How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, womble said:

I thought the consensus was that Putin wasn't mobilising because it might piss off the populace, rather than because it might make potential usurpers more powerful.

Correct.  But recruiting sketchy people to fight for sketchy (usually financial) reasons is not the same as rounding up average people.  The similarity is that both pose a risk to the regime if they should turn their guns on it.  The difference is the degree of expected control to ensure it doesn't happen.  Which would you personally fear more... 30 guys who are fighting together for fun and profit or 30 random guys who are upset and want to go home?

Steve

[cesmonkey]

3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

New footage from the dudes serving in the 3rd Assault Brigade.

Intense stuff.

This Russian telegram says:
https://t.me/dva_majors/19371
 

Quote

Antonovsky bridge, our bank of the Dnieper. Kherson Region

The enemy has been holding a small foothold on our coast for at least three days. The units of the Russian Armed Forces withdrew from the area, as the constant action of enemy artillery and SOF of the enemy created a threat of encirclement of our forces. They retreated with battles, neighboring units came to the rescue. As a result of the fighting, the Russian Armed Forces suffered losses.

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

This Russian telegram says:
https://t.me/dva_majors/19371
 

 

I would sure love to see the blowing of the damn backfire in a big way. 

[Jr Buck Private]

How many think Prig will be dead in 6 months?   Just him being alive makes Putin look weak.

But what really makes Putin look weak is how quickly he left Moscow.  Fled like a little coward.  Oh yeah, we all seen his tough guy image, posing shirt off with all those muscles, but deep down he's a little man afraid of his own chef.   Hell, even Stalin remained in Moscow in the face of the Nazi juggernaut.    Contrast Putin's behavior with Zelensky staying in Kiev as the russian tanks rolled south.   Before that moment I thought he was some kind of joke, but you never know what somebody's made of until they face the fire.   There's just no substitute for leadership.   That's why Ukraine will win.

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, Grigb said:

That's what I think as well. Moscow march was leverage to force Putin to change something not to overthrow him specifically. Yet. 

This gets right back to what The_Capt asked about why someone would take such a "high risks" gamble.  The reason is that since 2011 there's been less and less interest on Putin's part to listening to the opinion of others.  It's gotten to the point where it's not even clear he's listening to his hand picked inner circle.

What we just saw was an attempt, perhaps the last one, to get some things changed without removing Putin from power.  If this doesn't work, I think the next time a coup happens it will be a typical "decapitation" style plot where Putin is absolutely targeted with physical harm (kidnapping or assassination).  Probably in conjunction with a significant crisis, such as the southern front collapsing, an uncontrollable economic meltdown, direct confrontation with the west, etc.  What else would there be to do at that point?

Steve

[MOS:96B2P]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In short:

1.  Putin doesn't run for President next year and goes into retirement

2.  A replacement candidate of the plotter's choosing will be groomed as Putin's replacement for the 2024 elections (which will, of course, be rigged as usual).

3.  Putin cedes effective control of the war over to the plotters

We should see signs of it fairly soon, especially #3, if this is what happened.

Steve

#3 is very interesting. 

If the behind the scenes coup plotters are pragmatic, materialistic people yearning to get back to their wealthy lifestyle this war could end with a voluntary Russian withdrawl.  Instead of Ukraine expending the people, equipment. money and damage to infrastructure to force them out.  Of course, I guess its possible the behind the scenes people are warmongering expansionists (hope not).

There has been some talk that the Ukrainian offensive has not been as aggressive or productive as some had hoped. I'm willing to believe its all part of their strategic plan. And now I'm also wondering if the Ukrainians found out, or at least suspected, a Russian coup was in the works. Maybe the Ukrainians at some point decided to slow walk the offensive pending the outcome? No reason to make all the sacrafices to drive the Russians out if they leave on their own.    

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Something seems to be on the move. Lets wait for others to confirm.

 

 

It seems that the negative impact of the dam's destruction on military activities has come to an end.  Now the question is if Ukraine is planning on distractions or something more substantial.  All that popcorn we made for the coup that ended too soon will likely still be fresh enough to eat for the show to come!

