How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, zinz said:

Things are certainly heating up. 

The decline of Ukrainian aviation activity is also very visible 

That's very useful, thanks!  Of course the Ukraine MoD information has some issues, it is consistent and therefore a good tool for observing trends.

It would appear they are holding back their air activities, which makes sense as for the most part it is tactical in support of ground ops.  We're not at that stage yet.

They are also likely holding back their air to conduct massed use of new long ranged munitions.  My assumption is nearly all of this is being saved up for the main effort and Ukraine isn't ready to show where that is.

I am very curious if Ukraine is going to do an extended air/artillery offensive ahead of significant ground activity (as they did last year) or if they are going to instead go for a more-or-less simultaneous shock effect.  Each has pros and cons, but given the state of Russia's forces I think both are viable.  Normally the shock effect isn't a good idea if the defender is properly prepared and motivated to fight, which certainly isn't the case as far as we can tell.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

 

 

 

First rule for Thomas C. Theiner:

If you're following him on Twitter, click "unfollow".

Heh.  Thanks for the reminder.  When this was first posted I remembered we've seen his stuff here, but couldn't remember if he's on the Good or Bad list.  I thought Bad, but then I thought I was confusing him with Trent The Tyreman (Tireman for us Yanks)

Steve

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Wow, Long Lefty comes out swinging after a long nap.  

It is called Red Teaming and we have residents who fulfill that function - some with more enthusiasm than others.  I think JonS’s point is that the RA is severely understaffed with professionals of any stripe because they all “gots killt” and Russia has not been able to come close to effectively generate replacements.

Did they have enough officers for this even before they started getting killed off? I suppose it's fine to have the officers doing the jobs traditionally assigned to NCOs in the west (doesn't matter what we call the person doing the job, so long as the job gets done). But you need correspondingly more officers. You need as many officers as a western unit has officers + NCOs.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Sure. That could work.

So, do the Russians have 5-8 officers in each of their platoons, filling the roles that in other armies would be filled by the (commissioned) platoon commander and the (non-commissioned) platoon 2-ic, section/squad leaders, and their assistants?

No, because Russians actually do have NCOs commanding squads per TOE (sergeants). My point was not about the Russian actual TOE, but more generally, that the nominal rank of the man does not imply if he is good for a particular job outside of the context of his army. In Wehrmacht platoons were commanded by Leutnant officers or Feldwebel NCOs - so what? But of course the function must be assigned to someone.  Do you think RUS squads command themselves? 

I think you might have picked the wrong level to show where RUS army really lacks NCOs in the sense of the function being not exactly unfulfilled, but collapsed with other functions and thrown at the men who already has too much to do. Platoon is a platoon, but according to our guys, Russians have too few men in the staff functions at the battalion and brigade level. And the missing people are indeed professional NCOs who in NATO armies support junior staff officers, who in Russian army have to do all those jobs themselves. Which negatively impacts quality of staff work.

PS. Russians do not have a function named assistant squad leader, but I do not think it matters. There are 6 dismounts in full size squad, there is no reason to think that the man commanding them would be overwhelmed.

PPS. This is about full TOE comparison. At this moment in the war a bigger problem for Russians is that their junior leaders have to a large extent been killed off. But my point stands, as having officer or NCO rank does not make one more or less bullet resistant.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have not seen tanks do very well against artillery throughout this war.  If the enemy drops a 152/155 round within about 10m (or so) things don't work out so well for the tank.  At least for Soviet type tanks.  Which means effectively they aren't any better than SPGs.

Steve

On the other hand, PzH 2000 is praised for the thicker armour than other SPGs, which seems to make an appreciable difference to Ukrainians. So it stands to reason, that an MBT's armour would do better still. 

[Huba]

Looks like with the things starting to move again, we are back to Rybar maps being interesting. Latest ones shows UA gains near the water reservoir that was mentioned in latest RU MoD announcement. Overall, the Bakhmut salient is looking less and less salienty by the hour.

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

-"Ukraine’s long-anticipated push should be understood as a rolling “spring-summer campaign” against an entrenched and powerful adversary" that will proceed in stages

An excellent description of what I'm personally expecting.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

I think this because all the brigades are equipped with wheeled armored vehicles (Maxxpro, BTR-3, Varta, Kozak-2 etc). They seem to favor maneuverability and seem to me (from what I know) rather light in tanks (a simple company) and in artillery (a battalion, often towed (D-30, 120mm mortar etc) to have a real frontal assault role on fortified positions

My inference from the same facts was exactly the opposite, that they are using all those wheeled vehicles as battle taxis and therefore they will be used dismounted for the breaching phase of the operation. We will see.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, paxromana said:

That's what did the East Romans in for the next couple of centuries after the disaster at Adrianople. Not enough experienced soldiers left to be a cadre.

Ho boi  It was more complicated than that, no? But Hold on, let me get a firm grasp of...this...derailment...lever-

Who's our resident Roman History person, is it @billbindc? 

KaChunk!

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Latest ones shows UA gains near the water reservoir that was mentioned in latest RU MoD announcement. Overall, the Bakhmut salient is looking less and less salienty by the hour.

Assuming that attack is aimed at making Russians react and commit reserves before the big UKR push in the south, northern flank over Bachmut is ideal for this. If the Ukrainians break through to Paraskoivka, then they can go everywhere - south hook to cut off Russians in Bachmut, north to Sloviansk to hit the RUS in the Sloviansk direction from behind, north east to Soledar to start cutting off the Sloviansk force in a cauldron. The Russians will not be able to not commit in the face of such danger.

[Kinophile]

To paraphrase a famous, imperialist bigot who did absolutely no favours for my people but holy crap could he write:

Quote

This is not the start,

This is not even the beginning of the start,

This is just perhaps the start of the beginning...

