How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Yet]

13 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

How does this help Ukraine win the war? That is their only concern right now.

it helps: 

- not stepping on your own mines

- taking yourself serious signing treaties in the coming 10 decades

- Being seen as selfconsious helps with the view of Western people and (leftish) politicians. thus aid packages from governments and (more even maybe) not frustrate the open heart of all the individuals and NGOs that provide masses of unseen help to the Ukrainians

Keep the high ground and dont fall into the easy traps of morality.... Whats next when you start passing lines of morality? We talked enough about nazi symbolism, phosphorus bombs, cluster ammunition etc.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Yet

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Yet said:

it helps: 

- not stepping on your own mines

- taking yourself serious signing treaties in the coming 10 decades

- Being seen as selfconsious helps with the view of Western people and (leftish) politicians. thus aid packages from governments and (more even maybe) not frustrate the open heart of all the individuals and NGOs that provide masses of unseen help to the Ukrainians

Keep the high ground and dont fall into the easy traps of morality.... Whats next when you start passing lines of morality? We talked enough about nazi symbolism, phosphorus bombs, cluster ammunition etc.

While I generally agree, the nature of this fight is existential. A lot of things have to be put to the side unfortunately.  Reality trumps what may have been desired. I am sure the UA would prefer not to mine their own country, but considering how many Russia is dumping, that earlier figure of them clearing 10x as many as they laid is likely going to be a low ball for the reality facing Ukraine. 

[_Morpheus_]

Usage of kamikaze drone against infantry:

 

[strac_sap]

19 hours ago, kraze said:

Because for heads to get rolling - they would need to admit they are losing to Ukrainians.

But since they are winning the war against whole NATO - no need to replace anyone.

This above is a symptom above the answer below:

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this has been the trend of his for many years now.  Back in the earlier days of his regime he ran Russia more-or-less like a real government, though obviously not a democratic one.  This included pragmatic engagement with different opinions, especially on economics.  This is why Russia did, in fact, have a pretty impressive recovery from the horror show of the 1990s.  Don't get me wrong, it was still a ruthless and nasty environment, but it was still decently productive.

This really came to an end after many of his picks likely lost the 2011 election and official results were most likely falsified in many cases.  Putin was always happy to let voters decide to elect his people, but once they started to dare to elect others... well now, that's a different story!  His government officially declared most of the evidence showing voter irregularities was generated by the CIA and that was that.

Since that time Putin has increasingly reduced the chances of results being other than what he wants.  Lots and lots of examples of rolling back democratic principles that were not all that strong to begin with.  Since COVID it got worse.

The war seems to have been the final move towards a late stage autocracy where paranoia about losing power becomes the defining feature of the regime.  As one expects, this means loyalty is now pretty much the only reason people have positions of power.  If someone is loyal and can perform their job, then it's an unexpected bonus

One example of this is in 2014 he convened a gathering of some sort to discuss what he was about to do to Ukraine.  He had outside input, though of course he picked what he wanted to hear.  For the 2022 invasion he didn't let anybody know about it until about 2 days before he invaded.  This included many senior members of the government.  Paranoia about leaks maybe made it worse, but I don't think he was interested in opinions since he decided a year earlier to make this war a reality.

Steve

So you are inoculated from making changes because you have in place those you believe you need to stay in power. My opinion is this has gone poorly and well for Ukraine. Poorly because the invasion even happened. Well because the Russians are unable to effectively prosecute the war, can't seem to really learn from their mistakes. Poorly because the Russians (Putin) can't/won't accept the reality of what is happening and withdraw.

[strac_sap]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008893083/ukraine-frontline-hospital.html?smid=em-share

 

Treating the wounded

The Wagner paramilitary group’s brief mutiny in Russia and the fallout from it has eclipsed attention on the war in Ukraine over the past few days. The war slogs on in the meantime: Russian soldiers kill or wound as many as thousands of Ukrainian troops a week, adding to the invasion’s toll.

My colleagues Yousur Al-Hlou, Masha Froliak and Ben Laffin published a striking video today from the front lines, following Ukrainian combat medics. Before the war, they were civilian doctors and nurses. Now, they treat their wounded countrymen while trying to protect themselves from artillery fire and rocket attacks. I urge you to watch the video, which changed how I look at the sacrifice Ukrainians have been forced to make.

I spoke to Yousur and Masha about their experience following these medics for a week.

German: What is the mood among Ukrainian medics, more than a year into the war?

Masha: They compared the grinding workload to the film “Groundhog Day,” reliving the same day over and over and losing sense of whether it’s day or night. They have been living in that hospital, as well as working there. They’re tired. They don’t have a sense of when this is going to end.

