How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Nice 4th of July fireworks. Drone footage of the Donetsk/Makeevka explosion:

 

https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1676500561057775618?s=20

Edited July 5, 2023 by DesertFox

[poesel]

Mine defusing - I guess this is a wound up coil that unscrews the fuze from the mine with inertia.
Very nifty design. Is that new or has it been around for longer?

 

 

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1676504269053108227

Here some pictures and geolocation from Makiivka strike- Russians are spreading that UA targeted hospital (red lines on picture)with dozens wounded. So Ukrainans released a clip from drone showing how they collect ammo in building near by, and another one (the spectacular looking fireworks) that show how precise strike was.

15 hours ago, DesertFox said:

We talked about the russian military complex and its production capacity a few pages back. Meanwhile:

Commentary from person doing this video: " This is as old as mammoth's sh*t, can't believe they use them".

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Beleg85

[Teufel]

11 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Just a small reminder, this is Ukrainian blood, Ukrainian land, Ukrainian water, Ukrainian food, Ukrainian people who are arguably at most risk from nuclear escalation in Ukraine, and not even Russian civilians need be concerned about Ukraine in terms of death or risk of life, and I definitely think there are major rungs of escalation that may result in damage only occurring in Ukraine, nuclear included. 

There is a lot that the West can do, that precludes it from troops on the ground, or airstrikes or whatnot, certainly the dam destruction seemed to have barely caught a blip in the West, a lot more pressure should be brought to bare on ZNPP incidents occurring, including more neutral personnel, more involvement by neutral states, definitely western pressure on Russia needs to include more international neutral sorta pushing for ZNPP to be monitored, the dam had to my knowledge, no direct repercussions on Russia, in terms of sanctions, equipment to Ukraine, or some semblance of urgency. There is definitely a downside to the West retaining the right of first reply in escalation, and that usually is some sort of mass civilian loss of life has to occur in Ukraine before the West gets up and touts aid to it. 

You guys have pretty much already covered and this post may not be much of contribution. However, please do keep in mind that Russians, including civilian population, think that they are already at war with NATO. Can be debated if proxy or not but that don’t matter, in their minds they are waging existential war with NATO. From the perspective of us average citizens this is absurd, delusional and borderline laughable.

Putin and the whole Russian state are criminals, not meant in the legal sense but in their minds. Been criminals all their lives and they only perceive the World through the eyes of such. Diplomacy is sign of weakness, willingness to negotiate is sign of weakness, lack of retaliation is sign of weakness. The only thing criminals understand is not the law or punishment but sheer force, or if you so wish violence.

But even criminals have self preservation as the rest of us, how would otherwise Mafia families maintain their existence? To this end we must consider the power differential between groups, which may or usually are unconsciously agreed upon by both parties. 

They are both well aware of their own capabilities of dominance, verbal or physical as in threats and violence. What Russians did was to clearly underestimate the effectiveness of verbal dominance - threats. When that didn’t work they retorted to capabilities of violence that were evidently higher in relation to the Ukraine (without willingness of West to engage).

Here the West was clearly not prepared for the actual state of the Russian army. Meaning, everyone has bought into the non-verbal and verbal communication of “they are not to be messed with!”. Which is only useful until you run into someone not afraid of you. Like a bully that gets his *** kicked and exposed by the little guy they picked on, they lose their capability of verbal and in fact physical dominance. Nobody is afraid of them anymore, the group dissolves as the leader got his *** whopped in front of the whole school. He is alone and his reign of terror is over.

Bullies never accept responsibility for their actions, they don’t accept accountability and they will not tolerate punishment. Unless that punishment, third party or not, is kicking their *** and asking if they want more?

Could that bully escalate by using for example weapons? Yes! Is it likely? Most probably not! The bully may name drop someone known to be real bad *** that will retaliate, maybe his big brother, but more often than not. Particularly if knowing the little guy also has bigger, stronger and meaner friends or big brothers.

Putin is an exposed bully, he’s gone silent on the threats of nuclear war. Why? Because when he dropped the name of that badass brother that will retaliate for him - the other side said, you do that! We’ll kick his *** too, then we’ll come after you, and you know our capabilities of violence are far bigger than yours.

Please see this interview for perspectives from someone who was bullied by Putin.

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Teufel

[buena]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Jaw-dropping footage of yesterday's strike at RU ammo depot, a must watch!

 

I hope they warned the residents living nearby...

[akd]

Sladkov says RU abandoned Klishchiivka, but UKR telegram says no. Situation seems perilous for RU.

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by akd

[kraze]

46 minutes ago, Teufel said:

 

Please see this interview for perspectives from someone who was bullied by Putin.

Khodorkovsky is Prigozhin's camp. I wouldn't put much trust in his words.