 

[DesertFox]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh.  Thanks for the reminder.  When this was first posted I remembered we've seen his stuff here, but couldn't remember if he's on the Good or Bad list.  I thought Bad, but then I thought I was confusing him with Trent The Tyreman (Tireman for us Yanks)

Steve

He might have gotten some of his figures mixed up 

5km is an area for a Mech-Rgt. in 1st Echelon going in 2 Btl "up" in good old soviet style. Very unlikely the other 17 Brigades get funneled though this corridor also and wait behind in a column.

Good old FM 100-2-1 gives you all the details about the warpac stuff. See page 75, section 5-23.

The Soviet Army: Operations and Tactics (fas.org)

[Centurian52]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

Looks like with the things starting to move again, we are back to Rybar maps being interesting. Latest ones shows UA gains near the water reservoir that was mentioned in latest RU MoD announcement. Overall, the Bakhmut salient is looking less and less salienty by the hour.

 

I was hoping to see more activity today. This is enough to convince me that the activity of the last three days was not just a few opportunistic bites. Something bigger and more sustained is happening. I don't think it's the main offensive yet. But if it pulls in Russian reinforcements, maybe even convinces the Russians that it is the main offensive, then it's significant. At the very least, I'm loving the panic it seems to be causing in the Russian information space.

[kevinkin]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/why-putin-needs-wagner

Essay on the relationship. 

[FancyCat]

Well, well right on time.

 

[Centurian52]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Well, well right on time.

 

Nice! Does anyone know what these were? That looks like a lot of smoke, so I'm assuming they hit something flammable. Ammo dumps? Fuel depots?

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Centurian52 said:

Nice! Does anyone know what these were? That looks like a lot of smoke, so I'm assuming they hit something flammable. Ammo dumps? Fuel depots?

Reportedly a fuel depot. Some prominent RU telegrams suggest that it was a cruise missile, though no evidence at this point, and IMO unlikely, given the distance from the front line.

 

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Well, well right on time.

Maybe someone got a new toy or it is just the good old smoking accident...

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

IMO unlikely, given the distance from the front line.

 

MMMM....

Edited May 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[sross112]

6 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is a popular opinion coming from the active US or UK military personnel, but people who are more familiar with the post-Soviet system (or other systems) are sceptical of it.

Actually, if a necessary function in the unit is taken care of, it does not matter if the person doing it is called an officer, NCO, warrant officer or however you name him. It is just that in the US/UK system the NCO is someone who his appointed for his post for a long time and may generate lots of experience, while a junior officer is someone who does this function briefly and then in a relatively short time goes on to more senior things. But this is just a quirk of the military career path adopted in some (maybe most) Western militaries - equally well one could have the same job fulfilled by professional junior officers of long standing.

Yep, whether it is a NCO or an officer who fills the position, it is the first line leadership. I understand that there are different systems used by different armies, but it is the general lack of good first line leaders that I was pointing out. The main qualifier I am using is "good". They certainly have some sort of leader, but they are missing the experienced or trained to professional standards type of leadership that comes with what we in the west would call the NCO corps. 

The most junior Corporal should have security set, crew served weapons placed, and entrenching tools working overtime in the first five minutes of setting foot in those trenches. Within a couple days you should see multiple fighting positions with overhead cover, firing steps, maybe some obstacles and cleared fields of fire, and grenade sumps all over to negate or at least minimize the drone bombing effects. I don't think it is because they are lazy, I believe the mobiks don't have a clue and there is no leadership at the first or even second line level making it happen.  

There have been those complaint videos from units saying they were just dropped off and forgotten about. It seems like that might be the norm in a lot of places. Maybe it is 30 guys mobilized, vote on a leader, get gear issued, and then dropped off on the front line with a "good luck and good by" from the higher ups. Pretty morbid and wasteful on the RA side if that is how it is being done. It's a good thing for the UA so I hope that is how it is and how it stays, but on a human level it is almost unconscionable. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Reportedly a fuel depot. Some prominent RU telegrams suggest that it was a cruise missile, though no evidence at this point, and IMO unlikely, given the distance from the front line.

 

Very few other systems could hit that. Especially given the air defense. I see a storm shadow as a possibility

[danfrodo]

A good day for UKR so far it seems.  RU falling back a little and lots of wet pants for their trolls.  I hope their nasty brutish mothers can get them washed so they don't run out of clean panties (basing this on videos of nasty, brutish RU mothers, which I know is unfair).

Seems the Bakhmut attacks are at least a little bigger than local commanders operating opportunistically.  I am thinking about what UKR is gaining so far:

1.  some insight into how RU will respond to losing ground in local attacks 

2.  decreasing pressure on bakhmut forces and opening supply roads

3.  Morale and political -- RU might never finish taking Bakhmut, after all the horrific losses for RU and the pain UKR has suffered there.  I suspect in RU propaganda Bakhmut will disappear despite RU acting like they were taking Berlin.  Hopefully lots of RU troops will hear of defeats and become more likely to run away or surrender.

4.  Huge boost for UKR confidence as other troops see victories

Good times for the moment.  Of course, I am still terrified of all those ditches RU dug (kidding).  Could run into some very tough RU units but there's got to be lots of very weak areas also.

[photon]

I wonder what platform the Ukranians will launch (are launching?) the Storm Shadow from? Have they adapted it to their Soviet platforms like the HARM?

[BornGinger]

https://nitter.hu/WarFrontline/status/1654897347657080833#m

Maybe this one has been posted already. I don't know if it's something that happened or a way to troll the Russian troll factory.

Edited May 12, 2023 by BornGinger

[DesertFox]

More toys to play around with.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1657060299847901185?s=20