How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

[Bulletpoint]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The video of "Terra" UAV recon unit about platoon of 1st mech.battalion of 3rd assault brigade attack on Russian positions on southern flank of Bakhmut. Very good bird eye view of attack developmnet and good explainnations (English subs are present) what's going on in current moment and about tactic.

Attack begins from 4:18. Helicopter strike, BMPs drive on ful speed pouring the trenches to suppress possible RPG and ATGM shooters, infantry dismounts and shelling the trenches, while the "armored taxi" drive back, then cleaning the trenches 

 

What do you think happened when suddenly the captured prisoners were blurred out? At 10:36

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

What do you think happened when suddenly the captured prisoners were blurred out? At 10:36

I have seen a fragment of this video without blure on other twitter account, but it's unclear what happened. Two Russians came from dugout and layed down, one of them was kicked by UKR soldier, but more Russians still in blindage and UKR soldiers continue to fire there, as I can remember, one Russian rised up on knees and turned toward blindage, but he was almost hidden behind the wall of trench, so I didn't see what happened. There was cut-off and continue of episode was already without these Russians. You can see uncensored version in TG by the link in video   

[DesertFox]

Completely delusional these lunatics.

 

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680198869806620673?s=20

[Haiduk]

Troops of 59th mot.inf.brigade assault enemy trenches, southern flank of Avdiivka - Pervomaiske - Pisky area

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, pintere said:

According to Mashovets it seems like the Russians are assembling a force of considerable size in Luhansk. We’ve already seen them launch probing attacks with varying degrees of success, but it seems like quite a lot of combat power is unused.

I don't believe Mashovets in this case.  I have no idea where he's getting this information, but the numbers he quoted seem to be way too high in equipment at the very least.  My guess is this is yet another case of estimates made by counting Russian units in the area and presuming the units are far stronger than they are.

7 hours ago, pintere said:

While I have great faith in the courage of the AFU and the talent of their top commanders, I can only hope that they have (or are making) a plan to turn things round for their offensive in the south before the clock runs out this year.

Even if there is a major Russia force looking to strike, I doubt they will have an easy time of it.  As someone else pointed out, it could be Bakhmut 2.0 where Ukraine slowly loses ground with big losses but not enough to undermine strategic planning of new units.

If Russia has a huge force in the woods of Luhansk instead of in the south, I say this is a great thing for Ukraine.  It means Russia's efforts are divided.  To some degree the same is true for Ukraine, but we saw the outcome of Russia's 2023 winter offensive and the end result was a net positive for Ukraine.

Steve

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Attack begins from 4:18. Helicopter strike, BMPs drive on ful speed pouring the trenches to suppress possible RPG and ATGM shooters, infantry dismounts and shelling the trenches, while the "armored taxi" drive back, then cleaning the trenches 

Interesting commentary from maker. "While assaulters made measured fire and used granades, Russians started to fire like Somali." Commander who threw MG and was too angry on his men to actually fight back is golden, too.

I am always curious in those situation of very close encounters how much drone situational awarness attackers at the edge have. In many clips I saw, they don't seem to benefit from real time drone feed during actual fight, so must guess where enemy is in this maze.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Completely delusional these lunatics.

 

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1680198869806620673?s=20

Another example of how the soft of mind continue to be easily misled.  Russians might be worried about Wagner today, so tell them Wagner is going to open up a new front.  "Great!" the numbed brains think and that is the end of it.  When Wagner doesn't do anything they don't wonder why because it's all forgotten already.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

Mother of all mine threads:

 

 

[Beleg85]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another example of how the soft of mind continue to be easily misled.  Russians might be worried about Wagner today, so tell them Wagner is going to open up a new front.  "Great!" the numbed brains think and that is the end of it.  When Wagner doesn't do anything they don't wonder why because it's all forgotten already.

Steve

On other side, though, let's remember battle of Conoco oilfields. Wagner was exposed then and Russian command didn't care...I wouldn't be surprised if Putin and Shoigu would love to procure something similar to them on larger scale, especially after mutiny.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

ISW July 14 Report:

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up but seeks to separate Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces.

Here's an example of how difficult it is for truly mindful expert analysis to avoid putting bias into their statements. 

Original ISW text:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain..."

Now with one word swapped out for two words of my own (bolded and underlined):

"Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he is obligated to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up..."

ISW's wording implies that Putin is the one making decisions about Wagner, but it is possible it wasn't his choice.

I can understand analysts phrasing things with the benefit of the doubt, but in situations such as this one I think a general caveat should be mentioned somewhere.  Similar to what ISW, and others, do when a government official makes a statement about casualties or something else that is difficult to verify.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://post.news/@/topcargo200/2SceYlipXt3QsmJMkr0QDARcTXd

anther Russian Airborne battalion commander gone. The pre war Russian officer corps has simply been vaporized in this war.

