How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

 

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Peskov denied any talks about RU MOD leadership changes.

[kevinkin]

TV News Report

Prig moving to Belarus as part of "deal".

 

[FancyCat]

Well ****. Not great for Ukraine.

 

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

None of this makes a lick of sense.  Wagner owned the M4 up to 200kms of Moscow.  They basically were holding Rostov.  And now “sorry, just a temper tantrum?  Got a bit Hangry before lunch”. Prig retires to Belarus, Wagner basically dissolved and Putin goes back to meetings for the summer Corn Festival?

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The big IF is whether or not they can box Putin up in a post-regime.  The guy has billions and powerful friends as well as enemies.

Another spin.  What is this whole theatre is to give Russia an excuse to pull out of Ukraine?  Putin’s sidelined, “for the good and internal security of the Federation”, “we taught them a lesson but now we must heal” or whatever horsesh#t they come up with.  Russia really needed an excuse to get the hell out and somehow not fall apart in the process, those whose, stunt could have set the conditions for that…but again Putin would have to be removed from the picture for this to work.

Nah, you are being too rational. Whole Prig's action was exactly because he believes Ukraine isn't conquered because the top is infested with Soviet idiots. And I mean he's right about the latter part.

Conquering Ukraine and eliminating the nation is a cornerstone of Russian empire existing. Anything else but total victory is the end.

It's literally why they keep pursuing maximalist targets despite not having a chance.

[danfrodo]

My vote:  Prig is dead man walking.  Just a matter or time, a short time.  He will be poisoned or (allegedly) murdered by a disgruntled former employee or some such.  And Wagner will have some new boss. 

Putin will become more insular, knowing the knives are out, and more factions will grow more powerful, until someone else makes a move.  The power is there for the taking it seems.  Not easy, but at least now everyone knows it's very possible.  A few nasty losses in UKR should set things up nicely.

[kevinkin]

Who knows:

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/2500093-russian-mercenary-boss-prigozhin-will-move-to-belarus-under-wagner-deal-kremlin-says

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/world/article/alert-kremlin-spokesman-says-wagner-owner-18169127.php

Edited June 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[FancyCat]

Turkish coup that failed.....same story here? I dunno but Wagner sounds dissolved...

[Sojourner]

Remember, people, this is Wagner we're talking about after all.

It ain't over until, well, you know...

I'm still waiting for the aria.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Sojourner

[FancyCat]

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Turkish coup that failed.....same story here?

No, I don't think so.  The Turkish coup plotters never really gained anything before they got crushed.  Prig absolutely had the upper hand even if he didn't go into Moscow, which I think he absolutely could have done if he wanted to.  Yet the information we are receiving seems to indicate that Prig lost even though he what he needed to win.  How is this possible?

There's nothing Prig is getting out of this supposed deal that he couldn't have gotten by other means.  Therefore, this was not what Prig set out to achieve.  So if he really is agreeing to this, then Putin somehow came out on top.  F if I know how, though.

Maybe Prig got himself captured or put into a position where he was physically intimidated into giving up?  For sure Prig would sell out all of Wagner to save his own skin.

Steve

[sburke]

Somebody should dub this.

 

[kevinkin]

BBC:

Russian state media have just reported that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave for Belarus.

The reports say charges against him and his Wagner forces will be dropped by Russian authorities to avoid "bloodshed".

Also

Russia offers military roles to Wagner fighters
We've just heard from Dmitry Peskov, President Putin's press secretary.

Peskov says Wagner mercenaries who wish to sign a Ministry of Defence contract can, and fighters who took part today's uprising will not be prosecuted.

Is this the end of Wagner, at least in this war?

Edited June 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

There's nothing Prig is getting out of this supposed deal that he couldn't have gotten by other means.  Therefore, this was not what Prig set out to achieve.  So if he really is agreeing to this, then Putin somehow came out on top.  F if I know how, though.

Maybe Prig got himself captured or put into a position where he was physically intimidated into giving up?  For sure Prig would sell out all of Wagner to save his own skin.

This, or there are some hidden clauses in the "deal" we will only learn later on. As it stands right now, that what is circulating around doesn't make any sense.

[FancyCat]

Let's dial it back some. Prig was about to lose his power and life?, he called MoD's bluff? Neither want to do full scale gang war, so having shown he can escalate, he gets to live, gets to do something in Belarus, keeps a small army, and gets actual power recognition by everyone including Putin. If it ain't some Turkish coup power play, maybe reality is taking over the Russian state isnt easy, nor exactly desired...plus a cook ain't becoming head of state. He probably would have been quietly rid of had he gotten to Moscow and trapped by bureaucracy.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Let's dial it back some. Prig was about to lose his power and life?,

Actually, that's not exactly correct.  Prig's foreign operations, especially in Africa, are of strategic interest to Putin's concept of foreign policy.  In fact, when Prig first withdrew from Bakhmut he said this is exactly what he was going to focus on.  This would be in Russia's best interests to go along with.  Prig had a lot to negotiate with even without threatening a coup, not to mention conducting one.

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

he called MoD's bluff? Neither want to do full scale gang war, so having shown he can escalate, he gets to live, gets to do something in Belarus, keeps a small army, and gets actual power recognition by everyone including Putin.

He could have negotiated for this end result before launching the coup.  And since it would be in Russia's best interests, I think Putin would have accepted it.

No, it has to be something bigger. 

