How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

23 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think any moral or ethical arguments against sending equipment the West has and is planning to use itself are ridiculous

I wasnt aware that the Ukrainians were having particular difficulty knocking out Russian AFVs with the munitions they already have.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

LOL.  Now there is a sig line.

Also,  hence the Balkenkreuz, IIUC. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Kinophile

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now as a thought experiment - what happens when each mine is a small kamikaze UGV and the mine field can self re-close?

Now there's a terrifying idea. What was a difficult operation becomes nearly impossible using current techniques. You may need to shift your thinking from trying to clear a lane through the minefield to trying to destroy the whole minefield. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think a better question is if those special shells are even necessary in order to penetrate Russian tanks? Do they even have any tanks left at this point, let alone any that don't belong in a museum?

Availability, and 25mm&105mm definitely needs all the help possible to penetrate.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I feel your frustration. Anyone who has played Black Sea knows APS is a literal game changer. In the game. This would be the ideal conflict to test if that is also true in reality.

But I'm not sure we can place the blame entirely on "NATO". All of the APSs presently deployed on NATO vehicles are made by Rafael and it is unlikely Israel would approve the re-export.

We send the Israelis several billion dollars a year, they could be encouraged if we set our minds to it. 

1 minute ago, JonS said:

I wasnt aware that the Ukrainians were having particular difficulty knocking out Russian AFVs with the munitions they already have.

Been a lot of discussion of the 105 mm smooth bore matching up to the later Russian stuff. I think the issue for 120mm is simply that most of the available ammo is DU, and they had to get the bleep over it.

[Harmon Rabb]

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1668653837081518080

AFU strikes Russian positions in Donetsk.

Not sure why it won't embed properly, maybe because it is marked as "potentially sensitive content"?

Edited June 13, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[kluge]

34 minutes ago, holoween said:

As scary as selfmoving mines sound they really arent a competition to normal mines.

This. The effectiveness of mines is tied to the fact it is orders of magnitude easier to place a minefield than it is to detect and remove one.

Which happens to also be the reason that small disposable platforms aren't clearing mines en masse- even the cheapest tech to perform that task is still going to cost more than a few kg of explosives tucked into a plastic container.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1668653837081518080

 

Seems like a target worth another five or ten rounds.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, holoween said:

All those things are fairly expensive and relatively difficult to build. They will also be quite large and cannot be hidden in the ground. their batteries will run dry and if they communicate you can find the entire minefield with an ew vehicle.

Didn't they say the same thing about UAVs back in the day...and now look where we are.  This stuff is going to get cheaper and cheaper.  Take a look online, they are also getting smaller.  The chirping would be great as you could now trick out entire swaths with dummies and decoys.

We might just deny ourselves out of land manoeuvre at this rate.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, kluge said:

This. The effectiveness of mines is tied to the fact it is orders of magnitude easier to place a minefield than it is to detect and remove one.

Which happens to also be the reason that small disposable platforms aren't clearing mines en masse- even the cheapest tech to perform that task is still going to cost more than a few kg of explosives tucked into a plastic container.

And you can do both you know.  The problem with old dumb mines is that once you clear them, well that is it really.  The whole thing become useless beyond killing civilians and making lives hard post-war.  My bet is they will start small, only for key defenses and then grow from there.  The main reason we will do it is that it can deny better and be mobile in that denial.

[cesmonkey]

According to Rybar:

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We send the Israelis several billion dollars a year, they could be encouraged if we set our minds to it.

That's... a whole different discussion. Suffice to say the US relationship with Israel has become entangled with US domestic politics to the extent that the Administration has limited room to maneuver. It also doesn't help that Netanyahu and Biden despise each other.

[Beleg85]

Regarding meeting Putin made with millbloggers and Cast Away Pegov and nazis Sladkov (interesting, they all are away from the front now...):

 

[hcrof]

23 minutes ago, kluge said:

This. The effectiveness of mines is tied to the fact it is orders of magnitude easier to place a minefield than it is to detect and remove one.

