How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

To which I would add “…any Russian government based information”

Which is why the post Cold War investigations revealed the Soviet *actual* spending was…essentially flat, as now understood. The house of cards was collapsing without any additional pushes by USA spending. It was rotten for a very long time. And it looks to be about ready to do a rerun!

[paxromana]

23 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Which is why the post Cold War investigations revealed the Soviet *actual* spending was…essentially flat, as now understood. The house of cards was collapsing without any additional pushes by USA spending. It was rotten for a very long time. And it looks to be about ready to do a rerun!

I think its increasingly obvious that Russia never really stopped being 'rotten' ... they just papered over the cracks for a while.

Arguably, Russia was rotten from late Czarist times and the Revolution really didn't change anything, except make it worse in the long term.

I'm not at all sure that even overthrowing Putin would really change things ... except in the (extremely unlikely) event of a root and branch destruction and rebuilding of the entire State from the ground up.

Edited May 26, 2023 by paxromana

[sburke]

Head of Russian private army Wagner says his forces are handing control of Bakhmut to Moscow (yahoo.com)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private military contractor Wagner claimed Thursday that his forces have started pulling out of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine and handing over control to the Russian military, days after he said Wagner troops had captured the ruined city.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a convicted criminal and Wagner’s millionaire owner with longtime links to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said in a video published on Telegram that the handover would be completed by June 1. Russia's Defense Ministry didn't confirm this and it wasn't possible independently to verify whether Wagner’s pullout from the bombed-out city has begun after a nine-month battle that killed tens of thousands of people. Prigozhin said his troops would now rest in camps, repair equipment and await further orders.

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said Thursday that regular Russian troops had replaced Wagner units in the suburbs but that Wagner fighters remained inside the city. Ukrainian forces maintain a foothold in the southwestern outskirts, she said.

[FancyCat]

Little by little, more and more regions of Russia are starting to see effects of war. Krasnodar is quite far away from the frontlines. Little by little, Ukrainian attacks into Russia proper are being normalized. Recall the first forays and the heightened worries and rhetoric about Russian escalation, and now UAVs, explosions go off in the border regions and barely a peep is heard in the West. 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by FancyCat

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Fenris said:

I'm not really aware of it happening in any other recent conflicts beyond the odd occasion - anyone have an idea why we're seeing them fairly often now?

We've been seeing these go on since the 2014 conflict, so there's nothing new in concept.  In terms of numbers, for sure there's a lot more prisoners being exchanged because there are just so many more POWs to be exchanged with.

I have no idea where to get a total, but the number is well into the low 1000s of Ukrainian POWs returned home.  Most are military, but occasionally there are civilians working with the military (medics in particular).  For the most part the exchanges are 1:1, but at the beginning of the war there were a couple of exchanges that were favorable to Ukraine.  Especially the one where Medvedchuk and 55 Russians were exchanged for 205 Ukrainians and 10 foreign nationals:

https://news.yahoo.com/swapped-why-ukraine-largest-prisoner-144900794.html

Prisoner exchanges are a fairly normal part of large scale conventional wars.  POWs cost money to house and feed so the prospect of getting your own people back while also getting rid of a responsibility is generally a good thing.  By the time the exchanges are made any useful information the POWs might have is likely already extracted.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, keas66 said:

The Unit Badge ... pretty much looks like a Polish Eagle I think is the gist of it

Nah, it's closer to a West German (unified Germany) Federal eagle as used by the Bundesgrenschutz.  Here they are side by side of the new Ukrainian unit badge, BGS badge, and Polish eagle.

