How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

We are people with opinions, experience, and knowledge? Also, I hate to break this to you, but no one in this thread is talking to the Ukrainian Govt, let alone telling them what to do. We talking to each other, and in this specific case we're trading opinions.

Er, by "we" I mean generally the West, not the people posting to this thread.  I thought that would be obvious.

3 hours ago, JonS said:

In my opinion, DPICM is primarily a defensive weapon which can be effective in certain circumstances. In my opionion it was developed at a time when neither precision artillery nor precision air-to-ground weapons were serious propositions, and so a (largely successful) effort was made to smear-out out the payload of rounds across the target area to increase the likelihood of achieving some effect. In my opinion the relative utility of DPICM has declined with the advent of of PGMs, and while the dud rate might be better now for routine targets the risk/reward calculus doesn't justify it when there are other better options available.

Ukraine has mass scale exposure to all of these weapons, including PGMs.  Yet they still want DPICMs.  So either some of the smartest people in uniform with the most experience fighting this type of warfare just got stupid, or they have ideas on how to use these effectively.  My money is on them having something in mind that you're not taking into consideration.

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Would my opinion see more friendly combat casualties? Maybe, although that would be very hard to prove either way (and don't forget to count the EOD guys who have a bad day). Would my opinion lead to fewer children and civilian deaths and injuries? I think that's pretty clearly a yes.

Am I comfortable trading soldiers for civilians? Of course yes. That's the /point/.

This is what I'm talking about.  You have experience, you are not a dumb guy, but compared to the people asking for these things your opinion is not in the same league.  You might turn out to be more correct than the people successfully fighting this war, but there is a pretty good possibility you might be wrong.  Given they are the ones fighting for their lives, they are the ones who should make the decision and not anybody else.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I just read this

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

A solid point on PGM.  DPICM was really a better way to distribute lethality before PGM.  With PGM a few rounds can do the damage of many dumb, even DPICM.  However, what we do not know is the ammo situation of PGM in this war, nor that of dumb rounds either.  I doubt this decision ( if it is indeed not just a rumour) was taken on a whim “Oh hey, that’s right we got all those DPICM rounds” *slaps forehead*.  I suspect that this decision is an offset to another development, shortfalls in PGM ammo most likely.

I have a strong suspicion that shortages is part of the reason for the request.  In fact, there was some OSINT discussion about this a day or two ago and posted here.  Some analysis of the various HIMARS munitions on hand and that the US is running uncomfortably low of the stuff it feels are needed for its own defense, yet they have stocks stuff it basically has no practical use for.  So it probably is Ukraine asking "hey, we want more HIMARS" and the US saying "well, we only have these DCPICMs available, but you don't want those.  They are icky".  And Ukraine then says, "if that's what you got, then we'll take it.  In case you haven't noticed, we don't really have the luxury of being picky".

Steve

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And Ukraine then says, "if that's what you got, then we'll take it.  In case you haven't noticed, we don't really have the luxury of being picky".

Steve

Another factor, Ukraine has been asking for long range missiles, if one compares the escalation ladder, cluster munitions are the safe pick, and I bet that the attack on apartment blocks in Lviv might potentially have garnered some PR cover in the same tradition as prior shipments of new aid. Certainly European qualms can be assuged by the reminders of Russian terror on civilians.

[Battlefront.com]

1.  GoPro of tank roller in action.  Gives a good glimpse of the mine density (most seem to be AP type):

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14sb6np/luhansk_region_svatovsky_district_tank_heavy_mine/

2.  Article with a little more detail about the T-90 (posted the other day) that was hit by some type of 155 shell with submunitions

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/what_happens_to_a_russian_t_90m_after_being_hit_with_smart_155_type_guided_projectile_video-7231.html

3.  Incredible demonstration of a GLMRS's power.  Check out the shockwave!  Even if the Russians got lucky and weren't shredded by shrapnel, it's hard to imagine either men or vehicle still being serviceable after this hit:

 

4. Post from a guy who has been following the fighting in Bakhmut in some detail is saying that Klishchiivka itself is now a grey zone after Russian forces have retreated.