Which happens to also be the reason that small disposable platforms aren't clearing mines en masse- even the cheapest tech to perform that task is still going to cost more than a few kg of explosives tucked into a plastic container.

I can see drones in an effective mine clearing role actually:

First send a bunch of drones with ground penetrating radar to fly low and map the minefield. They don't need direct control so are resistant to EW. 

They return and download the map to a bunch of bomber drones which drop a grenade on each mine, again at very low altitude. The grenades are linked to a trigger so don't go off immediately.

The breaching vehicles form up and the grenades blow the whole minefield at once, or at least a wide path through it. Breaching vehicles immediately drive through with mine rollers to catch anything the drones missed. 

[Artkin]

31 minutes ago, JonS said:

I wasnt aware that the Ukrainians were having particular difficulty knocking out Russian AFVs with the munitions they already have.

Agreed, also if I recall correct DU 120mm from a L/44 barrel isn't much better at penetration than tungsten, so I assumed it came down to the sheer amount of DU that we produce. I think I read tungsten was pretty rare here in the US while Russia is a massive producer of it. Again iirc the L/55 with DM63 offers the highest penetration, but that is one long barrel. I wonder how much less of a barrel life it has with the higher pressures it generates. Then again it's coming straight from Rheinmetall and isn't a licensed reproduction.

[poesel]

Sorry, but my inner grammar Nazi won't shut up. This has been misspelled too often!

It's 'Balkenkreuz' (a cross made with beams). Not 'Balkankreuz' (which means cross of the Balkans).

[Artkin]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

First RA arty I have seen yet...and a little tepid, but it is there.  A minefield normally has pre-sighted targets within it and when a breaching is happening the sky falls on top of it.  That looked a lot more like harassing fire...and no PGM (thank god).

Lord my BDA course was an age ago.  So craters are really tricky.  The fresh ones - and there are some in that pic - have the gray dirt rings around them but those, as can be seen, vary in intensity.  Stuff like dead grass and water are a give away that those are old shell craters - days to weeks.  Even the faded dirt rings are likely hours-to-days old.  Now there are some fresh strikes on this pic, which match the video but not at the concentrations the craters suggest. More like harassing fire than a heavy concentration to kill a combat team.  Other give away is no DPICM.  Minefields were made for DPICM strikes, it is the fastest way to kill a force concentration of combat vehicles.

And some craters are minestrikes, very hard to tell those apart as they too are basically HE going off at ground level.  The real BDA guys can get out the measuring tapes and figure out the caliber and what direction etc.  But I am not seeing heavy concentrations of RA artillery this sort of operation merits.  Now if we can get some new video showing that, or different reports then we can re-think.

Good to know, thanks. Another reason that made me think an artillery barrage landed close by was the amount of destruction the forest on the left has. On the right side of the breachers the forest is completely flattened.

 

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Another good example:

So a moonscape but those craters with the large fresh looking dirt halos are very recent strikes.  This really looks like a single battery mission of maybe 1-2 rounds.  This is really weird for the RA as they are still essentially an artillery army...or at least were.  I would expect to see an iron sky drop on UA forces stuck in a minefield.  Now as has been mentioned could be a lot of reasons this did not happen but I am getting the growing suspicion that something is up with RA artillery.

Indeed a good example. I guess the dirt hasn't been washed into the ground or swept away by wind yet.

Oryx lists 150 MTSA's killed since the start of the war and also 200 of 2S1, 2S3, 2S5 combined.

The Military Balance 2021 lists:

150 2S1 Gvozdika; (-58 confirmed)

800 2S3 Akatsiya; (-115 confirmed)

100 2S5 Giatsint-S; (-25 confirmed)

500 2S19/2S19M1 Msta-S; (-122 confirmed)

320 2S19M2/2S33 Msta-SM (-30 confirmed)

 

So it's possible that sheer attrition has degraded Russia's mobile artillery to the point of being nearly ineffective*. I wonder how many wrecks haven't been reported too, it's not like they're going to be firing at close range often.

