How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Interesting take from one of the most useful sources of the whole war.

One difference is the confidence and jumpiness of the Russian fanbois is badly shaken compared to last Fall.  They could very well be overreacting because they are, in fact, petrified of what is to come.

On the other hand, we should anticipate that this is the sort of thing we'll look back on after the counter offensive is clearly underway and say "ok, that was when it started".  We just don't know if that time is now, darn it all.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I think their effect will mostly be psychological, considering the UK will (probably) not hand over a lot of these. But the Russians don't know that. Does Ukraine have a dozen, 50, 100? They can't tell, and they have to assume it's as many as Ukraine needs to turn every logistics node and ammo depot in the occupied territory into "cotton", as the Ukrainians say.

We will probably see a couple of highly visible attacks on a few important targets. Impressive mushroom clouds that look cool/scary on social media. The Russians will have to react to that by pulling back certain assets and dispersing depots and logistics. The Ukrainians will reap the benefits of reduced Russian supply on the frontline.

The overall effect will probably be similar to what HIMARS achieved, just on a deeper level. 

The big question I'm sure everybody in the British MoD is wondering is... what Russia air defenses doing?  So far Russia's highly touted air defense network hasn't done so well against Ukrainian drone and missile strikes.  Very little of Ukraine's deep strike capabilities, thus far, have been shot out of the air.  Even when they tried really, really, really hard as they did at Kherson.  Fingers crossed that it will be largely inept against Storm Shadow as well.

Steve

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Ukraine decides to do a breakthrough/exploitation type attack, which is the one I favor, they will probably put 20k into the initial breakthrough (existing units plus new) and have the bulk of the remaining available units follow for exploitation.  Subtracting some for Donbas, that's probably another 30k available for exploitation.

I think this is entirely sufficient to take back half of the south provided they get down to Melitopol in good shape and attacks along the Dnepr from south and north obligate Russians to retreat.  If the latter doesn't happen, well, things will get very interesting.  Ukraine might not be able to take back as much territory, but will destroy some sizeable Russian forces.

Steve

We already know by conception/doctrine that at least 9 brigades will be in reserve for exploitation (Offensive Guards Brigade). I see them as a modern soviet cavalry/mechanized corps/groups (operationaly speaking)

Edited May 12, 2023 by Taranis

[Battlefront.com]

Backing up what Dimitri pointed out, for sure the Russians are freaking out as if the whole counter offensive is underway right now.  Wouldn't it be funny if all Ukraine is doing right now is a little bit of recon in force and to Russia it seems like Barbarossa?

Well, Russian freakout aside, I think I'm pretty comfortable concluding that the counter attack in and around Bakhmut is not a local action by 3rd Assault Brigade.  As I have theorized earlier, this is part of something bigger.  I'm now fine with removing the last bits of doubts I might have had

 

1.  Ukraine General Staff made an announcement of striking critical logistics targets behind the lines.  This appears to be an unusually large number of such strikes, but I could be mistaken:

Quote

Units of Ukraine’s Rocket Forces and Artillery struck eight Russian command posts, 13 areas where Russian military personnel and equipment were concentrated, an ammunition storage point, a fuel and lubricant storage point, five field artillery units, an anti-aircraft defence system, and two other critical targets. 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/11/7401763/

2.  Mood of the Russians defending the Dnepr line is, well, not good:

Quote

Quote: "But their panic is visible and consists in the fact that they do not know from which direction to expect the maximum force of the attack, and that is why they are dispersing their efforts both on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/11/7401793/

3.  Our pal Dugin is saying the counter offensive has started and Russia should declare war on Ukraine immediately, enact general mobilization, and use nukes:

4.  Prig certainly thinks things are in full motion, but then again he's definitely in the eye of at least some form of storm right now:

Quote

On his social media channels, Prigozhin accused Zelenskyy of lying when he said in a media interview that Ukraine needed more time before it could carry out a counteroffensive. "Zelensky is lying," Prigozhin said, according to a CNN translation. "The counteroffensive is in full swing."

https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-group-prigozhin-zelenskyy-ukraine-counteroffensive-full-swing-2023-5

 

5.  ISW's May 11th report does not conclude something beyond a local counter attack is happening at the moment, however it's assessment is consistent with the other information we've been looking at.  It documented a second tactical collapse of Russian positions to the southwest of Bakhmut which Wagner had to divert forces to plug up.  The totality of which is tipping Wagner over onto the defensive (not quite yet, but headed there).

Quote

Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

...

The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there

...

Successful localized Ukrainian counterattacks have likely constrained Russian offensive efforts in Bakhmut as of May 11. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces conducted 15 ground attacks in Bakhmut and near Stupochky (13km southwest of Bakhmut), a notable decrease in the number of reported Russian ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.[29] A Russian milblogger described the Stupochky assault as risky.[30] Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian 4th and 374th Motorized Rifle brigades (2nd Army Corps) for abandoning their positions northwest of Klishchiivka during Ukrainian counterattacks and said that Wagner Group forces took up the brigades’ former positions to prevent deep penetration of Russian lines, likely depriving Wagner forces of personnel that could otherwise have been allocated to offensive operations in Bakhmut.

