How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So if Russia is ramping up military industrial production, why is there a shortage of artillery ammunition?  Further if Russia’s high tech/electronics is the main focus then why are they also not improving ISR or PGM?

Russia is not doing well in many regards, I have understood that much through reading this thread and other sources.

But isn't the shell shortage limited yo certain localities?

Some Ukrainian soldiers claim that in their sector, Russian artillery is as unrelenting as ever and it is their own side which is struggling with ammo. They have some to fire, just not to fire as much as they would want to. 

Meanwhile the EU ammo program is bogging down in EU procedures.

 

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Russia is not doing well in many regards, I have understood that much through reading this thread and other sources.

But isn't the shell shortage limited yo certain localities?

Some Ukrainian soldiers claim that in their sector, Russian artillery is as unrelenting as ever and it is their own side which is struggling with ammo. They have some to fire, just not to fire as much as they would want to. 

Meanwhile the EU ammo program is bogging down in EU procedures.

 

Latest article I can find on the subject points to a generalized shortage.  High concentrations are more likely the locality phenomenon if this is the case. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/04/05/when-will-ammunition-shortage-silence-russias-artillery/?sh=3d8071c36d95

UA is also struggling with ammunition however they need far less because they have  a much greater ISR advantage (estimates seem to show that the UA is firing about 20-25% as much artillery and achieving better effects with it).

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

How Russia is becoming increasingly isolated ... or not!

 

[sburke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-die-under-mysterious-circumstances-095451323.html

[Teufel]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

Russia is not doing well in many regards, I have understood that much through reading this thread and other sources.

But isn't the shell shortage limited yo certain localities?

Some Ukrainian soldiers claim that in their sector, Russian artillery is as unrelenting as ever and it is their own side which is struggling with ammo. They have some to fire, just not to fire as much as they would want to. 

Meanwhile the EU ammo program is bogging down in EU procedures.

 

There were discussions of restarting production of Sovjet-type 122mm in countries that were part of the Warsaw-pact. For example Bulgaria;

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/bulgaria-resumes-production-of-122mm-shells-for-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-nyt/

https://www.technology.org/2023/02/24/for-ukraine-only-bulgaria-restarts-production-of-soviet-era-122-mm-artillery-shells/

Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania;

https://www.rferl.org/amp/ukraine-artillery-shells-czech-poland-lithuania-russia-122mm-howitzer/32183700.html

Ukraine starts own production;

https://www.technology.org/2022/12/15/ukraine-launched-its-own-production-of-152-mm-and-122-mm-artillery-shells/

Also, Bulgaria has yet to join coalition of EU countries that procure weapons for Ukraine;

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/15/7407058/index.amp

This last aspect is important as Bulgaria, see this last link for ref. is country with significant potential to restart production of Sovjet-type weaponry.

We are all aware that this is easier said than done, that these shells are not nearly as accurate as the NATO-standard shells. But we must also remember that the number of Sovjet-era systems are still at this point significant part of Ukrainian capabilities. Russians are not sitting around but are obviously ramping up their own capabilities. Upgrading and restoring capabilities is however in progress, simultaneously for NATO-shells and per above not to forget about these Sovjet-types.

It’s no secret that Ukraine is not on parity with Russians in terms of shells. As The_Capt pointed out, there is also the aspect of ISR that allows Ukraine to be more effective. It’s not the Russian “spray and pray” method that must be fed with substantial amounts of shells to make sure they can hit anything really.

Impossible to predict where production will be in the coming months for us on the outside. All we know is that there are activities to ramp up production for Ukraine, published and most probably outside of public eye.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Teufel

[kevinkin]

Nothing really that scintillating, but the summary is a good reminder:

“Putin and his whole system now face a dilemma,” Mr. Petrov said. “If you keep the principle of loyalty as more important than effectiveness, then there won’t be the risks that were associated with the mutiny. But there won’t be any hope for a more effective functioning of the system, either.”

https://dnyuz.com/2023/07/04/after-armed-rebellion-putin-tries-to-reinforce-his-defenses/

 

 

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

UA is also struggling with ammunition however they need far less because they have  a much greater ISR advantage (estimates seem to show that the UA is firing about 20-25% as much artillery and achieving better effects with it).

Thank you for the reminder that a shell is not thr same as another shell, depending on what systems are supporting it and enhance its effects.

27 minutes ago, Teufel said:

There were discussions of restarting production of Sovjet-type 122mm in countries that were part of the Warsaw-pact. For example Bulgaria;

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/bulgaria-resumes-production-of-122mm-shells-for-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-nyt/

https://www.technology.org/2023/02/24/for-ukraine-only-bulgaria-restarts-production-of-soviet-era-122-mm-artillery-shells/

Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania;

https://www.rferl.org/amp/ukraine-artillery-shells-czech-poland-lithuania-russia-122mm-howitzer/32183700.html

Ukraine starts own production;

https://www.technology.org/2022/12/15/ukraine-launched-its-own-production-of-152-mm-and-122-mm-artillery-shells/

Also, Bulgaria has yet to join coalition of EU countries that procure weapons for Ukraine;

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/15/7407058/index.amp

This last aspect is important as Bulgaria, see this last link for ref. is country with significant potential to restart production of Sovjet-type weaponry.

We are all aware that this is easier said than done, that these shells are not nearly as accurate as the NATO-standard shells. But we must also remember that the number of Sovjet-era systems are still at this point significant part of Ukrainian capabilities. Russians are not sitting around but are obviously ramping up their own capabilities. Upgrading and restoring capabilities is however in progress, simultaneously for NATO-shells and per above not to forget about these Sovjet-types.