Steve

[akd]

Russians firing on wrong side of river and pulling troops out.  Hit on BTR cut from video.

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It seems that the negative impact of the dam's destruction on military activities has come to an end.  Now the question is if Ukraine is planning on distractions or something more substantial.  All that popcorn we made for the coup that ended too soon will likely still be fresh enough to eat for the show to come!

Steve

It is much worse than that for the Russians. There is now no dam to threaten to blow up. if Ukraine thinks they have the air defense to defend a bridging operation the best way to threaten that operation is gone. It is quite possible the entire last month has been a shaping operation to pull Russian forces away from the site of the real plan. And the reach of various  Ukrainian systems, and the geometry of the current front line means Russian forces rushing back towards Kherson would be very vulnerable. And the flood probably disrupted the first belt or two of mines.

[womble]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct.  But recruiting sketchy people to fight for sketchy (usually financial) reasons is not the same as rounding up average people.  The similarity is that both pose a risk to the regime if they should turn their guns on it.  The difference is the degree of expected control to ensure it doesn't happen.  Which would you personally fear more... 30 guys who are fighting together for fun and profit or 30 random guys who are upset and want to go home?

Steve

That would depend very much on how I treated the two groups. If I was to piss them off equally, I'd fear the ones doing it for fun: they might want to have their "fun" with me, whereas the other platoon would just bugger off home.

But that's not the point. The question is whether the 30 random guys who are upset and want to go home will be less upset and less inclined to go home, now they realise how helpless the country is to defend itself inside its own borders. Because, as you agree, that's the question which is stopping Putler setting in progress another wave of mobilisation. Unless it isn't.

[kevinkin]

 

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

It was never about the debt limit.

We are coming to the conclusion the FSB knew something was up. So they either kept it to themselves (heads might roll) or they told Putin. If the they told Putin, he either turned the blind eye, or was complicit to some degree. If he knew, was his flight staged i.e. transponder active? He could have fled in secret if the thought the move on Moscow was a real threat. So why would Putin want to make a fool of himself? Maybe he does care what the world and Russians think (they are brain dead) while finding out who are his real allies in the inner circle. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

#3 is very interesting. 

If the behind the scenes coup plotters are pragmatic, materialistic people yearning to get back to their wealthy lifestyle this war could end with a voluntary Russian withdrawl.  Instead of Ukraine expending the people, equipment. money and damage to infrastructure to force them out.  Of course, I guess its possible the behind the scenes people are warmongering expansionists (hope not).

Since the start of the war I've always seen the Russian power blocs as being a fight between the pragmatists (Prags) and the ultra nationalists (Ultras).  Both groups believe in the exploitation of everybody for their own benefit, but the Prags understand better Russia's limitations while the Ultras do not.. 

The pragmatists weren't happy about Putin's 2014 seizure of Crimea because they thought it was risky and they didn't feel properly consulted.  There was some sort of confrontation with Putin soon after (he disappeared for almost 2 weeks) and the end result was not evident to us, but I suspect (HIGHLY suspect) that Putin was warned off of a full on invasion at that time.  Not enough reward for the risk.

For this war Putin didn't consult with the pragmatists until the day or two before the invasion.  He made it clear that everybody was going to fall in line or else.  The bloody massacre of oligarchs and politically connected people made that very clear.  Being pragmatists, they fell into line even if superficially.

The RU Ultras, on the other hand, were overjoyed by the war at first.  Then they were confused by the failures, which changed to depression, then rage.  They have been raging for a while.

Soooo... were the people who (probably) orchestrated this power play Prags, Ultras, or some combination?  If it is the Prags then we might see some sort of negotiated settlement unfold over time (not right away, I don't think).  If it is the Ultras, then I think we'll see an immediate change in how the war is fought, but no hints at negotiating an end to the war.  I think the Ultras will only negotiate if they know they are beat, which I don't think they believe yet because so far it's been other people screwing up and not them.

If it is a mix of Prags and Ultras then what I expect to see is a combination, starting with a change in how the war is fought with secret negotiations in case it doesn't go well.  The deal could be "if you Ultras can fix this by the Fall, great, otherwise we Prags end this through negotiations".  It may have gotten to the point where the Ultras realize they might have only one shot at fixing things through military means.

