How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

[womble]

1 minute ago, Vic4 said:

How is it that the Chechens have managed to avoid any significant deployment/action throughout the war?

Why wouldn’t Putin/MOD be using them as fodder similar to Wagner as opposed to say VDV/Spetsnaz who have taken tremendous losses and are “ethnic”/core Russians and presumably much more loyal than the Chechens?

I assume Putin/Russia needs Chechnya to absolutely remain in the Russian fold during the conflict, but it seems Putin does not have any leverage to force them to commit significantly. Also concurrently, it would seem logical that the more Russia loses its core forces, Kadyrov’s options and strength only grow exponentially.

Ironically the TikTok bearded clowns seem to be coming out on top of all combatants. What am I missing?

I think you've hit a nail on the head, there, in the bold bit and answered your own question. Being seen to be "actively involved" is important to Kadyrov, probably both personally, and in the maintenance of the image of the  mighty warrior that helps him stay in charge in Chechnya. So he's happy to play (emphasis on play) along so long as he doesn't have to sacrifice any of the other thing that keeps him in power: the brute force of his men.

[Probus]

Any chance that Belarus worked out a truce so that the Wagner group could retreat into Belarus and save face?  Anyone else see that as a giant ruse to redirect the Wagner group so they can attack from the north and make it a 2 front war again?

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

How is it that the Chechens have managed to avoid any significant deployment/action throughout the war?

Why wouldn’t Putin/MOD be using them as fodder similar to Wagner as opposed to say VDV/Spetsnaz who have taken tremendous losses and are “ethnic”/core Russians and presumably much more loyal than the Chechens?

I assume Putin/Russia needs Chechnya to absolutely remain in the Russian fold during the conflict, but it seems Putin does not have any leverage to force them to commit significantly. Also concurrently, it would seem logical that the more Russia loses its core forces, Kadyrov’s options and strength only grow exponentially.

Ironically the TikTok bearded clowns seem to be coming out on top of all combatants. What am I missing?

Easy. Chechens are basically the only putin's personal terrorist army left. They are to terrorize civilians, they are the only ones willing to do it in Russia* and they have no military training to fight somebody armed with a gun.

Every russian is afraid of Chechens because they managed to defeat russian army twice over the course of just 5 years - so they kinda have that default "+2 to intimidation" skill by just being Chechen.

Irony is that I have no idea how anyone even thought they will be ever to battle Wagner, the armed guys.

 *like actually terrorize, e.g. by stuffing a bottle up their asshole - actually happened, none of that pussy OMOH that can only beat some chicks and arrest a few old ladies, but instantly disperses come some resistance.

Edited June 25, 2023 by kraze

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, Probus said:

Any chance that Belarus worked out a truce so that the Wagner group could retreat into Belarus and save face?  Anyone else see that as a giant ruse to redirect the Wagner group so they can attack from the north and make it a 2 front war again?

terrain up north is terrible.  A second front there is an even worse waste of RAs limited resources.

[womble]

6 minutes ago, Probus said:

Any chance that Belarus worked out a truce so that the Wagner group could retreat into Belarus and save face?  Anyone else see that as a giant ruse to redirect the Wagner group so they can attack from the north and make it a 2 front war again?

I agree with others that Luka would rather not have Wagner breathing down his neck. I think Wagner have been foisted on him rather than him wanting to give them safe haven; it's not realistic to expect Prig to change allegiances, even now. Maybe they'll be acting as security for the nuclear weapons that have been deployed to Belarusian territory. Wouldn't that be a great thought?

They've had the option of moving forces into Belarus ever since they ran away last summer. If it's a "ruse" it's a thin one. UKR will know whether all the enabling assets (AD, artillery, logs etc) have been moved into place by the MoD, and Prig's Wagner doesn't have those assets in sufficient numbers to make a southward drive to Kyiv, without MoD help. If they were going to do it, they could just do it (to the extent to which they have the assets to do it), without any of this theatre.

