How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Europe contains multiple thousands of Strom Shadows with no other meaning for existence than fighting Russia. I believe the US has less than 1000 ATACMS and they have lots of "prior commitments" with the US being global military power and all.

Wikipedia says there are 3700 ATACMS manufactured in total. A lot of those are "awaiting upgrade" though, and I can't offer a guess how useful the unupgraded ones would be to UKR at this point.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I have to give credit to the Brits for supplying the Storm Shadows.   Those could be used to attack inside Russia but they weren't afraid of escalation.   Seems like they made it easier for the USA to supply ATACMS.   I'm a bit of a hot head of course, but if Ukraine uses ATACMS to fire at targets inside Russia, then so what.  It seems fair to me.   

While I'm sure most of the folk here would, in isolation, agree that UKR firing SS and ATACMS at "legit military and logistical targets" inside Russia-proper should be allowed, it might be too-swift a temperature jump for that frog we're trying to boil without it feeling like it needs to leap out of the pot.

What I'd do is set up a lot of target solutions for inside-Russia nodes, and hit them all with as many launchers simultaneously as could be brought into range, just once right at the point of smashing through Russian lines in Ukraine. "Oops, sorry. Won't do it again."  But the damage will be done, the disruption maximised, and we can all live with the bluster that will dribble out of the Kremlin. Lots of preconditions to set, like better missile defense across UKR (there would definitely be a Kindjahl tantrum) and alternative arrangements for any HIMARS targets that would be left un-serviced by the alteration in engagement range for those systems...

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The main difference is that the US has a lot more ATACMS that it can afford to deliver to Ukraine than the UK can deliver Storm Shadows.

 

26 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Europe contains multiple thousands of Strom Shadows with no other meaning for existence than fighting Russia. I believe the US has less than 1000 ATACMS and they have lots of "prior commitments" with the US being global military power and all.

 

19 minutes ago, womble said:

Wikipedia says there are 3700 ATACMS manufactured in total. A lot of those are "awaiting upgrade" though, and I can't offer a guess how useful the unupgraded ones would be to UKR at this point.

Quantity has a quality all its own said someone, somewhen. There are publicly available satellite pictures of Russian helicopters sitting in the on air fields in Northern Crimea. The issue is that repeated disasters have at least taught the Russians to disperse them. So Ukraine would only get one or two helicopters per missile. Whether or not that is a good deal depends on how many missiles you have, and how much damage the helicopters are causing. The choppers have proved to be a problem, so if there are enough missiles on hand...

 

I think a lot of the ATACMS awaiting upgrade are currently DPICM war heads. They would actually be far MORE useful to Ukraine, for things like killing helicopters. We would just have to get over ourselves. While we were at it we could send Ukraine a few tens of thousands of the older M26 rockets for the HIMARS. The grid square deletion experience might have noticeable effect on Russian morale. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Unusual video from K-2.  One of their FPV drones hit a trench and ignited their ammo causing them to catch on fire.  Aside from that, you can see the FPV making a last minute course correction to ensure it directly impacted the Russian soldiers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14m1i7a/k2_battalion_the_counter_offensive_continues_the/

Direct hit on the crew of a Russian Pion, which is always nice to see:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14m0ogq/the_defense_forces_continue_to_advance_in_the/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More evidence that we're seeing a larger turf war between FSB and MoD underway.  Prig was probably just the opening salvo.  There's more to come, I suspect:

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More evidence that we're seeing a larger turf war between FSB and MoD underway.  Prig was probably just the opening salvo.  There's more to come, I suspect:

Steve

If there are just one or two car bombs to start the party...

Edit: As in all the things Putin is trying to do, Stalin was better at it. He did the purge BEFORE the war. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If there are just one or two car bombs to start the party...

Edit: As in all the things Putin is trying to do, Stalin was better at it. He did the purge BEFORE the war. 

If only the partisans could carry out a hit making it look like the shooting turf war had started. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

The bases of those helicopters are flying from come immediately to mind. 

I made a little map of airbases Russia is known to be using for operations in Ukraine. This is not comprehensive but should give an idea of what a difference ATACMS could make.