What they say in the video has an existential sense to it. They seem motivated to keep going because they feel their country needs them.

Yousur: They’re not just defending their country. They’re defending their families’ lives and their own lives. It’s a very personal struggle. It’s a very personal motivation — a very personal risk.

One of the doctors asks: “How could I not take this on? How could I not be at this frontline hospital? How can I not risk my life if it’s in service of protecting my family and protecting my country?” They acknowledge they have fatigue. They acknowledge that they have doubts about when this conflict might end. But they also have this relentless motivation.

Masha: One doctor said these young soldiers were the same age as her child. She spoke about imagining it’s her child in the operating room — and she just wants to hug and protect them all.

It seems like an important point: As tired as they may be, these doctors are not giving up on the war.

Yousur: That’s right. These doctors were not shy about voicing the toll the war is having on them. But it doesn’t negate their motivation and their hatred toward the enemy — feelings they also expressed openly. These feelings live in parallel.

What were their lives like before the invasion?

Yousur: They were anesthesiologists, surgeons, nurses and so on at civilian hospitals. They were wearing white coats. When the invasion began last year, their lives changed drastically.

It is a nearly universal aspect of the war. Once it began, a lot of civilians suddenly found themselves in service of their country. People volunteered to stitch camouflage nets for soldiers. Grandmothers made Molotov cocktails. Similarly, these doctors began working practically overnight in a frontline military hospital having to tend to the wounded amid rocket fire.

I blame Putin.

Here is another video from Vice to remind us of Putin's crimes:

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by strac_sap

[Huba]

When only tool at your disposal is a drone:

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Huba

[strac_sap]

9 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised).

I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period.

But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane???

Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existential war???

How ignorant and naive can you be?

The far right seems to have a thing for autocrats, thus Putin is alright by them and Ukraine can go to hell for all they care. But the far left for all sorts of reasons seems to come to the same conclusion. Somehow this war was directly started by the US and every chance they get they state the the US should end it. And eastern Europeans wanting to determine their own future through an alliance of mutual protection is imperialism.

I've read articles in which the authors state that the war should be ended immediately in discussions and a treaty, and as examples of how wars must end this way they use both WWI and WWII!  Their ignorance of history is astounding. Every chance I get I try to expand on people's understanding of history so these articles don't hold sway.

I feel some relief that Ukraine, and eastern Europe in general, is no longer ignored or even demeaned by western Europe and the US. They seem to be now considered full fledged humans with the rights to self-determination. But given the extremes of political views that may be tentative.

Coming back to the mines, I feel this is a similar example. I doubt anyone has an interest in mines (especially the Ukrainians who will suffer from them) as a reality but to ignore the fact that the Ukrainians are fighting against an enemy who seems to have no issues with mass murder, torture, and kidnapping feels smug. I will give the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to be even handed in condemning mines, especially for the civilian victims and children that are sure to come.

Edited June 30, 2023 by strac_sap
small additions

[womble]

7 minutes ago, strac_sap said:

...authors state that the war should be ended immediately in discussions and a treaty,... Their ignorance of history is astounding...

Not just history: current events and the future prospects for lasting peace... Naivete perhaps, or something more... directed? Or just a narcissistic unwillingness to accept that their world view is pretty divorced from reality.

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, strac_sap said:

as examples of how wars must end this way they use both WWI and WWII

I realize it is unlikely, but I would like it to end EXACTLY like WW2, with Russia surrendering unconditionally, and some very nice hangings, after scrupulously fair trials of course. It isn't complicated to convict people who confess on video all day, every day, and then on Telegram after dinner.

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, womble said:

Not just history: current events and the future prospects for lasting peace... Naivete perhaps, or something more... directed? Or just a narcissistic unwillingness to accept that their world view is pretty divorced from reality.

Or incompetence or malice.

Look at the persistent anti-nuclear power efforts supported by the Soviet Union. They don’t care which group they use, just the ends that matter.

[womble]

3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Or incompetence or malice.

Look at the persistent anti-nuclear power efforts supported by the Soviet Union. They don’t care which group they use, just the ends that matter.

An example covered by "...more directed", for me. Malice of a hostile state actor directing (via subtle or not-so-subtle means) a mouthpiece.

Incompetence though, that's another possible reason for people to espouse such unrealistic aspirations, and an even better reason to ignore that author...

[strac_sap]

12 minutes ago, womble said:

Not just history: current events and the future prospects for lasting peace... Naivete perhaps, or something more... directed? Or just a narcissistic unwillingness to accept that their world view is pretty divorced from reality.

