How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

According to Anna Maria Dyner (one of the leading experts on BY in Poland), who quotes her own sources in Belarus, Lukashenka is suffering from myocarditis(inflammation of the hearth muscle) caused by an infection. He's not going to die (not soon anyway) but has to rest and it will take some time until he's back on his feet.

 

Will get better is a little strong, probably is about as optimistic as it is possible to be about a problem like that. And even if he lives he might never operate at even 25% of his previous effectiveness, for a year, or ever. 

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

Things are becoming hotter and hotter. I'm still struggling with time. But hopefully, it will improve shortly.

I believe you have seen the recent Prig video with the map. Based on what Prig stated, I decided to add a few notes to the map. Although it is Prig, it is really interesting, and I believe it will help you understand what is going on in the Bakhmut area.

It can be a little confusing and crammed at times, but if you examine each block carefully, it should be straightforward enough.

Number 1

Number 2

Number 3

Number 4

I have a few comments but due to lack of time I will post them later.

This has to be one of the best three posts on the whole thread!

5 hours ago, BornGinger said:

That sounds like one of those conspiracy theories some individuals make up as a way to find an answer to why certain things has happened.

Are there any hard facts to prove that theory or did someone hear it from someone who had read it on a website?

All you have to do is look at the initial Russian war plan. The entire concept was to take Kyiv before the Ukrainians could get organized. This was THEORETICALLY possible starting a hundred miles from Kyiv. Putin had spent most of the previous decade looking at what it would take to do it starting from northeast of Kharkiv, and not even his optimistic excuse for math worked.

Steve disagrees...

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

My mantra has long been that the only way to understand the strategy of the various players in this saga is to accept that their goal is less about winning in Ukraine than it is about winning in Moscow. 

I started saying that the best part of a year ago.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

And of course they managed to route the Russians and seize the position without pushing in anyway. Perhaps these experienced soldiers have learned that it isn't necessary or worthwhile to take that sort of risk. There appear to be other, less dangerous ways of making it untenable for the enemy to remain in a fortified position like that.

I agree. Self preservation, economy of force and just hoping the enemy surrenders before you have to close assault. That might not be in the field manuals, but it makes sense under a lot of tactical situations. 

[Centurian52]

On 5/12/2023 at 9:12 PM, chuckdyke said:

Their C2 were on horseback and runners. They did their calculations with Roman Numerals. Still the Russian Army can't equal them in administration.

 

Oh great, as if I wasn't subscribed to enough military history channels already 

[akd]

Battle for position “Cyclops,” part 5:

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

There's a new RUSI article about the Storm Shadow. It is rather short, the most important excerpt below:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/putting-russias-army-shadow-storm

 

Good summary.  I hadn't thought about the targeting complexities for Russian AD in this way.  They have already proven themselves unable to intercept a variety of ranged weapons launched from Ukraine, so Storm Shadow makes it even worse.  The decoy drones only screw things up further as it is now possible for Ukraine to overwhelm Russia's AD in a particular sector at a time of their choosing.

The problem Russia has always had is with counter measures.  It has been able to adapt, to a degree, to Ukraine's precision capabilities, but only at great cost to effectiveness.  Well dug in Ukrainians with good ISR?  Blast them with tons of artillery then assault them in Human waves.  Javelin and NLAW?  Keep vehicles back behind the lines and rush them forward, pop off some shots, then rush them back to cover.  GMLRS?  Move everything further back or harden the crap out of it.  Leaky communications?  Go back to hardwire or do without.  So on and so forth.

None of these responses by Russia are particularly good and they have inherent limitations.  Specific to long range precision guided weapons, how far back can logistics be positioned before they cross the line from inefficient to ineffective?  With Storm Shadow the entire southern theater is now open for business.  Because it is impossible for Russia to do point to point "just in time" deliveries, it will have to leave its logistics pretty much as it is today and that's a double problem because a) Ukraine probably knows where they are and b) now they can hit them. 

The people arguing about what model of what tank should be sent really don't get it.  A 100 Leopard 2s would not make a noticeable difference.  100 Storm Shadows, on the other hand, very much have that potential.  And they cost a fraction of a tank to make, deploy, and maintain.