[kevinkin]

21 minutes ago, womble said:

Also relevant is the fate of Utkin, who is, AIUI, the real founder and head of Wagner

I read that. Chief of operations vs the ceremonial general. I was thinking about a northern front too. I would be surprised if they would attack out of Belarus into that awful terrain. I think Wagner might actually outnumber the Belarus armed forces and don't think Lukashenko would like them on their soil. 

[akd]

Previously seen Terra Unit footage, but now with more context.  Good insight on cost / benefit of "drone bomber" ops (they consider it only a secondary role when artillery ammo is short because it burns through drones very fast):

 

[Vic4]

31 minutes ago, kraze said:

Chechens are basically the only putin's personal terrorist army left. They are to terrorize civilians, they are the only ones willing to do it in Russia* and they have no military training to fight somebody armed with a gun.

Every russian is afraid of Chechens because they managed to defeat russian army twice over the course of just 5 years.

I can see the personal terrorist army part making sense; but the more Russia loses, the less of a leash Putin will have on his dogs when he really needs them... Although tbf, the bolded statements above seem somewhat contradictory. (i.e. they could have had a greater impact than the poorly trained and equipped mobiks.) Anyways, just a sideshow it would seem.   

Edited June 25, 2023 by Vic4

[Heirloom_Tomato]

Have Shoigu or Geramasov been seen in public since things kicked off? If not, here is a Longshot theory; the two of them and other high ranking officers were on the plane that got shot down. Prigs goal was to change the command of the MOD and with them dead in the plane crash his goal was achieved. The deal he struck was the best one for everyone left alive to save as much face as possible. In the coming days it will be publicly revealed they were keeping secrets from Putin who now knows just how bad things were going at the front. While it looked like Prig was a traitor, he is really a hero for showing Putin the truth. Or some other BS statements to pacify the Russain public.

[Battlefront.com]

 

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

So Putin would have stopped the thunder run in its tracks if he had a sniff of it from FSB? Did he have the resources to do so without a lot bloodshed?

Oh absolutely.  Remember, Putin is in charge of a terror based organization.  He has lots of options.

The most likely would be a civilian dressed delegation of FSB visiting Prig's HQ, telling him the jig is up, and offer to negotiate something kinda like what wound up happening.  Prig would either have to take it or something bad would happen to him before the revolt could take place.  Lancet, for example, or "everybody you've ever cared about will have accidents".  Prig is absolutely not stupid enough to think he and his loved ones can dodge FSB/GRU goons for 20 years.  Putin does not forget and has shown himself willing to wait many years to serve up his revenge.

So, all Putin had to do was tell Prig the jig was up and then establish a deal that left Prig alive and the plot unraveled.

If that didn't work, Wagner's HQ could have been hit by an Alpha strike force and I doubt anybody in it would wind up living.

Which is to say there is no way, none, that Putin knew about this threat of Prig and did nothing about it EXCEPT if he didn't believe it.  Which I keep saying is highly unlikely given Prig's behavior and Putin's known paranoia.

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

If mass mobilization has so much baggage associated with it, and Wagner's troops are superior anyway, does that leave Russia dependent on Prig? I mean they turned about face and stormed Rostov under his so called leadership. Is Prig replaceable? Everyone is replaceable especially if they are a figure head. Let's see what happens and whether he resurfaces. 

Prig is replaceable, but it would be better if he remained doing what he used to do before he fancied himself Liberator of Bakhmut.  As for Wagner's troops, this is exactly why they would want to negotiate something with Prig instead of having open warfare.  The MoD would much rather have those guys remaining on the battlefield, just not under private control.

9 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I read that. Chief of operations vs the ceremonial general. I was thinking about a northern front too. I would be surprised if they would attack out of Belarus into that awful terrain. I think Wagner might actually outnumber the Belarus armed forces and don't think Lukashenko would like them on their soil. 

