How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

After several hours ago, saying "Our troops managed to recapture the captured positions. The enemy rolled back to the starting lines", War Gonzo now says:

https://t.me/wargonzo/13093

Quote

️Zaporozhye️At night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Orekhovo do not stop activity️

In the direction of Orekhov-Tokmak, despite the relative decline in offensive activity, the enemy, nevertheless, sends 15-20 people every hour to again cling to the advanced positions of our troops.

Enemy artillery is still constantly working, so, according to the fighters, arrivals happen almost every minute.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the help of drones, controls the delivery / approach routes and immediately sends artillery shells there.

Also, two enemy tanks were seen, which roll out to our positions and strike.

Despite the failure of the first attempt at a quick offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nothing has been completed on this sector of the front. The boys are in for a tough night. We wish them good luck.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Steve,  we might be wrong....

About Ukraine holding back newly received Western equipment from the first phase of fighting?  Maybe?  Nobody here has yet looked at it in any detail, so I think it's probable that off-the-cuff remarks maybe need some revisiting.

Mine resistant vehicles have been in active use by Ukraine for some time now.  So even if the physical vehicles are newly received, I don't think of this class of vehicles as really "new".  It also makes sense for them to be used because of the high likelihood of hitting a mine.  I am not surprised to these vehicles used right now at this stage.

However, the other reason I am not surprised to see things like MRAPs used now is that we SHOULD expect much of the fighting to be conducted by new units.  New units, by definition, are going to be heavily outfitted with Western equipment, almost all of it newly received.  SPA, AD, and other newly received Western vehicles are also obviously going to be used for the same reason, though we won't see them as much because they aren't typically assaulting fortifications.

There was also a lot of talk about the mine clearing vehicles provided by the West.  Everybody should expect that they are going to be used right away for the obvious reason that is what they are intended for.  So nobody should be surprised to see those in use.

So what does that leave us with?  MBTs (let's include AMX-10 to simplify) and heavy tracked IFVs.  I think THESE are the vehicles we might have been thinking of when some of us didn't expect to see them in the initial breaching operations.  And yet the MBTs so far have already made an appearance and suffered losses.

In retrospect we should not be surprised to see them in use.  Why?  Because we expect the units that have them to be breaching, so why would they NOT be using their MBTs?  That is one of the purposes of the MBT, is it not?  Certainly it is how Ukraine has been using them throughout this war, rightly and wrongly.

The same applies to IFVs, though so far we have not seen any of those yet.  The units with those may not yet be committed.

Personally, I am surprised the Leopard 2s were used so soon.  Ukraine has of them it doesn't seem like a good idea to me for them to be in this sort of fighting.  If the unit parent unit is tasked with breaching, use something else like a different tank company that isn't armed with Leo2s (a Mech BGD should have 3-4 Companies handy) or perhaps an attached Tank Company from one of the Tank Brigades.

To sum up... it is logical for newly received Western vehicles to be seen in the early breaching operations, though I still think it is a suboptimal choice to use high visibility, rare MBTs and IFVs for clearing trenches.

Steve

[sburke]

Putin should freeze war as Ukraine 'too strong', says top Russian propagandist (yahoo.com)

The head of Russian state TV network RT and one of Vladimir Putin’s top propagandists has suggested Moscow should freeze the war in the face of state-of-the-art Western weaponry that Ukraine now holds.

Margarita Simonyan, who has regularly called for all-out war on Ukraine, argued on prime-time television in favour of a negotiated solution and a halt to hostilities while referenda are organised in Russian-occupied territory.

She presented her U-turn as a best-case scenario now that Ukraine has access to Nato-supplied weapons now being used on Russia soil and in the counter offensive.

“I’ve been talking about this for the whole year. It would be so good to stop the bloodshed right now, stay where we are, freeze it and hold referenda,” she said on Vladimir Solovyev’s prime-time talk show on Rossiya 1.

“Do we need territories where people don’t want to live with us? I’m not sure.”

Calls for resignation
Her suggestions, especially remarks about “disputed territories” in Ukraine, caused a backlash at home while some of Russia’s loudest mouthpieces of the war accused her of crossing Vladimir Putin who “officially” recognised the occupied areas as part of Russia last year.

“Did Simonyan get a new boss now? Who is paying her? A referendum on Russia’s territories that she calls ‘disputed’ would be a Godsend for Western strategists,” Roman Alekhin, a Russian military volunteer and writer, wrote in a column for Tsargrad TV on Wednesday.