Steve

[kevinkin]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-patriot-missile-russia-hypersonic/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

The Ukrainian air defenders fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Russian missile, demonstrating how quickly they have become adept at using the powerful system, one official said.

This will be interesting to get more info on. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

According to Anna Maria Dyner (one of the leading experts on BY in Poland), who quotes her own sources in Belarus, Lukashenka is suffering from myocarditis(inflammation of the hearth muscle) caused by an infection. He's not going to die (not soon anyway) but has to rest and it will take some time until he's back on his feet.

 

So MAYBE the Belarus crisis is not going to happen in the immediate couple of months, maybe not.  The cause of the infection is as important as how bad the damage from the infection.  Recently had some experience with a family member about this.  Near death from an infection, got the infection under control, found the cause and "palliative care" was on the table.  Fortunately, exploratory surgery showed the cause hadn't gone over the cliff yet and corrective surgery was an option.

My point here is that Luka is going to die at some point and it still could be quite soon.  Whenever it happens the scenarios we've been discussing still apply.  The regime transition could be very messy and bad for Putin.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

Battle for position “Cyclops,” part 5:

 

Holy crap!  There was at least a dozen guys in that one bunker.  That is just nuts as they couldn't engage with more than a couple of guys at once.

This unit seems to have been at least moderately competent.  They organized themselves (a little) before running away from the bunker.  A couple of times someone covered their retreat in the beginning when it might have mattered.  They moved faster than the light and medium mortars (presumably) could put down fire and did not abandoned a wounded guy.  A couple of drone bombers could have ruined things for the last cluster that was slowed down by a wounded comrade.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Things are becoming hotter and hotter. I'm still struggling with time. But hopefully, it will improve shortly.

I believe you have seen the recent Prig video with the map. Based on what Prig stated, I decided to add a few notes to the map. Although it is Prig, it is really interesting, and I believe it will help you understand what is going on in the Bakhmut area.

It can be a little confusing and crammed at times, but if you examine each block carefully, it should be straightforward enough.

Number 1

Number 2

Number 3

Number 4

I have a few comments but due to lack of time I will post them later.

Thanks for returning to post this!  The most thorough analysis of what could come from a continued Ukrainian counter offensive.  The big question is if they intend to push that hard here or just tie up Russian forces for a while until the main counter attack starts.  Could be easier going in the Bakhmut area if Russia decides to dilute forces in the area in order to shore up other sectors.

Steve

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, akd said:

93rd Mech Bde tanks counterattacking in Bakhmut.  Looks like they are using mix of WP and HE:

 

This is a cut scene of longer video for April

[Centurian52]

On 5/13/2023 at 11:31 AM, DesertFox said:

This might be a hint for the black sea fleet:

 

 

I get the feeling that, once the war is over, these missiles are going to to be very popular on the export market. "The missile that sunk the Moskva" is one hell of a trademark

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, Fenris said:

Browsing the twitters this morning, I'm getting the sense there's an uptick in ammo and logistics strikes going on.

Quite a few small ones yesterday and a big one somewhere in Luhansk in the past few hours apparently.

HIMARSes work almost each day. Most of targets - heavy industrialized areas in Luhansk oblast - Kadiivka, Pervomaisk. Three days ago Svitlodarsk was hit. I don't write about this, because this is usual work and not always visible results can be seen. Some of them became knowingly since several weeks. For example in late March there was a HIMARS strike on building in Donetsk, presumably using by military. Only now in May there were issued memorial photos of killed in this strile servicemen - 12 persons. This was logistic and supply HQ of Internal Troops Corps (ITC) of DPR. Among victims- the chief of logistic of ITC and several high-ranked executive officers    

 

 

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

They are still doing most of this with improvised ammunition. I can see large improvements when purpose built munitions get deployed in quantity. In particular a round that dispersed dime to quarter sized hunks of thermite seems like it would be rather useful. Something more or less guaranteed to set a at least  couple of square meters on fire long enough to light off anything flammable.

