How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I remember the first gulf war, where marines were practicing an amphibious assault that was filmed by the media, all just deceive of course.   I figured the USA would at least pledge a bunch of assault type boats in an aid package just to keep the Russians honest down south.   I think a massive "Bridge Too Far" river assault is the last thing on the Russian's worry list.   It definitely would be a shocker.   Does everybody think a massive river assault is completely unreasonable, even after the Russians moved some of their troops north east after the damn break?     

I so want the UA to do an assault water x-ing op south of Kherson.  There are a lot of pluses to this op - bold and dramatic for international audience not being the least of them.  However, it is the pre-conditions that remain the rub.  The UA would need local air superiority, or at least total denial - including UAS, which is really hard.  They would need to effectively silence the guns on the RA side. And then there are c-moves which is a campaign of deep strike.  Finally the ISR problem, they would need to make that sector basically “go dark” for RA ISR. 

If they could pull it off it would be epic and likely collapse the entire Kherson front and maybe even roll up the RA in the centre.  But it is a very tall ask, maybe outside the envelope of the UA…but a boy can dream.

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

UKR Uragan :

 

Where can I get a license plate like that?

[Vet 0369]

On 6/15/2023 at 7:06 PM, kevinkin said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-counteroffensive-zelenskyy-interview-russia-lose-war-rcna89022

I think Zelensky should avoid US politics for the time being. And dodge when asked to weigh in.

Zelenskyy is a politician, but I’d judge him to be smarter than and  more able to avoid putting  his foot in his mouth than about 90% of Western politicians and about 99.99% of posters on this forum.

[Vet 0369]

On 6/15/2023 at 7:25 PM, Artkin said:

I didn't even know states had that, that's something you don't learn in high school lol.

If your High School is in the U.S. that could be an indication of why the voting public is so ignorant of how the U.S. institutions work.

[Fenris]

Thread with clips etc suggesting russia has gathered some volunteers from Nepal and places in that region.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1669597960747773952

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

There was F-16 pilot funding passed 6 months ago. The government chose newer to use it

Never happened. Only the House passed it, or tried to. Never came up in the Senate. So, no money, and no further action on it.

[Beleg85]

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

I was counting more on them being corpses.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Zelenskyy is a politician, but I’d judge him to be smarter than and  more able to avoid putting  his foot in his mouth than about 90% of Western politicians and about 99.99% of posters on this forum.

He hasn't put his foot in his mouth. But the more he weighs into US politics the chance of a misunderstood statement increases. More risk than reward. Just hold serve and let the the back channels work the details as the offensive unfolds. Ukraine can't afford unforced errors and any arena. 

[Vet 0369]

10 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Paul Massaro helping people keep track of all the bills related to this war.

Feel free to look them up using this resource Congress.gov

Unfortunately, since “most” U.S. school systems no longer have the Civics classes that were required during my education in the 1950s and 1960s, most people don’t realize that an H. Res or an S. Res mean absolutely nothing. A Resolution (Res) is nothing more than that body, House or Senate expressing an “opinion.” E.g. “We hereby resolve that the sun AND the moon rise in the east!”

Only an HR or SR have the capability to become a “Bill,” that when signed by the President becomes an ”Act,” which is a “Law.”

[dan/california]

All true, but any Congress/Senate vote in support of Ukraine is good, doubly so if there is large scale bipartisan support.

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

If your High School is in the U.S. that could be an indication of why the voting public is so ignorant of how the U.S. institutions work.

Sure is, if I was told it wasn't enough. Typically I remember things the first time around. Education in my state varies. Schools closer to Manhattan can be extremely competitive but in the suburbs it's more lax. 

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Unfortunately, since “most” U.S. school systems no longer have the Civics classes that were required during my education in the 1950s and 1960s, most people don’t realize that an H. Res or an S. Res mean absolutely nothing. A Resolution (Res) is nothing more than that body, House or Senate expressing an “opinion.” E.g. “We hereby resolve that the sun AND the moon rise in the east!”

Only an HR or SR have the capability to become a “Bill,” that when signed by the President becomes an ”Act,” which is a “Law.”