 

Steve

 

[CAZmaj]

Satellite data show Ukraine’s forces are testing Russia’s defences

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1b--Uodoj0rdjZ7ZaXwOYS9qLaasT5fwE/view?usp=sharing

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/25/satellite-data-show-ukraines-forces-are-testing-russias-defences?utm_content=article-link-3&etear=nl_today_3&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/25/2023&utm_id=1613001

 

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday's ISW report shows more strife within Russian power circles over what to do about Priggy:

Quote

Russian political strategist Konstantin Dolgov claimed on May 25 that he was fired as a result of his May 23 interview with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Dolgov published a post to his Telegram channel alleging that he was fired from his position with Russian propaganda platform Telega Online “because of an interview with Prigozhin” and refuted claims that he had previous plans to leave.[33] Prigozhin used his interview with Dolgov to highlight the massive scale of losses suffered by the Wagner Group during the Battle of Bakhmut, mount scathing critiques against Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, attack the families of Russian elites, and vaguely threaten violence against the broader Russian military establishment.[34] Dolgov complained that he is being personally punished for Prigozhin’s replies because Russian authorities cannot do anything about Prigozhin himself and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin would disagree with his firing.[35] Dolgov’s firing may be part of a larger informational campaign pushed by Russian authorities that is aimed at quietly disenfranchising Prigozhin in an attempt to counterbalance Prigozhin’s ever-growing platform, which continues to deprive Russian military officials of informational oxygen.

This is an excellent way to control Prig's ability to speak... fire or arrest anybody that interviews him.

The relief-in-place op to swap Wagner for MoD forces is underway with, apparently, some amount of DPR forces in the mix.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days as it does seem to be a good time for Ukraine to hit the newly deployed forces.

The rest of the report wasn't all that noteworthy. 

Steve

[Vic4]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, it's closer to a West German (unified Germany) Federal eagle as used by the Bundesgrenschutz.  Here they are side by side of the new Ukrainian unit badge, BGS badge, and Polish eagle.

 

Steve

 

At its’ core, the design appears based in compliment. Nothing wrong with a united front..!

[Pete Wenman]

Stolen from the ACIG forums

 

Quote

https://t.me/Tsaplienko/32559

News to Ivan Khurs warship:
- it was hit by 2 USV, 3 were blown by ship defence
- it is seriously damaged and is being towed to Novorossiysk port at 0,8 knot speed
- there is certain possibility it could sink
- 6 crew men died: 2 fall overboard, 4 because of explosure in eingine room
- the warship itself is a huge radio electronic warfare station, it was detecting UA Himarses and missiles over huge territory
- if it will mot sink, it would be out of service for at least 6 months

May or may not be accurate

P

[FancyCat]

Ship was nearer to Turkey than Ukraine, while I know nothing about how ISR works, why wouldn't they just set up shop in the port in Crimea to monitor Ukraine?

[TheVulture]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ship was nearer to Turkey than Ukraine, while I know nothing about how ISR works, why wouldn't they just set up shop in the port in Crimea to monitor Ukraine?

Maybe they are monitoring the agreed Ukrainian grain shipments through the Bosphorus, or just monitoring traffic in and out of the Black Sea to make sure Turkey isn't letting NATO countries slip military vessels in to the Black Sea. Or monitoring NATO drone and aviation traffic over the southern Black Sea that is being used to gather intel on Russian movements.

After all, Russia would need to have contingency plans to try and counter the intelligence gathering flights NATO is running over the Black Sea in the event that NATO directly enters the shooting war, and so gathering data on what flights are happening, patterns etc. and trying to intercept or disrupt their communications would seems prudent.

Edited May 26, 2023 by TheVulture

[TheVulture]

Looking at various reports of things happening in Russia and Russian-occupied territory this morning, it seems in the last 12 hours we've had:

• Video of Russian air defense shooting something down at Morozovsk which is claimed to have been a Ukrainian missile
• Explosions in occupied Berdiansk (again)
• Missile strike on Donetsk city
• Drone attack on Krasnodar (area of Russia closest to Crimea)
• FSB reports foiling an explosives-based attack on a security target in Gelendzhik, and a Ukrainian sympathiser has been arrested (close to Krasnodar)

Definitely seems to be be a continuation of the pattern of increased 'things going bang' in Russian controlled areas, presumably as part of the shaping the offensive (as well as the Russian public mindset)

[Lethaface]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yesterday's ISW report shows more strife within Russian power circles over what to do about Priggy:

This is an excellent way to control Prig's ability to speak... fire or arrest anybody that interviews him.