Lesser known pro-war bloggers called for her resignation while Igor Girkin, a former Ukrainian separatist commander accused Ms Simonyan, an ethnic Armenian, of first betraying Armenia’s national interests by supporting a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia over a breakaway region, and now trying to do the same for Russia: “We will figure things out for Russians and Russia without you.”

[Battlefront.com]

I presume this count is coming from the daily Ukrainian MOD report, which is cumulative but many people are keeping track of the day to day differences.  If not, I have no idea what the source is so caveats applied

This is part of what the Russians never want to talk about, but especially now.  Which is that Ukraine has the ability and brains to spend its resources on taking out "high value" Russian targets.  Even if Russians have replacements for these (and over time the answer is less positive) they need to be moved into the combat zone.  This takes time, which is problematic for Russia's chosen form of static defense.

As long as Ukraine can knock out the backbone of Russia's ability to defend FASTER than Russia can reconstitute it, without harming its own ability to continue the offensive, then it's just a matter of time before the Russian defenses collapse. 

Once Russia's primary lines collapse, things are going to get interesting fast.  Russia has no mobile reserve to speak of, and even if it did we have seen on evidence in this war that they would be able to use it effectively.  Therefore, Ukraine's forces will face secondary static positions which are more poorly staffed and equipped than the primary ones.  If Ukraine's forces are still in good enough shape, these positions will not likely hold out for very long.  Especially because they have more terrain and possibly approaches to cover, which means they are more likely to be bypassed than the primary positions.

If you look at everything that went wrong with the Russian offensives this Winter and most of last year, in fact, you can see that none of what I just said applied to Russian attacks.  They failed to cleanse the battlefield, they weren't able to advance faster than Ukraine could replenish, losses taken were in excess of what they could afford, and they never got through the primary defenses before previously secondary defenses were incorporated into a new line.

I don't know how badly Russia is going to lose this large battle, but it will lose it.  I have no doubt.  I also have no doubts that whatever they lose this year will remain lost to them forever.

Steve

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To sum up... it is logical for newly received Western vehicles to be seen in the early breaching operations, though I still think it is a suboptimal choice to use high visibility, rare MBTs and IFVs for clearing trenches.

Agree. I think the UA is in the recon pull stage. But not against a Cold War Soviet army on the move. But a ill led, under supplied RA of June 2023. But dug-in to some degree which means they are lacking mobility. Rope a dope in my estimation. These jabs are not weak because a haymaker is waiting in reserve. If the UA can't find an economical way forward then it's up to the political leadership to explain why. But we are just not there yet.   

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin should freeze war as Ukraine 'too strong', says top Russian propagandist (yahoo.com)

The head of Russian state TV network RT and one of Vladimir Putin’s top propagandists has suggested Moscow should freeze the war in the face of state-of-the-art Western weaponry that Ukraine now holds.

Margarita Simonyan, who has regularly called for all-out war on Ukraine, argued on prime-time television in favour of a negotiated solution and a halt to hostilities while referenda are organised in Russian-occupied territory.

She presented her U-turn as a best-case scenario now that Ukraine has access to Nato-supplied weapons now being used on Russia soil and in the counter offensive.

“I’ve been talking about this for the whole year. It would be so good to stop the bloodshed right now, stay where we are, freeze it and hold referenda,” she said on Vladimir Solovyev’s prime-time talk show on Rossiya 1.

“Do we need territories where people don’t want to live with us? I’m not sure.”

Calls for resignation
Her suggestions, especially remarks about “disputed territories” in Ukraine, caused a backlash at home while some of Russia’s loudest mouthpieces of the war accused her of crossing Vladimir Putin who “officially” recognised the occupied areas as part of Russia last year.

“Did Simonyan get a new boss now? Who is paying her? A referendum on Russia’s territories that she calls ‘disputed’ would be a Godsend for Western strategists,” Roman Alekhin, a Russian military volunteer and writer, wrote in a column for Tsargrad TV on Wednesday.

Lesser known pro-war bloggers called for her resignation while Igor Girkin, a former Ukrainian separatist commander accused Ms Simonyan, an ethnic Armenian, of first betraying Armenia’s national interests by supporting a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia over a breakaway region, and now trying to do the same for Russia: “We will figure things out for Russians and Russia without you.”

Oh that is awesome!  She is not some unknown blond running on camera with a placard saying the war is wrong, this is a woman who is a kindred spirit of Josef Göbbels himself.  She is a central, high visibility regime propagandist.

The interesting thing to ask right now is what happened behind the scenes that preceded this?  It is VERY hard to imagine that she just decided to do this on her own without concern for the consequences.  I wouldn't go so far as to ask "who is paying her?" as Alekhin did, but I do wonder "did Simonyan get a new boss now?".  It seems to me the answer might very well be she did and we can be sure it isn't the CIA.