On top of that, to decry their use of mines, and then not want to supply the weapons and tools they would need instead to defend themselves feels like peak narcissism.

[dan/california]

The war in the marshes moves ever closer to Olsehky. This particular boat full of Russians lost rather badly BTW.

[dan/california]

The next time Steve tells you the game works the way it does because you cannot see ANYTHING out of a Russian tank, he is going to show you this video as proof.

[Jiggathebauce]

45 minutes ago, strac_sap said:

The far right seems to have a thing for autocrats, thus Putin is alright by them and Ukraine can go to hell for all they care. But the far left for all sorts of reasons seems to come to the same conclusion. Somehow this war was directly started by the US and every chance they get they state the the US should end it. And eastern Europeans wanting to determine their own future through an alliance of mutual protection is imperialism.

I've read articles in which the authors state that the war should be ended immediately in discussions and a treaty, and as examples of how wars must end this way they use both WWI and WWII!  Their ignorance of history is astounding. Every chance I get I try to expand on people's understanding of history so these articles don't hold sway.

I feel some relief that Ukraine, and eastern Europe in general, is no longer ignored or even demeaned by western Europe and the US. They seem to be now considered full fledged humans with the rights to self-determination. But given the extremes of political views that may be tentative.

Coming back to the mines, I feel this is a similar example. I doubt anyone has an interest in mines (especially the Ukrainians who will suffer from them) as a reality but to ignore the fact that the Ukrainians are fighting against an enemy who seems to have no issues with mass murder, torture, and kidnapping feels smug. I will give the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to be even handed in condemning mines, especially for the civilian victims and children that are sure to come.

I reject your broad stroke characterization of the "far left" ,as if it has a coherent and unified set of opinions on the war and on states such as Russia and Syria. You haven't listened to very many leftists, because if you do you would know we have incredibly personal and bitter arguments with people who appropriate the aesthetic of revolutionary ideas and ultimately embrace reactionary movements and ideas, and indeed imperialism.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[kraze]

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The next time Steve tells you the game works the way it does because you cannot see ANYTHING out of a Russian tank, he is going to show you this video as proof.

Ah but T62 is a 4 seater tank because it has no auto loader. Only 3 crewmen exited. So either a commander or a gunner got killed.

[Cogust]

Or they drove the tank under-manned, I have heard that they do that quite frequently, probably due to a lack of tank crews and the fact that there is very little tank vs tank combat.

[Vanir Ausf B]

10 minutes ago, kraze said:

So either a commander or a gunner got killed.

He was the first one out. You can see him disappearing into the brush at the :26 mark. The other 3 meet up with him at the end.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[pintere]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

How big would that breakthrough need to be in order to say the offensive succeded? Of course we don't know what the Ukrainian command considers their objective for this counteroffensive, but how much would it take to be seen as a success for the Ukrainian public and from the allies?

Reach the Sea of Azov. Simple as that. Alternatively, if they take Starobilsk I’d say that’d also count as a (admittedly less decisive) operational victory, as this city is a key railroad/logistics hub and its capture would mean the Russians could only route railway traffic through Rostov.

Since Bakhmut was in Ukrainian hands last fall, I don’t think its recapture could be considered the success that Ukraine needs right now, as its value is limited and Ukraine presumably allowed it to fall in order to preserve forces for the summer.

[akd]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

Ah but T62 is a 4 seater tank because it has no auto loader. Only 3 crewmen exited. So either a commander or a gunner got killed.

There is a fourth, but he disappears into the road verge and watches on from afar.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I reject your broad stroke characterization of the "far left" ,as if it has a coherent and unified set of opinions on the war and on states such as Russia and Syria. You haven't listened to very many leftists, because if you do you would know we have incredibly personal and bitter arguments with people who appropriate the aesthetic of revolutionary ideas and ultimately embrace reactionary movements and ideas, and indeed imperialism.

Not on the far left myself...one of those damned moderates...but I pay attention to that space and this is correct. There are quite bitter debates about the war in Ukraine. Normal folks only tend to hear about the tankies like Greenwald but there are plenty on the right correct side of this conflict. Terrell Starr is a good example. h

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by billbindc

[Seedorf81]

BBC on Wagnergroup in Belarus and more.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66052060

[dan/california]

Any more questions why Ukraine wants ATACMS?

[Vic4]

The sty thickens..

(Ukr) Intelligence chief: Russia's FSB is assigned to kill Prigozhin.

https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-chief-russias-fsb-assigned-to-kill-prigozhin/

 

[dan/california]

Really cut up tape, but something put a shell on the bulls eye.