How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Nice PS.  Now that is the question we are all asking.  Can we even shape the environment enough to crack a deliberate defence in depth in this environment.  This is a major test to see if Defensive primacy is back.  Offence and Defence have handed off primacy since the beginning.  1494 - Offence is back, last until organizational reforms in mid-1600 and Defence is back.  7 Years War and more reforms along with changes to logistic and Offence is back, lasts thru 1812 until US Civil War but professional do not realize until 1914 when Defence came back with vengeance.  That lasts until 1940 and we are back to Offence…and is it pivoting again in Ukraine?  We shall see.

What we really want to avoid is a repeat of the Civil War to 1914 error where where some fairly obvious lessons were ignored at truly ruinous expense.

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting!  The Rybar post I quoted a page or two again was apparently Putin's speech!  Would have been nice if he made that clear.

Steve

Likely just a body double with AI voice-over because we all know that Putin would never stoop to such defeatist statements.

[FancyCat]

 

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Ok, well things are getting clearer.  Retreating Bradley’s are extracting.  One flies by, second one clearly hit a land mine.  Troops de-bus, no panic the take cover while the gun camera Bradley provides covering fire (ballsy not to simply bail).  Everyone starts popping smoke and troops jump on Bradley to get out of there.

First point shows why it is a bad idea to try to drive back out.  Always push, if you get hit at least you have cleared as far as you got. But I suspect things had gone so wrong they abandoned the mission.  Second troops were controlled and did the right thing post mine strike. Third, no RA artillery. Now I am sure they were very concerned it was going to start dropping but that minefield is not being effectively covered.  Those two videos are four minutes, RA mortars should at least be hammering them - and we are glad they weren’t but that is poor cover of an obstacle.

Lastly, no idea what they were shooting at but obviously in treeline in direction of gun and popped smoke.  So best guess, a recon in force got hit by ATGM from a treeline.  Likely lost breaching vehicles.   At least two Bradleys tried to drive back out (bad) other may have been hit coming or going.  Hit more mines because they were in a Devils OODA loop but that gun Bradley looks like it kept it head and got those troops out because we don’t see a lot of bodies in the Russian videos.  

So bad day in a minefield, looks like most of the troops out alive, so they live to fight again and have proven recon is a dangerous job.  RA still have tank hunting teams and their arty support is questionable (at least in this area).  Hardly a disaster, some AAR points but no need to start calling the Kremlin to discuss terms yet.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, well things are getting clearer.  Retreating Bradley’s are extracting.  One flies by, second one clearly hit a land mine.  Troops de-bus, no panic the take cover while the gun camera Bradley provides covering fire (ballsy not to simply bail).  Everyone starts popping smoke and troops jump on Bradley to get out of there.

First point shows why it is a bad idea to try to drive back out.  Always push, if you get hit at least you have cleared as far as you got. But I suspect things had gone so wrong they abandoned the mission.  Second troops were controlled and did the right thing post mine strike. Third, no RA artillery. Now I am sure they were very concerned it was going to start dropping but that minefield is not being effectively covered.  Those two videos are four minutes, RA mortars should at least be hammering them - and we are glad they weren’t but that is poor cover of an obstacle.

Lastly, no idea what they were shooting at but obviously in treeline in direction of gun and popped smoke.  So best guess, a recon in force got hit by ATGM from a treeline.  Likely lost breaching vehicles.   At least two Bradleys tried to drive back out (bad) other may have been hit coming or going.  Hit more mines because they were in a Devils OODA loop but that gun Bradley looks like it kept it head and got those troops out because we don’t see a lot of bodies in the Russian videos.  

So bad day in a minefield, looks like most of the troops out alive, so they live to fight again and have proven recon is a dangerous job.  RA still have tank hunting teams and their arty support is questionable (at least in this area).  Hardly a disaster, some AAR points but no need to start calling the Kremlin to discuss terms yet.

The_Capt, you are treasure we don't deserve. It also seems to a point for the mass is dead crowd. It is just too hard to suppress every tree line in modern ATGM range. And APS doesn't solve for mines, even if they did have it.

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

His point was that failed attempts are more valuable to the learning process than successful attempts, because failed attempts tend to contain more new information than successful attempts.

That concept has been around a while now:

https://blog.hubspot.com/sales/learning-from-failure-quotes

I agree with the concept in principle. But as a chemical engineer, I know failure can kill people. The same is true in the military context. In business there was a big push to conduct military style AARs on all projects even successful ones. The idea was to find failure even in lucrative projects and learn from it. Let's squeeze more juice from a nice ripe orange. Independent consultants made big bucks teaching the obvious. The question was sometimes asked "Should we fail so we can learn?"

Crickets.  

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

That concept has been around a while now:

https://blog.hubspot.com/sales/learning-from-failure-quotes

I agree with the concept in principle. But as a chemical engineer, I know failure can kill people. The same is true in the military context. In business there was a big push to conduct military style AARs on all projects even successful ones. The idea was to find failure even in lucrative projects and learn from it. Let's squeeze more juice from a nice ripe orange. Independent consultants made big bucks teaching the obvious. The question was sometimes asked "Should we fail so we can learn?"

