How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Tidbits from a podcast, the tweet author is kind enough to pull stuff for reading. Takeaways, Russia, with all it's bungling, is still producing artillery shells, still replacing troops, and we are full swing in attrition phase.

Imo, we need the U.S and Europe to get fully invested in artillery and ammunition and long range missiles, cause I think the case is definitely nearing the point where Ukraine can argue without the ability to hit more of mainland Russia, they won't get anywhere, and are stopped in their tracks, and Russia is still hitting civilians without regard, and I think the push arguments regarding the general public of Russia, in not wanting to sway them towards supporting the war by striking mainland Russia, are waning month by month with little signs of discontent.

Quote

Informative podcast with @DAlperovitch reflecting on his recent trip to Ukraine. " They certainly had hopes that the Russians would not be as deeply as entrenched as they are...It's really, really tough going, they're taking enormous casualties."

"the debate in western capitals...is often framed in the context of lands, how much land is Ukraine going to take back...debate in Ukraine is actually very different. The fundamental issue they're focused on...is how do we end this war in a way where we have durable security?"

Alperovitch: "We're meeting with someone very senior in [Ukraine's] MoD. And we asked them what are your needs. And this person said: I have just five needs and they're shells, shells, shells, shells and shells."

Alperovitch: "part of their [Ukraine] pitch to Sweden is to say...we can show you combat experience, we can do the marketing for your Gripens. Just give them to us and we'll show you how they do against Russian Air Force. They'll be great for future marketing of your aircraft."

Alperovitch: "one of the things that they [Ukraine] are very insistent on is that they want detailed manuals...for those systems so that they can maintain them to large extent themselves... we'll figure it out, we can resolve the IP issues, just help us help ourselves."

Alperovitch: "The Ukrainians...don't think that Wagner is in Belarus. They think that maybe a few dozen people have gone into Belarus. Some of them have come out since then. They don't think that Prigozhin is based in Belarus." Ukraine thinks not many Wagner signing MoD contracts

Alperovitch:  "the other thing that the Ukrainians told me is that they don't think that MoD is paying salaries for Wagner anymore ... the Ukrainians believe that those payments have now stopped." Ukrainians also "don't believe that Surovikin is in jail."

Alperovitch: "the Ukrainians believe that there were some Russian pilots that ignored orders to strike the Wagner column as it was on its way to Moscow, that many in the Russian military and Rosgvardiya did not want to shoot at Wagner. And that's clearly a problem for Putin..."

Alperovitch: "Ukrainians believe that about 20,000 new [Russian] recruits are being pulled every single month. So that's providing replacement troops, after training, to be used in Ukraine...that may give them some options to delay the more general mobilisation wave"

Alperovitch: "the other thing we've learned is that [Russian] production capacity is increasing...they're believed to be producing at least a million artillery shells a year and targeting significantly more—targeting over 2mn, but the Ukrainians don't believe they'll get there."

Rob Lee:" Ukraine has not made as much territorial gains as they would want. But the thing that is quite significant & we can't really measure v. well is attrition. And there's clearly a lot of attrition going on, it's not very clear how the relative attrition is playing out..."

Rob Lee: "Russia can stand attrition in convict units pretty easily because they can replace them. If the naval infantry units or if spetsnatz brigades take heavy casualties,  that could be a problem for the ability to defend going forward..here's a lot of things we can't see."

 

[RandomCommenter]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, we should give this a rest.  Anybody that thinks Russia is not interested in expanding westward really doesn't understand Russia or its history.  It would be in control of London if it had ever had the opportunity to do so.  In fact, some say it did (Google "Londongrad" and "Moscow-on-Thames" and see what comes up ).

So, at this point we're arguing how many angles can fit on the head of a pin.  Which isn't particularly useful to this discussion now that the basic premise has been firmly established.  Which is, Russia presents a direct threat to the west's control of its own territory.  Period.

I hate to comment when Steve asked to give the topic a rest.

But there has been a lot of talk about Byzantium, so I couldn't resist adding that Moscow as the "third Rome" (has anyone ever heard such rubbish?) always wanted control of Constantinople / Istanbul. 

Russia had every intention of expanding westward until it was stopped. They would have happily gobbled up Romania, Bulgaria, the Balkans, European Turkey. They invaded the Danubian Principalities in 1853 and this was an unprovoked war of expansion into the West.

Russia has expanded an average of 50 square miles a day, every day, since the reign of Ivan the Terrible. That's the sixteenth century. No other nation is as consistently greedy of their neighbors territory as Russia. The only people that came close were the British for the 200-300 odd years of their imperial hubris. But the Russians are still at it today.

