How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Well can’t say your pessimism is unwarranted but regarding iPhones, wasn’t that the first question that woman asked when her son was capture?. We also are talking Oligarchs who don’t live in shacks that are the ones we are hitting with sanctions. 

during the "coup" Prig was getting support and approval from russians that putin was getting in '00s. I don't think what oligarchs think even matters at this point. 1917 happened because Nikolai II lost the war so russians put in power those that would not lose again. And this wasn't 1917 - yet what we saw was that there is a high chance that a bunch of zeks could've taken Moscow and looted Rubliovka.

if anything oligarchs will be the first to get killed once russians take to the streets because the war was lost. Not their first time.

Edited July 2, 2023 by kraze

[chris talpas]

Latest Perun this week discussing Prig’s mutiny 

 

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

during the "coup" Prig was getting support and approval from russians that putin was getting in '00s. I don't think what oligarchs think even matters at this point. 1917 happened because Nikolai II lost the war so russians put in power those that would not lose again. And this wasn't 1917 - yet what we saw was that there is a high chance that a bunch of zeks could've taken Moscow and looted Rubliovka.

if anything oligarchs will be the first to get killed once russians take to the streets because the war was lost. Not their first time.

Concur. 

The options here are that a faction in the power vertical takes power to forestall a spontaneous explosion or the spontaneous explosion happens on its own. 

[pintere]

Maybe Ukraine would be better off launching their summer offensive in Luhansk this year, with the aim of capturing Starobilsk. Though it wouldn’t be as decisive as reaching the Sea of Azov, they’d have far fewer minefields to contend with. If it really is the case that Ukraine is at a critical disadvantage without western jets, then it might be worth reconsidering their strategy so that they can still score a major victory with a lower likelihood of failure. This ought to keep the western supply of arms flowing too.

Then, next summer, they can have another crack at the south with higher quality ground and air forces. 

[akd]

Part 2:

 

[FancyCat]

Sanctions are great…..more weapons to Ukraine would be best. Mind you, it’s hard monitoring the transfer of technology when a lot of it is low cost, mass produced chips. The same reality that allows cheap drones bombing more expensive hardware is the same that drives ease of access for Russia to get components. Give more long range missiles to Ukraine, so it can disrupt production and supply.

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 hours ago, womble said:

There's going to have to be some surgery done on the globalised economy. The richer nations have largely managed to amputate Russia from their energy supply chains. Currently, Russian petro is really cheap  because the market for it is small. And China is the largest beneficiary. If "we" got serious, we could buy Saudi oil and gas at market prices and resell it at a loss to the nations that are still dependent on Russian oil. Or we could "persuade" the rest of the extraction industry to increase output to compensate for the loss of Russian hydrocarbons. The bonanza of low priced oil would end, but it wouldn't have started if it wasn't for the war.

None of what needs to be done is without cost. None of it is easy.

If this was feasible it would have been done already. In fact, something similar to this was Plan A in the days following the March '22 invasion but Saudi Arabia and the UAE noped out.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Comments regarding armored vehicles from battalion commander "Spartanets" with the 37th Marine Brigade.

On the AMX-10:

"There was artillery shelling and a shell exploded near the vehicle, the fragments pierced the armour and the ammunition set detonated."

The crew of four inside were all killed, he said.

"The guns are good, the observation devices are very good. But unfortunately there is thin armour and it is impractical to use them in the front line (attack)," Spartanets said.

"There were such cases when a 152-mm shell exploded nearby and the shrapnel penetrated the vehicle," he said

He added that the French AMX-10 also had issues with gear boxes breaking down, possibly due to their use on dirt roads.

On the MRAP and British Husky:

One had some minor shrapnel damage to the hood, which he described as a "weak" point.

"Otherwise, in terms of protection, the vehicle is very cool," he said.

If one runs over a landmine, "a wheel flies off" but the vehicle remains intact, he said.

By contrast, when a Soviet infantry fighting vehicle (BMP or BMD) drives over a tank mine, "it is very sad for the crew and the vehicle", he added.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/thin-armoured-french-tanks-impractical-110407784.html

[cesmonkey]

Pretty-funny trolling from the Ukranian MoD:

 

[sburke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/runners-deliver-flag-bakhmut-nato-095722378.html

[sburke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/40-employees-russian-embassy-leave-103800774.html

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Not to mention collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative, and loss of Ukrainian grain exports worldwide. Russia would undoubtedly stop that if sanctions increase.

I don't think so.  Pretty much any nation could call Russia's bluff on this.  Imagine a shipped flying the flag of a Russian trading partner sailing up to Odessa.  Is Russia likely to sink a civilian ship at all, not to mention one of the few friends it still has?  I don't think so.  Doing this would not only rupture a relationship Russia can ill afford to lose, but it also would mean military escorts from nations Russia would not dare to attack.