The relief-in-place op to swap Wagner for MoD forces is underway with, apparently, some amount of DPR forces in the mix.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days as it does seem to be a good time for Ukraine to hit the newly deployed forces.

Indeed would seem like a good strike option, or an ambush plan by Wagner/Russia; if they are capable of such.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Which is why the post Cold War investigations revealed the Soviet *actual* spending was…essentially flat, as now understood. The house of cards was collapsing without any additional pushes by USA spending. It was rotten for a very long time. And it looks to be about ready to do a rerun!

I think this position likely decouples too far.  This suggests that if the US had dramatically decreased spending the USSR would have stayed “flat” and collapsed anyway.  I do not think this is true.  Western and Soviet defence spending were linked, however were a component in a larger competition.  If one decouples US defence spending from the argument then it is too easy to insert revisionist agendas on current defence spending - eg “well it had nothing to do with the outcome of the Cold War, why are we doing it again with China?”

The Soviet system was brittle and flawed from the get go.  By forcing it onto an unsustainable trajectory by creating a decades long arms race the West did successfully create pressures that led to an eventual collapse of the system.  It took a lot of pressures of which military was a central component.  If the West had tapped out and relieved the pressure the Soviet system could have also reduced spending and perhaps survived much longer.  The effect of Western defence spending was much larger and longer than any single decade of the Cold War.

[TheVulture]

Makes a change from the usual "nuke everyone" rhetoric we are used to from Russian TV:

Quote

Russia has no plans to use nuclear weapons in connection with the situation around Ukraine, there have been no changes in doctrinal approaches to this issue, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

https://t.me/bbbreaking/156368

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, it's closer to a West German (unified Germany) Federal eagle as used by the Bundesgrenschutz.  Here they are side by side of the new Ukrainian unit badge, BGS badge, and Polish eagle.

 

Steve

 

Correct, especially that Polish Eagle has crown (big thing in vexillology), while this from the badge does not. The form may be slightly insipred by German Eagle (or very old form of Silesian Eagle, also used in medieval heraldry here), but most probably is just coincidence- most Ukrainian Air Assault/Air Mobile brigades have the same, "cherry" background and some "wingy" symbolics simply repeat themselves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Air_Assault_Brigade_(Ukraine)

Though of course Russian propagandists and their not-that-inquisitive public will not care and they will simply see another proof of NATO mercenaries.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

After all, Russia would need to have contingency plans to try and counter the intelligence gathering flights NATO is running over the Black Sea in the event that NATO directly enters the shooting war, and so gathering data on what flights are happening, patterns etc. and trying to intercept or disrupt their communications would seems prudent.

That is true, but they most likely get most of what they need from FlightRadar24, and the rest from ground-based radar. At least in terms of raw presence of the non-UKR ISR flights.

On the other hand, you'd have to assume the the sniffers on the Ivans have some ability to figure out what the drones et al are looking for and finding interesting, which FlightRadar and GBR certainly won't tell you.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, it's closer to a West German (unified Germany) Federal eagle as used by the Bundesgrenschutz.  Here they are side by side of the new Ukrainian unit badge, BGS badge, and Polish eagle.

 

Steve

 

Ha, you fell into my trap! The one on the left is historical Polish eagle device which I pasted, and not the Ukrainian 82 Airborne badge. So you see it is similar.

Anyway, may thinking was that it was close enough for the Russian to make up another batch of stories about Polish soldiers fighting for the UKR, this time the regular Polish army. 

[womble]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

y forcing it onto an unsustainable trajectory by creating a decades long arms race the West did successfully create pressures that led to an eventual collapse of the system.  It took a lot of pressures of which military was a central component.  If the West had tapped out and relieved the pressure the Soviet system could have also reduced spending...

In reality, there was never, not at any point, any threat from the West against the USSR outside of the MAD assurance. Russia could have had zero tanks and infantry and been just as safe from invasion as it was with millions of men under arms. The Red Army, once WW2 had ended, was always a weapon of propaganda, mostly existing to convince her own people that there was an external threat ("There must be a threat, or why would we need such a massive army?"). The reality or otherwise of that threat was largely immaterial to how much they had to spend to "keep up" militarily.