6.  Take it for what it's worth, mainstream media is also putting out some info that things are underway.  CNN interviewed some military officials and they say "shaping operations" are underway now:

Quote

Ukrainian forces have begun “shaping” operations in advance of a highly-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, a senior US military official and senior Western official tell CNN.

Shaping involves striking targets such as weapons depots, command centers and armor and artillery systems to prepare the battlefield for advancing forces. It's a standard tactic made prior to major combined operations.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-12-23/h_eb36c308bc1c03f6f45bcbe75cc3b3d5

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some nice combat footage supposedly from 3rd Assault Brigade.  Nearly 3 minutes of unedited footage WITH sound, not music:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13evhgs/landing_and_storming_of_russian_positions_by/

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

I'm wondering if Ukraine prefers to start with a series of small, limited ambition counterattacks, not so much to take actual ground but to simply train their new units in practice? A bit like tutorial missions in a game.

They received so much new kit and raised so many new units that it would probably be good for both individual tank crews, mech infantry, logistics, repair units, etc. to get some training against light opposition.

And why not retake Bakhmut at the same time? Russian units there must be really worn down, and the morale boost of retaking the town in a few weeks after Russians spending all winter taking it would be great.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Pete Wenman]

This made me smile, but is also perhaps a little cautionary.

 

Comments are worth a read as well

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Pete Wenman

[Kinophile]

Ffs. Skinny white arrows of utter speculation and daydreaming. 

 

 

[Fenris]

Could well be.  Zoom the map out just a bit and those arrows are tiny.

 

Part 4 of the "Cyclops" trenchline footage was just released. Note the 18+ rating (thankfully it's not overly gruesome)

 

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Fenris

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Could well be.  Zoom the map out just a bit and those arrows are tiny.

... and also represent the distance its taken Russia 9 or more months to advance through.

While Bakhmut isn't objectively important, it would be nice to see a repeat of Izium where months of Russia's slow, hard-won gains at huge cost are rolled back in days to Ukraine.

[Fenris]

Definitely.  The once "mighty" russian army reduced to a war of inches, for months on end.  If UKR can roll them up with several units with 2-3 tanks each it would be a real punch in the face.

Fingers crossed they can pull it off.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some nice combat footage supposedly from 3rd Assault Brigade.  Nearly 3 minutes of unedited footage WITH sound, not music:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13evhgs/landing_and_storming_of_russian_positions_by/

Steve

I wonder if it's combat footage or from training. We don't see any Russian positions or even hear the crack of incoming fire. Also the guys seem a bit too relaxed?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like Russians in some units have critical lack of artillery, probably in motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops, so old tanks are given to them instead artillery. 

Also, while their armour is old, it is thicker than SPGs. They must be more resistant to counterbattery.

Actually, in the era of counterbattery fire which is everywhere  and arrives accurately in minutes having MBT level protection on your indirect fire assets would be very useful. This may be an interesting lesson from this conflict for the future.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, womble said:

Given the "training methods" traditional to the RA, and the, ahem, "accelerated timescale", there's probably little or no cultivation of the attitudes that lead to the development, once deployed to unit, of the "bond between squadmates" that remains the primary motivation to fight of an infantryman. And there's no leadership at the low level with the competence to compensate.

I doubt it, It did not work like that in WW2 - all literature from the period references the strong camaraderie bonds between Red Army soldiers forged at the front, to the extent that it probably is not entirely made up. And it is the common participation in the dangers and deprivations of the actual fighting which is mentioned in the memoirs as the source of the bond, rather than anything happening during the training.  So  it must be something capable of spontaneously arising, at least for the people sharing the typical Russian mentality of that time.

On the other hand, it was reported that the US soldiers struggled psychologically to fit in units in which they had not been training, but arrived as replacements. Also, Americans were recorded by the Germans as not bonding well with other Americans at the PoW camps (relatively to other nations). So there may be more general psychological issues impacting this.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

We already know by conception/doctrine that at least 9 brigades will be in reserve for exploitation (Offensive Guards Brigade). I see them as a modern soviet cavalry/mechanized corps/groups (operationaly speaking)

Are you sure? I thought it is the other way round -I read the Offensive Guards are more of infantry type organisations, so more likely to be used in the breakthrough rather than exploitation.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, sross112 said:

What I read from it is a lack of professional first line leadership (NCOs).

This is a popular opinion coming from the active US or UK military personnel, but people who are more familiar with the post-Soviet system (or other systems) are sceptical of it.

Actually, if a necessary function in the unit is taken care of, it does not matter if the person doing it is called an officer, NCO, warrant officer or however you name him. It is just that in the US/UK system the NCO is someone who his appointed for his post for a long time and may generate lots of experience, while a junior officer is someone who does this function briefly and then in a relatively short time goes on to more senior things. But this is just a quirk of the military career path adopted in some (maybe most) Western militaries - equally well one could have the same job fulfilled by professional junior officers of long standing.