I thought that too until a couple of days ago when I looked it up.

"There is little practical difference between a bill and a joint resolution. Both are subject to the same procedure, except for a joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution."

There are also Concurrent and Simple resolutions which are pretty much just feel-good fluff.

https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained/the-legislative-process/bills-resolutions

 

[kevinkin]

From the war zone:

But to give Ukraine its best fighting chance, Milley said that tens of thousands of its troops have been trained by the U.S. and partners.

“More than 6,000 Ukrainians are being trained right now at 40 different training locations, training locations, in 65 courses in 33 nations on three continents. That is all happening right now. Today,.”

This begs the question: Is this the correct way to train troops for battle? I bet he is bean counting and the training is not that dispersed at all. Given all the donated equipment of various types, it would mean an armed force starting to be based on the Golden Coral concept. 33 nations is great, but a more concentrated effort is probably more efficient. You know, don't send a gift, send a gift card. 

[dan/california]

Not great for the vehicle, but perhaps far better than the alternative.

 

[Grigb]

UKR Kovalenko (colleague of Mashovets) post to get a feel of the situation at Bakhmut

Quote

Bakhmut... June 16, 23

While all attention is focused on the south, with all information coming from there, the people began to forget about the hero city - Bakhmut, . And in vain, because there is still a highly active bridgehead with intriguing potential that is being developed.

In recent weeks, the Russian command has sent significant forces to Bakhmut to reinforce the flanks, but this has provided little global benefit. AFU continues to progress on a regular basis and is currently encircling Berkhovka and Klishiivka, with an evident aim for their liberation.

It is impossible to predict when this will occur because the process of preparing conditions for the effective squeezing out of a big gathering of RU troops is ongoing, for which artillery is primarily responsible, slowly reducing enemy men and wrecking hostile artillery.

This is the key issue for Russia's occupiers. They were able to drag to the bridgehead [necessary] mass, even forming reserves, in order to stabilize the flank collapse, but without artillery assistance, even this mass cannot maintain the line. And that is exactly what the AFU troops are doing now: they are denying the occupiers this opportunity.

The AFU goals and objectives are apparent at this point, and it is certain that Bakhmut will be encircled from the north and south in the near future, but further plans are hidden in the fog of war. It is possible to guess what will happen next [UKR push to Severodonetsk and ysichansk], but it is far more likely that everything will go in an unexpected direction.

 

[Fenris]

Recently posted footage labelled as being "Freedom of Russia" guys operating in Belgorod

 

[Grigb]

Short summary of UKR Kovalenko (colleague of Mashovets) post about RU forces at South direction

Quote

• RU grouping at Kherson, Zaporozhie and [South of ] Donetsk regions - 150 000
• Given available AFV they can form around 180 fully capable BTGrs
• Fully capable BTGR can defend 4-7 km. But given overall state of RU troops at South it can defend 1-2 km
• Zaporozhie frontline - 120km [this is according to his math, because in different place of the post he says it is 180], [South of] Donets frontline - 60km, Kherson along the river 296km. Total 476km.
• This is the reason RU is pulling troops from Kherson region
• Heavily implies that this is the reason RU exploded the dam - to free at least temporally troops to reinforce defenses in Zaporozhie
• Concludes that RU are in an untenable situation.

I would like to add that UKR do not have a particular need to rush. All they really need is not to lose it in one evening and keep enough pressure. Eventually at some point somewhere RU are going to crumble.

 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

a more concentrated effort is probably more efficient

Organisations scale for the scale they are. The Belgian army's training establishment (to take a completely random example), is scaled to the needs of the Belgian army which currently is a maneuver brigade plus various 'non-divisional' elements. Each year the Belgian army can train its new recruits, plus provide promotion and corps-courses for some mech and mot inf, some light inf, some gunners, some sappers, etc. What they can't do is suddenly scale up to training two brigades (ie, 6,000 soldiers) concurrently. They can help, they can train some of them - while maintaining their own national defence outputs. And they certainly can't provide specialist training; the Belgians, even with the best will in the world and completely ignoring their own national defence outputs, could not provide training for Patriot or Ceasar, or PzH2000, or Challenger, or Bradley, or whatever, let alone some really esoteric stuff like HOWTO corps-level operations. And the same is true of every other country: everyone lacks the capacity and knowledge to train the Ukrainians on all the things they need to learn. Including the US. But the Belgians, like everyone else, does have some spare capacity that can be gifted to the Ukrainians, especially if they pay off some domestic capability over the short term. Pooling together there is enough overall capacity to train 6,000 Ukrainians concurrently - that is no mean feat.

