How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

Artillery in the Urban environment, by two serving U.S. officers who have observed Ukraine as closely as is possible without resigning and joining the Ukrainian military. 

I liked listening to the podcast, but your comment above is quite a stretch ...

Edited May 27, 2023 by cesmonkey

[riptides]

Cracks....appear.

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1662367674834251777?t=vgo6ruO0zMRzD5Qf_lcRvg&s=19

[Artkin]

Shut down twitter already. FFS.

No I will never make an account on your **** poser website. No matter how many blocks on information you pose. 

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Artillery in the Urban environment, by two serving U.S. officers who have observed Ukraine as closely as is possible without resigning and joining the Ukrainian military. My nominee for podcast of the year. If anybody has a handy way to do voice to text it would be worth the time.

Hey whatever happened to that 70 year old Vietnam vet?  The one with the incredible wide set of skills and expertise?

[cesmonkey]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hey whatever happened to that 70 year old Vietnam vet?  The one with the incredible wide set of skills and expertise?

He's still kicking, doing his thing:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/author/kmizokami1/

[cesmonkey]

The Russian rybar telegram channel had an interesting post today. I'll paste the Google translation below:
https://t.me/s/rybar/

Quote

Zaporizhia direction
Situation as of 12:00 on May 27, 2023

Judging by the characteristic signs, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have completed the main preparations for the offensive. The enemy grouping is practically formed for an attack in three areas: Orekhovsky , Pologovsky and Gulyaipolsky . In addition, the tactical group "Marun"

was created in the southeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region , which included the forces of 46 oambr, 82 airborne brigade and 132 reconnaissance battalion of the DShV, as well as 71 ebr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Previously, 132 orbs were not observed near Zaporozhye . Also in Gavrilovka there were units deployed from the Kharkov region, presumably

assault brigade "Spartan" . And Chaplino housed members of the 3rd battalion of the 33rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

HIMARS MLRS firing points are equipped along the contact line in the areas of the settlements of Primorskoye , Krasnaya Krinitsa , General , Gulyaipole , Novosoloshchino . MiG-29 and Su-25 tactical aircraft with Storm Shadow cruise missiles (CR) regularly operate

from the airfield in Dnepropetrovsk . At the same time, attacks on Russian cities are being delivered from the same districts - Krasnogorsk , Gavrilovka and Novosoloshchino .

A tank unit with a T-64 was deployed from Dnepropetrovsk to the Zaporizhzhia region, and 110 SRW were delivered to the Vremievsky ledge to reinforcefour tanks and several MaxxPRO AFVs.

 

[billbindc]

Worth noting. It is starting to feel like there are some tremors in the system suddenly. As Girkin alludes to, it will be interesting to see where Wagner’s core combat elements are sent to for reconstituting. 

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

He's still kicking, doing his thing:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/author/kmizokami1/

And his current thing is parsing why Putin has not used nukes yet. He’s Gunny Kissinger.

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Wow that is a lot of unsupported opinion coming fast and dressed up like facts. Ok, so the game of states is largely irrelevant and bio terrorism is the one you worry about…got it.  Oh and worlds largest energy producer:

https://www.eia.gov/international/rankings/world?pa=12&u=0&f=A&v=none&y=01%2F01%2F2021

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production#:~:text=China is the world's largest,the United States and India.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/07/the-worlds-largest-energy-producers.html

Oh hey and look who the largest consumer is too:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263455/primary-energy-consumption-of-selected-countries/#:~:text=China is the largest consumer,such as oil and coal.

Clearly you have this all figured out.  But oddly the US National Security Strategy and Defence Strategies disagree with your position:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf

https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-us-national-defense-strategy-2022

I am going to pull on one thread here: “but their bet is we miss their production, and they forget who the most warlike country of all time is.”

All war is sacrifice - the west went nuts when we asked its citizens to wear masks, I am not confident out sacrifice calculus is higher than Chinas in an upcoming conflict.  

