How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

opinion piece but interesting perspective.

Russia’s transformation into a wholly-owned subsidiary of China is now complete (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Only two decades ago, Russia was one of the so-called BRICs – made up of Brazil, Russia, India and China – that fund managers and investment bankers were convinced would dominate the first half of the 21st century.

The performance of the other three countries may have been mixed, to put it mildly, but they have all grown and developed, and China and India, whatever their flaws, are both vastly wealthier than they were twenty years ago.

By contrast Putin’s Russia has been a dismal failure.

In reality, it does not make much difference any more what the outcome of the war is.

Even if there is a negotiated settlement with Ukraine, Russia no longer has any hope of getting back to normal in the near future. Once assets are taken without compensation, no one will ever want to invest in the country soon, and even if they did their shareholders may not allow them.

There is little chance, either, that Russia will produce any significant companies of its own, outside of the energy and minerals sectors.

There is only one fate that awaits it.

Russia will become an exploit for the Chinese economy, and since Beijing will be the only buyer for its raw materials it won’t even get a very good price.

It will be dirt-poor, chaotic, and under-developed – think Argentina, but with a rubbish football team and lots of snow. It is a cruel outcome, but exactly what Putin has now condemned his country to.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by sburke

[Harmon Rabb]

Never seen a HMMWV like that before.

[Haiduk]

First day after destroying of the dam. SOF operators of 73rd Maritime Special Operation Center resque Russian Shtorm-Z convict fighters, who tried to save their lives on the trees. During operation RIBs of UKR soldiers were shelled with rifles and were forced to sail back. During interrogation, Russians even couldn't say their unit, just told "we were taken from correctional colonies"  

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Those guys serving in the 3rd separate assault brigade are definitely not camera-shy. Lots of videos coming from them.

Units, which have origins from volunteer formations understand importance of media PR and feedback. More videos, more popularity, more potential recruits (new or from other units), more donations. Most of cadre units also try in PR, but mostly on official FB pages, but because most of responsible people for this work are just apoinnted by HQs, they often do this work very formally and they don't give enough feedback. Some active units or soldiers inside theese units have own Telegram, Twitter or TIk-Tok channels and upload different videos, but only in several units this work is making on cinematographic level, like in 3rd brigade, K-2, Azov and sometime in other brigades.

[Haiduk]

Russians enlisted to VDV soldiers of unknown nation %) Syrians? Nepalian Gurkhas? Bangladesh? India? On the video allegedly Gurhas in training center in Belarus.

One guy with obviously Indian name Sakh Anit Kumar from 217th VDV regiment. Contract signed on May 16 2023 for one year. 

 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.radio4.dk/nyheder/danmark-klar-til-at-donere-kampfly-til-ukraine-siger-fungerende-forsvarsminister/
DENMARK READY TO DONATE COMBAT AIRCRAFT TO UKRAINE - SAYS ACTING DEFENSE MINISTER

Quote

but today acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen says that Denmark will support donating fighter jets to Ukraine. He does so in his speech at the Folkemødet on Bornholm. But that will only happen with the support of the USA, which produces the F16 planes.

- I would like to say that I cannot imagine that we do not support. Ukraine needs planes. More than ever if they are to win their match. This also applies to Danish F-16 fighter jets, says Troels Lund Poulsen in his speech.

 

[Haiduk]

As you know, yesterday during a visit of African delegation of seven presidents, Russians conducted combined missile strike on Kyiv. During this strike delegation was in Bucha and sat in the shelter. 

Interesting how Russian propaganda and media several times changes shoes in flight

Air raid alarm in Ukraine - Russian TGs:

Mass attack. Combo of cruise and ballistic missiles, if we will trust to monitoring channels. I think, that today is the same day, when we decided that no more visitors to Ukriane! 

  

Suddenly, they find out this is African "peace initiative" delegation, which next day will meet Putin. Rhetoric  changes itself - this is staged attack to show Africans how Russians are bad and what they are murderers!

Very stupd statement of SAR press-secreter only fed the flame of Russian conspiracy. This guy was very surprised, that during or after air raid on the steets of Kyiv there are many people and he didn't heard any explosions

Today's official Russian MoD statement issued by RIA Novosti: "In Friday Russian Federation has conducted a strike at one of decision making center of AFU with precision long range maritime- and aerial-based weapons. The objectives are completed, the target was hit"

UKR AD report

6 Kalibrs, 6 Kinzhals were shot down (96th AD brigade thr best!) on approaches to Kyiv. We heard only several sistant explosions. Though, interesting, that weren't reports aboput MiG-31K take off, Kinzhal carriers. There were several photos of missile trails in Brinask oblast raising from the ground, so maybe it could be Iskander-M, but if Russian MoD now says about "aerial-based missiles", so this were Kinzhals, because no Tu-95 were in the air in this time  

Alas, fragments of missiles destroyed three private houses in Vyshhorod district (north from Kyiv) and fell down on small truck on the road. Seven civilains were injured.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Fight in Kreminna forest

 

[_Morpheus_]

Another video from K2 - 54th Mechanized Brigade.
Looks like the distance between russians and Ukrainian position less than 100 meters and artillery is really precise. 

