How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

This, exactly this. Why was Ukraine left hanging for the six months previous to 2/24, when there was rock solid evidence of what was coming. It was because there was this enormous fear of Russian power, that anything we do will make it worse.Why were there not HIMARS in country in a month? Why was Western armor that is now grinding through mine field in the south not available to drive home the offensive in Kharkiv last fall? Why is the southern offensive not supported by fifty plus F-16s? The answer to all of those questions is that we gave Russia to much deference, to much credit, and to much fear.

I am not sure this was a failure in assessing Russian Great power as much as it was a failure in assessing Ukraine's power to resist and deny Russia strategic victory.  We were not about to throw a bunch of expensive (and proprietary) very expensive hardware into a country whose chances to continue existing were low.  Why these assessments were wrong we as much about mis-reading "Russia Sux" as they were about "War is fundamentally changing".  All of the metrics we used to measure military strength and it ability to create decision were the problem, not necessarily metrics of national power.

[FancyCat]

 

[kluge]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Quote

In quotes that are being widely republished in Russian state media, Surovikin’s second in command, Colonel General Andrei Yudin, denied he and his boss were in detention and told the Ura newspaper: “I’m on vacation. At home.”

But Surovikin himself has yet to surface.

https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-post-mutiny-purge-begins-with-wagner-arrests-and-disappearing-general-armageddon/

Ah, it's just a "vacation"

[Battlefront.com]

Lots of good stuff in yesterday's ISW reporting on the coup.  Refining my theory as information comes out...

Not terribly surprising, but it seems there is more evidence to suggest that the FSB allowed the mutiny attempt to happen in order to strengthen its hand against the MoD and to affect some positive change on the military situation WITHOUT toppling Putin.  Their moves are, therefore, pragmatic from a selfish standpoint.  That fits my understanding of the FSB

The FSB must have know about the plans for the mutiny in detail well ahead of time.  They apparently saved Shoigu and/or Gerasimov's asses by getting them out of Rostov ahead of Prig's move to capture the city, which put them in the FSB's debut (so to speak).  They also appear to have acted quickly against Surovikin, possibly arresting him after Prig kicked things off.  There are rumors to that effect and then there's his video saying this was the wrong course of action.

The MoD has now shown itself to be riddled with disloyalty, something Putin isn't a big fan of.  There might be a purge going on, which would be to FSB's long term interests because many of the guys on the purge list are likely younger and more competent than the established leadership.  Purging these guys will do what all purges do... make the armed forces weaker.

It appears now that someone, perhaps the FSB, is trying to reconfigure the military structure in Ukraine, but Putin has say in the matter.  From the looks of it Shoigu will stay at Putin's side, likely a concession to Putin.  However, Gerasimov has apparently been removed from from managing the war.  That was a key component of Prig's mutiny, and objectively he was not wrong to push for that.  This wasn't a mafia style vendetta of Prig, rather it was a rational demand that objectively is in Russia's best interests.  That means someone who completely despises Prig could still want Gerasimov gone because it's the right thing to do.

The apparent change at the front is Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, the head of VDV, is now operational commander for the southern front.  According to ISW's summary of him, this is a guy that appears to be a major upgrade to Gerasimov and yet has not been tainted by the coup plot.  If the FSB is really the ones pulling the strings, no matter what Teplinsky did the FSB will protect him.

Prig's whereabouts is still questionable, as is what is exactly going on with Wagner's personnel.  This is probably still part of the reason negotiations are not completely over.

Steve

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, Yet said:

and that field is defence line #2 out of the 6 defensieve lines on the map in this part of the front. 

The mines and entrenchments matter very little unless there are troops to man them that are willing to fight. Even if they have bodies to put in those trenches, they count for far far less if their enablers have been burned away. So it really comes down to how fast Russia is losing the important stuff. How bad are its loses in artillery? How many counter battery radars, and wide area jamming systems does it have left? Even competent ATGM teams do not just appear over night like mushrooms. It all comes down to differential attrition in the systems that matter.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ya I got that part, it was weak reframing which does not really help beyond those who already agree with the position...hell I agree with the position and thought it off key.  There is no way we can park policy on "the is no such thing as Great Powers" - it is right up there with that Chatham House piece from yesterday.