You're right though, in a way: it would be better if all the training could be done in one place by one training organisation (although I'll also note that even the US has training facilities for it's own use spread right across CONUS and across the world). But that's like saying it would be better if we had a cure for cancer or everyone had an EV. It's true, but not remotely realistic, and pining for that unreality doesn't advance the discussion in any useful direction.

tl;dr: Perfect is the enemy of good.

Edited June 17, 2023 by JonS

[Grigb]

Working on UKR Mashovet's today's post, however in order to avoid gaps in coverage, I am including his past postings discussing Tokmak direction that I did not have time to translate before.

Please keep in mind this is for 15-Jun

Quote

To summarize

We should not expect "significant breakthroughs" from the AFU's advance forces in the Southern Operational Zone in the foreseeable future. After all, it is obvious that the enemy troops' command will make every effort to prevent them from reaching the main line of their defense system, despite the fact that in several places, both the support lane and a portion of the enemy's first line of defense have already been breached.

In this regard, the question of reserves remains critical. However, it should be noted that the enemy command is in a more difficult situation than the Ukrainian command. He must decide whether to "unpack" his primary reserves now, for the sake of this task [stopping UKR here now], or not.

On the other hand, if they are not "unpacked" in a timely and adequate size...the AFU will definitely reach the enemy's main line of defense and therefore create conditions favorable for an operational breakthrough... Furthermore, the Ukrainian command is plainly "holding" back its major forces for this moment.

However, the Russians' strategic situation can deteriorate even further if we consider that the Ukrainian command can maneuver its operational-strategic and strategic reserves much faster (and they are more mobile) than the Russians can (due to a much shorter radius of strategic maneuver). Then the whole Russian "reserves game" will be meaningless. By the way, regarding the Kakhovskaya HPP explosion, I believe these "considerations" were among the key ones, along with others, while making the proper choice (the Russian leadership urgently needed an additional pair of more or less combat-ready brigades regiments).

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Grigb

[Grigb]

UKR Mashovets post 17 June

second post

Quote

In this sense, holding the forces and weapons of the 5th CAA as an operational reserve would be appropriate in order to "fend off" the AFU's flanking attacks in the direction of Staromlynivka village, but for some reason, the Russian command came to the conclusion, even before the start of the AFU's actions, that the 42nd MRD itself on in this direction, it simply will not hold on to a wide front when the AFU begins to put pressure on several sites at once [may because of be poor state of RU troops and fear of NATO AFVs]

And therefore, the forces and means of the 5th CAA (in the form of the 127th MRD and the 60th SMRBr) were pulled to the first echelon even before the start of all the offensive, where they got under... "big artillery greeting."..

Of course, in broad terms... The Russian command might consider the engagements north of its main line of defense in the Berdyansk direction to be "relatively successful" for itself... After all, the AFU clearly did not manage to pass the support lane and get to the enemy's main line of defense in a short period of time... but, obviously, because of the decision I mentioned above... further operations at the main line of defense RU will have to conduct, let's say, with a different set of troops (forces) than they envisioned earlier...

The presence of units from the 36th SMRBr and 336th SBrM in the second echelon of the operational formation of soldiers from the 58th and 5th CAA in the Chkalovo-Shevchenkovo area is definitely not coincidental in this context. Apparently, the Russian command is not under illusions about its ability to "minimize" the rate of advance of Ukrainian soldiers in the Berdyansk area... the AFU will reach the main line of defense sooner or later. And it will need to be manned by troops (forces) since it will not halt the AFU on its own...

