How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

The main gun ammunition of Slovenian M-55S tanks in UKR service: M393A3 HESH-T and M465A2 HEAT-T - the same as in Stryker M1128

 

[Haiduk]

What is a strange flash similiar to lightning after Russian tank blew up by mine?

Location - Berkhivka village, north from Bakhmut

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

I'm no physicist but it almost looked as if the exploding gasses got so hot they became plasma for just a millisecond??

But should that even be possible?

Weird.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Seedorf81

[mosuri]

This guy loves poring over Russian storage site satellite images, was counting tanks and now artillery

 

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I'm no physicist but it almost looked as if the exploding gasses got so hot they became plasma for just a millisecond??

But should that even be 

(Assuming not a post production effect) Technically no:

https://www.advancedplasmasolutions.com/what-is-plasma/#:~:text=Source The core of plasma,its electrical properties and behavior.

https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/49/103/49103575.pdf

So plasma come in at around 11000 F and an HE explosion (they used datasheet) is around 3100F in the center.  This effect appears on the outer edge of the explosion where is cooler.  My guess is an incendiary flash following the shockwave.  Something got blow up and away with the initial shockwave and then flashed up behind it.  

[Haiduk]

Missed, but good example how it looks Soviet/Russian cluster artillery shell work. 

 

[pintere]

According to Mashovets it seems like the Russians are assembling a force of considerable size in Luhansk. We’ve already seen them launch probing attacks with varying degrees of success, but it seems like quite a lot of combat power is unused.

The last translated post is attached here. If his numbers are accurate, it means that the Russians certainly don’t seem to be short on combat potential and/or aren’t overly concerned about the situation getting out of hand in any of their defensive battles.

While I have great faith in the courage of the AFU and the talent of their top commanders, I can only hope that they have (or are making) a plan to turn things round for their offensive in the south before the clock runs out this year.

Let's Sum up...

They are waiting for the right moment... and they really hope that their "colleagues" in the South will force Zaluzhny to "unpack" the bulk of his reserves... And when Ukrainian reserves begin to tear the "main line" in the South and get stuck there, they hope to hit...

While they are "extiring out" where and how to "beat" ... improve their positions at the tactical level and complete the process of rapid deployment of their strike groups ... (including "prepared" reserves at Belarusian training grounds) ... create a dispersed and hidden logistics system (MTO) in future areas of strikes.

In total, in the Kupyansky and Limansky directions (i.e. along the Seversky Donets River, in the northern part of the Luhansk region), the enemy concentrated under 830 tanks, more than 1.5 thousand armored vehicles, about 770 artillery systems and 300 units of MLRS... and the number of both groups together has already reached more than 100,000 "carcasses" … and all this is concentrated in a front line that’s 120 km in a straight line … So you can calculate the degree of concentration and operational density yourself...

I think now, the Russian headquarters are solving one important issue - where it is better to concentrate the main efforts - closer to the border (Kupyansk direction), or it is still worth hitting Liman and Borovaya... and in the Kupyansky direction to organize "auxiliary actions"...

All these intentions and hopes of the enemy for the summer campaign... in this part, the LBS can destroy one thing. Of course, we won't talk about it now... but for some reason I'm sure it will happen. The reason for this is the fact that the enemy command, preparing for this operation, in my opinion, made only one, but very important mistake... Although it did everything allegedly right - gradually, hidden and "pretended to be a rag..."

The roots of this mistake are again in the usual trend for the Russian command - underestimation of its opponent (i.e. APU) in the operational planning of its actions. They again deny the Ukrainian military command the ability to think strategically and non-standardly... For which, most likely, they will pay, once again...

[A Canadian Cat]

6 minutes ago, pintere said:

And when Ukrainian reserves begin to tear the "main line" in the South and get stuck there, they hope to hit...

But will it be as successful as the taking of Bakhmut

11 minutes ago, pintere said:

it means that the Russians certainly don’t seem to be short on combat potential and/or aren’t overly concerned about the situation getting out of hand in any of their defensive battles

Or, hear me out, it all a lie.

[Haiduk]

National Guard squad takes cover under fire in the trench or big crater, their armor (captured BTR-82A) arrived to cover them and evacuate. This sound of 30 mm gun almost over the head %) This is probably near Novopokrovka village, Zaporizhzhia oblast, were sevaral NG units are involved

 

 

[kevinkin]

ISW July 14 Report:

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up but seeks to separate Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces.

Belarusian government and independent sources confirmed on July 14 that Wagner Group instructors previously deployed in Africa previously arrived at training grounds in Belarus.

Wagner troops moving to (some from Africa contrary to popular thinking)  Belarus for housing/training. 

 https://www.aol.com/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-092330923.html

Although discounted right after the coup, could small parties of Wagners probe north of Kiev with the sole mission to upset/distract UA offensive operations in the South? It would appear to be a better use of their talents rather than sticking them in static trenches. Even to the point of infiltrating small Wagner units to wreak havoc then fall back. This would put Belarus in a bad position, so this line of operations is not likely. This sounds more like getting Wagner out of the way for a while, feeding them, keeping them busy and readying them as some sort of reserve. 

[Haiduk]

WP interview with Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, where he made several tough messages: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/14/ukraine-military-valery-zaluzhny-russia/

Zaluzhny said, he uses weapons made in Ukraine for the frequent strikes across the border that Kyiv never officially acknowledges as its own.

“To save my people, why do I have to ask someone for permission what to do on enemy territory?” Zaluzhny recently told The Washington Post in a rare interview. “For some reason, I have to think that I’m not allowed to do anything there. Why? Because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will … use nuclear weapons? The kids who are dying don’t care.

