How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

According to Russian telegrammer Two Majors, another attempt by the Russian forces to dislodge the Ukrainians from the Antonivskyi Bridge appears to have failed miserably:
https://t.me/dva_majors/19822

Quote

Antonovsky bridge, our bank of the Dnieper. Kherson region

Another attempt to clean up the area with our infantry and equipment failed. There are dead and wounded on our side. Loss of technology.

️the enemy remotely mined the area!

For some reason, our fathers-commanders completely fulfill the enemy's plan to pull our forces into the open area under enemy fire, although the enemy's forces do not pose a threat in terms of its further advancement.

At present, the enemy continues to hold a small foothold on our coast.

Actions on the ground by motorized rifle units of the Russian Armed Forces cause dense enemy artillery fire from its shore . The enemy forces themselves are in shelters under the bridge.

️The troops are asking for an accurate strike by aviation and missile weapons on the foundations of the Antonovsky bridge from both sides.

 

 

[sburke]

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008893083/ukraine-frontline-hospital.html?smid=em-share

 

Treating the wounded

The Wagner paramilitary group’s brief mutiny in Russia and the fallout from it has eclipsed attention on the war in Ukraine over the past few days. The war slogs on in the meantime: Russian soldiers kill or wound as many as thousands of Ukrainian troops a week, adding to the invasion’s toll.

My colleagues Yousur Al-Hlou, Masha Froliak and Ben Laffin published a striking video today from the front lines, following Ukrainian combat medics. Before the war, they were civilian doctors and nurses. Now, they treat their wounded countrymen while trying to protect themselves from artillery fire and rocket attacks. I urge you to watch the video, which changed how I look at the sacrifice Ukrainians have been forced to make.

I spoke to Yousur and Masha about their experience following these medics for a week.

German: What is the mood among Ukrainian medics, more than a year into the war?

Masha: They compared the grinding workload to the film “Groundhog Day,” reliving the same day over and over and losing sense of whether it’s day or night. They have been living in that hospital, as well as working there. They’re tired. They don’t have a sense of when this is going to end.

What they say in the video has an existential sense to it. They seem motivated to keep going because they feel their country needs them.

Yousur: They’re not just defending their country. They’re defending their families’ lives and their own lives. It’s a very personal struggle. It’s a very personal motivation — a very personal risk.

One of the doctors asks: “How could I not take this on? How could I not be at this frontline hospital? How can I not risk my life if it’s in service of protecting my family and protecting my country?” They acknowledge they have fatigue. They acknowledge that they have doubts about when this conflict might end. But they also have this relentless motivation.

Masha: One doctor said these young soldiers were the same age as her child. She spoke about imagining it’s her child in the operating room — and she just wants to hug and protect them all.

It seems like an important point: As tired as they may be, these doctors are not giving up on the war.

Yousur: That’s right. These doctors were not shy about voicing the toll the war is having on them. But it doesn’t negate their motivation and their hatred toward the enemy — feelings they also expressed openly. These feelings live in parallel.

What were their lives like before the invasion?

Yousur: They were anesthesiologists, surgeons, nurses and so on at civilian hospitals. They were wearing white coats. When the invasion began last year, their lives changed drastically.

It is a nearly universal aspect of the war. Once it began, a lot of civilians suddenly found themselves in service of their country. People volunteered to stitch camouflage nets for soldiers. Grandmothers made Molotov cocktails. Similarly, these doctors began working practically overnight in a frontline military hospital having to tend to the wounded amid rocket fire.

Edited June 30, 2023 by sburke

[sburke]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/mike-pence-volodymr-zelenskyy-surprise-trip-ukraine-rcna91763

"I believe America’s the leader of the free world," Pence told NBC News. "But coming here just as a private citizen — being able to really see firsthand the heroism of the Ukrainian soldiers holding the line in those woods, see the heroism of the people here in Irpin that held back the Russian army, to see families whose homes were literally shelled in the midst of an unconscionable and unprovoked Russian invasion — just steels my resolve to do my part, to continue to call for strong American support for our Ukrainian friends and allies."