No, Wagner would be toast if it tried anything in Belarus without explicit support of Moscow.  Which, of course, is possible.  First off, only a portion of Wagner is going to Belarus (maybe 10,000) and after that I suspect a good chunk will off to Africa.  Second, ammo, fuel, etc. would be necessary to do anything other than a snatch and grab.  It would need reliable resupply from Russia to do more than that.  Third, as bad as the Belarus military is, I do think they could thwart any Wagner move.  They most likely would be very motivated to do so.  A superior skilled force swamped by motivated locals who know their terrain and have the support of the people will almost always win.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

Have Shoigu or Geramasov been seen in public since things kicked off? If not, here is a Longshot theory; the two of them and other high ranking officers were on the plane that got shot down. Prigs goal was to change the command of the MOD and with them dead in the plane crash his goal was achieved. The deal he struck was the best one for everyone left alive to save as much face as possible. In the coming days it will be publicly revealed they were keeping secrets from Putin who now knows just how bad things were going at the front. While it looked like Prig was a traitor, he is really a hero for showing Putin the truth. Or some other BS statements to pacify the Russain public.

If any high ranking MoD officers were killed by Wagner that would greatly complicate things.  Think of a big city with a couple of very powerful competing organized crime families.  They can whack each others' low level criminal guys here and there without it turning into a large scale problem.  But start whacking a LOT of them or targeting key lieutenants and it gets trickier to settle things down.  Killing a "made man", such as Shoigu or Gerasimov, becomes a massive problem.  The MoD clan will not be happy without heads (literally) on a platter.

Changing the power at top of the MoD would be tricky if the MoD clan supported them.  I think at this point their support is probably questionable because of how badly this war is going.  In that case the preferred solution for all parties would be to have Shoigu and Gerasimov be relieved of duties, just as in a democracy.  Worst case would be for them to be arrested on some charges such as corruption.  If they went quietly the charges might be dismissed, if they resist then it will go badly for them.

Steve

[akd]

Things can still spin back out of control very quickly (in comments said it is actually VDV, not Kadyrovites):

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by akd

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

Have Shoigu or Geramasov been seen in public since things kicked off? If not, here is a Longshot theory; the two of them and other high ranking officers were on the plane that got shot down. Prigs goal was to change the command of the MOD and with them dead in the plane crash his goal was achieved. The deal he struck was the best one for everyone left alive to save as much face as possible. In the coming days it will be publicly revealed they were keeping secrets from Putin who now knows just how bad things were going at the front. While it looked like Prig was a traitor, he is really a hero for showing Putin the truth. Or some other BS statements to pacify the Russain public.

I am hearing that Shoigu is under detention and being "investigated for corruption" by the FSB. That alone is a highly charged situation given Putin's intense loyalty to his own loyalists. Dyumin is likely next Defense Minister and also...interestingly...is who arranged the kabuki with Lukashenko.

Can't recommend the article below strongly enough. It gets at the wider game being played out right now. 

 https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/vladimir-putins-weakness-unmasked-yevgeny-prigozhins-rebellion

[Battlefront.com]

I've read a lot of think tanks and kremlinologists talking about the superficial outcomes of this coup as if all the facts are known AND exactly as the Russian government has said they are.  Two really odd assumptions to make

However, they are all correct that this changes the course of Russia's future significantly and not in its favor.  Internally the mess is worse than ever, externally even its supposed allies are wondering how much they should stay invested in Russian interests.  Strength and consistency has been the hallmark of Putin's relationships with certain countries, now that's all thrown into question at the same time Ukraine is still grinding Russia to the bone.  China, in particular, is less likely to expend its policy capital on a regime that might not survive much longer.  The warming relations between India and the US probably just got a boost as well.

Steve

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Third, as bad as the Belarus military is, I do think they could thwart any Wagner move.

My assumption was they would be "invited" in under Putin's orders to Lukashenko. No fighting. I can't imagine Russia attacking Belarus in order to create a northern front. But I can't imagine moving Wagner into Belarus even under invitation would be worth the effort. They be just camping the summer away in the woods. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Things can still spin back out of control very quickly (in comments said it is actually VDV, not Kadyrovites):

 

I'm glad to see that there are others who have not heard the Fat Lady sing yet.