Russia was allowed to dictate the grain deal's conditions only because it was the easiest and quickest way to get grain out of Ukraine.  I think Russia knew that at the time and so it caved from its previous position of trying to use the grain as leverage.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

Ukrainian and Russian forces both advancing. Slowly.

__________

Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Maliar said that Russian troops were advancing near Avdiivka, Mariinka, Lyman and Svatove.

"Fierce fighting is going on everywhere," Maliar wrote on social media, adding: "The situation is quite complicated".

Maliar also said Ukrainian troops were advancing with "partial success" on the southern flank of Bakhmut in the east and near Berdyansk and Melitopol in the south.

In the south, she said Ukrainian forces faced "intense enemy resistance, remote mining, deploying of reserves" and were only advancing "gradually".

"They are persistently and unceasingly creating conditions for as fast an advance as possible," she said.

____________

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-says-russian-troops-advancing-180434450.html

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

I never said they have no military value. Here's what I actually said:

I don't think AP mines are extremely effective militarily. They are not completely worthless either, depending on the exact type, but compared to the post-war consequences, they are not worth it.

I was addressing your point in the context of your entire post:

"I don't think AP mines are extremely effective militarily. They are not completely worthless either, depending on the exact type, but compared to the post-war consequences, they are not worth it. That's the reason so many countries have joined the mine ban treaty.

AP mines were not going to change the way the war was going even from the beginning. And even less so now that Russia is probably not going to be doing much more attacking.

About your last point: Yes, if Ukraine starts to use AP mines,then they de-fact take responsibility for cleaning them up after the war. Whereas if only the Russians use them, then Russia has the responsibility for every single mine in Ukraine. How many mobiks would they need to take out with mines in order for that to balance out?"

You are completely downplaying their impact on the war and concluding Ukraine should not use them because they aren't worth it.  I don't see that as being an argument that is supported by the facts.  AP mines are very effective which is why Russia is relying so heavily upon them.

8 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

But no, I didn't watch that movie of the Ukrainian infantry caught in a minefield. I don't think anyone would argue that it's a safe place to be.

It would be a safe place to be if there weren't any mines there.  Which is why it is a mistake to downplay the military usefulness of AP mines because they are, admittedly, awful weapons.

Contrast this with poison gas.  It is both awful and ineffective, which is why nobody uses such weapons.  Mines, on the other hand, are both awful and effective, which explains why nations use them.

Steve

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

In the south, she said Ukrainian forces faced "intense enemy resistance, remote mining, deploying of reserves" and were only advancing "gradually".

Remote mining has become one of the most effective tactics of the second half of this war. It has been specifically brought up by more or less official sources of both sides in the last week. 

[Jr Buck Private]

3 hours ago, pintere said:

Maybe Ukraine would be better off launching their summer offensive in Luhansk this year, with the aim of capturing Starobilsk. Though it wouldn’t be as decisive as reaching the Sea of Azov, they’d have far fewer minefields to contend with. If it really is the case that Ukraine is at a critical disadvantage without western jets, then it might be worth reconsidering their strategy so that they can still score a major victory with a lower likelihood of failure. This ought to keep the western supply of arms flowing too.

Then, next summer, they can have another crack at the south with higher quality ground and air forces. 

I'm starting to wonder if they can pull this off without the F16s.   

[dan/california]

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

My view is pure old school MAD deterrence: 'if one nuke is blown up to create a dirty bomb, mofos, then two do.'

The second would be Kursk NPP, 3GW, just 100km from the frontier.

 

It is REALLY hard to be less sympathetic to Russia than I am. That said there is simply no point in doing things inside Russia that do not not have a more or less military effect, or very directly affect the elites in Moscow and St Petersburg. The elite considers the rest of the population to be herd of domestic animals to be managed for profit, and if anything, cares less for their welfare than most ranchers do their cattle.

Edit:  Added the last five words above for clarity

 

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Some alarms from Russian TGs

Northern flank of Bakhmut. UKR 57th mot.inf.brigade restored own gains, lost two days ago and probably again entered to Berkhivka

The enemy launched counter-offensive toward Berkhivka and could burst into important village on Artiomovsk [former Soviet name of Bakhmut]. Armored group of 57th brigade of AFU could breack through first defense line and enter on outskirts of this strattegical important settlement.

 

Antonivskyi bridge area

Russian attack failed again. 