5.  Not sure why, but Russians are trying to clear mines as well.  Video of a Russian mine roller T-72 getting knocked out after being disabled in a minefield by a mine:

6.  MT-LB VBIED as seen from a drone.  Interesting bit here is that you can see two Russian crewmen jump out after aiming the vehicle at Ukrainian lines.  "Brick on accelerator" method, I think it's being called.

7.  And it seems the Terminators are out and about again, maybe this time not just for TikTok.  Supposedly they are operating in the Avdiivka area:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Rybar disputes the Ukrainian reports of Ukraine having the heights and Russians retreating out of Klishchiivka.  So I guess it's true that Russia got kicked off the heights and out of the town

Steve

 

[womble]

Aren't the early ATACMS cluster munitions? Perhaps UKR value the range for hitting area targets that are currently out of range. What would the M39 do to a helo base?

[Raptor341]

https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/ukrainian_army_mounting_1953_soviet_naval_2m-3_turret_on_flat-bed_kamaz_trucks.amp.html?fbclid=IwAR0GOi69Csf7MhkmnBopjEL7CVA_0b0Iue5luWtzTZp-_XxxGD6HrdFZgIk_aem_AZxl570X9EiO_Z096KBS3fOIKSo81EMuQgc6Gjg6S7rPQA4nwL19Hwalv0l6_MMzQAY
 

One more for Battlefront to model. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[cesmonkey]

I'm not a subscriber to the Washington Post, but this article quotes the post article as saying:

https://www.ibtimes.com/biden-send-banned-cluster-weapons-ukraine-new-800-million-aid-package-3703815

Quote

 The Washington Post reported that the weapon could be an M864 artillery shell, a cluster munition first produced in 1987.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

19 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I'm not a subscriber to the Washington Post, but this article quotes the post article as saying:

https://www.ibtimes.com/biden-send-banned-cluster-weapons-ukraine-new-800-million-aid-package-3703815

 

here is the long article text atm: https://pastebin.com/Ugp0uuQ3

 

[poesel]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

I would point out that lobbing the German 155mm version of FASCAM into what the Russians thought were cleared lanes is how the Ukrainians smashed the Russians's many attempts to take Vuelhedar into smoking wreckage.

I don't think Germany developed its own FASCAM system. The only types I found are of US source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_Anti-Armor_Mine_System and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_denial_artillery_munition.

Maybe you are mixing it up with this shell: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155

[Butschi]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Er, by "we" I mean generally the West, not the people posting to this thread.  I thought that would be obvious.

Ukraine has mass scale exposure to all of these weapons, including PGMs.  Yet they still want DPICMs.  So either some of the smartest people in uniform with the most experience fighting this type of warfare just got stupid, or they have ideas on how to use these effectively.  My money is on them having something in mind that you're not taking into consideration.

This is what I'm talking about.  You have experience, you are not a dumb guy, but compared to the people asking for these things your opinion is not in the same league.  You might turn out to be more correct than the people successfully fighting this war, but there is a pretty good possibility you might be wrong.  Given they are the ones fighting for their lives, they are the ones who should make the decision and not anybody else.

Steve

I'm with @JonS here. "Who are we to tell Ukraine what to do" applies even less if you were referring to the West as a whole, I think. Of course it's Ukrainian soldiers and civilians dying every day plus they have experience we lack, so what they have to say has to carry a huge weight. But we are not just bystanders idly commenting from a safe distance (the last is true, of course). We are supplying and financing this war. What we do or don't do has consequences.

If, as you seen to imply, Ukraine should always get to decide, because they know better anyway, then, consequently, we should just open our arsenals (and bank accounts) and tell Ukraine "help yourself". I know that is what some here have been suggesting since the war started but the larger consensus seems to be that it was, by and large, a wise decision to withhold some weapons and generally escalate slowly.

So, I'm not going into possible moral issues with DPICM. I'll just say: Wether or not we give certain weapons to Ukraine has consequences and either way some responsibility falls back on us. So IMO we have the right or even the duty to tell Ukraine if we think something is a bad idea or even to say we want no part in this.

But maybe this boils down to the old question "If I have someone a gun (or refuse to), am I responsible for what happens afterwards?"