Things are in a delicate state.  There is an apparent agreement between Prig, Putin, and Luka.  Everybody is likely cautious that this can fail for any number of reasons.  If anything significant goes wrong with the execution of this slapdash agreement, violence is likely to erupt again.  Wagner isn't in as strong a position as it was yesterday, but it sure is capable of making problems if they become unhappy with the situation.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I am hearing that Shoigu is under detention and being "investigated for corruption" by the FSB.

OK, so let me get this straight... Prig launched an armed coup, he obviously has the Kremlin by the balls, stops at the gates of Moscow because he supposedly got nervous, he cuts a deal, gets charges dropped, and is now going into exile.  A day later the main rhetorical target of the armed insurrection is now being "investigated" by the same part of the Russian government that did not tell Putin there was an armed insurrection in the works.

So I guess the Russian government was telling the truth!  The coup failed and there's nothing more to see here.  Glad it turns out to be that simple

Seriously, one of the things I said would indicate Prig wasn't a tool for a coup, not the coup itself, is changes in personnel that (up to now) Putin has refused to replace due to their loyalty to him.

If Shoigu goes, I'm confident that alone shows that there was a successful coup.  But I'm also sure it won't be the only major change we will see in the next few days.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[DesertFox]

Superb fireworks on this one

 

 

[Sojourner]

This whole thing with Putin wanting Wagner to sign contracts with MoD brings to mind Clement V trying to get de Molay and de Villarets to merge the Templars and Hospitallers. Remains to be seen how closely this parallels and who gets burned at the stake.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

This whole thing with Putin wanting Wagner to sign contracts with MoD brings to mind Clement V trying to get de Molay and de Villarets to merge the Templars and Hospitallers. Remains to be seen how closely this parallels and who gets burned at the stake.

I am generally anti stake-burning, but for Putin & friends I would happily make exceptions.

I wonder what UKR can do across the Dnieper?  Seems really limited.  But clearly RU was very worried about it.  What can they actually achieve I wonder?  How much force is around the area?  How much could they move quickly?  How much would this help the frontline?  UKR being very very quiet over entire front, hard to know what's going on.

[Joe982]

Prigizan went to Belarus. The Wagner troops returned to their lines facing Ukraine. Wagner is not in Belarus.

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's overall sound and it could be the way it happened.  However, I strongly disagree with her assessment:

Oh he most definitely was!  He had Rostov, there was absolutely *no* need to march on Moscow if all he wanted to do was get Putin's attention and restore Wagner.  Yet he made that extremely risky move and STILL could have gone back to Rostov.

"We have communicated to the President that we do not wish to threaten his office, so we have unilaterally agreed to withdraw to Rostov and carry on discussions instead of fighting".

Either Prig and his conspirators (within Wagner at a minimum) made a fundamental and absolutely moronic strategic error in their planning, then mysteriously decided they had no alternative other than quitting, or there's more to this than meets the eye.

And as I keep saying... how is it possible that the US Intel agencies knew about this coup ahead of time but Putin apparently did not?  Especially since the probable source for much of US Intel is coming straight out of the FSB (intercepts and HUMINT)?  If the FSB knew and didn't do anything about it, why would they do that unless they thought they had something to gain by staying quiet?

Steve

Yup. Also her timing doesn't exactly adds up, Wagner made serious, irreversible road rodeo much earlier than Putin's adress, which was in late morning next day, so it is hard to tell who surprised whom off-guard. As much as I like T. Stanovaya, she made wrong assessments in the past, i.e. not believing Putin will ever be able to formally annex foreign territory. This seems to be the case with all, even best "kremlinologists" after 2022- they all work under auspices of rational, relatively balanced innerworks of state machine, without taking into accounts misuderstandings, emotions, grudges, fears etc. They also probably lost some of their contacts at Kremlin.

 

Another interesting issue, which is what to do with regular units that sided or were neutral to Prig. Here enumeration of some of them (perhaps was posted before, if so sorry, I stillneed to catch on last six pages ) :

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1673088948019638274

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

I guess Point No.5 will be highly relevant the next weeks. I am really curious to learn whether or not RA keeps cohesion.