How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seminole]

55 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

An attack of this scope and size should leave an impression of strength and power.  Why does it stink of desperation and weakness?

How long has it been since we’ve heard about attacks on the energy infrastructure?

Did they just throw in the towel on that?  My sense is that things are largely restored, but only because I don’t see the story anymore.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Air raid alarm again. UAV approaches

May we all watch Putin burn in eternal Hell. 

[kevinkin]

18 minutes ago, Seminole said:

don’t see the story anymore.

Good point. I have not seen anything either. Maybe the infrastructure in too hardened now and Putin thinks killing civilians is a better use of the assets he has.   

[FancyCat]

I think it's going for the Patriot batteries. A huge propaganda win is taking them out. Inversely, I wonder how much info NATO is gonna get from this.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I think it's going for the Patriot batteries. A huge propaganda win is taking them out. Inversely, I wonder how much info NATO is gonna get from this.

I hope UKR has a bunch of fake patriot batteries

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Seminole said:

How long has it been since we’ve heard about attacks on the energy infrastructure?

Did they just throw in the towel on that?

Yes.  As best I can tell they realized that they couldn't do any significant damage because of the inaccuracy of the strikes and that Ukrainian AD thinned them out enough that hopes for hits by volley fire weren't practical.  So they reverted to terror strikes for several months now, with the occasional serious attempt at a military target (very occasional).

The RU nationalists have said very little about this, though they have mentioned it.  What I have seen instead is them blaming the Russian MoD for not trying hard enough or with doing so with sufficient intelligence.  Calls of "treason" and the usual way of deflecting from the truth that they suck and it's not going to get any better.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Air raid alarm again. UAV approaches. 

Preliminary Kyiv was under complex simultaneous attack of cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. For now only Kalibr debris were spotted on streets. Kalibrs entered from southern direction, and something, probably Kinzhal/Iskander, fron northern

This is terrible, of course.  It angers me that our nations refuse to label Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism and be done with it.

Hopefully the damage and casualties are limited to the debris.  As terrible as that is to say, the alternatives are likely much worse.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some interesting kamikaze videos here:

Two things I've not seen before.

1.  A drone hit a BMP-2 and didn't detonate, but also didn't get damaged in any significant way.  It flew off of the BMP-2 and came back at it and detonated the second time.

2.  Drone going against the BTS-4 slowed its attack run very close to its target, adjusted its altitude to get a better angle, then completed the strike.

Steve

[sross112]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

Of course, the unstated problem even with having 'hundreds' of First Line tanks in reserve is ... crews ...

Unless all the crews of all the destroyed tanks survive uninjured ... which is extremely unlikely (with manned tanks, at least, and the issues with 'drone' tanks have been alluded to here already).

How long does it take to train a Tank Crew from scratch? Many months, I expect. Retraining already experience Ukrainian Tank Crews on western equipment seems to have been much quicker.

So those 100s of tanks aren't necessarily as useful as they might seem.

I think that the best way to do this (and to increase available mass of all types) for most countries is by expanding their reserve forces. Personnel costs are one of the major inhibiters to a large standing army, so maybe some sort of system like Finland or a hybrid of it. I think almost all western nations have dropped the conscription/draft, but especially those next to Russia or other belligerents should consider stockpiling equipment and trained reserves.

All across the spectrum should probably do this and not just the army. Pilots, airframes, ships, etc pretty much everything that a country can afford. If it is truly the age of you fight the war with what you have and won't have time to train and produce then some serious consideration is merited. 

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I think that the best way to do this (and to increase available mass of all types) for most countries is by expanding their reserve forces. Personnel costs are one of the major inhibiters to a large standing army, so maybe some sort of system like Finland or a hybrid of it. I think almost all western nations have dropped the conscription/draft, but especially those next to Russia or other belligerents should consider stockpiling equipment and trained reserves.

All across the spectrum should probably do this and not just the army. Pilots, airframes, ships, etc pretty much everything that a country can afford. If it is truly the age of you fight the war with what you have and won't have time to train and produce then some serious consideration is merited. 

This would make for a great research study in the basic economics of the work force. What costs less? A large standing military or a smaller one backed by reserve forces. Reserve forces cost money too. However, allowing them to earn a higher income and benefits in peace time (commercial pilots are a long time example) is not new and a great incentive. I believe this study has been completed by many nations and especially those aligned with the west. It may come down to how quickly a nation needs to respond to a direct threat or meet its obligations with its allies. The US, for better or worse, has decided to have a force that can respond quickly via technology to emerging situations against its interests. The Reserves and National Guard remain key parts of America's defense plans.  A nation like Australia would have more time to "mobilize" and join in with its allies. Israel puts all its youth through basic training, but most go back to the civilian economy. I would be interested in seeing how South Korea and Israel handle the economics. Throw in the 30K US troops stationed in SK into the equation, the math gets even more complex. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Edit: are the trying to saturate a Patriot battery?