[akd]

SMArt 155 round kills T-90M:

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by akd

[Teufel]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Khodorkovsky is Prigozhin's camp. I wouldn't put much trust in his words.

That is new information for me, not arguing you are wrong, but could you please elaborate? And secondly, does it mean that what he says is not true (because he doesn’t like Putin after spending decade in Russian prison)?

Edited July 5, 2023 by Teufel

[DesertFox]

Seems like Yevkurov also gone AWOL...

 

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1676563010192547841?s=20

[kevinkin]

Tiny report with a small pearl of wisdom:

"The question is, how do you take a front line that is more than a thousand kilometers long and turn it into more of a problem for Russia than for Ukraine?" he said. "That is why you are seeing multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine."

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-russia-lost-half-combat-effectiveness-tanks-counter-offensive-2023-7

So in terms of maneuver warfare, the length of the front with respect to the correlation of forces is a critical vulnerability to exploit via recon pull i.e. finding gaps rather than forcing them open with greater causalities. 

[DesertFox]

 

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1676566943921319941?s=20

[chuckdyke]

I admire this man.

[Yet]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/03/the-ukrainian-army-can-finally-recover-those-three-leopard-2r-breaching-vehicles-it-lost/

 

which means: advance...!

recovering is one... but i wonder what the state of the vehicles the RU allowed for and if any can be repaired before winter.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Teufel said:

That is new information for me, not arguing you are wrong, but could you please elaborate? And secondly, does it mean that what he says is not true (because he doesn’t like Putin after spending decade in Russian prison)?

in his twitter he basically dropped all pretense and openly supported Prig's "coup", urging people to join him. Of course he is pissed off about putin's jailtime, but supporting another putin very much shows that his only problem with the "evil regime" is only personal. He's perfectly fine if filth is running Russia as long as it's his filth.

[Taranis]

A little off topic but still a consequence of the war in Ukraine :
The Leclerc tank undergoing rejuvenation

Quote

 

By 2029, 200 units are scheduled for modernization, but according to some experts, the planned retrofit falls short in light of the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

Launched in 2015, the Leclerc tank renovation program is entering its active phase. The first two upgraded tanks, called XLR, were delivered in June, and sixteen more are expected to follow by the end of the year. The objective set by the French-German defense procurement agency is to provide a rejuvenation treatment to all French army tanks.

Considered one of the most advanced heavy tanks in the world when it entered service in 1993, the Leclerc is no longer young and needed to be modernized to remain competitive on the battlefield. After being neglected following the end of the Cold War, the combat tank has become essential again with the war in Ukraine. "It is the only vehicle that combines firepower, mobility, and protection," says Marc Chassillan, a former defense engineer and specialist in land equipment. A modern army cannot do without such vehicles, as the Netherlands realized in the early 2010s when they abandoned their tanks.

The retrofit of the Leclerc tanks overlooks some of the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. For example, nothing has been planned to counter drones, which the Ukrainians extensively use to attack Russian tanks from above, where they are most vulnerable. A 7.62 millimeter machine gun is indeed retained on the turret – it will even be remotely operated from the crew compartment, which was not the case before – but its firing angle will not allow it to aim at the sky. Similarly, no "hard kill" system, capable of intercepting anti-tank missiles by shooting projectiles at them before they hit the crew compartment, will be added to the Leclerc, despite the German Leopard 2, Israeli Merkava, and American Abrams M1 tanks already being equipped with such systems.

 

Source : Le Monde

Edited July 5, 2023 by Taranis

[Kinophile]

53 minutes ago, kraze said:

in his twitter he basically dropped all pretense and openly supported Prig's "coup", urging people to join him. Of course he is pissed off about putin's jailtime, but supporting another putin very much shows that his only problem with the "evil regime" is only personal. He's perfectly fine if filth is running Russia as long as it's his filth.

Well put. Just because someone is "Opposition" to Putin doesn't mean they're Good People, it's probably just that they're not in power. 

[Kinophile]

39 minutes ago, Taranis said:

A little off topic but still a consequence of the war in Ukraine :
The Leclerc tank undergoing rejuvenation

Source : Le Monde

Literally fighting the last war, I.e. Iraq/Afghanistan. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Sladkov says RU abandoned Klishchiivka, but UKR telegram says no. Situation seems perilous for RU.

 

The Russian telegrammer yurasumy offers another variation, in that it was the heights before the town that the Ukrainians captured, but the Russians subsequently drove them off of it ... maybe.
 