Of course there are Great Powers, they would be the ones who deter, coerce and compel us be it above or below the waterline.  The questions are - how do we expand/sustain our option spaces while compressing theirs?  Quickly followed by "setting conditions to negotiate from positions of strength".  Russia, China and/or Mole People, that is the central issue.  What seems to break a lot of these policy types is the fact that we may need to renegotiate the RBIO in the process as the status quo appears to have fun off and joined the circus.

Back to Russia the issue to my mind is how do we defeat a Great Power without making things worse?  Carefully, it would appear.

Edit - to follow up, now the concept of Medium Power (one my nation seems to think is a thing) might be the idea worth tossing out.  I am beginning to think a state is either Great or Small, Medium really doesn't seem to mean anything beyond a collectivism dream that is starting to fray on the edges.

Ukraine itself might be the best definition of a medium power, I would also give a nod to Vietnam.

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure this was a failure in assessing Russian Great power as much as it was a failure in assessing Ukraine's power to resist and deny Russia strategic victory.  We were not about to throw a bunch of expensive (and proprietary) very expensive hardware into a country whose chances to continue existing were low.  Why these assessments were wrong we as much about mis-reading "Russia Sux" as they were about "War is fundamentally changing".  All of the metrics we used to measure military strength and it ability to create decision were the problem, not necessarily metrics of national power.

That works up until HIMARS was introduced successfully. After that it is all about not upsetting the Russians too much, now you can argue that is valid, but telling Ukraine that they have beat the Russians slowly, and slow walking them on EU, and NATO membership at the same time is just wrong. Biden's line about "we aren't going to make it easy for Ukraine to get in NATO" was the single dumbest thing he has said since this war started. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by dan/california

[keas66]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure this was a failure in assessing Russian Great power as much as it was a failure in assessing Ukraine's power to resist and deny Russia strategic victory.  We were not about to throw a bunch of expensive (and proprietary) very expensive hardware into a country whose chances to continue existing were low.  Why these assessments were wrong we as much about mis-reading "Russia Sux" as they were about "War is fundamentally changing".  All of the metrics we used to measure military strength and it ability to create decision were the problem, not necessarily metrics of national power.

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/lend-lease   The past would seem to  offer up different approaches  to this . President Roosevelt did not know whether Britain was going to last - but he certainly decided to support them as much as he could  ahead of  the US actually entering the War . The Calculus used by the West with regards  Ukraine would seem to be much weaker than this kind of response before February 2022 .

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, keas66 said:

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/lend-lease   The past would seem to  offer up different approaches  to this . President Roosevelt did not know whether Britain was going to last - but he certainly decided to support them as much as he could  ahead of  the US actually entering the War . The Calculus used by the West with regards  Ukraine would seem to be much weaker than this kind of response before February 2022 .

Good lord, the whole navigation Roosevelt had to do prior to Pearl Harbor is a case study in political tightrope walking.  We all remember the happy ending but he was threading needles like a mad tailor in the lead up.  I suspect Ukraine is the same thing in many ways.

[DesertFox]

Best way to de-mine that ****.

 

 

[Butschi]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ukraine itself might be the best definition of a medium power, I would also give a nod to Vietnam.

How do you define a medium power? Vietnam didn't get steam rolled in a proxy war against a super/great power and the same appears to be true for Ukraine (though let's not forget that the war isn't over just yet). Apart from that - and no offense meant to the Ukrainians (or Vietnamese?) here - both play a pretty minor role, all things considered.

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

The FSB is a dystopian version of what some Americans refer to as the “deep state.”

Yeah but the FSB is a real group with leadership, intention and structure that really hurts people to preserve power for the dictator. Perhaps in this case now for itself. While the "deep state" is just a made up boogie man that is nothing more than the general bureaucracy that moves slow and resists change.

[kimbosbread]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

AP landmines are really more of a nuisance than a denial weapon in conflicts like this.

…

So dismounted infantry penetration is still likely a viable option and I am betting the UA is doing it.  Problem is getting the vehicles across to sustain and support them.

How much armor is sufficient to shield a soldier from AP mines? How light of vehicle won’t set off an AP mine? 