Henichesʹkyy and Berdyansk are already in Storm Shadow range. Yeysk, Taganrog and Millerovo probably are as well, depending on how close to the front lines Ukraine is flying their SU-24s.

So the difference in capability comes into play in southern Crimea, including the Kerch bridge if Ukraine is allowed to target it.

 

 

[sburke]

52 minutes ago, IanL said:

There is no organization that calls itself the deep state, there is no leadership, there is no goal, it's a fake thing that people who are upset

Oh sure just like there is no Antifa leadership, I’ll betcha you are part of the deep state!

funny thing, I was once a member of a group that the FBI blamed for a lot of stuff. There were people in the group who were responsible but they were acting independently. The general members of the organization blamed hadn’t a clue. Even the state with all its intel networks never really understood that.  Just easier to label the whole. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

T-54/55 on a train in Crimea.  This is the equivalent of the US giving Ukrainians M-48 Patton tanks.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

Oh sure just like there is no Antifa leadership, I’ll betcha you are part of the deep state!

There isn't, because everybody knows they are both controlled by Soros.

Steve

[kevinkin]

38 minutes ago, IanL said:

FSB is an organization that actually exists.

And meets what we consider to be a deep state. Don't transfer the term used in that article over western politics. It was invoked in the context of Russia and Russia alone. People complain all the time about everything and like said 95+ % would look cross eyed if you asked them to define deep state. If any modern entity is a deep state, it's FSB.   

In the 1970s, former high-ranking officials of the Soviet Union, after defecting to the West, publicly stated that the Soviet political police – the KGB – had operated as a deep state secretly attempting to control the Communist Party and ultimately, the Soviet government.

In a 2006 symposium, Ion Mihai Pacepa, a former general in the Communist Romania secret police who defected to the United States in 1978, stated, "In the Soviet Union, the KGB was a state within a state.”

I don't think much has changed other than the name of the KGB. So, this is not about the west. It's about who really runs Russia and who safe guards the control and use of WMD.

https://www.thoughtco.com/deep-state-definition-4142030

[Battlefront.com]

Some more discussion about Prig being in St. Petersburg.  The photo evidence is suspect, but true or not the rumor is he's there to clean out bank accounts ahead of a July 1st deadline:

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/prigozhin-coup-uprising-russia-putin/674546/

Russia Has Reached a Dead End

An indifferent response to a warlord’s march on Moscow heralds the dawning realization that Russia has no good way out in Ukraine.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Video of a Russian crew firing from a T-54/55:

Steve

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

T-54/55 on a train in Crimea.  This is the equivalent of the US giving Ukrainians M-48 Patton tanks.

Steve

They didn't even bother to put ERA on the rolling coffins. That is if they roll of course, they might have to be towed to their crews final resting place.

[Kinophile]

43 minutes ago, sburke said:

Oh sure just like there is no Antifa leadership, I’ll betcha you are part of the deep state!

funny thing, I was once a member of a group that the FBI blamed for a lot of stuff. There were people in the group who were responsible but they were acting independently. The general members of the organization blamed hadn’t a clue. Even the state with all its intel networks never really understood that.  Just easier to label the whole. 

I knew it!  See,  I've NEVER trusted Boy Scouts. All those beedy-eyed little Helpers.... 

Edited June 29, 2023 by Kinophile

[JonS]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There isn't, because everybody knows they are both controlled by Soros

I thought Antifa(tm) was run out of the basement of that pizza place?

Deep State(r), on the other hand, is headquartered at that landscaping place.

[cesmonkey]

 

[strac_sap]

12 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That would only work if the minefields are mostly anti-tank, right? But Russians do not give a toss about modern Western sensibilities and the resulting Ottawa Treaty, and plant anti-personnel mines in huge numbers

 

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

AP landmines are really more of a nuisance than a denial weapon in conflicts like this.  If we were talking a very long term conflict zone where each side has had years to lay down AP belts, maybe; however, AP mines need a lot of density to stop dismounted infantry - and even then you are not going to fully stop them.  The numbers of AP mines would be insane to cover these frontages and the RA simply has not had the time to plant them.

