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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There are many reports about essentially every military aged male in the L/DPR being dead, wounded, captured, or in the case of the very lucky fled to another country. The defenses in front of Donetsk itself may just be so undermanned that the quantity of trenches and concrete just doesn't matter anymore. Breaking thru at Bakmuht, and then going behind Donetsk city to cut the land bridge would be the power move of all power moves. Russian logistics would just dissolve, never mind the morale.

I read this opinion, but our soldiers say that in whole old LDPR brigades saved enough of veteran troops and especially commanders from battalion and above. Also many of retired fighters with some 2014-2015 experience were mobilized. LDPR old brigades burn in attacks Russian and own LDPR mobiks, but try to save own core if it's possible.  

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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If this is real, and I assume some combination of NATO, and Ukrainian intelligence can check fairly well, this is the monment for Ukraine to PUSH IT. The Russians will never be more distracted than they are right now. It might also be the moment for all the deep fakes and other methods of issuing false orders to Russian units I suspect Ukraine has been working on. I am pretty sure they have been working on a lot of that.

Exactly, this chaos could be godsend for Ukraine, stun the enemy while it's confused

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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If this is real, and I assume some combination of NATO, and Ukrainian intelligence can check fairly well, this is the monment for Ukraine to PUSH IT. The Russians will never be more distracted than they are right now. It might also be the moment for all the deep fakes and other methods of issuing false orders to Russian units I suspect Ukraine has been working on. I am pretty sure they have been working on a lot of that.

It's all coming together.

  • NATO reinforcements flowing into Europe for BALTOPS and Air Defender 23 as deterrence in case things get crazy in Moscow during the counteroffensive.
  • Things actually going crazy in Russia during the counteroffensive.
  • The offensive itself switching into high-gear.
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10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Can the cook do the coup?

He probably makes his own tea, so he might be ahead of other contenders.

We are not yet seeing the amount of violence implied by the multi sided information op that seems to be underway on the Russian side. Still not quite sure if this is a real break, or some sort of scripted show.

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3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We are not yet seeing the amount of violence implied by the multi sided information op that seems to be underway on the Russian side. Still not quite sure if this is a real break, or some sort of scripted show.

I lean heavily towards it being a real break. There is no reason for Russia to project this sort of instability while they are fighting off Ukraine's biggest offensive of the war. As for not seeing the violence, stuff happening right now mostly won't be posted online for another 12 hours.

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39 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If this is real, and I assume some combination of NATO, and Ukrainian intelligence can check fairly well, this is the monment for Ukraine to PUSH IT. The Russians will never be more distracted than they are right now. It might also be the moment for all the deep fakes and other methods of issuing false orders to Russian units I suspect Ukraine has been working on. I am pretty sure they have been working on a lot of that.

Given the existing comms between Wagner and Ukraine for prisoner exchange, maybe we made a deal with Prigogine? He seems much less nutty than everybody else on the other side.

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The tweet below won't embed for some reason, but it quotes Rybar who claims that RU Ministry of Justice added Prighozhin to the list of foreign agents. Whatever is going on in there seems to be very, very serious.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1672328018063130625

Edit: and now this:

 

Edited by Huba
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Rybar reporting that Rosgvardiya is mobilizing (units not already mobilized / kinetically demobilized in Ukraine presumably).  If if they just go through a pantomime of a coup attempt, the damage to Russian state image will be huge.  World must immediately tap strategic popcorn reserves.

Edited by akd
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War Zone reports on the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB):

A top Pentagon official on Thursday testified before Congress that those weapons won’t come online until this Fall. She also said while controversial cluster munitions would “be useful” to Ukraine, the U.S. has no immediate plans to provide them for a host of reasons.

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14 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Given the existing comms between Wagner and Ukraine for prisoner exchange, maybe we made a deal with Prigogine? He seems much less nutty than everybody else on the other side.

I hope not.

Because he is just as insane and barbaric and he is unhappy only because Ukraine still exists.

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