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[sburke]

To conceal significant losses, invaders sending only injured officers to Russia for treatment – General Staff (yahoo.com)

The Russian invasion forces’ command has now established a new procedure for treating injured Russian servicemen, under which only officers are eligible for evacuation to Russia, the General Staff said.

Under Russian army rules, sergeants and enlisted personnel, regardless of the severity or complexity of their injuries, are to be treated only in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the General Staff said.

[sburke]

Regarding the earlier posts about reported Russian dead, here is a good reason to stick to confirmed cases - analyzing what and who those dead represent.  It isn't surprising news, but it is always good to know what the enemy force consists of.

Russia notices portrayal of its invaders changed since beginning of war (yahoo.com)

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Having confirmed over 25,000 burials of Russian soldiers killed since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the BBC has drawn up a portrait of the "average Russian soldier at the front".

Whereas in the first three months of the war, a typical casualty was a professional contract soldier in his twenties, a regular Russian trooper killed in Ukraine in recent months has been a 34-year-old convict sent to the front from a penal colony.

The BBC cites two examples: Sergeant Nikita Loburets, 21, a Russian special forces unit commander, was killed near Kharkiv on 20 May 2022, and Alexander Zubkov, 34, who was sentenced to 9 years for attempted drug trafficking, joined the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) and was killed near the city of Bakhmut in 2023.

While Loburets was a relatively promising contract soldier, Zubkov was convicted twice. The latter went to Ukraine in November 2022, hoping to be released and receive a salary of RUB 100,000 [roughly US$1,190] a month but was killed five months later near Bakhmut. Zubkov was buried on 28 April in Severodvinsk, Russia.

 

 

[Grigb]

13 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Regarding the morale of the Russian army, here is an unverified interview with a Russian officer that I still feel is credible. The interview (or rather phone conversation) is a reaction from an officer to a previous piece that included statements from other RU officers who criticized Putin's speech during meetings with RU Nat reporters.

It is lengthy, but I believe it is necessary to transcribe it in its whole in order to convey an impression of the real RU army morale and mentality now. 

Quote

— I saw your conversation with two of our men. Concerning Puty's [Putin's] meeting with craptards. They speak the truth, however the text as a whole is incorrect...

— Why?

— Because you read that and believe that all officers in the Soviet army [allusion to Soviet fetishism in the RU army] are smart, tell the truth, and understand everything. If we're all so wise here and do not give a f*ck about Puty, why are we f*cking sowing death here for the second year in a row like the horsemen of the Apocalypse? We would have long since turned around the units entrusted to us, politically enlighten our faithful soldiers, and gone to Moscow to crush the lice.

— There has been a lot of chatter from you [guys] about preparing to go for it, but it appears that you are only preparing and not going.

— Because bulsh*ting is easy, doing is hard. It's terrifying, cyka! Why are you telling me this - I called you to explain it (laughs).

— Ok, explain

— How many of us are still speaking to you? Those who are similar to me? the colonel, the captain? How many of those who with naked *** really in combat with "collective West"?

— Those who fight against NATO roughly one-third [remains from old time]. And most of them are in rear echelons. Combat men, those who supported the "Russian World," virtually all left; we are traitors in their eyes.

— That's why, after reading you, you could think we're all good guys here. We, on the other hand, are not. The brains of the some people have been totally brainwashed. Someone does not even have a brain, to the extend it is a pity to use soap to brainwash them. In my brigade, I have two normal men who haven't lost how to think. There are roughly 10 more soldiers who all serve me. The remainder are like sheep in a herd, walking about with tags and believing that we are protecting Russia.

— With what tags?

— With these (St. George's) ribbons. [colored stripes historically associated in RU with St. George. After 2014 became RU Nat imperial sign]

Moms send [to the boys], and they tie them around their wrists, belts, and legs. A type of amulet that shields against Nazi bullets. During the winter, our politruk distributed these ribbons to the boys. He brought a crapload of them, whole bag, a childish f*ggot. Gave away the entire bag. Later, he was killed by a mortar shell.