38 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

There has been some talk that the Ukrainian offensive has not been as aggressive or productive as some had hoped. I'm willing to believe its all part of their strategic plan. And now I'm also wondering if the Ukrainians found out, or at least suspected, a Russian coup was in the works. Maybe the Ukrainians at some point decided to slow walk the offensive pending the outcome? No reason to make all the sacrafices to drive the Russians out if they leave on their own.    

I think they might have slow walked the last couple of days of fighting, tops, perhaps with their own intel telling them something was in the making.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, womble said:

That would depend very much on how I treated the two groups. If I was to piss them off equally, I'd fear the ones doing it for fun: they might want to have their "fun" with me, whereas the other platoon would just bugger off home.

But that's not the point. The question is whether the 30 random guys who are upset and want to go home will be less upset and less inclined to go home, now they realise how helpless the country is to defend itself inside its own borders. Because, as you agree, that's the question which is stopping Putler setting in progress another wave of mobilisation. Unless it isn't.

It's more complicated than that.  It isn't just that the mass mobilized conscripts themselves would pose a threat to the regime, it is that their extended friends and family would by taking to the streets.  There's also the hit to the economy (mercenaries might even be in prison!) as well as the difficulty of rounding up people who inherently do not want to be rounded up.  The first mobilization didn't go great, but it wasn't regime ending.  The fear appears to be that the next one would go worse and cold be regime ending.

Far easier to recruit a bunch of mercenaries than it is to deal with the blowback for rounding up people who don't want to fight.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

 

We are coming to the conclusion the FSB knew something was up. So they either kept it to themselves (heads might roll) or they told Putin. If the they told Putin, he either turned the blind eye, or was complicit to some degree. If he knew, was his flight staged i.e. transponder active? He could have fled in secret if the thought the move on Moscow was a real threat. So why would Putin want to make a fool of himself?

See previous missives... there is absolutely no case to be made that Putin had any knowledge this was going to happen UNLESS he dismissed it as FSB nonsense.  That is possible, but as I said before it is highly unlikely given Prig's recent behavior.

21 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Maybe he does care what the world and Russians think (they are brain dead) while finding out who are his real allies in the inner circle. 

Putin cares very, very, very much about his image.  The shirtless horseback riding, judo matches, murders he obviously did but didn't admit to, making the West look foolish/inept, etc.  This is the central theme of his time in the public eye.  There is no way, absolutely none, that he would trash that for any reason at all unless he was forced into it to save his own skin.

Steve

[womble]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

The first mobilization didn't go great, but it wasn't regime ending.  The fear appears to be that the next one would go worse and cold be regime ending.

I get that. It's still not the question. The question is: has the recent event with Prig taking over Rostov and dashing up the M4 unopposed changed that calculus any?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, womble said:

I get that. It's still not the question. The question is: has the recent event with Prig taking over Rostov and dashing up the M4 unopposed changed that calculus any?

Ah, well, that is an interesting question.  In theory it should make mass mobilization less likely viable.  It's one thing to be obligated against your will into going into military service because you think the government is all knowing and all powerful, it is another thing if you think it isn't.

If the RU Ultras were the ones behind the coup then it is probable they will go for another mobilization BUT will likely not rush them into the field as cannon fodder like Putin did.  Since the time to have done this was months ago, I don't see them waiting very long.  They would also likely try to get the existing conscripts could be pressed into service as they would be looking to get everybody into Ukraine to win the war.

If the RU Prags are the major source of this coup, I'd expect none of this.  At most maybe a small partial mobilization (100k vs. 300k) under the guise of some sort of reserve force.  The number could be small enough and the need obvious enough to avoid triggering a regime ending event.

Steve

[Grigb]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Soooo... were the people who (probably) orchestrated this power play Prags, Ultras, or some combination? 

It is funny, but I belive they are military pragmatists. They are Ultras in comparison to civilian Pragmatists, but unlike civilian Ultras, they recognize the true limits of the RU army, therefore they decided to finish this war in order to better prepare for the next one. 

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is possible, but as I said before it is highly unlikely given Prig's recent behavior.