Reason I ask is I think one near future technology that will be arriving in the next decade or two is some form of powered armor. Battery density is improving, 1kg per 1kwh or so, which starts getting us to olympic level sprinter power. Soldiers already carry a ton of weight, so 5-10kg of batteries would support more armor, heavier weapons, etc while saving the human joints from being ground to powder. And why not make the suit remote controlled if needed? The actuators are the big holdup, of course, but I would be shocked if some sort of artificial muscle that is workable (ie doesn’t heat up much, responds fast, only uses electricity) isn’t invented in the next decade.
 

Obviously this won’t work against a smart mine that can identify targets and then shoot an rpg warhead at them.

Edited June 29, 2023 by kimbosbread

[DesertFox]

About time, innit?

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, IanL said:

Yeah but the FSB is a real group with leadership, intention and structure that really hurts people to preserve power for the dictator. Perhaps in this case now for itself. While the "deep state" is just a made up boogie man that is nothing more than the general bureaucracy that moves slow and resists change.

I see this at the local level and could rant at length about it.  The "deep state" mindset is inherently paranoid and disinterested, or even incapable, of understanding how the world really works.  The reason their idiotic, unconstitutional, and frankly fascist mentality is rejected by our local government isn't because there's a "deep state" thwarting them.  Nope, it's real people trying to do their jobs as best they can under the crushing constraints of rule of law, free market economics, and constant change.  Oddly enough, the "deep state" towns are the ones where they're ilk managed to get put in charge.  No surprise to anybody who understands the mentality of the people who subscribe to "deep state" identity politics.

A country such as Russia, on the other hand, is very much a different matter.  The agencies within a democracy are there to enforce the law, the agencies within Russia are there to enforce the regime.  Democracies may have bad laws and bad enforcement sometimes, but they are inherently designed to conform to the rule of law.  Russia is designed explicitly so that rule of law is optional and generally only followed when it is in the interests of maintaining the regime.  Anybody who thinks the US or any other democracy, including ones teetering towards fascism, are even remotely similar to autocracies really don't know what they are talking about.

Steve

 

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, IanL said:

Yeah but the FSB is a real group with leadership, intention and structure that really hurts people to preserve power for the dictator. Perhaps in this case now for itself. While the "deep state" is just a made up boogie man that is nothing more than the general bureaucracy that moves slow and resists change.

Let's not get tied up in semantics. The point is not how to define the FSM or a, but how much they are in control vs the office/position of the President.  Bureaucracy = deep state except the later sounds more nefarious to some. Try to fight city hall and find out how deep their pockets are compare the single citizen. 

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

About time, innit?

 

 

Yes it is

WHEN the US finally approves the deployment of ATACMS to Ukraine, it will happen fast.  VERY fast.  We could possibly see strikes within days.  Especially if the announcement is timed like Storm Shadow was. 

Paraphrasing the Brits, "we've made Storm Shadow available to our Ukrainian friends.  Did we mention we've been working on all the difficult bits for the last few months?  No?  Well, now you know.  Oh, and they already have them in their hands".

How many days later was it that something went boom deep within occupied Ukraine?  A couple of days IIRC.  I think we might see that happen again.

Steve

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

How much armor is sufficient to shield a soldier from AP mines? How light of vehicle won’t set off an AP mine? 

Reason I ask is I think one near future technology that will be arriving in the next decade or two is some form of powered armor. Battery density is improving, 1kg per 1kwh or so, which starts getting us to olympic level sprinter power. Soldiers already carry a ton of weight, so 5-10kg of batteries would support more armor, heavier weapons, etc while saving the human joints from being ground to powder. And why not make the suit remote controlled if needed? The actuators are the big holdup, of course, but I would be shocked if some sort of artificial muscle that is workable (ie doesn’t heat up much, responds fast, only uses electricity) isn’t invented in the next decade.
 

Obviously this won’t work against a smart mine that can identify targets and then shoot an rpg warhead at them.

1. Depends on the mine.  A bounding frag mine is basically like having a mortar go off next to you but we have pretty good frag protection.  A basic HE mine does damage through blast, which will go through protective frag armour - we saw this in Afghanistan where troops body armor was not penetrated but the bast shattered them all to hell inside.  No EFPs are really AP yet but if people start running around in power armor it is going to happen.

2.  Not much at all.  Some AP mines have only a few pounds pressure to set off.  Trip wires need even less.  AT mines need a lot more weight, normally, gets into 100 pound range if I recall.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Let's not get tied up in semantics. The point is not how to define the FSM or a, but how much they are in control vs the office/position of the President.  Bureaucracy = deep state except the later sounds more nefarious to some. Try to fight city hall and find out how deep their pockets are compare the single citizen. 

