How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Whoever picked the timing for these ongoing NATO exercises is adding a star. It is EXACTLY the right time for NATO to be in high state of readiness.

[sburke]

sucks that I hate popcorn.  Time to pull out some wine, cheese and a baguette.  Gonna be a long night.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I would say, “Yes”.  This was all the discussion about a theory of Russian defeat…and right now it looks like there isn’t one.  If Russia goes into complete free fall it could get very crazy very fast.  We have never had a nuclear power have a full scale civil war, so let’s hope it does not come to it as we are basically off the map.

Key thing to watch out for is the direction of the wind in the RA.  If they start peeling off in support of Wagner in significant numbers the sh#tshow is likely on.  If it stays down to “just” Wagner’s reported 25k troops in Russia plus whatever they have in other countries it might be slower burning…maybe.

Heh... we cross posted!  I went back and edited in a caveat while you were composing this.

"For the war, no, but for Russia's future it could. "

This could be the destabilization event in Russia to end this war without another 50k Ukrainian casualties, so from the war's standpoint if Russia collapses it is a good thing no matter what the specifics are.

What comes AFTER that, however, is a different matter.  As we have discussed many times, the plausible scenarios for collapse range between acceptable and horrific.  Not a single plausible scenario is good.  That does worry me.

Steve

[sburke]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Whoever picked the timing for these ongoing NATO exercises is adding a star. It is EXACTLY the right time for NATO to be in high state of readiness.

considering the state of the German army, this all might be better served by showing them loading all this hardware on a train bound for Ukraine.

[Hapless]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

a successful seizure of rail infrastructure in Rostov gives him a huge amount of power.  What he would do with that is anybody's guess

Rename it Prigozhingrad, declare himself mini-Tsar and start charging the MoD to use the railways?

Jokes aside, if what he wants is leverage to force the MoD to back off and get himself into a position of critical importance, he's going for the right place. The MoD have a choice between cutting a deal or trying to dig him out- or alternatively, Putin has a choice between cutting Shoigu and Gerasimov out or watching the war collapse.

[FancyCat]

Prig is insane. Still wondering if this is a ploy, it’s insane, for him to go full bore, unless his head was on the line. I’ve heard there were a few MoD officials who joined Wagner, I wonder what or how many units or ranking personnel have sympathy for Wagner, could be swayed into neutrality?

budavov is getting another medal for sure, I wonder how Russian pro-ppl are thinking….

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Hapless said:

Putin has a choice between cutting Shoigu and Gerasimov out or watching the war collapse.

IMHO Putin has no choice at all. Either he has the army behind him or he'll end like Beria.

 

[domfluff]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

In Russia, my guess is that Wagner will need to bring elements of the RA onto their side for this thing to go anywhere.  Unless, gawd help us, Warren has managed to get its hands on WMDs of some sort. 

...something you want to tell us?

[cesmonkey]

Google Maps traffic shows the road closure leading out of Rostov-On-Don. Try it yourself.

Edited June 23, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Second, Russia is going to have to devote at least 2x whatever amount of Wagnerites throw in with Prig.  Let's say 10,000 Wagnerites = 20,000 MoD/Rosgvardiya troops.  Wagner's guys will likely chew them to pieces.  So there will likely need to be an investment of more significant forces, including withdrawing Spetsnaz from the frontlines.  That's a double hit to Russia's military capacity.

Perhaps minority of all Wagnerites are going down with the ship. I frankly wouldn't be surprised if he only has several hundreds daredevils under his direct command... but if indeed he will go to Rostov and capture (hipothetically) part of it, it may pose a problem beyond failed coup.

Regulars are likely to arrest most active Prig followers (btw. where is Utkin standing?) but most of his troops are too valuable to write them off.

 

Tom Clancy wouldn't believe in all of it, damn me. Surprises lack of videos or photos, beyond statements and claims.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[akd]

 

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Rename it Prigozhingrad, declare himself mini-Tsar and start charging the MoD to use the railways?

