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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Kamil has an alternative theory that I rather like, Putin and Medvedev were supposed to be at this festival in St Petersburg this weekend. There was a  very special greeting planned for them. Either because they were warned, or random whatever they didn't show up. Prig had already set his piece of the plan in motion, and figured he had to proceed regardless of the failure of the first stage of the Plot. Prigs piece turned out to succeed beyond anyones wildest dreams, so he isn't dead, yet.

 

Edit: No one will be able to insult the plot of a bad novel ever again.

Second edit: Given the tone of the WaPo article, did the U.S. warn him?

What exactly did happen in St.Peterburg? Do we know? And was Prig perhaps forced into action by the attack on his forces in the South and forced to improvise before he could take out Putin while all the time he was just a pawn in a clever plot to weaken Putin's position? 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What exactly did happen in St.Peterburg? Do we know? And was Prig perhaps forced into action by the attack on his forces in the South and forced to improvise before he could take out Putin while all the time he was just a pawn in a clever plot to weaken Putin's position? 

 

 

 

  1. We don't know anything about Peterburg yet.
  2. We have no indication that his camp was attacked at all.
  3. It does not appear to be like a total improvisation. Some aspects are, but the overall plan most likely is not.
  4. Prig does appear to be just the public face of this... performance. But we have little information regarding the real goals.
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We have new contestant in the RU Game of Clown Thrones

https://t.me/strelkovii/5708

Claim - Girkin quotes private channel

Dmitry Utkin led the column of the Wagner PMC that was driving to Moscow. Utkin's staff group devised a plan to enter the city and block [surround] the Ministry of Defense and General Staff buildings. It is unknown whether General Mizintsev was involved in the planning of the "March on Moscow."

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17 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

This will go down in history as: 'The Great Patriotic Coup D'état'. 

Indeed. To me it looks like the next step in the annexation of Belorussia.

As all does doesn't make much sense yet, the only really important question is whether we should expect more escalation or the opposite. Given the number of lunatics surroundung Putin I fear the worst.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

We have new contestant in the RU Game of Clown Thrones

https://t.me/strelkovii/5708

Claim - Girkin quotes private channel

Dmitry Utkin led the column of the Wagner PMC that was driving to Moscow. 

Ah yes, the guy with the SS rune tattoos. Fighting the ukronazis...

utkin.jpg&w=3840&q=75

Assuming he joins Prig in exile, he should be right at home in 'White Russia'.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaminski_Brigade

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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Morning update

10:02

https://t.me/GrafinyaNegoduet/1390

Claim the downed aircraft was IL-22 (not IL-18). 10 men died. Claim it was attacked due to stupidity of Wagnerite AA guy

10:18

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/64975aec9a7947530997c111

"CTO [Counter-terror protocol] will be canceled in the very near future," a Kremlin spokesman said. "Due to the fact that the process of escalating tensions has been reversed, there will be all the prerequisites for this," he added.

[This is Kremlin speak for - there is no firm date for that]

11:00

More rumors about the deal but no confirmation of any sort

11:11

https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10913

Video: Rostov - civilians are protesting arrival of Police after retreat of Wagnerites. They shout - Traitors!

11:15

https://t.me/KotNaMirotvorze/16772

Claim - No Personnel changes [at RU MOD] today

11:20

Ru Nats are asking who was onboard of IL-22? [It was flying Command Point]

https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10914

Nesmyan (Civilian Girkin) Opinion

On the contrary, people cheerfully socialized, photographed and posed against the backdrop [of Wagnerites], had intimate chats, and raced to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away from [HQ].

No one came out to block tanks with Putin portraits; the change in power in their brains happened very instantaneously. If Prigozhin had captured Moscow, I believe he could easily have organized a demonstration in Luzhniki [stadium] under the banner "Let us support Russia's hope!"

11:24

https://t.me/operline_ru/36003

Claim - IL-22 was carrying operational group from staff of Western Military District. RU Nats are curios why it was sent to the area.

11:25

https://t.me/strelkovii/5708

Claim - Girkin quotes private channel

Dmitry Utkin led the column of the Wagner PMC that was driving to Moscow. Utkin's staff group devised a plan to enter the city and block [surround] the Ministry of Defense and General Staff buildings. It is unknown whether General Mizintsev was involved in the planning of the "March on Moscow."

11:34

https://t.me/bumaznayaZmeya/33403

Post from local woman that can be interpreted that Kolomna bridge is still blocked and not accessible and most likely will not be accessible tomorrow.

11:38

https://t.me/cmiye/11375

Report from Locals

The Counter-Terror Protocol  was canceled everywhere except the Moscow region. Chechens are still standing in Kolomna, roads are [still]  blocked. Tomorrow the children will have the Unified State Exam, but teachers can't go for assignments because of closed roads. No orders have been received from the leadership of the Moscow region so far. Governor Vorobyov has been silent for more than a day. And in general, everyone is wondering where he is. It's no secret that Vorobyov is very close to the "Shoigu family" and yesterday's events made him a little nervous.