The difference is that the people who ascribe to "deep state" think that there's a secret cabal running the show and the chief executive and elected officials are just window dressing.  So it isn't just about fighting the bureaucrats who are hidebound and unmotivated to change, it's that they are doing it deliberately according to some organized agenda to deprive people of their rights and opportunities to prosper.   They also make no allowances for rule of law or that radical and untested change is rarely a good thing in the end.

Steve

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

WHEN the US finally approves the deployment of ATACMS to Ukraine, it will happen fast.  VERY fast.  We could possibly see strikes within days.  Especially if the announcement is timed like Storm Shadow was. 

Agree. Can't wait. 

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes it is

WHEN the US finally approves the deployment of ATACMS to Ukraine, it will happen fast.  VERY fast.  We could possibly see strikes within days.  Especially if the announcement is timed like Storm Shadow was. 

Paraphrasing the Brits, "we've made Storm Shadow available to our Ukrainian friends.  Did we mention we've been working on all the difficult bits for the last few months?  No?  Well, now you know.  Oh, and they already have them in their hands".

How many days later was it that something went boom deep within occupied Ukraine?  A couple of days IIRC.  I think we might see that happen again.

Steve

Yep. Hopefully the time they announce that ATACMS will be delivered they are already there and in the process of being delivered to their targets. I hope they get this finalized by next week.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The difference is that the people who ascribe to "deep state" think that there's a secret cabal running the show and the chief executive and elected officials are just window dressing.  So it isn't just about fighting the bureaucrats who are hidebound and unmotivated to change, it's that they are doing it deliberately according to some organized agenda to deprive people of their rights and opportunities to prosper.   They also make no allowances for rule of law or that radical and untested change is rarely a good thing in the end.

Sounds like the FSB. I think the writers of The Hill article were using the term the way you outline and not trying to invoke western political speak other than some in a small circle might understand what the term means. 95+ of people could not tell you what it refers to. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

1. Depends on the mine.  A bounding frag mine is basically like having a mortar go off next to you but we have pretty good frag protection.  A basic HE mine does damage through blast, which will go through protective frag armour - we saw this in Afghanistan where troops body armor was not penetrated but the bast shattered them all to hell inside.  No EFPs are really AP yet but if people start running around in power armor it is going to happen.

2.  Not much at all.  Some AP mines have only a few pounds pressure to set off.  Trip wires need even less.  AT mines need a lot more weight, normally, gets into 100 pound range if I recall.

There was an interesting case in Kharkiv in the fall where the Ukrainians sent very light vehicles thru an area without problems, and some follow on units in tracked vehicles triggered the mines the light units had driven over. 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sounds like the FSB. I think the writers of The Hill article were using the term the way you outline and not trying to invoke western political speak other than some in a small circle might understand what the term means. 95+ of people could not tell you what it refers to. 

There are a lot of terms like that.

[kimbosbread]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There was an interesting case in Kharkiv in the fall where the Ukrainians sent very light vehicles thru an area without problems, and some follow on units in tracked vehicles triggered the mines the light units had driven over. 

This presumably would be an advantage of an 8x8 vehicle over an equivalent weight/tired 4x4, but won’t matter against a smarter mine.

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sounds like the FSB. I think the writers of The Hill article were using the term the way you outline and not trying to invoke western political speak other than some in a small circle might understand what the term means. 95+ of people could not tell you what it refers to. 

Ask someone who screams about BIden and the Democrats being "socialist" or "communist" to define what a socialist or communist is and I think you'd find their answers even less coherent than asking them what they mean by "deep state".  There's some pretty hilarious videos of such people being asked to define what they are screaming and it doesn't end well for them   The extremes are more about emotion and not about coherent use of language.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:

This presumably would be an advantage of an 8x8 vehicle over an equivalent weight/tired 4x4, but won’t matter against a smarter mine.

Yes, but those smarter mines have to be built and laid. Something that dealt with the massive cold war stocks of dumb mines would be VERY useful. But things worked in Kharkiv because there was no one present, sober, and awake to fire heavy machine guns and mortars at those light vehicles. The Russian army in the south has not yet reached that point.