Battlefront.com Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Haiduk said: Mashovets supposes, that it's a matter with what forces and where Russians conducted these counter-attacks. If near Pyatykhatky we can see different volunteer units ("Shtorm. Osetia" and BARS-32 "named after Sudoplatov" - local Zaporozhian collaborators) along with some regulars, that east from Robotyne, Russians have thrown to counter-attack one of most capable units on this front - elite VDV Spetsnaz (as assault infantry!) and unit of 35th CAA as well as units of 5th СAA, operating on V.Novosilka salient - on Mashovets opinion, troops of Eastarn Military District are more properly trained and motivated. So, likely Russians considered a section east of Robotyne more dangerous, than Pyatykhatky and harried to counter UKR push with own counter-attack, using more capable reserves and this is good sign in "reserves run" I agree that it's a good sign. As we keep noting, Russia doesn't have spare forces and it also has very few units capable of conducting (possibly) competent offensive operations. If they are committing them this early, before Ukraine has put most of its forces into action, then to me it shows Russia has little confidence that it can withstand Ukraine's deliberate attritional actions and that its defenses won't hold out. If this weren't the case, then they would just let the Ukrainians keep trying to break through and crush them as they try. Alternatively, Russia might think they actually have a chance of preempting the counter offensive's main attack. Which is... silly. Ukraine has everything staked on this counter offensive and they have massive forces in waiting. Even if Russia's counter attacks take back everything Ukraine has gained so far, what do they think Ukraine is going to do? Do nothing with all that combat power? That's just nuts. So crazy that I don't think even the Russians think this is a possibility. So I'm going to stick with Russia doesn't have confidence in its defenses and is trying to degrade Ukraine and stall the main counter offensive as long as possible. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Ah crap…I had plans for this summer. And was so close to retirement. I don’t think my knees can take a third war. At least you can drive around most of Ukraine. That probably isn't much compensation. On the plus side, if there is a plus side, this all probably means that Putin actually understands he is losing. On the hopeful side he may come out with a negotiating position that makes a little bit of sense if he decides against making this a much bigger war. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Ah crap…I had plans for this summer. And was so close to retirement. I don’t think my knees can take a third war. To me this seems the Russian action at ZNPP is preparing for scorched earth. ISW's report points out how much extremely long term damage this will do to the territories they currently occupy. Not to mention its forces occupying it. But this misses the point. I've been saying for months now that there's nothing (above the tactical level) that Ukraine has regained that Russia has retaken. Further, there's nothing (above the tactical level) that Russia seems capable of taking in the Donbas no matter how hard it tries. I have also pointed out that in the south Russia may soon face a predetermined scenario where the options are retreat or face annihilation. If the knuckle draggers in the Kremlin have put these things together they might realize that there's a better than slight chance they'll lose all of Kherson and Zaporozhia Oblasts to Ukraine by the time the campaign season is over and NEVER get them back. So if they are NEVER going to get this territory back, why let Ukraine have it? It's logical and totally in keeping with Russian theory and practice in this war so far. The West needs to take it seriously. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, kevinkin said: Yep, it's would be about funding for the long run. But if the interests of NATO are threatened, emergency action could be taken without signing legislation. For example, we detect the imminent release of radioactivity from the plant that might somehow affect Poland. A radioactive release is going to affect pretty much every European NATO country, so any one of them could call for an Article 4 which would no doubt lead to Article 5. It only takes one to invoke, and there would be a lot more than one calling for it. The other thing that needs to happen is get f'n Xi and Modi to use their back channels with the Kremlin and media reach to make it clear that if Russia does this they will be fighting NATO alone. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: There was just an article on this sort of thing in Washington Post. It detailed (amongst other things) radioactive plutonium trapped in sedimentary layers at the bottom of a Canadian lake in Ontario from the 1950s nuclear tests in the Pacific. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/anthropocene-geologic-time-crawford-lake/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&itid=mr_1&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3a5a768%2F6491ce2290e29b5cbf4382fb%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F13%2F72%2F6491ce2290e29b5cbf4382fb So yeah, it's time to make sure Putin has a very clearly defined red line not to cross. Steve Crawford Lake, been there many times -it is a local conservation area. Edited June 23, 2023 by chris talpas Reduced size of quoted material for relevance 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Ref ZNPP, all you have to do is imagine what a vindictive, bigoted, 8 decades old sociopath would do, with zero possibility of personal repurcussions. The prevailing winds (prevailing, not permanent) blow S/SE, ie towards Russia but across Russian controlled Ukraine, and likely not towards Central/Western Europe. At least initially if timed right, and afterwards WTFC. So if you're a total ****bag and you want to insta-scorched-earth an entire region you've conquered but are about to lose - and you don't care about your own regions that will be affected (because Propaganda) - well, you can't do much better than blowing the ZNPP. The bastards will do it out of pure spitefulness, blame Ukraine and scream that the war should end because Now Things Have Gone Too Far. Russian Army losses are irrelevant to Putin, (there's always more zombies) and ZSU would find it difficult to operate in the affected areas. ZSU offensive stalled/stopped = Win Ukraine loses entire SE as a viable economic region = Win NATO "can't" claim a nuclear attack = win (and China will agree, so no pressure from there, = win) Russian Army is "undefeated" = Win Russian Army is weakened politically = win And Russian Army losses, or the Donbass population, literally don't matter to him. Time this with a Trump/DeSantis win in November and you've got the makings of a geopolitical kidney punch to Ukraine, possibly leading to Zelenskys luster in elections. I'm not seeing many negatives for Pootler. He just needs the Russian army to retain control of the ZNPP, which is very likely, even if isolated. Everything else is losable and he, in his mind, will still win. Edited June 23, 2023 by Kinophile 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: The other thing that needs to happen is get f'n Xi and Modi to use their back channels with the Kremlin and media reach to make it clear that if Russia does this they will be fighting NATO alone. This could have happened already. We all know about Russian bluster. To me its more important to signal western systems will keep flowing to defend the inevitable gains Ukraine makes this summer and fall even if they fall short of a compete liberation. The precious UA soldier needs to be used wisely. Bullets not Bodies. That's what I see happening on the ground. Multiple economy of force probes to train the new UA and provide enough success to kept DC in the game. I don't see how Ukraine can play it any better given the cards dealt. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 We need to escalate back. Basically tell Putin Ukraine gets a dozen missiles with nukes to use if anything fishy happens at ZNPP. Unless we really up the ante, there’s no downside for Putin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: We need to escalate back. Basically tell Putin Ukraine gets a dozen missiles with nukes to use if anything fishy happens at ZNPP. Unless we really up the ante, there’s no downside for Putin. Sure sure. Yup... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 55 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: We need to escalate back. Basically tell Putin Ukraine gets a dozen missiles with nukes to use if anything fishy happens at ZNPP. Unless we really up the ante, there’s no downside for Putin. I thought of this too, but only with a slight bit of humor to it: "Putin, you do anything with nukes on Ukrainian soil Ukrainians might get angry. They might even nuke you in return! Like you said back in 2014, you can get anything off of eBay these days." More seriously, if Russia deliberately irradiates 1/3rd of Ukraine (and a huge chunk of the world's wheat supply), I think Russia better withdraw all of its forces and permanently station them around all of Russia's NPPs. I would not rule out Ukraine doing a plausible denial attack on one of them in retaliation. Ukrainians have determination, patience, skills, and very long memories. Not that Putin cares about any of this. He is certainly going down the Götterdämmerung path. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 If Putin thinks he gets away with it he will nuke Europe tomorrow. But the Red Square possibly becomes the Black Hole. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 It is time for one last all channel push to convince the people around Putin that killing him has become a lower risk option than not killing him. Because if they blow that plant several hundred names are going on a list, and they are going to hunted until the end of their days. And that is if Moscow DOESN'T wind up as a crater. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) If The_Capt gets deployed we need to pass the hat to get him every ultralight carbon fiber and titanium piece of gear there is. It is the least we can do for a free staff college education. Edit: We didn't even have to take the class on logistics forms... Edited June 23, 2023 by dan/california 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Well hopefully deployed The_Capt will have enough time on the evenings for that book writing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grossman Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 1 hour ago, dan/california said: It is time for one last all channel push to convince the people around Putin that killing him has become a lower risk option than not killing him. Because if they blow that plant several hundred names are going on a list, and they are going to hunted until the end of their days. And that is if Moscow DOESN'T wind up as a crater. Yes. There is a public debate in Russia on the use of nuclear weapons, which is surprising. It means in my mind that forces not in agreement with Putin have insisted it be public. Those same forces may attempt "Valkyrie" in the coming months when things deteriorate at the front, and particularly if Putin is intent on the use of nuclear weapons. That would be a decisive moment for the Russians opposed to Putin. The new "government" may try to sue for peace. However as we have learnt a WW2 solution worked, when a WW1 solution didn't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 I do not have time yet to prepare maps, so here is quick update from today's Mashovets (please look at my old maps from Berdyansk direction) Expect retreat of 395 MRR from 127 MRD from Rivnopil-Pryutne line toward Pryutne-Staromayrske line because AFU most likely already cut road to Staromayrske There are information that AFY reached Nort-East outskirts of Staromayrske itself and Nothenr outskirts of Urozhaine RU command is unlikely to improve situation transferring additional forces because AFU continue to push from other side as well (toward Kermenchik from Staromayorske-Novodonetsk line) and because of "fire influence" of AFU 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 In the direction of Tokmak, the RU counterattack to stop the AFU assault of Robotne failed. Robotne's situation continues to deteriorate (for RU command). Interestingly, Mashovets believes that AFU may substantially increase the speed of advance, catching RU off guard and causing it to fail to deploy final reserves in time to face it. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Result of this night strike. 13 launched from 4 Tu-95, 13 shot down. Most of missiles were intercepted over Khmelnytskyi obblast. Probably Russians tried to hit Starokostiantyniv airfield, the base of Su-24, carriers of SS. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) https://newlinesmag.com/argument/ukraine-recruits-women-soldiers-why-doesnt-russia/ Interesting discussion of gender in both societies, relative to the war and military service. Quote One simple fact — that Ukraine is willing to rely on women to contribute to its national defense while Russia is not — demonstrates that Ukraine and Russia want to be seen as two very different countries. Quote Russian recruitment campaigns ignore women entirely and call upon men to join the military to gain their masculine credentials. Ukrainian military recruitment campaigns depict the armed forces as a collection of ordinary citizens, both men and women, who come together to defend their country. Ukrainian military recruitment materials imply that the values of civilian society shape the armed forces, rather than the reverse. Quote The absence of women soldiers among the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine is an important symbol of Moscow’s reputation as a bastion of traditional values, and reflects the social order that Putin seeks to impose on Ukrainians. The presence of women soldiers among the Ukrainian troops fighting to defend their country against Russia’s invasion is an important symbol of the nature of the postwar society that Ukraine’s ordinary citizens, both men and women, will build together. Edited June 23, 2023 by Kinophile 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Grigb said: In the direction of Tokmak, the RU counterattack to stop the AFU assault of Robotne failed. Robotne's situation continues to deteriorate (for RU command). Interestingly, Mashovets believes that AFU may substantially increase the speed of advance, catching RU off guard and causing it to fail to deploy final reserves in time to face it. Yes it was a good night! 44 Arty systems. Edited June 23, 2023 by DesertFox 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Robotyne area - Tokmak axis 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 9 hours ago, danfrodo said: So we are seeing RU attacking relatively small UKR penetrations w reserves -- seems kinda crazy. Were they given "not one step back" orders from Herr Putler-Stalin? It's easy to say "no one is that dumb" but how then does one explain Bakhmut and Vuledar, where the same forces that would now be in the trenches are instead underground, plus the destroyed equipment and wasted ordnance. In this war, the usual pattern from both sides was repeated attacks and counterattacks over the same ground and I think RUS just got used to denying any territorial progress to the UKR. Maneouver defence is not something they tried and they just may be afraid to start trying it for the first time in the face of the enemy's biggest offensive of the war. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) South of Velyka Novosilka, along the Mokri Yaly river Edited June 23, 2023 by DesertFox 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 More Prigozhin stuff 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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