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, TheVulture said:

That was my guess - the name in the Russian text was Урожайное, which is likely to be the Russian version of Урожайне (Urozhaine)

Of course, Slavic settelmnent names are like abrakadabra for western readers, especially if it has more that 15 letters ))), but yes each name of city, town and village can be roughly translated in English. 

Urozhayne is adjective, so it better to translate not like "harvest", but "fruitful"  ) Though, of course geographical names aren't translated, even partilly like Velyka Novosilka can't be Large Novosilka ) - full rough translated name will be "Large Newcomerville" )

Typical Ukrainian village or rarely setlement/town name has ending -(il/in/ian/iv)ka. Then this in noun. It consists from some significant part and the ending. This "-ka" usually means founding /belonging/first settlers name/name originated from some charakter - so, for example Ivanivka - "Ivan's village", "originated from Ivan", "belonged to Ivan" or Dubivka - "originated from oaks".  Nesterianka - "originated from Nestor"

Some villages and towns rarely have only significant word, without ending.  For example Kopani  - old Ukrainian word "Kopan' ", means "the pit for keeping a water or the well without the frame", so it translated like "Waterpits", or Lyman - despite this word is equal to "liman, firth" for Donbas it has local means "the lake". Or Tokmak - name derived from name of the river Tokmak, which has turk origins means "poll/butt"

Many villages have endings in the names "-le", "-ne", "-te", "-s'ke", "-ve", "-che" and then this is just adjectives. Verbove - from "verba" ("willow"). Sometime it has means of belongings like "-ka". If Ivanivka is "originated from Ivan", that "Ivanivs'ke" is "belonging to Ivan". Robotyne, btw, it more similar to the noun - it's from the word "work", so maybe "place of [field] work", but I think it likely was initially Russian name "Rabotino" more typical for Russian names, which was just translated on Ukrainian manner.   

Edited July 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One more examples of Bradleys toughness - this one got direct hit from the tank gun, but kept driving capabilities

The guy Sergio from 47th brigade: "This is my company, there weren't dismounts inside, the crew is intact, the vehicle now under repairing "

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[JonS]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

we're arguing how many angles can fit on the head of a pin.

To be straight with you, as I reflex on this point, and not to be obtuse, I understand it depends in full on whether they are right or acute.

[sburke]

48 minutes ago, JonS said:

To be straight with you, as I reflex on this point, and not to be obtuse, I understand it depends in full on whether they are right or acute.

and here I was wondering if he just had a thing for not mentioning the saxons.

Edited July 14, 2023 by sburke

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Robotyne, btw, it more similar to the noun - it's from the word "work", so maybe "place of [field] work", but I think it likely was initially Russian name "Rabotino" more typical for Russian names, which was just translated on Ukrainian manner.   

On side note, it is of course the same source as Western Slavic word robota, which via Czech writer Karel Capek gave name to eng. robotics.

Yeah, a class egghead, now throw your paper bullets.

Some (anecdotal) evidence of local ammo shoratges on Russian side. The same 72nd Brigade we talked day ago:

 

[Livdoc44]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Good example, how vids are faked. Next time be sceptical what you think you see might not be what you really see.

 

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1679940102070362116?s=20

Wow, thanks for sharing. That's a crazy juxtaposition. Sure fooled me. This makes me appreciate the work done by Oryx and the rest of the OSINT community that much more, to say nothing of the professionals.

[danfrodo]

29 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

On side note, it is of course the same source as Western Slavic word robota, which via Czech writer Karel Capek gave name to eng. robotics.

Yeah, a class egghead, now throw your paper bullets.

Some (anecdotal) evidence of local ammo shoratges on Russian side. The same 72nd Brigade we talked day ago:

 

These anecdotal stories seem to suggest some very brittle sections of the RU defenses.   I'm certainly hoping it's pervasive and not just a  few local spots. 

Here's another update, w battlefield maps.  RU moves on Kupyansk front so far yielding nothing useful.  UKR making progress around Bakhmut but not much in the south.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/14/2181173/-Ukraine-Update-There-s-a-rich-harvest-of-Russian-propaganda-across-Ukraine

 

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

Taking a listen to this episode of Geopolitics Decanted, and it seems pretty clear that the Russian General Staff and Ministry of Defense are actually dumb as ****. Evidently, per ZSU intel sources cited by Dmitri, the MoD benched General Surovikin back in January over concerns that he was “expending too many PGMs” during his infrastructure strike campaign. The Russian military came perilously close to degrading Ukraine’s infrastructure enough to create knock-on effects that’d potentially silence ZSU’s SAMs on a local basis, and create openings for VKS strike-assets to exploit (potentially creating a spiraling effect on Ukraine’s ability to sustain and defend itself).