WHATEVER the real situation is, it is NOT what we're begin told by the Russian MoD and Peskov.  No f'n way is that the whole story or even the most important part of the story. Unfortunately, we are lacking some very critical piece of information that is needed to point us in the right direction.

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

He got something out of that deal. Maybe the compromise is that his rivals are being sidelined, but don't step down publically, so that Putin can save some face? Maybe there was a strike planned against him and the Wagner organisation that we are not aware of and that is off the table?

[Battlefront.com]

Hey, looks like Solovyov finally spoke about the crisis!  Fun that it came from his car while he was fleeing Moscow

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14hox1s/i_dont_want_to_leave_moscow_solovyov_whats_the/

Steve

[pintere]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Let's dial it back some. Prig was about to lose his power and life?, he called MoD's bluff? Neither want to do full scale gang war, so having shown he can escalate, he gets to live, gets to do something in Belarus, keeps a small army, and gets actual power recognition by everyone including Putin. If it ain't some Turkish coup power play, maybe reality is taking over the Russian state isnt easy, nor exactly desired...plus a cook ain't becoming head of state. He probably would have been quietly rid of had he gotten to Moscow and trapped by bureaucracy.

That’s the only way this whole thing would make sense then. Somehow, Prig came to the conclusion that his grip on Wagner was slipping and he himself was in danger. So, in order to prevent the MOD from achieving their plans, he decided to make his move like this. 

But, either before or during the process of his thunder run to Moscow, he decided that he had no realistic chance to topple Putin and so forced what he thought were good concessions when he had Moscow by the throat. 

Maybe he’s just trying to buy time while maintaining a decent contingent of troops he can rely on. What his (and Putin‘s) long game is remains to be seen.

[kraze]

Well apart from 13 pilots dead as of now, which is admittedly a superb result for a single day, this "coup" resulted in two other casualties among "good russians".

Sobchak openly supported putin.

Khodorkovsky openly supported Prig.

Wonder how either of these "liberals" feels now? Probably wtf'ing over blowing their load prematurely and nullifying any credibility certain wishful thinkers provided them with.

[kevinkin]

Given the speed of the resolution of the matter (hours) might have some of this been pre-planned? Putin gets Prig out of his hair and screws with Russian mind for a while and Prig goes out some sort of hero. I think term false-flag might start popping up. But with a dozen dead, not so sure. But I agree, its's too early to tell and rely on official Russian statements. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by kevinkin

[kimbosbread]

I agree it makes no sense that Prigogine would make a deal when he has the upper hand. And if Uktin and half of Wagner are already in Moscow, why would they follow through with the deal?

What kind of deal could it possibly be?

- Prigogine is now ruler of Russia?

- Prigogine is now ruler of Belarus?

- ????

EDIT: There’s no way this is beneficial to Putin. To Russian elite maybe, as a way to pin blame for war on Putin, withdraw from Ukraine etc.

Edited June 24, 2023 by kimbosbread

[sburke]

I can't see this thing being staged.  Not when your army is facing a counter offensive and is already on the ropes.. but then this is Russia.  I have to stop trying to make this rational.

[FancyCat]

Tbh I'm not sure if Ukraine gained much or even i think lost a bit. Depending on the terms of Wagner and Prig in Belarus, Ukraine may need to deal with a armed force that can and is willing to attack the north. One thing to remember sure, Prig called the war goals and reasoning lies and falsehoods, but it is extremely clear the Russian people have been lobotomized politically, the Russian elite content with invading Ukraine. Reasoning means nothing domestically, only the material reality. Reality is war is profitable, especially for people like Prig who gained power, wealth off of the SMO, and certainly staying the war promises continued reasoning and material for existence. The prospect of war, the loot, the pay clearly is enough to gain some sort of semibalance of manpower increase.

Consider the fact Wagner has noted victories, certainly a portion of low ranking sympathy for Prig is in the fact that he has wins.

End of the day, no matter who rules in Russia, everyone seems to agree that killing Ukrainians is perfectly fine. Only that they aren't killing them effectively or doing what's needed to kill them.

[Seedorf81]

Just for arguments' sake. Could this stranger than strange day have underlying motives like these..

 

Putin and Prigozjin have been friends all along and still are. Never any real danger for either!

Prigozjin told his friend Putin that he wants to leave Ukraine (because he knows his "superior" Wagnerarmy is being massacered and if he stays he loses everything) and needs a way out.

Lukashenko is considered by both to be a growing liability and needs someone close by as a guard against roque behaviour. Wagner in Belorussia gives also more pressure on Ukraine.

Any diversion from the almost endless bad news producing Ukranian-fiasco is welcome. Any diversion.

In order to reveal where possible adversaries are, creating a very confusing scenario where people will (have to) show where their loyalties lie, can do the trick. (Stalin was very good at that.) Those who support a "mutinous situation" will be registered, and dealt with later on.

As long as it will be clear who the final victor is (Putin), a "threatening" situation is not bad in the long run, because the people will remember that Putin still wins, even in very difficult situations.

Test the loyalty, willingness and capabilities of the Army in case of a coup, without it being a real coup.

Be as Machiavellian as can be in order to "divide and conquer". Show fake weakness, trick, deceive, maskerade, lie. Be silent where people expect you to speak, do nothing where people expect you to act decisively. Make as much chaos as possible, because in the end that will benefit you.

Winning in Ukraine? Stop NATO from growing? Restoring Russia's Greatness?

Who cares? There is only one thing that matters, and that is staying in power.