[Maciej Zwolinski]

14 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is something I would have expected to fall within the first days or hours of the counter-attack if I was asked a couple of months ago

You were expecting 1940/1944 or Gulf War rates of advance in an offensive against prepared fortifications while the Ukrainian usual method of attack is "artillery attacks, infantry occupies" (almost always since Kharkiv, i.e. for about a year) and they are attacking with slight advantage  in men, parity in artillery and inferiority in the air? But why?

Apologies in advance if this comes across as aggressive, I am not trying to be insulting, just am honestly baffled on what basis this could be expected to be anything but a bloody slog (with some possibility of breakthrough after a few months of that) and would be interested to hear your reasoning.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

21 minutes ago, Butschi said:

So, I'm not going into possible moral issues with DPICM. I'll just say: Wether or not we give certain weapons to Ukraine has consequences and either way some responsibility falls back on us. So IMO we have the right or even the duty to tell Ukraine if we think something is a bad idea or even to say we want no part in this.

Without addressing specifically the DPICM issue your point is moot because theoretically it covers everything from e.g. nerve gas to helmets. In theory, I would agree with your thesis because of the theoretical example of nerve gas. But in practice we are not talking about nerve gas, just cluster munitions. So my theoretical agreement to your theoretical thesis is totally beside the point at issue.

Re. DPICM, I find the position of trying to second guess Ukrainians re. moral calculus involved in using cluster munitions, killing Russians and saving UKR soldiers lives versuss having to clean up more UXO after the war and possibly causing some post-war civilian casualties as totally undefensible. Their people, their land, their war, their choice. Either the West supports UKR or tries to play out some internal policy issues having this war as the background.

 

[Kinophile]

If this was anything but a war of national,  cultural and societal survival, I'd understand the concerns. But it is.

Anything that can kill Russians quicker and in more numbers shortens the war.

The longer Russians are in Ukraine  the longer more Ukrainians will die.

The future daily cost of UXO is nothing compared to the current daily cost of soldiers and civilians killed. 

Ukraine needs to Kill & Maim as many Russians as possible right now. We've got a munition that can do that? Send it. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

26 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

You were expecting 1940/1944 or Gulf War rates of advance in an offensive against prepared fortifications while the Ukrainian usual method of attack is "artillery attacks, infantry occupies" (almost always since Kharkiv, i.e. for about a year) and they are attacking with slight advantage  in men, parity in artillery and inferiority in the air? But why?

Apologies in advance if this comes across as aggressive, I am not trying to be insulting, just am honestly baffled on what basis this could be expected to be anything but a bloody slog (with some possibility of breakthrough after a few months of that) and would be interested to hear your reasoning.

I was not expecting anything like "1940/1944 or Gulf War".

I was expecting faster progress in reaching the first villages and closing the distance to the main lines of defense. It also seems Ukrainians were expecting faster progress, they have said so themselves. 

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm with @JonS here. "Who are we to tell Ukraine what to do" applies even less if you were referring to the West as a whole, I think. Of course it's Ukrainian soldiers and civilians dying every day plus they have experience we lack, so what they have to say has to carry a huge weight. But we are not just bystanders idly commenting from a safe distance (the last is true, of course). We are supplying and financing this war. What we do or don't do has consequences.

If, as you seen to imply, Ukraine should always get to decide, because they know better anyway, then, consequently, we should just open our arsenals (and bank accounts) and tell Ukraine "help yourself". I know that is what some here have been suggesting since the war started but the larger consensus seems to be that it was, by and large, a wise decision to withhold some weapons and generally escalate slowly.

So, I'm not going into possible moral issues with DPICM. I'll just say: Wether or not we give certain weapons to Ukraine has consequences and either way some responsibility falls back on us. So IMO we have the right or even the duty to tell Ukraine if we think something is a bad idea or even to say we want no part in this.

But maybe this boils down to the old question "If I have someone a gun (or refuse to), am I responsible for what happens afterwards?"

Some good points but also only half the story.  I would buy into this line of thought if we had the same framework of inaction. “(Or refuse to)”.  We in the West have a very bad habit of pointing fingers and passing judgement on “bad actions” but we also tend to quickly grab the remote and change the channel when our own inaction causes immense suffering - Rwanda anyone?  Syria?  