 

 

[Offshoot]

It wasn't a coup at all but merely a failed hostile corporate takeover followed by another failed hostile corporate takeover.

Putin says he tried but failed to oust Prigozhin after Wagner mutiny - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/14/putin-says-he-tried-but-failed-to-oust-prigozhin-after-wagner-mutiny-figters-ukarine-war

But in the fall out, let off little people start to spill the beans:

Victims of “Donbas genocide” were paid actors, Prigozhin’s fired trolls reveal - https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/14/victims-of-donbas-genocide-were-paid-actors-prigozhins-fired-trolls-reveal/

Edited July 15, 2023 by Offshoot

[kevinkin]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1791208/Russia-TV-hack-Ukraine-war-latest

Massive hack of Russian TV? Annoying web site, but posted anyway. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Good example, how vids are faked. Next time be sceptical what you think you see might not be what you really see.

 

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1679940102070362116?s=20

Thanks for that.  I've seen a lot of this right from the start of the war.  Showing something clearly and then showing an explosion that isn't clear at all is an old trick of theirs. People who followed Russia's actions in Syria said this happened a lot, so there's been years of practice.

There were a couple of pretty infamous videos early last year where an Orlan observed Ukrainian soldiers going into a building then a different perspective showed the building blowing up.  But it wasn't the same building.  There was a bunch of these within a short period of time because Russia had nothing to show to rival what Ukraine was showing.

The general rule of thumb is that if something comes from a Russian source, treat it with caution.  A lot of caution.  Not everything they put out is fake or partially untrue, but enough of it is that it's better to err on the side of doubt than of belief.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Of course, Slavic settelmnent names are like abrakadabra for western readers, especially if it has more that 15 letters ))), but yes each name of city, town and village can be roughly translated in English. 

Urozhayne is adjective, so it better to translate not like "harvest", but "fruitful"  ) Though, of course geographical names aren't translated, even partilly like Velyka Novosilka can't be Large Novosilka ) - full rough translated name will be "Large Newcomerville" )

Typical Ukrainian village or rarely setlement/town name has ending -(il/in/ian/iv)ka. Then this in noun. It consists from some significant part and the ending. This "-ka" usually means founding /belonging/first settlers name/name originated from some charakter - so, for example Ivanivka - "Ivan's village", "originated from Ivan", "belonged to Ivan" or Dubivka - "originated from oaks".  Nesterianka - "originated from Nestor"

Some villages and towns rarely have only significant word, without ending.  For example Kopani  - old Ukrainian word "Kopan' ", means "the pit for keeping a water or the well without the frame", so it translated like "Waterpits", or Lyman - despite this word is equal to "liman, firth" for Donbas it has local means "the lake". Or Tokmak - name derived from name of the river Tokmak, which has turk origins means "poll/butt"

Many villages have endings in the names "-le", "-ne", "-te", "-s'ke", "-ve", "-che" and then this is just adjectives. Verbove - from "verba" ("willow"). Sometime it has means of belongings like "-ka". If Ivanivka is "originated from Ivan", that "Ivanivs'ke" is "belonging to Ivan". Robotyne, btw, it more similar to the noun - it's from the word "work", so maybe "place of [field] work", but I think it likely was initially Russian name "Rabotino" more typical for Russian names, which was just translated on Ukrainian manner.   

Nice!  I really appreciate all the related learning that is possible within this thread.  I've of course noted the patterns, but now I know more about their meaning.  Thanks for helping us out!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

and here I was wondering if he just had a thing for not mentioning the saxons.

No, it's the Spanish Inquisition.  Then again, nobody expects that so you are excused for not knowing it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

On side note, it is of course the same source as Western Slavic word robota, which via Czech writer Karel Capek gave name to eng. robotics.

Yeah, a class egghead, now throw your paper bullets.

Some (anecdotal) evidence of local ammo shoratges on Russian side. The same 72nd Brigade we talked day ago:

 

I think there are multiple issues with Russian logistics and the specific reason X unit has problems is perhaps very different in Situation A vs. Situation B.  This means we have to be careful about taking one instance and wondering how it applies to Russians in general.

I have noted quite a few times here how much stuff Ukrainian forces have found in Russian trenches.  The Ukrainians themselves have made mention of this in their videos.  Not just the very good quality positions, but sometimes fairly rough ones.  Ammunition of all sorts of types seems to be abundant, not scarce. 

