the repetition rather trying.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Humanity is food, shelter, and security,

It is Maslow Pyramid a widely accepted theory. The problem is on the end of the day Esteem (Candidates for Office) and the Self Actualization (Talent and Intellectuals) will run the show. They are the people falling out of windows under a dictatorship. 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

BREAKING 

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1683308783131324418?t=osX1KMxU2ZAoHrB0ikxv6Q&s=09

 

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1683308783131324418?t=XrkyJZsibQTe-QUlxeth9w&s=19

 

[Kinophile]

Separately:

https://english.nv.ua/amp/rheinmetall-to-feed-hungry-ukrainian-military-with-massive-shipment-of-ammunition-for-gepard-system-50341080.html

 

[kevinkin]

Ok, I agree the nuke stuff is going nowhere. Maybe we can lighten the discussion up. Which war game (computer or board game) would best simulated the static combat we are observing in eastern Ukraine? And would those products shed light on the war and combat so we all can learn from past mistakes? I use Combat Mission and Command, but they are obvious choices. Sure many other gamers do as well. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[Taranis]

https://militaryland.net/news/5th-tank-brigade-makes-its-comeback/

 

Quote

Ukrainian Ground Forces received a well-worth additional strength in the form of a new tank brigade.

Demobilized, reactivated, used as replenishment and reactivated again. That’s the story of Ukrainian 5th Tank Brigade through the last years. The unit was formed back in 2016 as a reserve tank brigade, but was subsequently demobilized and reactivated only after the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022.

However, due to fierce fighting on many fronts during the first months and the losses in other combat brigades, tanks and manpower were used as replenishment and the path of 5th Tank Brigade seemed to be over.

In March 2023, first hints appeared that Ukrainian Command has decided to reactive 5th Tank Brigade again, possibly due to large influx of Western-donated tanks and successful tank restoration process abroad.

Later, a Facebook page of the brigade appeared online and just recently a new insignia of the brigade was shown to public. Ukrainian 5th Tank Brigade is real once again, and hopefully is here to stay.

The brigade is rumored to receive Western-donated Leopard 1A5 or M1A1 Abrams tanks. If that’s the case or not, we have to wait and see.

Visit the page of 5th Tank Brigade on our site to learn more about the unit.