[DesertFox]

Take it with a grain of salt. Anyways, state of affairs in Orc army seems to go down the drain in some units.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1680309371106983939?s=20

The Russian VDV troops threaten Shoigu and Gerasimov 

"Servicemen of the 7th Airborne Division recorded an audio message to the Ministry of Defense. In particular, they spoke in defense of their commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky. The catalyst for this appeal was the removal of the commander of the 106th Airborne Division of the Airborne Forces, General Seliverstov . In addition, in early July, General Kornev was removed from command of the 7th Airborne Assault Division. “We, the paratroopers, warn that we will not tolerate such actions in relation to General Teplinsky. And in the event of the slightest threat to his life and freedom, we will stand as a wall to protect the honor and dignity of our commander. We are very determined. Up to the point that we will withdraw from our positions and go to the rescue of our Bata. You, those who sit in the offices! The landing party does not abandon its own! Do not make fatal mistakes"

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1680309371106983939?s=20

[dan/california]

https://post.news/@/cpu_up/2ScdLqbEFkbAJp1DPj3dyyUjtOf

It is a great shark meme. Ukrainians need to start using the music from jaws in videos.

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

is obligated

The source document is in Russian. So maybe something was lost in the translation? If he were obligated, where would that stem from? Battlefield realities? Bromance with Prig. With regard to Wagner, right now actions mean more than words. The west should keep an eye on them. But here is a good one if folks are having a bad day:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/putin-sent-wagner-to-belarus-to-prepare-attack-on-poland-russian-lawmaker/ar-AA1dUmKJ

AP on the Kommersant interview:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-wagner-a2fac2683191c0605441e93504ae14c8

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

Intense footage, as always.

I didn't expect so many infantrymen come out of the first dugout, it was a veritable clown car. 

This again... WTF is the point of having a platoon's worth of infantry manning an extensive defensive position only to have them all sitting on one dugout while they get flanked and the enemy gets into the trenches?!?!?  It just doesn't make any sense, yet we see this all the time.  The last few defenders seen not only weren't wearing camo uniforms or body armor, but they might have been wearing steel helmets.

The other thing we keep seeing (including the K-2 video just posted) is Russians running away without their helmets and/or guns.  What a mess.

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

Also, my word, that Russian throwing the jammed gun into his subordinate's face out of anger... priceless.

I told my wife about this one and even she wanted to see it for herself!  Just can't make this stuff up.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The source document is in Russian. So maybe something was lost in the translation?

Ah sorry, I could have been clearer.

ISW characterized Putin's words as if Putin is totally in control of his actions.  Which is the assumption most people are making.  Me?  I think his decision making is being constrained as part of whatever negotiations are going on behind the scenes.  Therefore, I'm simply pointing out that we don't really know if Putin "decided" to handle Wagner in this way, or if he was "obligated" to.  ISW is not intentionally adding bias into their statement, but in fact very well might be doing so.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

General note to you guys posting Twitter stuff.  I've noticed (lately?) that if you hit the SUBMIT REPLY button for your post too quickly the Twitter posts will show up as links instead of being displayed.  So pause and wait a sec for the Twitter stuff to show up in your posts before hitting SUBMIT REPLY.

Then there is some new(ish) issues with posting Tweets from certain accounts.  The DesertFox links above will only post as text links because Twitter has flagged the account for something.  No idea what, but my experience is the account is flagged as age restricted.

Steve

[DesertFox]

NOELs sitrep for today 15/07/23 - open up in Twitter to see all the posts of the tweet.

 

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680328325028278272?s=20

[Endyamon]

Glad to see some italian equipment at use :)

[akd]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

What do you think happened when suddenly the captured prisoners were blurred out? At 10:36

You can see unedited video on Telegram (link in YouTube description).  The prisoners got roughed up a bit, seemingly because they weren’t following commands to lay down.  Possibly also blurred because they appear wounded already.  Guy with a splinted leg was blurred later for this reason alone.

[Fenris]

Ukrainian fishermen land a T-72

 

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-recep-tayyip-erdogan-the-master-haggler-of-world-politics-at-vilnius-nato-summit/

Title pretty much just says it all.

[chuckdyke]

Not always agreeing with his atheism but here he is right. Nationalism is the worst reason to start a war. Imo this is the case with Russia and Orthodoxy is singing the same tune there.

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by chuckdyke

[JonS]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

My guess is an incendiary flash following the shockwave.  Something got blow up and away with the initial shockwave and then flashed up behind it.  

Aye, that seems reasonable. It could also be a weird artefact from something like odd polarisation interacting with a ****ty low res camera over a limited data pipe.

Edited July 15, 2023 by JonS