It’s no secret that Ukraine is not on parity with Russians in terms of shells. As The_Capt pointed out, there is also the aspect of ISR that allows Ukraine to be more effective. It’s not the Russian “spray and pray” method that must be fed with substantial amounts of shells to make sure they can hit anything really.

Impossible to predict where production will be in the coming months for us on the outside. All we know is that there are activities to ramp up production for Ukraine, published and most probably outside of public eye.

Thank you for pulling these sources together.

It is an important reminder that many things happen behind the curtains. I always hope they are more than I hear about, and with impending good results.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

But isn't the shell shortage limited yo certain localities?

Some Ukrainian soldiers claim that in their sector, Russian artillery is as unrelenting as ever and it is their own side which is struggling with ammo. They have some to fire, just not to fire as much as they would want to. 

There's a lot of politics in this too. I don't think Ukraine is ever going to say "Thanks, we're good now, we got all the ammo we need". The more the better.

[sburke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-reports-particularly-fruitful-few-114518802.html

[Sarjen]

Russia is using chemical weapons at Bakhmut. 
 

 

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-reports-particularly-fruitful-few-114518802.html

Yep. All going into the correct direction. They are losing men and material left, right and center.

 

 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Russia is using chemical weapons at Bakhmut. 
 

 

Ugh! Lewisite. Thats a big one if true.

[kevinkin]

UAVs and connectivity advances:

 V-band is unique because it causes radio signals to resonate with oxygen molecules in the air– a phenomenon called oxygen absorption. The size of the oxygen molecule almost perfectly resonates with radio frequency signals attenuation, which creates a curtain of invisibility between a tactical team and its adversary. Within the V-band, connectivity truly has a quality of low probability of detection.

Cloaking à la Star Trek.

Now, if they could do this with CO2 maybe I won't feel guilty lighting up the BBQ this July 4.

https://defenseopinion.com/as-ukraine-demonstrates-data-security-is-a-big-vulnerability-for-drones/412/

  

[Bulletpoint]

45 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Russia is using chemical weapons at Bakhmut. 
 

 

Wouldn't really be surprised if true, but I wonder why they would use something like Lewisite when they have stockpiles of VX and Novichok nerve agents.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Sarjen]

Don’t know if it’s true, but if fighter jets are coming after the counter offensive than the Ukrainians are dying for nothing. 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-not-receive-fighter-jets-061255539.html
 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Sarjen said:

Don’t know if it’s true, but if fighter jets are coming after the counter offensive than the Ukrainians are dying for nothing. 

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-not-receive-fighter-jets-061255539.html
 

This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.

 This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...

"The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."

"Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."

"We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Latest article I can find on the subject points to a generalized shortage.  High concentrations are more likely the locality phenomenon if this is the case. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/04/05/when-will-ammunition-shortage-silence-russias-artillery/?sh=3d8071c36d95

UA is also struggling with ammunition however they need far less because they have  a much greater ISR advantage (estimates seem to show that the UA is firing about 20-25% as much artillery and achieving better effects with it).

 

There is also the ample evidence that Russia is getting shells from outside sources, such as Iran, China, and possibly North Korea.  How they are getting them is cloudy because it isn't clear anybody but Iran is sending them directly to Russia.  There's also SOOOOOOO much Soviet and Russian made shells out there that re-importing from prior Russian/Soviet sales is hard to track.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Nothing really that scintillating, but the summary is a good reminder:

“Putin and his whole system now face a dilemma,” Mr. Petrov said. “If you keep the principle of loyalty as more important than effectiveness, then there won’t be the risks that were associated with the mutiny. But there won’t be any hope for a more effective functioning of the system, either.”

https://dnyuz.com/2023/07/04/after-armed-rebellion-putin-tries-to-reinforce-his-defenses/

 

 

Yup, this is classic autocracy dilemma in a nutshell.  Capable people often aren't satisfied with regime imposed constraints, therefore they are prone to having their loyalty questioned.  Those willing to sell their soul don't tend to be all that capable.  As a regime starts to fall apart the leadership more often than not chooses loyalty over capability, which usually produces a death spiral.  Sometimes it takes decades to play out, but eventually it does.  External stressors, such as war, tend to compress the cycle.

Referencing something I wrote many pages ago, Putin's regime has been on this path increasingly since 2011 and it is accelerating because of the war.  Hard to imagine it can be sustained for much longer, especially as the cracks are getting wider and more obvious (e.g. Prig and company), but Putin's regime has shown it is not easily collapsed.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

I wonder what the night will bring. Several people talked about escalations from Russian side because it is fourth of July so it would be extra FU to Americans.

The chemical weapons might be it. Or we might see more.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Sarjen said:

Don’t know if it’s true, but if fighter jets are coming after the counter offensive than the Ukrainians are dying for nothing. 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-not-receive-fighter

This is being reported as a conditional, but I’m pretty sure the original statement was just about a realistic time-frame (beyond that of a Summer counter-offensive).

[DesertFox]

21 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder what the night will bring. Several people talked about escalations from Russian side because it is fourth of July so it would be extra FU to Americans.

The chemical weapons might be it. Or we might see more.

Might be this one:

 

 

[dan/california]

This would be the absolute visually confirmed minimum, still quite interesting.

Edited July 4, 2023 by dan/california

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is also the ample evidence that Russia is getting shells from outside sources, such as Iran, China, and possibly North Korea.  How they are getting them is cloudy because it isn't clear anybody but Iran is sending them directly to Russia. 

North Korea & China also have a border with Russia, so there's nothing to be done about stopping it.

If they cared, they could just repaint the shells and no one would know - except for all those three letter agencies who know it already anyway.