So dismounted infantry penetration is still likely a viable option and I am betting the UA is doing it.  Problem is getting the vehicles across to sustain and support them.

Yes indeed, infantry can cross AT minefields as as long as no tilt-rod fuses are used. But, and its a big but, do not run. An already heavy fully loaded soldier can already be in the mid-250 lbs (110+ kg) range, and then running with the added impulse can shoot the force much higher. We discussed this often and generally took it seriously.

AP mines and anti-handling devices were indeed a nuisance. They really slow down work, and that sucks if you're under fire. @Haiduk posted about these mines which I added below, and I wonder if there is some insider info on the prevalence of these. Most of the videos and images I've seen are of massive minefields of the Soviet TM-62 AT mine with a force of 300+ lbs (150+ kg) required; but how much of the other stuff is in there? I agree that massive numbers are needed for denial, but their morale effect can be pretty severe.

The Ukrainians are moving small units up, and even vehicles in some areas. One video I noticed they used two MICLICs and then the BMPs drove nowhere near the cleared area. So definitely movement is available, and @The_Capt had some solid insight overall on this.

23 hours ago, Haiduk said:

As pressure-type AP mines Russians widely uses PFM "petal" mines, which set remotely and can have time of life before self-destruction in 1-40 hours (PFM-1S) or w/o self-destruction (PFM-1). This mine has 40 g of HE with pressure reaction in 5-25 kg. Explosion of this mine usually caused hevay inguries of the feet, often with tearimg off whole feet or it part. 

But that what we could see on video it were likely PMN types (PMN-1/2/3/4). Unlike PFMs, which lays on surface, PMN can be set manually under surface. It has plastic case, so usual metal detector is useless. 

PMN-1 has 200 g of HE and 8-25 kg of reaction, PMN-2 - 100 g and 15-25 kg (increasing resilience against explosive demining), PMN -3 is later modification of PMN-2 with self-destruction up to 8 days and electronic detonator, which makes this mine much more stable to explosive demaining. Newest PMN-4 has 50 g of HE.

PMN-2 mine

PMN4 mine

PMN mines, especially PMN-1 causes tearing off the leg or both legs up to knees, what we could see on video.

PMN mines also have a name "black widow" and black humor PMN abbriveation decoding "Bring My Legs"

 

[strac_sap]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video of a Russian crew firing from a T-54/55:

Steve

Did he just use a crowbar to make sure the breach had closed? ...And make it seem normal?

Edited June 29, 2023 by strac_sap

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

So the difference in capability comes into play in southern Crimea, including the Kerch bridge if Ukraine is allowed to target it.

I'm pretty sure Ukraine got the green light to attack the Kerch bridge any time they want to.  Specifically I recall a reporter asking some US official about it and the official repeated the half answer that has been standard.  That being "NATO weaponry can be used within Ukraine's sovereign territory".  My memory might be faulty on the specifics, but I think whatever I heard last year was satisfactory.

Generally speaking, the bridge is considered illegally constructed as the Ukrainian government had no say in its construction.  Logically, that means Ukraine can issue a "demolition permit" to rectify the situation.

Steve

[strac_sap]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Edit: As in all the things Putin is trying to do, Stalin was better at it. He did the purge BEFORE the war. 

I've been wondering about this. Given the war why haven't all the heads been rolling? My assumption is that these are the loyalists around him, period. But I feel like this is the group that would understand this better.

As an aside, I noticed this in the US during Iraq in the early 2000's. Generals were not getting fired even when outcomes were bad. I recall an article that read something like: "Privates in the army are punished more for losing a rifle than Generals for losing a war." EDIT: Here is the article.

Edited June 29, 2023 by strac_sap
link added

[TheVulture]

I''m sure this will put all put all our minds at ease:

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

More evidence that we're seeing a larger turf war between FSB and MoD underway.  Prig was probably just the opening salvo.  There's more to come, I suspect:

Steve

Every dead one is a good one. They could wipe each other out, I would not care.