Crickets.  

If only there was a useful simulator? Anybody heard of one?

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Tangling is probably going to turn into one of the more reliable and cost effective anti drone mechanisms, particularly once anti drone EW pushes everybody to a lot of autonomy.  Like submarine nets, but hanging from the sky.  And able to chase you.

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If only there was a useful simulator? Anybody heard of one?

Holy mackerel! We used to do "wargaming" to anticipate a competitors response to our new product launches. Hour and hours of time. This took place when The Art of War became all the rage in the business community. I am not against learning from failure or doing wargaming exercises. Just don't over apply these to a point when they become a distraction. 

[cesmonkey]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Cannot solve the helicopter problem within contested or mutually denied airspace.

Those things scoot and fire >10km away from "hull down" positions.

This is one way NATO would have handled large Soviet formations with extensive AA.

Fortunately these are not even close to the threat and volume of us army rotatory wing.

I wonder if an attacking force could lay a smoke screen ahead of their lead elements that might obscure the helicopters sensors enough that they couldn't target you from 10 km away?

[dan/california]

Russians getting some kamikaze drones working unfortunately.

On the plus side, the Russians just can't resist the urge to off each other.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Tangling is probably going to turn into one of the more reliable and cost effective anti drone mechanisms, particularly once anti drone EW pushes everybody to a lot of autonomy.  Like submarine nets, but hanging from the sky.  And able to chase you.

Also less likely to take out a pre school if the AI loses it. That will speed the roll out in western countries. No one can possibly think the Russians and Chinese care about the safety of much off anything at this point can they? 

Edit: Per my post above it is an URGENT problem.

Edited June 10, 2023 by dan/california

[Simcoe]

Per the Russians it sounds like even larger attacks happening right now. Really fascinating to see Ukraine facing the same issues with FASCAM mines as the Russians did at Uhledar. 

Also, seems like there was a lot of footage of Russian lancet drones hitting air defense systems this past month. I wonder if the attacks on Kiev and attrition at the front are hampering their ability to provide AA cover.

With both of those in mind. How the hell do you get through a regenerating minefield and no AA cover?

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Simcoe

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Per the Russians it sounds like even larger attacks happening right now. Really fascinating to see Ukraine facing the same issues with FASCAM mines as the Russians did at Uhledar. 

Also, seems like there was a lot of footage of Russian lancet drones hitting air defense systems this past month. I wonder if the attacks on Kiev and attrition at the front are hampering their ability to provide AA cover.

With both of those in mind. How the hell do you get through a regenerating minefield and no AA cover?

 

You kill the MLRS that are regenerating it.

[kevinkin]

Has anyone come across a recent map of Russian long range air defense coverage? S-400; S-300 etc.. ? I am getting more and more frustrated that Putin's nuclear blackmail is preventing an introduction of NATO airpower to end this freaking war in the favor of the west. You can't nuance a way to peace and victory. By doing so you are just using the UA as a tool in a larger geostrategic game. The terrain is perfect for close air support. Ok, take a deep breath. 

 

[Simcoe]

37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You kill the MLRS that are regenerating it.

If it was that easy I imagine they would have done it already. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, I don’t necessarily think this is a UA clown show, at least without a lot more data.  It really looks like a western style breach that went wrong.  It is going to happen so no point in getting to upset.

Heh... I just caught up with this thread in order of oldest to newest.  Before I saw the Ukrainian perspective videos I was going to answer with this:

"Absolutely this was not the fuster cluck it initially looked like.  Thanks to subsequent RUSSIAN videos posted, it is clear that the Ukrainians didn't so anything outstanding in the stupid department.  I still think breaching doctrine needs some tweaks, but it wasn't nearly as bad as it first looked when we saw the pile of destroyed Ukrainian armor all in one spot."

Now that I've seen the Ukrainian videos, wow.  Just wow.  If this is what green Ukrainians do under pressure, the Russians are definitely toast!   That extraction was beautiful, just beautiful.  Everybody did exactly as they should have and as far as we know everybody got out.

Western armor might not have some magical immunity to enemy fire, but we see yet again that our stuff is built to save lives AND it works!

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Aan we even shape the environment enough to crack a deliberate defence in depth in this environment.  This is a major test to see if Defensive primacy is back.  

Absolutely this is a massive test.  One thing we can say for sure already is minefields still suck.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

50 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Also, seems like there was a lot of footage of Russian lancet drones hitting air defense systems this past month. I wonder if the attacks on Kiev and attrition at the front are hampering their ability to provide AA cover.

Could be. While I take it with a massive heap of salt, Rybar said as much.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Russians getting some kamikaze drones working unfortunately.

Fortunately they haven't learned how to engage ERA protected vehicles.  I doubt that Ukrainian T72 was seriously affected by the strike.  Exposed crew could have been, but it seems everybody was buttoned at the time of the hit.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Could be. While I take it with a massive heap of salt, Rybar said as much.