Edited June 30, 2023 by sburke

[DesertFox]

LOL! "Z" Letter formed by StormShadow.

 

 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

According to Russian telegrammer Two Majors, another attempt by the Russian forces to dislodge the Ukrainians from the Antonivskyi Bridge appears to have failed miserably:
https://t.me/dva_majors/19822

 

Muscovites seem to be genuinely worried about this bridgehead and are striking it with everything they have, including Iskanders.

Edit:
Also this:

As horrible as it sounds, the biggest contribution made by these few armor companies that UA lost in the first days of counteroffensive, was showing everyone that they in fact are not equipped to do  offensive actions in a way acceptable for UA command AND NATO partners. Here's hope that that half-assing our support is really ending and they will get all they need, including the most destructive weapons in our disposal. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Huba

[Seedorf81]

"Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised).

I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period.

But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane???

Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existential war???

How ignorant and naive can you be?

Edited June 30, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Tux]

13 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised).

I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period.

But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane???

Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existantial war???

How ignorant and naive can you be?

They have a job to do I suppose, and in the long-term they have a point. 

I think I understand both their request and the likely ‘response’ from Ukraine.  Both equally valid in their own ways and contexts. 

[Butschi]

18 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised).

I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period.

But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane???

Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existantial war???

How ignorant and naive can you be?

Not extremely sensitive but on the other hand Ukraine did sign the Ottawa Treaty and I think noone forced them to. Those treaties are worth nothing if they are signed in peace time and go out the window during war. So: At what other point in time would it make more sense to ask?

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Butschi

[kraze]

47 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised).

I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period.

But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane???

Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existantial war???

How ignorant and naive can you be?

because "human rights" organizations don't give an F about human rights. They are getting millions of USD of funding for pretending they care and it's obvious they don't want to upset one of the primary cash providers. Which isn't Ukraine in this war.

Can't buy another cool SUV if nobody is paying for it, am I right?

HRW, Red Cross, Amnesty, OSCE, whatever other trash. It's all the same. Old people who simply post words on the internet.

Edited June 30, 2023 by kraze

[kevinkin]

10 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Gave me some insight of tactics used.

Sort of like the L shaped ambush formation we are familiar with, but on the move. However is appears the long leg is on the enemy side of the brush row and not the friendly side. Maybe that's to bag Russian running away. 

[kraze]

39 minutes ago, Tux said:

They have a job to do I suppose, and in the long-term they have a point. 

I think I understand both their request and the likely ‘response’ from Ukraine.  Both equally valid in their own ways and contexts. 

Except they aren't requesting the same from Russia.

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sort of like the L shaped ambush formation we are familiar with, but on the move. However is appears the long leg is on the enemy side of the brush row and not the friendly side. Maybe that's to bag Russian running away. 

It will have tactics somehow similar as bocage in Normandy with specialized equipment. I can see a new lease of life of otherwise obsolete armor. Equipped with dozer blades and more effective drones. 

[Tux]

40 minutes ago, Tux said:

They have a job to do I suppose, and in the long-term they have a point. 

I think I understand both their request and the likely ‘response’ from Ukraine.  Both equally valid in their own ways and contexts. 

Actually I might even go further than my last post: I think HRW’s plea is an example of the kind of thing which must be heard during the war.  Hearing and considering these things is how Ukraine will guard the humanity which it is ultimately, ostensibly fighting for.  It is naturally up to Ukraine how they respond and what they prioritise but there is zero benefit whatsoever to not hearing such things and every benefit (particularly post-war) to not losing sight of them.

 

Listen to Human Rights Watch.  Take a breath, remember who you are and consider what they say.  What you then decide is up to you.

 

In my humble opinion.

[Tux]

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

because "human rights" organizations don't give an F about human rights. They are getting millions of USD of funding for pretending they care and it's obvious they don't want to upset one of the primary cash providers. Which isn't Ukraine in this war.