— Listen, not everyone believes in Defense of Russia [crap]. We see a lot of [people] go only for the money...

— Yeah. Beggars from all across the Union flocked to [our] BAM [Baikal-Amur Mainline] or Virgin Land [renowned Soviet State stupid ventures with large payoffs for participation]. Those who desired a long ruble. Most of them have no idea what to do and will only moan and drink if they find it. Some capable mobiks exist, those who have learnt to fight a bit. But here, a guy creates a fairy story for himself, claiming that he did not come for money, but for a noble and pure cause. Man is a superstitious and fearful creature. He must make an apology to God that he is not only interested in money, but also in preserving the Russian-speaking World. He'll make up this nonsense, then start believing in it. Snitches have always been punished in the army, but now it is the standard to inform on a comrade or superior. I'm talking to you right now, but if my lads hear, there will undoubtedly be a paper [on me] later, and [I will face] the "debriefing."

— But snitching is risky; the snitch will almost certainly be killed in the first combat...

— You understand that, as do our elder [experienced] guys, but mobiks do not. Yes, I was slightly exaggerating earlier. Although there are many of them, this is still not a common occurrence. The common consensus is that everyone is scared. So they desire money and are scared. Because they may be killed here, and because you can't leave. Everyone is keeping quiet. Everyone silently endures hardships, so as not to say too much... And no one here criticizes Puty. Only lifers are allowed to curse plywood [marshal] (Shoigu), our generals, the war, or the whole Soviet army.

— So, what are you trying to communicate to me? Is it OK for me to ask the ideological [guy] to remark on the meeting with military "reporters"? I asked those I could reach.

— No, not at all. I see here that we don't have an officer corps or a community here. Those who oppose it remain mute; we only discuss it with trustworthy and longtime friends. Those who came for money are likewise mute; they don't care for Russian ideals or Great Russia. Those who f*ckturds [loyalists] don't give numerous speeches either. Only when they gather in their own sect meeting.

I'd like to point out that our army and society have devolved into a completely lethargic herd. Not able to do anything. But it's also quite evil at the same time. They constantly steal everything that is not nailed down in the army, and what is nailed down is stolen with nails. However, in Chechnya [the Chechen era for the Russian army is comparable to the Vietnam era for the US army], they did not steal from their own colleagues. Now this is the norm. They'll pull everything away if you nap a little. You catch such a man, beat the heck out of him, and then you question him what you're doing. Do you know how he responds? "It just happened." Now everything in our lives is "just happens by t itself", as if everyone has ceased to be people responsible for their actions. It happens all by itself in their lives. The war itself began, somehow, I got into the army, everything is just happing by itself somehow.

You look after normal soldiers like it is your children because the others are stumps with vacant eyes. They eat, sh*t, sleep, and serve in some capacity. I'm used to knowing that in a fighting unit, you have to sense what someone is thinking and who is capable of what. You talk to soldiers. It's impossible to talk to these folks. They gaze at you with their fishy eyes, sniff, and you can only receive yes or no answers from them. They're like this... simply waiting for it all to be over. They don't even think. 

[Fun fact: I first heard of such men in the late 1980s (draftees from the Soviet army who served in Afghanistan or at distant bases) and the mid 1990s (draftees during the First Chechen War.] 

You tell them that they are f*cking not going home at the end of the contract. Nobody will let them go till the war is over. Neither I nor our command will let them go; they'll just assign you to another unit to serve in. He'll look at you and say, "This is not according to the law." It appears that it never occurred to him that the entire country has never followed the law. They assume that they will endure three or six months, earn money, and return home to their wives. By the way, they still talk as though they're going home. Who will do what, fix something or purchase a car. One man from a village in the N-th region wants to save up for the rental of an excavator, confident that he would make a lot of money.

That is what we must talk about. e must show it. You're mistaken if you believe everyone here understands everything.

— I don't think so. And we must show it. So, how about you? What are your plans for yourself?

— What can I do? I can only keep fighting till they kill me. Or I'll drink vodka and tell you how we, Russian officers, are going to remove Puty and build an honest country. When I am sober again, I will continue to fight again.

— Isn't it time to make a change? Transition may be not to AFU but to the Russian formations

— I'll be a prisoner in the AFU and will return here on exchange. Or go to prison, first in Ukraine, then in our country. And what will I do in these formations? Run around the Bryansk region post office recording a video?

— Soon there will be regular combat units...

— And what will I tell my wife? Darling, I went to normal combat unit; I'll return home on a tank in ten years; wait for a hero?