So Putin would have stopped the thunder run in its tracks if he had a sniff of it from FSB? Did he have the resources to do so without a lot bloodshed? 

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is no way, absolutely none, that he would trash that for any reason at all unless he was forced into it to save his own skin.

Bingo. However, there a lot of places I would rather go than inside Putin's head. So I can't predict his behavior. 

[DesertFox]

Unlucky...

 

 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, womble said:

I get that. It's still not the question. The question is: has the recent event with Prig taking over Rostov and dashing up the M4 unopposed changed that calculus any?

Mobilization is playing with fire in a warehouse full of gun powder. While the initial mobilization did not destroy the government, it did significantly harm it (economically and politically). This is why the Kremlin is afraid.

Furthermore, the Kremlin does not have a manpower shortage (there are Rosguard and police units). The Kremlin has issues with conventional combat formations. Mobiks will not fix the problem because, even if you have enough AFVs and other vehicles, mobiks are not trained to compete with Wagnerites or AFU.

Finally, because mobiks are unreliable, they cannot be relied on to halt Wagnerites or AFU on their own.

As a result, it is not likely the Wagnerites march impacted mobilization calculations.

[dan/california]

Assuming this wasn't made up to embarrass/denounce someone it is a very interesting statement.

[kevinkin]

If mass mobilization has so much baggage associated with it, and Wagner's troops are superior anyway, does that leave Russia dependent on Prig? I mean they turned about face and stormed Rostov under his so called leadership. Is Prig replaceable? Everyone is replaceable especially if they are a figure head. Let's see what happens and whether he resurfaces. 

[Grigb]

According to Nesmyan (civilian Girkin), officialy the Moscow and Voronezh regions are still subject to the Counter-Terror Protocol, despite the Kremlin's claims that everything would be removed soon.

[Vic4]

10 hours ago, womble said:

It's such a shame that Kadyrov and his TikTok Toy soldiers are so shy. Would have been nice to see them charge into Wagner and both their numbers start ticking down, even if it was only for a day. That said, could they have been instructed to stand clear until the situation resolved a bit more?

How is it that the Chechens have managed to avoid any significant deployment/action throughout the war?

Why wouldn’t Putin/MOD be using them as fodder similar to Wagner as opposed to say VDV/Spetsnaz who have taken tremendous losses and are “ethnic”/core Russians and presumably much more loyal than the Chechens?

I assume Putin/Russia needs Chechnya to absolutely remain in the Russian fold during the conflict, but it seems Putin does not have any leverage to force them to commit significantly. Also concurrently, it would seem logical that the more Russia loses its core forces, Kadyrov’s options and strength only grow exponentially.

Ironically the TikTok bearded clowns seem to be coming out on top of all combatants. What am I missing?

[womble]

24 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

If mass mobilization has so much baggage associated with it, and Wagner's troops are superior anyway, does that leave Russia dependent on Prig? I mean they turned about face and stormed Rostov under his so called leadership. Is Prig replaceable? Everyone is replaceable especially if they are a figure head. Let's see what happens and whether he resurfaces. 

Also relevant is the fate of Utkin, who is, AIUI, the real founder and head of Wagner (though I might've oversimplified or got the wrong end of the stick). He was the one leading the column to Moscow, presumably to pow-wow for the future arrangements of Wagner, and closest to the grasp of the security forces. How do him and Prig get on?

Wagner's troops might all decamp to Belarus, or some of them might sign up with the MoD, like they're supposed to. Either way up, until the Russians decide to reopen the northern front again, Prig isn't going to be doing anything to help Russia in Ukraine. His (former) employees might, if they sign on the dotted line.

Another question: does the MoD demand that volunteers (which included Wagner) sign MoD contracts apply to the proliferation of other PMCs that are, somewhat, outside the control of the MoD, currently? Or was it solely directed at Wagner (or did that become a limit of its scope since Wagner's antics over Saturday)? And if it does, how does that affect the likelihood and nature of future power grabs by other parties? Could those who have been bankrolling these private armies have been among the shadowy backroom figures who might've sponsored Prig's adventure, with one of their goals being to not be swept up in the MoD collectivisation?