I think the systemic failings (structural, economic and moral) of the USSR/Russian Empire (some of which led to unsustainable military spending that might've had greater effect if spent elsewhere, but probably not, because of those failings) have much greater impact on the trajectory of that polity than the spending levels of its rivals/enemies.

[Beleg85]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/36-hours-in-bakhmut-one-units-desperate-battle-to-hold-back-the-russians-72e30f01

Story of one unit fighting in Bakhmut. Pretty chilling.

[The_Capt]

56 minutes ago, womble said:

In reality, there was never, not at any point, any threat from the West against the USSR outside of the MAD assurance. Russia could have had zero tanks and infantry and been just as safe from invasion as it was with millions of men under arms. The Red Army, once WW2 had ended, was always a weapon of propaganda, mostly existing to convince her own people that there was an external threat ("There must be a threat, or why would we need such a massive army?"). The reality or otherwise of that threat was largely immaterial to how much they had to spend to "keep up" militarily.

I think the systemic failings (structural, economic and moral) of the USSR/Russian Empire (some of which led to unsustainable military spending that might've had greater effect if spent elsewhere, but probably not, because of those failings) have much greater impact on the trajectory of that polity than the spending levels of its rivals/enemies.

Well we know that we were not going to invade but I am not sure they did.  If the west was irrelevant then the USSR likely would not have worked so hard or spent so much on threat based capability development.  The Cold War within militaries is a narratives of continual, and very expensive, one-upmanship.  Just take a look at tank development.  If the USSR really did not see western military capability as a threat and was largely a propaganda device, why spend billions on development arcs in the T-72, T-80 and T-90 series?  A whole bunch of cheap T-62s could keep the locals in line and a bazillion of them would make the average insular population convinced they were safe.  This was a template applied across military forces, from aircraft to ships, to nuclear deterrence.

The R&D and development efforts were not going through the motions on either side, they were highly competitive and drove everything from doctrine to intelligence priorities.  I am allergic to the “Soviets sucked and would have collapsed if we did nothing” argument because it is not supported by the facts.  The Soviet empire was a pretty powerful but flawed beast.  The Cold War was not an easy day in history, it took a lot of effort and sacrifice to win.  A lesson we should definitely keep in mind for whatever this is in front of us.

[Hister]

45 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/36-hours-in-bakhmut-one-units-desperate-battle-to-hold-back-the-russians-72e30f01

Story of one unit fighting in Bakhmut. Pretty chilling.

Story is hiding behind a paywall. What is the gist of it?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Ha, you fell into my trap! The one on the left is historical Polish eagle device which I pasted, and not the Ukrainian 82 Airborne badge. So you see it is similar.

Anyway, may thinking was that it was close enough for the Russian to make up another batch of stories about Polish soldiers fighting for the UKR, this time the regular Polish army. 

Doh!  You're correct.  So the Ukrainian badge is nearly the same as the Polish one which itself is probably coming from the same pooled history as the German's eagle came from.

It is interesting that the Ukraiinans would choose something so similar to any country's existing heraldry.  Their unit badges have been, up until now, reasonably unique.  Even 10th Mountain which uses the mountain flower motif as used by many mountain forces (German and Polish included).

Anyhoo, interesting as it is, it's not as interesting as an important Russian ship being towed to port after a smoking accident!  Likely, anyway.

BTW, this answers the question as to why Russia would openly brag about blowing up that USV.  It knew that soon info would slip out that the ship was seriously damaged.  They wanted to "muddy the waters" as much as possible ahead of bad PR.

Steve

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Ha, you fell into my trap! The one on the left is historical Polish eagle device which I pasted, and not the Ukrainian 82 Airborne badge. So you see it is similar.

Anyway, may thinking was that it was close enough for the Russian to make up another batch of stories about Polish soldiers fighting for the UKR, this time the regular Polish army. 

Anyone play any of the Witcher games? Looks a lot like the coat of arms of the Kingdom of Redania.