11:59

New rumors that Second season of RU Game of Clown Thrones is coming, without Prig but with Wagnerite military leadership (Utkin)

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10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ah yes, the guy with the SS rune tattoos. Fighting the ukronazis...

utkin.jpg&w=3840&q=75

Assuming he joins Prig in exile, he should be right at home in 'White Russia'.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaminski_Brigade

I wonder how he will do if he is one day promoted to the superior rank...strange things in Russia.

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UKR situation morning update

10:37

https://t.me/dva_majors/19334

RU claim AFU gained foothold near Antonovsky bridge

Antonovsky Bridge. The area of Dachas [cottage houses].

Kherson direction at 10.30 25.06

The enemy returned to their original location after the flood [AFU had a presence here before to the flood]. Several [RU] assault parties have attempted to retake this territory. They got involved in a gun fight, requested artillery help, and made good headway until they reached the depths of the Dachas. [RU retreated] Back to the starting positions.

The intensity of artillery work in the area has escalated dramatically in recent days.

The enemy's losses remain unclear.

However, [to avoid arty fire] the boats constantly change berths and go at top speed.

11:04

https://t.me/rusich_army/9594

RU Nat confirmation that Ka-52 is downed and crew is most likely dead

11:29

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/16918

UKR DeepState - most reliable (and because of that often the slowest) UKR source

Situation at the front as of the end of the day on June 24, 2023

  • Belorussian, Belgorod and Seversky fronts — no changes.
  • Svatovsky front - the enemy continues local offensive operations toward the positions of our troops in the area of the Serebryansky Forestry [Woodland South-West from Kremmina].
  • Bakhmut front - fighting continues to the west of Klishiivka and near the SiveroDonetsk canal. In both places, the Ukrainian armed forces had partial success.
  • Avdiivka front - no changes. A colossal attack was repelled by our defenders. The enemy used more than a dozen AFVs and for several days actively tried to break through the defense along the Vesele-Krutaya Balka line. In Marinka, the enemy continues to attack, the defense of the settlemt continues for the 17th month.
  • Berdyansk direction - fighting continues on the Levadne-Novodarivka section. The enemy is clunging to the ledge and will try to hold it at all costs.
  • Zaporozhye front - fighting continues north of Robotne, the Ukrainian armed forces again had a partial success.
  • Tavrichesky front - no changes.
  • Attempted military coup in the Russian Federation. The coup completely failed. There is one more political corpse in the Russian Federation. And the whole world has seen that almost all the power resources of the katsaps are now in Ukraine, and if a military competitor appears in the same weight category, the Muscovites have no chance to defend their country.

Analytical note. The enemy has enough reserve and forces to continue offensive operations in a number of sectors of the front. The [Ukraine] Defense Forces continue their limited offensive operations and are making progress. To understand how difficult it is to return every meter of land, you can see the recent changes near Klishcheyevka, where the Ztgr "Azov" (3 Separate Assault Brigade and attached units) and "Adam" (80 SAirABr and 5 SABr ) gnaw our land from f*ggots..

Today we want to celebrate the successful actions of 110 SMRBr  and 3 SABr

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16 minutes ago, JM Stuff said:

I wonder how he will do if he is one day promoted to the superior rank...strange things in Russia.

RU military does have fetish with WW2 Germans -RU BTGr concept was based on German Kampf groups. For RU military Allies are heinous weak untermesh that lack spiritual strength. Germans of Nazi period however are seen as evil but equal in spiritual strength to RU.

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1 minute ago, Astrophel said:

The simple explanation for what happened yesterday is that Putin paid up.  Wagner is a mercenary group after all.

Yeah, it's also possible that Prig isn't the front for a deeper, more complex "elite" conspiracy, that he had simply reached the point where he had nothing left to lose, and that Utkin and the boys went along simply because they were sick of all the BS and well aware military catastrophe in Ukraine is pending.

me-and-the-boys-meme.gif

 

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Does Prig's (or Utkin's) Thunder Run past Voronezh give Putin more cause/ability to undertake a further mobilisation of the general Russian populace? It's demonstrated what "could happen" if UKR break the current lines, and with the "loss" of chunks of Wagner, there's gonna be personnel holes to fill.

If there were to be a mobilisation wave, with half going straight to the front after a fortnight's Basic, and the rest getting "proper training", would that put UKR onto a tighter clock, with (slightly) stiffer headwinds? Or would it make no difference to the Summer's activities?

It's such a shame that Kadyrov and his TikTok Toy soldiers are so shy. Would have been nice to see them charge into Wagner and both their numbers start ticking down, even if it was only for a day. That said, could they have been instructed to stand clear until the situation resolved a bit more?

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