 

Take it with a heap of salt and Copium.  Ukraine's air defenses have always been too thin to protect everything, so for sure the terror strikes on a wide range of civilian locations is absolutely causing Ukraine to concentrate the bulk of their assets away from the frontlines.  But to think losing one of this or one of that is making the difference, I don't think so at all.

As was mentioned before, it's damned hard to knock out helicopters from ground based systems *IF* they use terrain masking and limit their time in the air.  Evidence of this?  Russia's near inability to knock Ukrainian helicopters out of the skies for over a year.  Hell, Ukraine was flying into Mariupol right under their noses!  It was only after the Russians finally figured out what was happening that they were able to ambush them.

Steve

[Kinophile]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We also have to continually remind ourselves that the Russians are showing most of the information due to Ukraine's info blackout.  We're not likely to have the Russians show us their counter attack/reinforcement columns that have been zapped by Ukraine (there is one specific report of such an action).

This alone implies its a molehill made into a mountain by both the Ivan and our own desperate want for any information.

We're not seeing much Russian failures because - why would they show it. Certainly doesnt mean the Ivan's arent crumpling hard in other places.

If anything, the louder the Russian propaganda machine screeches about GLORIOUS SUCCESSES HERE, the more I look at everything else that they're not squawking about.

[kevinkin]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

One thing we can say for sure already is minefields still suck.

Didn't Rommel propose defending the Dniper "Line" after Kursk with a massive use of mines and ATGs aka North Africa? I can't remember the book right now. This was before he got out of hospital and sent west. Anyway, that was then this is now. Conceptually, UAVs are sort of like mobile aerial mine fields. Real pains in the tush. Individually mines and UAVs are nothing, but used in mass; they can produce operational effects on the battlefield. Doesn't the US have the ordinance to take out large minefields? The GBU-43/B (MOAB) comes to mind. 

Edited June 10, 2023 by kevinkin

[Kinophile]

Also, no matter yesterday's Brad-gate, there is a very significant point - it seems that the vast majority of the crews and onboards survived the mine hits and got away. The first reason is that Western kit saves lives, as a priority, and the second is that the Russian's had no significant fires on time/target. 

From ISW:

Quote

Available footage of Ukrainian equipment losses additionally indicates that many of these armored vehicles have been rendered immobile, but not outright destroyed, and are likely recoverable by Ukrainian forces.[20] The footage also suggests that the Ukrainian crews of these armored vehicles, who are far more valuable than the vehicles themselves and can remount new or repaired vehicles, likely survived and withdrew once the vehicles became immobilized.

That last point is very interesting as this is supposedly, after Bahkmut/Donetsk, the most up-gunned front of the Russian lines. Yet an entire UKR mech column got into mine trouble and the most that hit them was an ATGM and a KA52?

Even if the Russians were holding back from the very front lines, why did they not pounce when the column started to explore mine-tank interactions? Where's the batteries if 152s on call, pounding the column back to front? Where's the fricking mortars, AGLs, drones, snipers? The Russians have all this footage of the columns difficulties - yet no arty strikes? The moment those Brads started doing dumb things with mines then the Russian arty should have started to slaughter everyone out in the open. But they didn't, as they had eyes, but no teeth. 

Can you imagine if the roles were reversed? No need to imagine, because - Vuhledar. Now that is what you do to an approaching mech force, if you have eyes and teeth.

This was no Vuhledar. The UKR force pushed into a weakly defended section and fumbled the mine clearance. They got lightly smacked by the defenders but really, inflicted the damage mostly on themselves. They extricated themsleves as a coherent force and retrieved a good amount of the damage vehicles. 

Hopefully the immediate tactical command apply the lessons learned, go over the issues and solutions and try again with better success.

The final question is - will the Russians defend more actively? Do they have the capacity? 

Edited June 10, 2023 by Kinophile

[Fenris]

16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

This alone implies its a molehill made into a mountain by both the Ivan and our own desperate want for any information.

We're not seeing much Russian failures because - why would they show it. Certainly doesnt mean the Ivan's arent crumpling hard in other places.

If anything, the louder the Russian propaganda machine screeches about GLORIOUS SUCCESSES HERE, the more I look at everything else that they're not squawking about.

I posted something similar on another forum.  It is difficult to be patient and stay positive.  My thinking currently though is that RU channels have been making a lot of the the 2 KO'd Leo 2's + Bradley's but that seems to be about it... Ergo, this is the only clear defensive success they've had.  So what about all the other attacks that we know are going on?  The lack of evidence of other glorious victories suggests there probably aren't any.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I posted something similar on another forum.  It is difficult to be patient and stay positive.  My thinking currently though is that RU channels have been making a lot of the the 2 KO'd Leo 2's + Bradley's but that seems to be about it... Ergo, this is the only clear defensive success they've had.  So what about all the other attacks that we know are going on?  The lack of evidence of other glorious victories suggests there probably aren't any.

Trying very hard to just reconcile myself that we are not going to know much for a week or more.  Then I scroll thru 27 twitter and telegram accounts.....again.