— Your wife may go to a third country before you go; you will go, and she will come to you.

— If I tell her that, I'll right away flee our flat. She has never traveled further than Kaliningrad. She doesn't even have a passport for foreign travel.

— What does she think [about the whole situation]?

— That I must resign from the army. But I don't want to resign because where will I find job? She advises writing a request to transfer to another unit, getting a job as an instructor, persuading the unit commander, and offering a bribe if necessary.

— What does she say about the war?

— Nothing; she is convinced that all of the officers' wives are being watched by special officers, that her phone is being tapped, and that if she says anything [suspect], she will be shackled and sent to Siberia. She has been talking with similar female officers and has developed ridiculous phobias. At the same time, she is relieved that the mortgage has been paid off and is planning a vegetable garden. She's typical, a little goofy, but sweet.

— It's not about her; do you realize you'll be killed here sooner or later with such army management?

— Of course. To be honest, I'm terrified to do anything. I realize what is required, yet I find excuses to put it off till later. I can't leave my men here, I tell myself. I know it would have been better for them if the entire unit could have crossed the zero [frontline] and ended up on the other side. In addition, I have five Ukrainian-born men serving alongside me. They were born in the Ukraine but grew up in Russia. But I'm also terrified of what their reaction will be. I'm worried about what will happen at home without me. I'm too scared to tell my wife about it. I was at home for a week over the winter and started chatting to her; she closed my lips and said, "Don't even think about it."

— What do the other officers in your unit who hold the same view think?

— We're all in the same boat here: f*ck it. We had a conversation. There is a young man who is single, has no parents, no wife, and no children. He can. But he also puts it off. We're all waiting for something to happen here. We are aware that things will worsen, but we do nothing. [Just keep fighting].

— Do you want to win?

— Against whom? Ukraine? I don't. Sectarians want to do so. I have no enemies here. I'm battling for my life and the lives of my men. Not to win. To win, I fought in Chechnya. I was young at the time. I arrived to Ukraine with this crowd, the Ukrainian lads want to kill me. If I were a Ukrainian, I would want to kill me. On June 8, we discussed it with the guys in our circle. It would be better if we had been born here. Then we'd be respected and loved, and we'd know why we're dying.

— You refer to them as Ukrainian lads [he used Khloptsi - UKR for guys/lads], but what about "Ukri", "Nazis", "Germans", and "pigs"? You don't say so, but it's widely used, right?

— It is. We have those who refer to them as Germans, Ukri, but more often, Khohols. In my company the soldiers called them lads, and it stuck somehow. There are individuals who fight with malice, but they are few and far between. All of this stench about "Banderites" occurs only in rear areas. Everyone who has fought for three months and has a brain bigger than walnut abandon it at once. Khohol, lads, and Ukri. The shorter the length, the more convenient. We are not in school to make up lengthy curse words. The enemy must be designated. The shorter the length, the more convenient.

— What are your thoughts on [Putin's] meeting with "military reporters"?

— The same as other to guys. I learned about it from your article. It can be seen that our Puty does not get what is happening at all. This is also evident here by the orders that we receive. When the army does not have a goal, then all the work begins to be divided into small tactical tasks creating routine, which each unit creates for itself, down to individual squad. You do not give us big goals, we will start doing it in a small way. Dig a hole here, bury it here. Lay mines on the approaches to our positions, destroy the mortar that shot at you, put your own so as to fight back if they attack. Get some ammunition. Explain to the gunners how to adjust their fire to avoid hitting you. Discuss the same with the tankers. This is what we do every day to keep from going nuts. A war like that cannot be won. As I already stated, the people are here for money and out of fear, not for victory. Sectarians do not count. Our higher ranks will not end this conflict, and the lower ranks, including ourselves, do not want to or will not do anything. All hope appears to be on the [UKR] lads (laughter).

— So, as I said, you can still try to replace Puty. Bring your soldiers who will be ready. You have a lot of experience, you will train recruits, they are there, most of them are civilians, true, but there are. And then, as you predicted, you'll return in a tank, but not in ten years, but sooner. So, at the very least, it will be apparent why you are taking risks and what you are attempting to achieve.

— I'll consider it. It's always better to do anything when you know why you're doing it. But, cyka, it's terrifying. More terrifying than battle. Because everything happens on its own in battle, and here you have to make a choice, a decision, and then you ill not be able put the stuffing back. But don't agitate me here. I wanted to inform you that, at least officially, the bulk of the army is silent and committed to the ideas of Lenin-Stalin-Putin. And our army will not be the revolution's driving force. And I'll consider what to do with myself.