“This is our problem, and it is up to us to decide how to kill this enemy. It is possible and necessary to kill on his territory in a war. If our partners are afraid to use their weapons, we will kill with our own. But only as much as is necessary.”

 

Zaluzhny, however, isn’t shy about his intent to reclaim Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally annexed in 2014, even as some Western officials privately worry about what Putin’s response would be if Ukrainian troops ever reached the territory. “As soon as I have the means, I’ll do something. I don’t give a damn — nobody will stop me,” Zaluzhny said.

 

 

 

[womble]

33 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Although discounted right after the coup, could small parties of Wagners probe north of Kiev with the sole mission to upset/distract UA offensive operations in the South?

I'd very much doubt that any dislocation or distraction on the northern border with Belarus will reach the southern operational area. Small probes won't hold any ground. They might be able to inflict casualties on the local defensive regiments at a "favourable rate" (or they might not; those local defense battalions aren't exactly short of combat experience either), but they won't be able to drive them wholesale towards Kyiv, especially if they've no heavy support, having handed all the gear back to the "regulars".

[kevinkin]

Not a matter of taking Kiev, but making the nation as a whole look over their collective shoulder. Like I said, unlikely. But it is is interesting to think of how Wagner will be used going forward. Dispersing them seems to be counter productive. 

47 minutes ago, womble said:

but they won't be able to drive them wholesale towards Kyiv,

https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-wagner-lukashenko-prigozhin-mutiny-d5bb8f5ba03ffe35a29205f44bec25d9

The west will make sure there are no surprises from the north with watchful eyes. 

Edited July 15, 2023 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

The video of "Terra" UAV recon unit about platoon of 1st mech.battalion of 3rd assault brigade attack on Russian positions on southern flank of Bakhmut. Very good bird eye view of attack developmnet and good explainnations (English subs are present) what's going on in current moment and about tactic.

Attack begins from 4:18. Helicopter strike, BMPs drive on ful speed pouring the trenches to suppress possible RPG and ATGM shooters, infantry dismounts and shelling the trenches, while the "armored taxi" drive back, then cleaning the trenches 

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, womble said:

I'd very much doubt that any dislocation or distraction on the northern border with Belarus will reach the southern operational area. Small probes won't hold any ground. They might be able to inflict casualties on the local defensive regiments at a "favourable rate" (or they might not; those local defense battalions aren't exactly short of combat experience either), but they won't be able to drive them wholesale towards Kyiv, especially if they've no heavy support, having handed all the gear back to the "regulars".

with their army at full strength and the UA scrambling they couldn't take Kiev so yeah I am willing to go out on a limb here and say there isn't much of a northern threat.

[cesmonkey]

A somewhat interesting insight from Rybar in the update below:

https://t.me/rybar/49717

Quote

At the same time, at night, artillerymen of the 72nd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as tanks of the 1st brigade, fired at the strongholds of the RF Armed Forces near Priyutnoye , covering the rotation of units of the 36th brigade in landings to the north.

In the context of ongoing attacks on Priyutnoye and Staromayorskoye, it is interesting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine organized close coordination between firing units. If necessary, the artillerymen of one formation assist the forces in another sector, increasing the capabilities of the Ukrainian group.

 

[_Morpheus_]

K2 bombing russian positions using drones with granades, it's so precise.

 

[Bulletpoint]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

One more examples of Bradleys toughness - this one got direct hit from the tank gun, but kept driving capabilities

The guy Sergio from 47th brigade: "This is my company, there weren't dismounts inside, the crew is intact, the vehicle now under repairing "

 

I saw this on Denis Davydov's channel, and wondered what kind of shell could make this damage. Doesn't seem like HEAT or rod penetrator.. was it HE maybe?

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

The video of "Terra" UAV recon unit about platoon of 1st mech.battalion of 3rd assault brigade attack on Russian positions on southern flank of Bakhmut. Very good bird eye view of attack developmnet and good explainnations (English subs are present) what's going on in current moment and about tactic.

Attack begins from 4:18. Helicopter strike, BMPs drive on ful speed pouring the trenches to suppress possible RPG and ATGM shooters, infantry dismounts and shelling the trenches, while the "armored taxi" drive back, then cleaning the trenches 

Intense footage, as always.

I didn't expect so many infantrymen come out of the first dugout, it was a veritable clown car. 

Also, my word, that Russian throwing the jammed gun into his subordinate's face out of anger... priceless.

Too bad about the two duds in the beginning. 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

was it HE maybe?

I think, the flame marks and traces of fragments would remain on the armor

[Haiduk]

UKR FPV drone hit blindage, where Lancets were stored. The bow of one of them is seen on 0:01

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Carolus]

26 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

K2 bombing russian positions using drones with granades, it's so precise.

Some sort of incendiary ammunition being used, very interesting and must be useful against dugouts. The danger of igniting strored ammo and the chance of sparks to get into hard to reach places.

And the human natural fear of fire will and the smoke will help to make the occupants leave quickly.

[Letter from Prague]

Russia's Federal Security Service claims it prevented murder of propagandist Simonyan and Sobchak

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/15/7411471/

 

They're probably making things up, but if not ... well better luck next time.

[Tux]

Ben Wallace is resigning.  He’s expected to stick around until the next cabinet reshuffle, circa September.

Personally I don’t think this will change much at all but I know he’s become a character of discussion on this thread so thought it might be relevant.

[Haiduk]

Result of UKR missile strike on 11th of July on large ammo dump in Novooleksiivka, Kherson oblast