Jokes aside, if what he wants is leverage to force the MoD to back off and get himself into a position of critical importance, he's going for the right place. The MoD have a choice between cutting a deal or trying to dig him out- or alternatively, Putin has a choice between cutting Shoigu and Gerasimov out or watching the war collapse.

But what end game is there for Prig?  Even if Putin decides he is forced to make a deal w Prig, Prig is dead first change Putin gets.  So Prig needs Putin gone or else it's just a matter of time.  This will never be forgiven.  I am currently on the 'Prig is desperate' bandwagon and made whatever move he could.  Of course, he's in this mess because of his own unbelievably stupid mouth. 

I expect we'll keep seeing pleas to soldiers to join him plus promises to bring them all home.   Which is amusing because he also wants the traitors who lost Kherson dead, yet he's probably going to promise to lose everything.

If I am Putin I am promising to wire money into the bank accounts of Wagernites if they turn on Prig.  They are mercenaries, after all.  Putin will, of course, renege as much as possible and just send them straight to the front in penal platoons. 

Dang this is fun!  And hopfully thousands of Ukrainians are unharmed because some idiot got himself into a bind and then brings the whole war effort down with him.

[DesertFox]

If only remotely true, we might see Rostov on Don blocking all supply for RuAF units in southern ukraine very soon

 

.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps minority of all Wagnerites are going down with the ship. I frankly wouldn't be surprised if he only has several hundreds daredevils under his direct command... but if indeed he will go to Rostov and capture (hipothetically) part of it, it may pose a problem beyond failed coup.

Even if he has a few hundred, that's enough to hold supplies hostage.  But I think he's going to have more fighting on his side.  These guys are unlikely to trust the MoD and FSB to treat them fairly after giving up.  At the very least they might think they'll never get a job again.

Steve

[billbindc]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Nothing good.  Wagner is pretty big and wide scope so that will mean resources diverted to get this back under control.  Priority will be Russia but Wagner is all over the MENA and can quickly turn into a highly hooked up terror organization - we might start seeming Russian industry/commercial and diplomatic interest having sudden accidents.

In Russia, my guess is that Wagner will need to bring elements of the RA onto their side for this thing to go anywhere.  Unless, gawd help us, Warren has managed to get its hands on WMDs of some sort.  High end, disruption gets so big the RA in Ukraine collapses strategically to try and contain this.  Middle end, significant disruption, that has operational effects which could accelerate the UA timetable.  Low end, this things get tied off quickly and tightly.  Prig winds up taking a dirt nap, maybe after a show trial and Putin/MoD stays really nervous with more smoking accidents as I already mentioned.

What are your expected logistical effects on the war if Wagner takes and holds up things at Rostov for a week or two?

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even if he has a few hundred, that's enough to hold supplies hostage.  But I think he's going to have more fighting on his side.  These guys are unlikely to trust the MoD and FSB to treat them fairly after giving up.  At the very least they might think they'll never get a job again.

Steve

Te Wagnerites have many, many flaws, illusions are not one of them.

[Hapless]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

But what end game is there for Prig?

Living a couple of days longer? Going down fighting? Hoping that Putin will see the truth those nasty MoD types have been hiding from him and then back him up? Who knows.

He still seems to be posing as the loyal Boyar force to take things into his own hands by the disloyal lying other Boyars.

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even if he has a few hundred, that's enough to hold supplies hostage.  But I think he's going to have more fighting on his side.  These guys are unlikely to trust the MoD and FSB to treat them fairly after giving up.  At the very least they might think they'll never get a job again.

Steve

If he indeed has over 1k fighters on his side, this is almost as bad fookup on behalf of FSB/GRU as the one that lead to this entire war, that cannot remain unpunished. They should have his wariors under constant survaillance, even us amatours with keyboards understood that he was getting progressivelly rebellious over past months.

All of it is very odd.

[FancyCat]

We should be cautious, there’s no evidence of anyone being on Prigozhin’s side. Big chance they catch Prigozhin and the rest of Wagner signs the contracts.