Can't buy another cool SUV if nobody is paying for it, am I right?

HRW, Red Cross, Amnesty, OSCE, whatever other trash. It's all the same. Old people who simply post words on the internet.

You may be right but I guess our main concern is whether the words they post are right or wrong?

[chuckdyke]

How effective is an RPG against a tank dozing a few tons of soil?

[Tux]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Except they aren't requesting the same from Russia.

I think that’s irrelevant.  They may not ask the same of Russia because Russia aren’t signatories to the Ottawa Treaty, or because they don’t think Russia will listen (basically a compliment to Ukraine), or because they’re corrupt and incompetent, etc. and so on.  None of those reasons affect the validity of the request.

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

It will have tactics somehow similar as bocage in Normandy with specialized equipment. I can see a new lease of life of otherwise obsolete armor. Equipped with dozer blades and more effective drones. 

Looking into that since the UA unit did not attack head on but was able to get into position to roll up the the enemy line horizontally. The Germans would often place MG nests a the intersection of hedgerows to prevent that and crossfire the open fields. 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

The Germans would often place MG nests a the intersection of hedgerows to prevent that and crossfire the open fields. 

Modified Shermans were introduced. No doubt engineers will analyzing all this. I saw a T72 I think running over the trenches, I thought it would be more efficient with a dozer blade. 

[kevinkin]

The Rhino tank. The brush rows are not as heavy as hedgerows but probably can hang up a AFV is a few places. 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by kevinkin

[Bulletpoint]

While it's still too early to declare the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure, it's definitely not progressing much so far.

At what point in time will we be able to properly evaluate the Ukrainian counteroffensive? Start of Autumn?

[chuckdyke]

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The Rhino tank. The brush rows are not as heavy as hedgerows but probably can hang up a AFV is a few places. 

 

A modified dozer blade will do the job I think. Actually bad to bury people alive but the unmodified T72 could do the job by itself better with a dozer blade. Fills the trench and the soil will spoil over in the dugout. 

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

They have a job to do I suppose, and in the long-term they have a point. 

I think I understand both their request and the likely ‘response’ from Ukraine.  Both equally valid in their own ways and contexts. 

I really do understand the necessity and value of Humans Rights Watch. Seriously. But it is the timing.

If a house is on fire with people still in it, are you gonna walk up to the firefighters and tell them that because of global warming (which for me is the most dangerous thing in the world at this moment), they should reduce the amount of water they're using?

I most certainly would not.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Seedorf81

[chuckdyke]

10 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Humans Rights Watch.

I would invite them to go with the Ukrainian army to clear the trenches and they can switch on their bodycam. Somehow, I can see them not accepting the invitation. 

[Beleg85]

Interview with gen. Zaluzhny. Lot of bitterness on his side, understandeable in this situation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/

Also, interesting detail that he and Milley cooperate so closely- I think it is first time he admitts that; up to now, Ukrainian High Command rather officially distanced itself from direct US connections.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[Butschi]

20 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I really do understand the necessity and value of Humans Rights Watch. Seriously. But it is the timing.

If a house is on fire with people still in it, are you gonna walk up to the firefighters and tell them that because of global warming (which for me is the most dangerous thing in the world at this moment), they should reduce the amout of water they're using?

I most certainly would not.

 

 

 

 

That's not a very fitting comparison, though. To make it semi-valid you would have to tell it like so: The house is burning with people still inside. There are no firefighters, the people inside fight the fire themselves. They are using extinguishers which contain a substance that is cheap and somewhat effective but harms people even years after (not only those in the house right now but also the people who are going to buy the house in 20 years). Years ago, they had protested against the use of such extinguishers and vowed never to use them even if their house was burning. Now the neighbors come over and point out that they had vowed not to use them and that there are other extinguishers that don't cause such problems.

Still not a perfect comparison but way more fitting.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Butschi