 

[Jr Buck Private]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

They have to. If they don't stop AFU at Berkhievka, Soledar will be next. And AFAIR, Kleshiivka is the last vital stronghold guarding RU communication routes south of Bakhmut. The brilliance of UKR offensive plans is RU must respond by thickening the line and counter-attacking brining reserves to UKR arty party.

I do not care whether AFU encircles Bakhmut or not. What is important though the more RU bring troops to stabilize Bakhmut the more will die and the less will be elsewhere to defend against main UKR strike. 

 

Keeping the pressure on Bakhmut will pay huge dividends even if they don't capture it.   The Russians invested way too much to lose it now.  That will be a huge pie in the face for their MOD, probably cause massive political problems back home.   Whatever strategically they should invest there you just know the Russians will triple it to avoid potential humiliation.        

[cesmonkey]

Reportedly, another attack underway south of Orikhiv
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/47484
 

Quote

Infantry and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are rolling in waves on our line of defense near Orekhov
Armored groups and company tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the cover of artillery are approaching the positions of our steel regiments
MLRS, howitzers, mortars, ATGMs are working against the enemy.
The enemy suffers losses from the fire, but is approaching firing towards our trenches.
Our guys thank everyone for believing in them and supporting them.

https://t.me/wargonzo/13323

Quote

2:00
️Video️How the enemy behaves in the Orekhovskoye direction️

The enemy is trying to gradually advance through the positions, trying to take Rabotino into a semicircle.

Despite the fact that the intensity of enemy artillery has decreased compared to when the offensive was underway, our fighters are well aware that this is temporary.

A fighter from the "Nemets" - "Shanghai" group, who was directly involved in repelling the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told the project about the current situation in the Orekhov-Rabotino direction.

 

[DesertFox]

Just in case you missed it:

 

Original article:

https://archive.is/F1mbq

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, Sojourner said:

I thought that too until a couple of days ago when I looked it up.

"There is little practical difference between a bill and a joint resolution. Both are subject to the same procedure, except for a joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution."

There are also Concurrent and Simple resolutions which are pretty much just feel-good fluff.

https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained/the-legislative-process/bills-resolutions

 

Thank you very much for this. I appreciate you digging into it. My reference was to a “simple” resolution. I don’t remember any Joint Resolutions being proposed since the Joint Resolution for an Equal Rights Amendment that failed Ratification by the States due to a time limit imposed for the Ratification. For those who don’t realize the “glacier like” speed at which our government can act, the latest Amendment, the 28th Amendment was proposed by James Madison on Sept. 25, 1789, and, Ratified May 7, 1992. It affected Congressional Pay restrictions. Go figure.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Just in case you missed it:

 

Original article:

https://archive.is/F1mbq

Burn the orcs, burn every last one of them.

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Original article:

https://archive.is/F1mbq

 

I would strongly recommend reading it, just depraved **** occurring to civilians, POWs in Russian custody.

[dan/california]

A lot of good stuff on GeoConfirmed today, worth wandering over there.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

I would strongly recommend reading it, just depraved **** occurring to civilians, POWs in Russian custody.

This needs to be treated the way Mossad treated the people who ran the death camps. The people who run these camps need to hunted like diseased vermin for the rest of their lives. 

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This needs to be treated the way Mossad treated the people who ran the death camps. The people who run these camps need to hunted like diseased vermin for the rest of their lives. 

They will meet their maker. I am pretty sure of this...

[Harmon Rabb]

Can't help but feel that both the communists and the Russian nobility of the early 20th century, would be a little confused by this picture.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Grigb]

And a few more maps. I finally added the approximate position of RU field fortifications based on to this map.

Red line denoted fortifications. Yellow line denotes 10 km (for artillery discussions)

There are two lines of fortifications here. So, I did not put the yellow line to avoid confusion. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Guardian article. The drone operator interviewed says the offensive is going better than territorial gains would suggest, but acknowledges that Russian helicopters are a problem.

________

... despite the gradual progress so far, the group argue it is going better than the slow rate of village capture might suggest.

“Maybe it is not very obvious because we are not moving very fast, but we destroy equipment, tanks, everything,” says Spielberg.

Gennadiy also describes determined opponents, notably using some weapons for which his brigade had no effective counter. “There are constant attacks from helicopters, three or four times a day,” he says, describing the Russians’ deadly use of Ka-52 attack craft in and around the frontline, and admitting they are difficult to shoot down from the ground, eluding his own efforts on the battlefield.

_______

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/17/21st-century-warfare-ukraine-counteroffensive-frontline

[Harmon Rabb]