It makes you wonder. They put some effort into this one.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[Huba]

Here's a video of missile launches over Kyiv that night (taken from RU Telegram channels, so I guess OPSEC does not apply). I counted 31 missiles launched in just 2 minutes, given the trajectories most seem to be PAC-3 CRI.

https://t.me/dva_majors/15159?single

Edit: and here are some more videos. Indeed the intensity is greater than anything we saw yet:

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Oh, there's official info from the UA side - reportedly 6 Kinzhals were shot down! Along with 3 Iskanders and some other stuff.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Huba

[Der Zeitgeist]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a video of missile launches over Kyiv that night (taken from RU Telegram channels, so I guess OPSEC does not apply). I counted 31 missiles launched in just 2 minutes, given the trajectories most seem to be PAC-3 CRI.

https://t.me/dva_majors/15159?single

Edit: and here are some more videos. Indeed the intensity is greater than anything we saw yet:

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Oh, there's official info from the UA side - reportedly 6 Kinzhals were shot down! Along with 3 Iskanders and some other stuff.

 

 

That certainly explains the Patriot barrage. 10 or so ballistic missiles incoming at the same time, 2-3 interceptors per contact.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[sburke]

Geez Russia really doesn't have any military strategy.  That is a lot of expenditure for what exactly?

[The_MonkeyKing]

Almost looked like Israel footage

Edited May 16, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[FancyCat]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Geez Russia really doesn't have any military strategy.  That is a lot of expenditure for what exactly?

Seeking to take out AD is probably a decent strategy to be fair.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

Let's assume this is accurate information.  Russia launched one of the largest and most diverse attacks on Kyiv so far, and it was soundly defeated.  This is not good news for Russia at all.  Not just this attack, but strategically.

This means that whatever airspace NATO weapons defend will be denied to Russia, provided there's enough systems and ammo in place.  It also confirms, yet again, that if they launch it Ukraine will know about it near instantly no matter if it comes from the air, sea, or ground.  That gives Ukraine all kinds of options that Russia doesn't have if Ukraine should start doing attacks like this on Russian targets.

Not even Russia's hypersonic missiles seem to make a difference.   Man, that has got to hurt their ego.  I also think some accountants in the MoD might have real, natural heart attacks.  6 Kinzahl missiles is about $24m just for the munition alone.  And yet they got downed just as solidly as a Shahed.

Watershed moment?  Could be.  For sure this attack is going to be discussed for a long time to come by all sorts of war and industry experts. 

Steve

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Seeking to take out AD is probably a decent strategy to be fair.

sort of.  Not sure how they expect that to help deal with the coming counter offensive.  As it is, it turns out to have been ineffective and places Russia with another dilemma in terms of having another military capability neutered.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Seeking to take out AD is probably a decent strategy to be fair.

It is unclear what they were targeting, but if they were going after AD systems then they need a different strategy because the current one is not "decent".

As a Ukrainian soldier famously said, it's a good thing the Russians are so stupid.  Even if the attacks have all been the result of a logically derived plans, the results seem to indicate they were objectively ill advised.  AKA stupid.

Imagine if they had not engaged in pointless terror and inaccurate infrastructure strikes.  Or Hell, cut them in half.  Now imagine them taking that stockpile and firing them in the dozens towards multiple divergent targets every hour or so.  They could very well have overwhelmed the number of launchers and AD munitions in Ukraine.

Thankfully they launched attack after attack in small enough numbers and spaced far enough apart that Ukraine could handle them (even if imperfectly).

Steve

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Watershed moment?  Could be.  For sure this attack is going to be discussed for a long time to come by all sorts of war and industry experts. 

Steve

Pro-Russians are claiming something was destroyed, and unless info or footage leaks, I doubt we will know for a good while whether this was successful or not.
 

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

sort of.  Not sure how they expect that to help deal with the coming counter offensive.  As it is, it turns out to have been ineffective and places Russia with another dilemma in terms of having another military capability neutered.

Honestly I expect Russian strategy to keep focus on hitting civilian and infrastructure as part of a strategy and if Russia wants to hit Ukrainian supply lines, I figure they need to clear AD as much as possible as well.

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Pro-Russians are claiming something was destroyed, and unless info or footage leaks, I doubt we will know for a good while whether this was successful or not.
 

Honestly I expect Russian strategy to keep focus on hitting civilian and infrastructure as part of a strategy and if Russia wants to hit Ukrainian supply lines, I figure they need to clear AD as much as possible as well.

Nah I think we already know. and as to Russia hitting Ukrainian supply lines.. well we are 14+ months in with no sign that Russia is remotely capable of that.

[Fenris]

43 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

 

This would be a great result if it's correct.

Btw... Ahh, what exactly is a SuperCum?

[JonS]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Pro-Russians are claiming something was destroyed

unfortunately for them, that 'something' was theirs.

[Fenris]

Cool pic