Also most warlike country of all time is not the US, it barely makes a blip in history to be honest - although Jimmy Carter and China both agree with you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

The most warlike (a squishy metric) country for scope and scale would likely go to the Mongols.

A heated competition between a China power pole is already happening - everyone in the business of security and defence knows this.  While your “China and India..meh” strategy is noted, I think I will go my assessment for now.

 

 

Clearly a big part of China’s covid response was a test case for what kind of social control might be necessary in the case of a longish war with the US over Taiwan…and that experiment ended quite suddenly when the Xi government realized the limits. The larger point: China can and would do some pretty radical things to prevail in a war with the US but at the same time is a peaking, fragile power.

Or as Buck Turgison might have put it…I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed.  But no more than 10 to 20 million killed. Tops.

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

He's still kicking, doing his thing:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/author/kmizokami1/

Oh cool, he is now onto nuclear deterrence calculus.

[cesmonkey]

Saw this in a link from the Reporting From Ukraine YouTube Channel:

Meet the R18, Ukraine’s formidable night strike drone transforming the battlefield
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/24/meet-the-r18-ukraines-formidable-night-strike-drone-transforming-the-battlefield/

[FancyCat]

Maybe it’s just me, but this ramp up of activity looks well in swing, along every front. 

 

[Centurian52]

16 hours ago, Tux said:

I think being able to reliably put your bomb load into a football stadium would have made you one of the most accurate bombers of the war

Yeah, I was thinking of dive bombers when I made that statement. Any medium or heavy bomber would have to be incredibly lucky to achieve even that, Operation Jericho notwithstanding.

[Centurian52]

15 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Well, **** happens. Good luck collecting them...

 

 

Gosh, I wonder why criminals aren't considered to be desirable recruits in most armies?

[DesertFox]

Berdiansk

 

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by DesertFox

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Worth noting. It is starting to feel like there are some tremors in the system suddenly. As Girkin alludes to, it will be interesting to see where Wagner’s core combat elements are sent to for reconstituting. 

Well, this is one of the scenarios we've discussed since this war started and, more specifically, after Prig started to gain importance.  We've been wondering when Putin would have to deal with the delicate balance between a tool powerful enough to put a check on the MoD and not powerful enough to challenge is rule.  That time might be here very soon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Interrupting the economics debate for a moment...

Looking over all the open source data on the Ivan Khurs:

• Multiple videos and photos from various angles of it returning to Sevastopol with no visible damage
• US satellite images of it being back in its usual berth in Sevastopol
• No claims or evidence from Ukraine or NATO of it being anywhere else
• No video or photos existing of any damage to the ship

I think it is reasonable to conclude at the moment that it didn't suffer any serious externally visible damage and returned to Sevastopol under its own power at a pretty normal speed. 

Possibly it suffered some less obvious equipment damage, but there's no evidence for that.  Russia is saying it will return to sea once it has completed its resupply, which is the reason it returned to port, so I guess the real test so be how long it says docked in Sevastopol.  If it's heading back to the Bosphorus area within a few days,  it's probably mostly fine.  If it stays docked for several weeks,  it's probably having some kind of repairs carried out.

That's disappointing.

So, what was the video of the USV apparently hitting the rear of the ship?  I suppose its possible that it impacted in a way that didn't cause any significant damage, but I don't think that's likely.  If it had been a dud the camera feed wouldn't have cut out like that.

I didn't look at the USV feed carefully enough to know if it was even the Ivan Khurs that was attacked.  Could be it was attributed.

Steve

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Worth noting. It is starting to feel like there are some tremors in the system suddenly. As Girkin alludes to, it will be interesting to see where Wagner’s core combat elements are sent to for reconstituting. 

Still it may be just effect of their orkish quarrells, those two don't like each other long time, Girkin criticize almost everybody habitually + Russians are visibly starting to feel effects of media panic. Nice to watch, but too early to tell the effect.