It is obvious that if the forces and weapons of the 42nd, 127th MRD, and 60th SMRBr, which were damaged as a result of previous tenacious battles on the support lane, retreat back to the main line, they will be unable to hold it alone... especially when the AFU main forces launch a serious attack. 

Discussion: It appears that the UKR tactic is to make a shallow push (creating a major threat), attract RU reserves, smash them with arty, make another shallow push widening the problematic spot, attract more RU reserves, smash them with arty, rinse and repeat until RU defenses start crumbling somewhere.

In other words, RU expected that UKR would attempt rapid deep penetration and, as a result, would be forced to fight on RU terms - deep within the RU defensive belt outside of the arty and AA umbrellas against undamaged RU reserves and RU aviation. Essentially, RU was prepared to counter the Kharkiv scenario. However, these vile untermesh khokhols thwarted RU plans by conducting shallow penetrations with minor troops to fight RU reserves under UKR terms - under arty and AA cover. Best example of the Enemy gets a vote.

The best part is, I don't think RU is aware of what's going on. I looked at the mood of the RU Nats, and it is the same:

[panzermartin]

Zaporizha front, beware of the Lada Niva tank hunter. 

[Grigb]

Here's something I think is worth looking into. It is indirectly corroborated by Mashovets but still it is not a very trusted source.

It is supposed to be quotes from RU officers regarding that Putin meeting with RU unofficial propagandists. I took only relevant to us part

Quote

Putin*: "Ukraine is deploying reserves to carry out a major counteroffensive. It started on June 4 and is still going on."

Colonel of the Russian Federation's Armed Forces: "Yes, but is us who is using the reserves. We are at the east [Donetsk]. On June 5 already, a tank regiment and a motorized rifle brigade departed toward Volnovakha. Reserves are being drawn from the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, as well as Rostov and Belgorod. There is speculation that we will be sent to Zaporozhye as well. I'm not sure about the Ukrainian reserves, but ours are clearly being utilized to the fullest."

Captain of the Russian Federation's Armed Forces: "I was in the Orkihivy direction, then at Makarvika." There were no [our fresh] reserves in sight. For the first two days, it was clear that it was new units against us, not experienced, but trained somewhat. And it was enough to push us all over the front. Our reserves are nearly all forward. Our troops have a low degree of training on average, and morale is also low. We are attempting to compensate by bolstering some units with others so that they feel the elbow of a comrade and do not flee. They do not flee, but they do back away owing to the AFU's severe pressure. They [AFU] bombard us with artillery, and comrades' elbows start to cause us issues. Because of the large density of troops at zero (frontline), any bombardment results in significant casualties."

 

[poesel]

Paywalled article about two Leopard 2A6 crews:
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-die-maenner-die-mit-dem-leopard-2-in-die-schlacht-ziehen-a-a570e5db-e1fc-4ec6-9624-f6f0865a2d68

Some interesting points:

• it's his third tank for the gunner
• his first tank was destroyed near Melitopol in '22. He walked 1.5 kilometers, found an abandoned tank and drove it home!
• They haven't met Russian tanks, yet
• mainly infantry support
• 3 Leos hit mines in the first day at Zaporizhia: one lost, one could drive back on itself and one is immobilized and could not be recovered because it is blocked by a destroyed Bradley (that seems to be the one from that incident)
• Apart from Kalashnikovs there is hardly any non-western equipment at Zaporizhia
• They have high losses (compared to the time before)
• 2 tanks may have been captured by the Russians

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Discussion: It appears that the UKR tactic is to make a shallow push (creating a major threat), attract RU reserves, smash them with arty, make another shallow push widening the problematic spot, attract more RU reserves, smash them with arty, rinse and repeat until RU defenses start crumbling somewhere.

That is pretty much a description of corrosive warfare.  Add to it “continually hit support and enabler nodes as they appear” and they are setting up to create the conditions whereby the RA operational system buckles under its own weight…again.  Question is where? 

The difference this time is that it looks like the UA has built enough combat power to better exploit an RA collapse.