What this tells me is that when Russian higher levels of command commit time and resources to building a significant defensive position they also ensure it gets supplied with weapons/ammo.  However, it is easy to do this with one truck one time.  Therefore, if the position isn't expending it's ammo then it doesn't need to be resupplied.  Since Russian troops often give up their trenches when Ukrainian infantry comes knocking, the result is what appears to be a good supply situation when it is in fact not.  Food and water are consumed regularly and we've seen ample evidence that units often have to fend for themselves.

Now, picture a mobik/conscript unit that nobody in charge is really sure where it is or what to do with it since it's neither trained or well armed.  How likely is it that this unit will get properly supplied?  Not very.  Especially because these units have such low standing within the Russian armed forces' pecking order.

We also know that Russian logistics are riddled with corruption.  A few pages ago there was the discussion between Russian social media posters talking about how Wagner's forces were supplied.  In Russia it is not the squeaky wheel that gets the grease, it's the wheel that steals the grease

So yes, I think it is pretty easy to conclude Russia's logistics suck because they sucked even before the war, not to mention after being hammered for 1.5 years.  It would be nice to see this finally break Russia's overall ability to wage war, but apparently Russian soldiers are dumb enough to fight for a country that doesn't feed them or even provide ammo.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

Update on the F-16 timetable from Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba:
 

Quote

Training should begin sometime in August, possibly early September. In parallel, the preparation of legal decisions necessary for the transfer of the aircraft and the aircraft themselves will proceed. I think that if by the end of the first quarter of next year the first F-16s fly in the Ukrainian air, flown by Ukrainian pilots, then it will be according to the schedule.

But we need to train engineers, technicians, we need to prepare the infrastructure. There are many nuances, so the schedule may shift.

https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/viyna-nato-vilnyuskyy-samit/32499810.html

Edited July 15, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/russia-gulag-ukraine/674705/

Anyone who wonders why the Ukrainians keep fighting, why they keep asking for more weapons, why they become frustrated by slow-moving transatlantic diplomacy, why they seem angry or “unreasonable,” should remember this: The Gulag was supposed to belong to the past. Now it belongs to the present. If Ukrainians don’t want it to be part of their future, they will have to physically remove these camps—and the people who run them—from Ukrainian land. Until they have succeeded, no help will ever be enough.

 

She left out the part about hunting the people that run these monstrosities for the next hundred years.The Russian sub commander with a Strava habit was just a proof of concept.

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1679547119542083589

Twitter is being a BLEEP, but the video is a Russian unit unpacking a weapons shipment. The good news, for the Russians is that everything seemed to have been stored in remarkably good conditions. The bad news is the the newest thing in the shipment was from ~1949.

[sburke]

48 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1679547119542083589

Twitter is being a BLEEP, but the video is a Russian unit unpacking a weapons shipment. The good news, for the Russians is that everything seemed to have been stored in remarkably good conditions. The bad news is the the newest thing in the shipment was from ~1949.

gonna party like its 1949!......  nah just doesn't have the same ring to it.

[Fenris]

Haven't seen much of these yet

Quote

US-supplied M1126 Stryker ICVs in Ukrainian service.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1680052445873831937

[chuckdyke]

Currently watching this on Netflix. We only see here the beginning.

 

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2789

Quote

If the enemy continues to advance like this, he will soon have an acute shortage of hospital beds and places in cemeteries, with no practical result. The day was also not easy for us, but the losses are not comparable: yesterday we had one wounded, one did not have time to get to the medical facility - he was seriously injured. The statistics for the neighbors are about the same ...

Once again, I would like to note our low level of counter-battery combat. Our losses yesterday - not from small arms fire, - from fragments. Enemy crews do not change positions for hours, working with impunity on our front line, and we are not able to suppress them. As I have written more than once, our cannon artillery as a means of destruction, in principle, does not meet modern requirements for a number of reasons - primarily in terms of range. On the other hand, the controlled kamikaze drones of the Lancet class, capable of giving the necessary distances and carrying a decent warhead, showed themselves well.

The problem is that such products are not enough and they are unreasonably expensive. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that on the frames we see only successful hits - misses will not be shown to us - but meanwhile the statistics are in favor of misses and unsuccessful hits when no defeat was inflicted. This, just, is normal - we use this statistics in calculations - but, I repeat: high cost and shortage. And we are working on it - it was with this priority goal that we created the fund. It turns out that the same Lancet can be ten times cheaper. Maybe the statistics will change a little towards "gaps" due to simpler solutions, but the number of applications will increase by a factor - and there are already ready-made prototypes that will have to go into series. This direction is only developing and in the future will occupy its stable niche.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

Caesar on Tatra 815-7 chassis, donated by Denmark in UKR service.