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Actually, if a necessary function in the unit is taken care of, it does not matter if the person doing it is called an officer, NCO, warrant officer or however you name him. It is just that in the US/UK system the NCO is someone who his appointed for his post for a long time and may generate lots of experience, while a junior officer is someone who does this function briefly and then in a relatively short time goes on to more senior things. But this is just a quirk of the military career path adopted in some (maybe most) Western militaries - equally well one could have the same job fulfilled by professional junior officers of long standing.

Sure. That could work.

So, do the Russians have 5-8 officers in each of their platoons, filling the roles that in other armies would be filled by the (commissioned) platoon commander and the (non-commissioned) platoon 2-ic, section/squad leaders, and their assistants?

[Artkin]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Well here is one guys take. And he is a former Italian army officer with deep Ukrainian connections.

This guy must be smoking it. 

Put a single brigade of troops on a 5km wide map. Your eyes will water with how many items are on the map. Now add the support elements. The game will never run. 

Its just nonsense. Doesnt even deserve a written out post. 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The big question I'm sure everybody in the British MoD is wondering is... what Russia air defenses doing?  So far Russia's highly touted air defense network hasn't done so well against Ukrainian drone and missile strikes.  Very little of Ukraine's deep strike capabilities, thus far, have been shot out of the air.  Even when they tried really, really, really hard as they did at Kherson.  Fingers crossed that it will be largely inept against Storm Shadow as well.

Steve

Just another sign in a very long list - troop quality, “no ammo for Prig”/noted drops in RA indirect fire, falling ATGM stocks, and now faltering AD.  I am sure it will be blindingly obvious in hindsight - the RA is eroded and prime for operational collapse.  I suspect the UA has been slowly waging corrosive warfare all winter while everyone was watching Bakhmut.  Little bites and nibbles add up especially for stuff Russia cannot built back.

Given some of the force numbers being tossed around I am beginning to think we might actually see an offensive we recognize in the next while - which will no doubt make the tank nuts happy; however, just remember that it took months of precision deep strike shaping to allow for it.

I avoid predictions but I am confident we will at least have a decent chance of understanding what we are looking at when it happens.

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, Artkin said:

This guy must be smoking it. 

Put a single brigade of troops on a 5km wide map. Your eyes will water with how many items are on the map. Now add the support elements. The game will never run. 

Its just nonsense. Doesnt even deserve a written out post. 

However it is just about right if you want to drive about 150kms deep, cut a strategic land bridge, hold on the left and exploit on the right so your opponent runs back to defensive positions at a geographic bottleneck.  And have enough gas in the tank to do c-moves, plug holes or exploitation.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Could well be.  Zoom the map out just a bit and those arrows are tiny.

 

Part 4 of the "Cyclops" trenchline footage was just released. Note the 18+ rating (thankfully it's not overly gruesome)

Note how at 8:40 drone operator used granade to open the bunker. Clear example of direct support for assault squad. Petty intense shots of face of Muscovite defender, too. It seems most of Russians escaped; body of Ukrainian sodier killed in back trench is there whole time, but position was taken.

[Fenris]

It's a little surprising to me that that many survived and were able to get away, in the open, looking relatively unscathed (probably not in the best shape) .  Would have been nice if the UKR men could have had some support from the flank, it looked like everything was going in the straight line following the trench.  A tough job.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Fenris

[DesertFox]

Seems like something is moving...

 

 

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1656894839710179328?s=20

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Sure. That could work.

So, do the Russians have 5-8 officers in each of their platoons, filling the roles that in other armies would be filled by the (commissioned) platoon commander and the (non-commissioned) platoon 2-ic, section/squad leaders, and their assistants?

Cripes, do you absolutely HAVE to be a supercilious ***, at all times?

This is an incredibly interesting point one of our relatively new and well-read Polish community members has raised here, inviting discussion and disagreement. But nope, as always, Jon is going to quash it right out of the gate. Because all further discussion must take a back seat to his know-it-all-seen-it-all sarcasm.  There are other ways to debate, you know, without being a putz.

...Also, how's your Polish mate? Nowhere near as good as 'Mac's' English.

[yes, I'm still lurking here every couple days, just fed up with all the downtalking here from the cool kids. And feel free to suspend me Steve, I don't give a rats]

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Cripes, do you absolutely HAVE to be a supercilious ***, at all times?

This is an incredibly interesting point one of our relatively new and well-read Polish community members has raised here, inviting discussion and disagreement. But nope, as always, Jon is going to quash it right out of the gate. Because all further discussion must take a back seat to his know-it-all-seen-it-all sarcasm.  There are other ways to debate, you know, without being a putz.

...Also, how's your Polish mate? Nowhere near as good as 'Mac's' English.

[yes, I'm still lurking here every couple days, just fed up with all the downtalking here from the cool kids. And feel free to suspend me Steve, I don't give a rats]

Wow, Long Lefty comes out swinging after a long nap.  

It is called Red Teaming and we have residents who fulfill that function - some with more enthusiasm than others.  I think JonS’s point is that the RA is severely understaffed with professionals of any stripe because they all “gots killt” and Russia has not been able to come close to effectively generate replacements.