The only real thing we can rely on that is not solely “opinion” is the law - which in reality is a floating point of agreement at best; however, it is what we have to base some level of objectivity upon.  In this case the use of cluster munitions is not against the law of armed conflict (obviously with all the “proper military use” provisions).  Further neither party involved in this current situation, US and UA, are parties to the cluster munitions treaty.  

So unless other Western nations want to try and extort a forced acceptance of that treaty by withholding other military aid to Ukraine - which frankly in the middle of an existential war is one helluva dick move - while at the same time conveniently ignoring the consequences of pulling that support (ie inaction), then beyond making poopy faces and trying not to think about how fast we would likely abandon that same treaty were we in Ukraine’s position then we are where we are.

If Ukraine did start using chemical weapons or dropping napalm on civilians then we do not need an opinion, we have the LOAC to point to and say “hey that is illegal”.  Which then raises the spectre of support to an unlawful war…something Iran and China appear to have no problems with.

Edited July 7, 2023 by The_Capt

[Ultradave]

When I was in the Army DPICM was *just* being fielded in any significant numbers. The original idea for usage was to fire it at a target of opportunity - a mass of armor forming up to attack in front of you, but more likely a mass of armor/vehicles in the second echelon that was forming up to exploit or continue the advance, in order to halt that advance through lack of support. We didn't have unlimited supplies so it was planned to be used when it could be most effective, usually in a Time on Target, Battalion FFE.

Since we expected in Europe to be completely on the defensive as the Soviet Army advanced into West Germany, unexploded munitions were not really seen as an issue, since they would be the Soviet's problem, behind their lines. (of course the pie-in-the-sky projection was that all civilians would have evacuated west in advance of the Soviet Army, and we know that wouldn't be the case - not everyone anyway.)

In Ukraine with a more static, back and forth front line, this is much more of a concern, for obvious reasons.

Just a little background from the olden days 

Dave

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Since we expected in Europe to be completely on the defensive as the Soviet Army advanced into West Germany, unexploded munitions were not really seen as an issue, since they would be the Soviet's problem, behind their lines. 

Behind their lines in the North German Plain....That line may explain a slightly different take by our German members

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The only real thing we can rely on that is not solely “opinion” is the law - which in reality is a floating point of agreement at best; however, it is what we have to base some level of objectivity upon.

In legal theory, there is a strong argument that what we traditionally call international law is actually not law, given the absence of anything resembling a sovereign imposing and enforcing the rules. So you can also put the word "law" in quotes. That level of objectivity is indeed low (no pun intended). 

[Carolus]

Germany deployed its remaining Patriot near Vilnius for the NATO summit, in case Putin feels tempted by having every NATO head of state in one place (obviously he wouldn't- the strategic value of eliminitating a head of states in democracies where it is normal to replace them regularly is minimal compared to dictators and warlords who rely on networks of personal loyalty).

The Vilnius summit will probably tell the public a bit more about where Western strategy (insofar it exists) might be headed. Although I am far to jaded to expect much positive news from this agglomeration of politicians.

Also looks like the Germans could learn something from Ukrainians about vehicle dispersion.

 

 

[Tux]

6 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Also looks like the Germans could learn something from Ukrainians about vehicle dispersion.

Yeah, that is a defence that does not expect to be attacked, if ever I’ve seen one. 

[Carolus]

 

This French-speaking Twitter person claims to have spotted "Griffon" APCs from France in Ukraine. 

The significance is that these are brand new, entered service in 2022, and so far unannounced(?).

Wheeled, entry/exit by ramp, driver, co-driver + 8 passengers in the back.

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[chuckdyke]

Check this movie lol.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

comments from yesterday: 

• The Offensive clearly progressing slower than expected. This is stated also by the Ukrainian president.
• the initial assaults failed to achieve their objectives. For example, creating conditions to commit reserves to breach the main lines and exploit
• now we are in an attritional phase and we are likely to see alternating phases of attrition and attempts to advance, enabled by the attrition.
• both sides use artillery decisively and then exploit
  • artillery ammunition as "the sand it the hourglass".
  • it is significant how much artillery ammo Ukrainian use to achieve any given goal
• artillery production rates are going to become more and more important
  • seems like this is going to towards equality between the sides in the long run