R18 or Matrice or other heavy copter drones, capable to lift more than 1-2 grenades are in use more specialized units with own specific of work. TERRA is mostly air-recons, so operate with most mass drones of "zero-line" - Mavics

[kevinkin]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-patriot-missile-russia-hypersonic/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

The Ukrainian air defenders fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Russian missile, demonstrating how quickly they have become adept at using the powerful system, one official said.

This will be interesting to get more info on. 

[Thomm]

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1658002171785273347

LOL

[kevinkin]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-eroded-ground-forces-big-problems-us-general-cavoli-ukraine-1800177

At West Point they teach how to defeat the enemy. But, perhaps they need to have a few classroom hours devoted to how to tell when an enemy is defeated. Not saying that's exactly the case with Russia in May 2023. But this general seems to be all over the place. 

"The Russian military's demise in Ukraine is something that has to be studied very closely," the general said. "It has not been even. It's very easy to look and to think that the Russian military has collapsed, or is in dire trouble. But in fact, it's been uneven. The ground forces are greatly eroded, they have run into big problems. And they've lost a lot of people, they've lost a lot of equipment. On the other hand, they've also ingested a lot of people. And you know, the Russian army, the ground force, today is bigger than it was at the beginning of this conflict. So, it still exists. The air force has lost less than 100 fighters and bombers. They have about 1,000 remaining. The navy has lost almost nothing, cyber has lost nothing, space lost nothing. So really, when we talk about the Russian military, we have to study it across all domains. And we have to be ready to deal with the Russian military into the future in all domains.

I guess I will chalk this up the audience he was addressing in Estonia. Keep your eye on the ball etc. etc..  

[kevinkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/ukraine-can-defeat-russia-by-end-of-year-with-western-help-zelenskiy-says

Zelenskiy’s adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said

“It will be a hot spring-summer season. We will see catastrophic events befall the Russian army. It will be forced to leave the occupied territories very quickly,” he predicted. Asked when this might happen, he replied: “We don’t hint at anything. But there are only 17 days left until summer.”

Um, doesn't summer start on Jun 21? Maybe hinting at something big around Jun 1? 
 

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/TomMostlyZen/status/1658081218150162433?t=VoCu1KCGCIvbsJ576N5Myg&s=19

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[The_MonkeyKing]

Seems there is going to be >100 AMX-10RC in Ukraine

[womble]

30 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

R18 or Matrice or other heavy copter drones, capable to lift more than 1-2 grenades are in use more specialized units with own specific of work. TERRA is mostly air-recons, so operate with most mass drones of "zero-line" - Mavics

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61482305

Have a look at the "heavy lift drone" bit ¬70kg payload. How long is that going to be relegated to humping supplies between friendly locations? The C-130 is a cargo plane, and we all know what kind of gunship it can get varied into...

 

[Centurian52]

On 5/14/2023 at 8:33 AM, Haiduk said:

Russians have recovered from sudden UKR strikes and moved additional reservers

If my hypothesis that these are distraction attacks in preparation for the main offensive is correct, then this is exactly the result the Ukrainians were hoping for. The more troops Russia sends this way, the easier the real offensive will be.

[Vanir Ausf B]

[Haiduk]

38 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-patriot-missile-russia-hypersonic/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

The Ukrainian air defenders fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Russian missile, demonstrating how quickly they have become adept at using the powerful system, one official said.

This will be interesting to get more info on. 

Somebody already posted this or similar article. I'm as eyewitnesses (hm.... better to say "ear-witnesses  ) could say talks about "fired multiple missiles" is not true, because there was heard only triple explosion - first BOOM and than after several seconds more loud double BOOO-BOOM. If Patriot launced for example 10 missiles, we would have heard 11 expliosions at least. I suppose two missiles were launched.   

[TheVulture]

25 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Um, doesn't summer start on Jun 21? Maybe hinting at something big around Jun 1? 
 

Depends on your definitions I guess.  June 21st is the longest day of the year,  Walsingham known as midsummer's day.  Some people consider it the start of summer. Some people consider June 1st as the start of summer.  

Australians have some crazy ideas about when summer starts

Of course any decision about where to draw the exact dividing line between seasons is completely arbitrary since the conceptn of seasons is vague, subjective and climate dependent.