The battle on Oleshky bridgehead is continue. According to mesages, after commander injury (I remind, clashes are going under continous fire from higher bank of Dnipro) our units withdrew from the bridge and the enemy again took theses positions. The hotel is our. All reprts about elimination of bridgehead turned out untimely

The situation is getting out of control. We have wounded and killed. Yes, khokhol is dying too. But, situation came under their control. We believe. Clashes continue.

As video illustrations - burning Tigr near the bridge and UKR Mavic bombing of Russians in Oleshky

 

The current fighting across the river from Kherson is a classic demonstration of patience by the Ukrainians. The apparently rather large advantage that the higher right bank gives has obviously been there since the day Kherson City fell, but Ukraine let that advantage lie fallow until it could leveraged for larger goals.

Edited July 2, 2023 by dan/california

[chris talpas]

4 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Latest Perun this week discussing Prig’s mutiny 

 

Bizarre don’t know why a twitter link is now showing up in original post when it should be YouTube as seen here

[TheVulture]

6 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Bizarre don’t know why a twitter link is now showing up in original post when it should be YouTube as seen here

The forum software very frequently messes up embedded links in quotations and displays the wrong link when updating the page with new posts - forcing your browser to reload the page fixes it. 

Edited July 2, 2023 by TheVulture

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The elite considers the rest of the population to be herd of domestic animals to be managed for profit, and if anything, cares less for their welfare than most ranchers do their cattle.

Post-Prigs half assed coup so called "elite" and their desires and world view do not matter anymore.
More and more russians now openly voice support for wagnerites because "they get s-it done" (e.g. kill Ukrainians "properly"), it's a delayed time bomb with timer dependent entirely on AFU's successes. In a state where a year ago one would go to jail for a bad retweet - now absolutely nothing happens to people who openly support "terrorists".

Unless "elites" win somehow - that cattle is going to start the Animal Farm.
See, Orwell depicted totalitarian societies really spot on - you run that farm while the cattle is afraid/respectful of your power. But the moment the farmer is seen as weak - well... you read the book, I'm sure.

Edited July 2, 2023 by kraze

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Post-Prigs half assed coup so called "elite" and their desires and world view do not matter anymore.
More and more russians now openly voice support for wagnerites because "they get s-it done" (e.g. kill Ukrainians "properly"), it's a delayed time bomb with timer dependent entirely on AFU's successes.

Unless "elites" win somehow - that cattle is going to start the Animal Farm.

Both agree and disagree. And it depends on the definition of elite as well. The MOD bureaucracy, the rail system, the defense industries supplying the war continue to function, if their normal state can be described as functional. The best cases for Ukraine is obviously either new management taking over that system and telling the army to quit and come home, or so much chaos about who is in charge that the system just stops working.

To the extent that Prigozihn's coup was not simply about maintaining his personal power and position it was a demand for the war to be run more competently. He was met with very little resistance, but not enough actual support to get it done. if the next person to try it explicitly copies the spirit Lenin's original promise of "peace, land, and bread" results might be different.

I do agree that the pre war economic elite becomes less relevant by the day, but at the moment when the Kremlin manages to give direction, they get followed by people in other buildings in Moscow that turn that direction into the detailed orders that make the whole mess sort of work, and they really are the only people that matter, call them what you will.

[FancyCat]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think so.  Pretty much any nation could call Russia's bluff on this.  Imagine a shipped flying the flag of a Russian trading partner sailing up to Odessa.  Is Russia likely to sink a civilian ship at all, not to mention one of the few friends it still has?  I don't think so.  Doing this would not only rupture a relationship Russia can ill afford to lose, but it also would mean military escorts from nations Russia would not dare to attack.

Russia was allowed to dictate the grain deal's conditions only because it was the easiest and quickest way to get grain out of Ukraine.  I think Russia knew that at the time and so it caved from its previous position of trying to use the grain as leverage.

Steve

True, i believe the Turkish Navy is guarding the civilian ships? Or at least mine sweeping in certain areas? 

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

The forum software very frequently messes up embedded links in quotations and displays the wrong link when updating the page with new posts - forcing your browser to reload the page fixes it. 

Thanks thought I was going crazy

[pintere]

2 hours ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I'm starting to wonder if they can pull this off without the F16s.   

We‘ll know the answer to that soon enough. But without them it’ll definitely be much riskier. Those Ka-52s need a tactical solution, and the most promising one seems to be F-16s coupled with western AA missiles.

[poesel]

Germany and Poland quarrel about a repair Hub for Leopards in Poland. A letter of intent exists for 2 months now, but political issues have so far stopped the project (text in German).

Next Monday is a meeting between both ministers of defense. Seems to be the last chance to fix the issue before the NATO summit.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/berlin-und-warschau-streiten-ueber-leopard-werkstatt-a-8a3e52c0-6772-470b-8008-0c1390fb23a7