Steve

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh that is awesome!  She is not some unknown blond running on camera with a placard saying the war is wrong, this is a woman who is a kindred spirit of Josef Göbbels himself.  She is a central, high visibility regime propagandist.

The interesting thing to ask right now is what happened behind the scenes that preceded this?  It is VERY hard to imagine that she just decided to do this on her own without concern for the consequences.  I wouldn't go so far as to ask "who is paying her?" as Alekhin did, but I do wonder "did Simonyan get a new boss now?".  It seems to me the answer might very well be she did and we can be sure it isn't the CIA.

Steve

Yes, in the same way Goebbels would want to freeze the conflict in spring of 1944, I suppose.  Kinda late.  If you want to freeze the conflict, you need to actually defeat UKR to the point where UKR has no choice but to cede land to end the war.  Rather hard to see how RU pulls that off.  But, of course, referendums would definitely stop UKR forces in their tracks.

[danfrodo]

And really disgusting to see all the pants-wetting over UKR losing some vehicles, incl some nice new NATO ones.  WTF do these people expect?  And one mistake by one group in one field suddenly means all UKR army is incompetent?  Geeeeeeez, some folks out there need to get a grip.  The 'game' is just starting and we've got the much much better team.

[Battlefront.com]

Nöel just put out a fairly comprehensive report for the whole front.  Looks like things continue to go very well at Bakhmut, with Ukrainian forces once again regaining more territory in a day that Wagner took in more than a month.  The limited reporting out of Novosilka seems encouraging:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And really disgusting to see all the pants-wetting over UKR losing some vehicles, incl some nice new NATO ones.  WTF do these people expect?  And one mistake by one group in one field suddenly means all UKR army is incompetent?  Geeeeeeez, some folks out there need to get a grip.  The 'game' is just starting and we've got the much much better team.

In some ways this is helpful to Ukraine.  For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  People who are now convinced, either because of Copium or ignorance, that Ukraine is in trouble are simply setting themselves up for a major emotional reversal when things go the other way.  Especially if Ukraine does something dramatic.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh that is awesome!  She is not some unknown blond running on camera with a placard saying the war is wrong, this is a woman who is a kindred spirit of Josef Göbbels himself.  She is a central, high visibility regime propagandist.

The interesting thing to ask right now is what happened behind the scenes that preceded this?  It is VERY hard to imagine that she just decided to do this on her own without concern for the consequences.  I wouldn't go so far as to ask "who is paying her?" as Alekhin did, but I do wonder "did Simonyan get a new boss now?".  It seems to me the answer might very well be she did and we can be sure it isn't the CIA.

Steve

Maybe she just sobered up and started to lay off the booze. Girkin did categorize her as an alcoholic.

Who am I kidding, she just does not wants the booze money to not dry up. regardless if her boss who signs her checks is the same person or someone different. I think they can see that the "special military operation" is not going to plan, and are preparing the people who watch her show for the prospect that...*Gasp* Russia will not be able to fully defeat the Ukrainian military. We all know this is the case but for the average viewer of her program this may come as a bit of a shock.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

Dramatic footage of what it is like for grunts on the ground to be subjected to an incendiary attack:

Steve

[pintere]

Bear in mind that the Tiger I’s combat debut was pretty unspectacular, and yet it also went on to wreck the Russians on quite a few occasions throughout 1943. 

It‘s still far too early to draw any conclusions about how effective the Leo 2 is.

[Battlefront.com]

1.  NoelReports passing along tantalizing information, in part from the defending Russian unit, that first line positions near Robotyne have been secured by Ukraine.  This is significantly beyond the gray zone and is in direct path (highway) to Tokmak.

2.  Just another Russian artillery position taken out.  It never gets old for me!

3.  This one goes out to our very own Splinty!

4. Russian liberators troll Russians with a video similar to the Ukraine MoD, only a tad bit darker:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/144h5xy/freedom_of_russia_legion_ask_for_silence_on_the/

 

Steve

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Another thing about that Bradley photo above. The pesky Abrams in the corner with CIP panels hanging off it. Not particularly Ukrainian.

 

Sigh.  Yes,  I know it's an American unit. I was referring to the quote,  and the fairly confirmed destruction of a Leo 2 today (though it wasn't really on the front line). 

TBF,  we're tracking the first wave only of assaults only,  which will expose the hard/soft parts of the Ivans defense. Second stage assaults will probably NATO gear,  into those confirmed soft bits. 