Quote

This morning we received a message about the surrender of Kleshcheevka by our units. Or rather, not even the village itself, but an important strategic height to the west of it, which further makes it pointless to hold all this territory up to the river. Bakhmutovka, for which our units rolled back.

https://t.me/yurasumy/9691

Quote

The world today with "Yury Podolyak"
They report from the localities that they seem to have knocked out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the fortification on a hill west of Kleshcheevka. For this, aviation and reserves (5 odshbr) were involved

https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/18786

Thank God. The loss of this position would have very significant negative consequences.

https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/18786
 

Quote

️Today, an attempt to counterattack by the forces of the 5th Specialized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the gray zone in the direction of the village of Klescheevka, Artemovsky district of the DPR, was thwarted. The aviation and artillery forces of the Southern Group are currently destroying the remnants of the enemy. Loss of controlled positions is not allowed.

 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

The Russian telegrammer yurasumy offers another variation, in that it was the heights before the town that the Ukrainians captured, but the Russians subsequently drove them off of it ... maybe.
 

https://t.me/yurasumy/9691

https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/18786
 

 

“Loss of controlled positions is not allowed.”  You also aren’t supposed to tear off that label on your mattress, however….

somehow that last sentence makes me think the preceding stuff is just BS.

[sburke]

15 hours ago, Carolus said:

Additionally, Xi Jinping has made it state policy to become as food independent as possible and they have already been making progress over last year. And if the going gets tough, the CCP has zero problems to starve part of its population to stay in power.

So, in total, I find very little to be positive about a possible radiation leak from ZNPP.

The CCP starving part of its population is not much of an option. Right now the CCP has a big problem in just the employment and housing areas that are causing significant stress. If you think that starving them is not going to be an issue I think you need to look more closely at the current state of social relations in China. It isn’t so rock solid as you seem to think it is. 

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

The Russian telegrammer yurasumy offers another variation, in that it was the heights before the town that the Ukrainians captured, but the Russians subsequently drove them off of it ... maybe.
 

Looking at a topographical map, it seems like the difference between controlling the heights west of the town versus controlling the town is negligible - the town runs about 3km along the base of a ridge line, and is only 500m or so wide (up to 1km at the widest point). If anyone controls the ridge line, the town below looks like it is basically a shooting range,

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The CCP starving part of its population is not much of an option. Right now the CCP has a big problem in just the employment and housing areas that are causing significant stress. If you think that starving them is not going to be an issue I think you need to look more closely at the current state of social relations in China. It isn’t so rock solid as you seem to think it is. 

Stress in what way? 

Because yes, there are people protesting about the banking crisis just as they did against Chinese covid lockdowns. Chinese grandmas crying because they lost their entire life savings when their bank account got scrapped. And, in a strange parallel to Russia, they are not protesting the CCP. They are asking the CCP to help because the local governor probaly did something wrong and nefarious, and if only Mao knew, he would sweep down from the heavens and restore justice and order.

The boyars are pressing the people behind the back of the omni-tzar, again.

And the only footage are leaked, shaky mobile phone videos from a student who happens to be nearby. About 20 metres from the protesting group of a dozen with signs are about 60 guys, half in green uniforms, half in white civilian shirts, waiting for the word "Go" to pack these people into vans. And that's the last we will see of some of them.

None of these protests are even really noticed because cyberspace and public media are 100% under control in China. There are probably more Western people who know about these protests in China than mainland Chinese. Also because a significant minority of China is living in abject poverty and on the verge of starvation, and has never seen something outside their valley that is being used as an industrial waste disposal site.

The membership of the CCP is swelling, their psyop and espionage operations in China and in the West are growing daily. Chinese students who go to Western universities to study engineering are burning posters that show the Tianmen Square because this Western made-up event is an insult to China.

I don't see any stress. Xi Jinping has managed to create a system which can absorb a large degree of civil unhappiness, much better than the Russian system. 

Is it unbreakable? No, no human system is.

Is it rather stable while millions of Chinese are living on literal garbage dumps and would worship an umbrella on their knees if they were told that Xi's hand had touched it once? Yes.

Edited July 5, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Nice 4th of July fireworks. Drone footage of the Donetsk/Makeevka explosion:

 

https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1676500561057775618?s=20

This one is nuts.  You can see the electrical grid melting down as transformers on power poles start to go (the blue flashes).  That probably did more damage than the loss of ammunition.

[FancyCat]

IAEA press release, part most important quoted below. So far they only have partial access to certain areas.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-171-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Quote

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts present at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) have in recent days and weeks inspected parts of the facility – including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond – and have also conducted regular walkdowns across the site, so far without observing any visible indications of mines or explosives, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

The IAEA experts have requested additional access that is necessary to confirm the absence of mines or explosives at the site, Director General Grossi said. In particular, access to the rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential, as well as access to parts of the turbine halls and some parts of the cooling system at the plant, he added.