It's possible that the MSTA's were mixed up, I doubt Oryx's accuracy is 100% for that specifically, it would be pretty hard to tell the difference.

This is all in addition to the reported ammunition problem.

*Less density on the entire front 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Artkin

[Kraft]

Roman Donik posted this:

Quote

47 brigade. A lot of minefields. Very. Mixed Literally every meter is mined. The brigade really chews up every meter with a fight. This is not an exaggeration. Moving forward with constant battles. The offensive is carried out on foot, because it is still impossible to use the technique due to the density of minefields. It doesn't work otherwise. There simply isn't enough demining technology to wave a magic wand and demine everything. with the feet Otherwise, in the cinema. Have respect for those who are now doing a very big thing. Help. pray be proud What do you want to do to support. But do not sow despair.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Artkin said:

 

This is all in addition to the reported ammunition problem.

How many guns did they lose figuring they had a problem?

 

[Kinophile]

19 minutes ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but my inner grammar Nazi won't shut up. This has been misspelled too often!

It's 'Balkenkreuz' (a cross made with beams). Not 'Balkankreuz' (which means cross of the Balkans).

Fixed!

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, panzermartin said:

In all respect, you yourself among others objected the claims of posters here that photos were fake, like:

One person repeating skepticism of Russian photos does not constitute characterizing the entire thread being under the influence of Copium.  Especially since the Russian official news media, not to mention their outsourced nutjobs, have a long history of manipulating pictures.  In fact, I would have agreed with the eyeballs that were saying a Leopard had been plopped in the picture except that I checked a video and saw it there.

So, you made a claim, I (and others) challenged you on it, and you failed to justify your initial post.  Hopefully you can learn from this, because frankly it is getting a bit tiring.  Contrarian points of view that are not grounded from a well informed and balanced understanding of the facts is as bad as sycophants sniffing copium.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

There is one rumor though that RU situation at south is way worse than everybody thinks. But I am waiting for confirmation on that. 

I know this isn't proof of anything, but when I saw the Leos and Brads blown up WITHOUT seeing the main force committed I thought it was very odd.  Either Ukraine felt this particular axis was worth risking some high profile equipment *OR* it wanted Russia to think this was the main effort.  Therefore, it would not surprise me one bit that Ukraine did this attack explicitly to get Russia to panic.  We have frequently been surprised by very deliberate and clever things done by Ukraine in this war.  They had MONTHS to think up stuff like this.  I think it is more likely true that Ukraine used the 47th as bait than any other reason.

Obviously Ukraine would rather have had them be bait AND not blown up in the process, but obviously that didn't happen.

Another mistake Ukraine made in this battle was not keeping the Russians from poking around the disabled vehicles.  There were woodlines nearby that a harassing force could have been delployed.  This would increase the chances of recovering these vehicles or, at worst, keeping Russian propagandists from poking around with cameras.

Steve

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think a better question is if those special shells are even necessary in order to penetrate Russian tanks? Do they even have any tanks left at this point, let alone any that don't belong in a museum?

Oryx is still adding Russian tank losses, so I'm guessing they still have tanks. The Ukrainians definitely do not need new ammunition in order to kill T-72Bs and T-80BVs, which are two of the most common types of Russian tanks in Ukraine. Although new ammunition would probably be very helpful for killing T-72B3s, T-72B3Ms, T-80Us, T-80BVMs, T-90As, and T-90Ms.

[Artkin]

41 minutes ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but my inner grammar Nazi won't shut up. This has been misspelled too often!

It's 'Balkenkreuz' (a cross made with beams). Not 'Balkankreuz' (which means cross of the Balkans).

Miss Spelled? Is she pretty? 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Miss Spelled? Is she pretty? 

Muphry's Law is alive and well!