[Splinty]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

1.  NoelReports passing along tantalizing information, in part from the defending Russian unit, that first line positions near Robotyne have been secured by Ukraine.  This is significantly beyond the gray zone and is in direct path (highway) to Tokmak.

2.  Just another Russian artillery position taken out.  It never gets old for me!

3.  This one goes out to our very own Splinty!

4. Russian liberators troll Russians with a video similar to the Ukraine MoD, only a tad bit darker:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/144h5xy/freedom_of_russia_legion_ask_for_silence_on_the/

 

Steve

I love my Brads! Get 'em boys!

[kevinkin]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

and are preparing the people who listen to her show for the prospect that...*Gasp* Russia will not be able to fully defeat the Ukrainian military.

Might be taking a page out of western prime time cable "news". Keep the controversy going as long as possible. It's good for ratings, page views etc.. . But even with this cynical view, there might be something more to this than simple greed. I think we will see signs i.e. cracks in Russia's support system that may or may not be significant to the overall situation. Progress will be meaningful when the signals pointing to UA successes out number the noise pointing in the other direction. But keep a very open mind to raw data.   

[DesertFox]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dramatic footage of what it is like for grunts on the ground to be subjected to an incendiary attack:

Steve

The original posts are generated here:

If you want to be up to date what happens in 3rd Assault Brig sector at the Bakhmut axis follow @Danspiun on Twitter. Tough content there, but that is war.

Posts 101 since Bila Hora Counterattack startet on 07/06/2023

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by DesertFox

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

And really disgusting to see all the pants-wetting over UKR losing some vehicles, incl some nice new NATO ones.  WTF do these people expect?  And one mistake by one group in one field suddenly means all UKR army is incompetent?  Geeeeeeez, some folks out there need to get a grip.  The 'game' is just starting and we've got the much much better team.

I like seeing those actually . Feeling the need to call the outcome of an operation with supposedly multiple brigades in strength which, when there is some video of what could be like a company/battalion on the move having difficult time, perfectly shows their petty thoughts of trivial value. Kids in the chocolate propaganda factory who enjoy being fooled .

 

[keas66]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

I like seeing those actually . Feeling the need to call the outcome of an operation with supposedly multiple brigades in strength which, when there is some video of what could be like a company/battalion on the move having difficult time, perfectly shows their petty thoughts of trivial value. Kids in the chocolate propaganda factory who enjoy being fooled .

 

I mean one wonders how the Allies would have fared with modern style social media pundits screaming that the  Normandy Invasion had failed  - "we are stuck on the beaches ... we are doomed !"  . I am tempted myself to  restrict myself to weekly updates only .

[Lethaface]

50 minutes ago, pintere said:

Bear in mind that the Tiger I’s combat debut was pretty unspectacular, and yet it also went on to wreck the Russians on quite a few occasions throughout 1943. 

It‘s still far too early to draw any conclusions about how effective the Leo 2 is.

As effective as Ukraine can utilize it and prevent them from getting hit with arty or ATGM/mines etc. 

[DesertFox]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

1.  NoelReports passing along tantalizing information, in part from the defending Russian unit, that first line positions near Robotyne have been secured by Ukraine.  This is significantly beyond the gray zone and is in direct path (highway) to Tokmak.

If they manage to get the Tokmak - Melitopol axis, then Crimea is logistically finished. No way the Orcs can supply that through the Kerch bridge alone. I hope for the best. Progress is looking very good and promising, but this is no 3 day special military operation. End of the week we will know more for sure.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I mean one wonders how the Allies would have fared with modern style social media pundits screaming that the  Normandy Invasion had failed  - "we are stuck on the beaches ... we are doomed !"  . I am tempted myself to  restrict myself to weekly updates only .

Imagine the outcry on social media about the slugfest around CAEN until finally at 8th August Op. TOTALIZE started.

[Lethaface]

Just now, keas66 said:

I mean one wonders how the Allies would have fared with modern style social media pundits screaming that the  Normandy Invasion had failed  - "we are stuck on the beaches ... we are doomed !"  . I am tempted myself to  restrict myself to weekly updates only .

 
RL helped me a bit restricting my following of proceedings lately, which is imo a good thing especially the stuff like twitter. People feel the need to post stuff and keep it going not really being bothered whether there is actually something worthy to post but rather how to get likes/'followers', etc.

Although I probably will follow a bit more closely the coming weeks now that things seem to be 'in motion' and have some more time. 

[DesertFox]

Obviously some folks aren't interested playing TikTok warrior...