 

Also, there are more news today about Lukashenko being admitted into hospital (again) this time in Moscow. Do not jump to conclusions, though; it seems like another media scoop for now.

[sburke]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

A heated competition between a China power pole is already happening - everyone in the business of security and defence knows this.  While your “China and India..meh” strategy is noted, I think I will go my assessment for now.

 “Amateurs talk economics, professionals talk parking garages.”

I go to a mall, and it is just a basic drive-in structure that usually works part time as a urinal.  Then I see these.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/china/article-5791007/Chinese-city-unveils-glitzy-automated-parking-lot-TWENTY-SIX-storeys-tall.html

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/mumbai-gets-underground-parking-in-reliance-jio-garden-51029.html

We are doomed!  Doomed I tell you!

[Battlefront.com]

Another incursion into Belgorod?

And some footage allegedly of the fighting:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13t8icu/belgorod_region_ongoing_fighting/

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Worth noting. It is starting to feel like there are some tremors in the system suddenly. As Girkin alludes to, it will be interesting to see where Wagner’s core combat elements are sent to for reconstituting. 

I am still having a hard time seeing how Wagner could threaten RU power structure.  Putin surely has plenty of Wagner officers on discrete payroll and would know well in advance of any naughty ideas Prig had.  Would they just drive to Moscow & attack the Kremlin???  Coup kinda requires some level of surprise I would think.  Plus all RU army has to do is not send food & ammo and it's game over pretty quickly.  Wagnerites could live off the land (sacking grocery stores) I suppose for a while.  I would be shocked if Putin let Wagner army anywhere near anything important in RU.

[Harmon Rabb]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am still having a hard time seeing how Wagner could threaten RU power structure.  Putin surely has plenty of Wagner officers on discrete payroll and would know well in advance of any naughty ideas Prig had.  Would they just drive to Moscow & attack the Kremlin???  Coup kinda requires some level of surprise I would think.  Plus all RU army has to do is not send food & ammo and it's game over pretty quickly.  Wagnerites could live off the land (sacking grocery stores) I suppose for a while.  I would be shocked if Putin let Wagner army anywhere near anything important in RU.

According to Perun's video on the Wagner group, Wagner has a base near a short range RU ballistic missile location. Perun also thinks that Wagner as heavily reliant on the RU MoD to exist. Skip to 26:06 if you want to hear it from the man himself.

 

[Seminole]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 There's been 0.0000000% chance of NATO attacking Russian forces for any reason other than Russia engaging in an activity that provoked such an attack, so the Russian defense spending has been for reasons other than being threatened.

Such as the way Serbia ‘provoked’ the NATO intervention in their civil war.  
Or perhaps the Libyan ‘provocations’ that necessitated NATO intervention in their civil war.

NATO would never intervene in a foreign civil war again, right?  Bonkers notion.  Unless maybe it was in essence on their ‘border’?  
 

I would think Russian leadership could look at the brutal civil war waged in Chechnya and conclude there is a greater than 0.0000000% chance NATO could intervene in a future Russian peripheral separatists conflict, if they had bases reasonably close enough to contribute.  Hence the desire to avoid the development of such bases, and thus render even more remote the possibility. 
 

After Kosovo and Libya you can’t truthfully argue that NATO is a ‘purely defensive’ organization. It’s become a multi-national end run on the UN’s monopoly of force.  That isn’t to argue whether that is itself desirable or not, it’s simply the case.  

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, riptides said:

Cracks....appear.

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1662367674834251777?t=vgo6ruO0zMRzD5Qf_lcRvg&s=19

That is a pretty big deal, calling for Putin to step down on State TV.

[Tux]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

Curiously, by 1944 the RAF was far more accurate by night than the USAAF was by day.

Is that so?  I don’t remember reading that. Was it ‘just’ OBOE pathfinders and H2S that enabled that or am I forgetting something else?