[The_Capt]

Pretty damned significant.  He could basically cut off Crimea’s back door for starters.  Which would mean all logistics would be reliant on the strategic land bridge or sea.   If he could spread the pain for enough he could severely cut off DPR/LNR - there are some corridors from the North they could try to push down.  

RA units would be in dire straights as they basically have very angry Ukrainians to the front of a very long front line, while Wagner plays merry f#ckery on what looks like about 80% of their LOCs.  Wagner would basically have them by the sustainment testicles.  

RA could not let this stand as it would severely risk collapse of their front line positions in about a week of full choke is applied.  Airstrikes are really problematic as a solution, not only because Wagner likely has AD but trying to figure out who is who on the ground gets really tricky.  

And then there is the SOF factor.  Wagner is not only “elite”, they are set up to fight like SOF which means highly distributed.  So we could see a boiling insurgency in front of the more conventional troops.  If Prig is smart he could turn this into a real play by simply threatening the entire RA in Ukraine.

Any chance him and Putin will make nice-nice and blame it on someone they can throw out a window?

Edited June 24, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

We should be cautious, there’s no evidence of anyone being on Prigozhin’s side. Big chance they catch Prigozhin and the rest of Wagner signs the contracts.

Now that is the real rub…does Wagner hold it together?  If he has 25k troops in the back country and they stick it out this could be a game changer…up to world ender.  If they evaporate somewhat, we could be looking at a really nasty insurgency in the backfield.  Or they completely fold up and hang Prig from a pole.

Pretty much all up for grabs really.  Happy Friday.

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Pretty damned significant.  He could basically cut off Crimea’s back door for starters.  Which would mean all logistics would be reliant on the strategic land bridge or sea.   If he could spread the pain for enough he could severely cut off DPR/LNR - there are some corridors from the North they could try to push down.  

RA units would be in dire straights as they basically have very angry Ukrainians to the front of a very long front line, while Wagner plays merry f#ckery on what looks like about 80% of their LOCs.  Wagner would basically have them by the sustainment testicles.  

RA could not let this stand as it would severely risk collapse of their front line positions in about a week of full choke is applied.  Airstrikes are really problematic as a solution, not only because Wagner likely has AD but trying to figure out who is who on the ground gets really tricky.  

And then there is the SOF factor.  Wagner is not only “elite”, they are set up to fight like SOF which means highly distributed.  So we could see a boiling insurgency in front of the more conventional troops.  If Prig is smart he could turn this into a real play by simply threatening the entire RA in Ukraine.

Any chance him and Putin will make nice-nice and blame it on someone they can throw out a window?

Theoretically, yes. It doesn't look that situation is even remotelly that dire, though- no serious reports of any infights beside perhaps some "breakaway" from Bakhmut only noted by Ukrainians. We don't know how many guys are with Prig, there is close to zero support for his moves basically anywhere in Russian structures so far. Nobody seem to use violence till now, and 90% of events are in declarations online... perhaps it was intended as some small show of support/discontent on behalf of coteries that get out of hand?

[Kinophile]

Three things for sure:

1. This is a Mutiny - not a Coup. 

2. Wagner will not be returning to Ukraine front for the foreseeable future. 

3. Russian MoD is now fighting a war on three fronts - vs ZSU,  vs. RDK/RFL,  vs.  Wagner (or four if you count Partisans in the occupied territories). 

Once mutineers act all bets are off,  as the price point for failing in the mutiny is pretty brutal. So Prigozhin has made his move and he absolutely cannot half-*** it. He's all in now, so he'll want to really grab something vital and not let go. 

Rostov on Don matches that description nicely. 

After that,  it's:

1) how does he turn it into political dividends 

2) how does he future proof himself against retaliatory attacks. 

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[chuckdyke]

I would advice to invest in popcorn manufacturers shares. To watch Wagner Forces vs Russian Regulars. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

This is where I remind you that Timothy Snyder predicted something like this last October.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war