How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

If anyone made them heroes it was the state,they targeted them for a crime they didn't commit and persecuted them for their beliefs and for being immigrants, in gross violation of the values of a free country.  

Indeed.  I grew up outside of Boston and we studied this fiasco as part of what would now be termed "woke" education.  Meaning, we studied the bad bits of our history and not just the good bits.  I haven't thought of this case in decades, yet I remembered the essence of it just fine.  I guess brainwashing young people works

Steve

[CAZmaj]

19 hours ago, sburke said:

Too bad James Gandolfini passed away.  He'd be the prime guy to play Prig.  Wallace Shawn from "the Princess bride" could play the master strategist Putin.

 

Gandolfini would be too tall to play Putler.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is also important that we acknowledge that as much as Putin had this targeting his domestic audience, it sent a strong message to the world audience.  It projects an image of weakness which the misplaced criticism of the lack of armor only enhances.

It is also important that these parades used to be as much for foreign as dometic audiences.  The huge show of military force marching in sync was supposed to make EVERYBODY quiver in fear, home and abroad, with a dual message to local would-be troublemakers that the Kremlin is all powerful.  The only people that got the warm and fuzzies this year are the brainwashed locals who want to believe in Kremlin power.

Steve

Now that is an interesting spin.  Perhaps Putin is in a dilemma and had to choose between looking weak externally in order to pander to domestic sentiment.  Now why would domestic sentiment see overt massive displays of hard military power in Moscow in a negative light?  Could be several reasons, not the least of which a “less is more” spin.  I have to say that more and more Russia is all up and about Russia.  In many ways it always was but a whole lotta domestic internal focus these last few weeks it seems.

Could be churn, could be nothing.

[Anonymous_Jonze]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Cosa Nostra? Na...They are a group of Opera singers. There is no Mafia!

 

@Anonymous_Jonze

Haha great scene. My mother grew up in NJ, one of her best friend's father's was in "waste management." Drove fancy Cadillacs's. They connected the dot's early. 

[quakerparrot67]

24 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Cosa Nostra? Na...They are a group of Opera singers. There is no Mafia!

 

@Anonymous_Jonze

hey, the picture could have easily been the 1980 bulgarian politburo- jesus, some of those hairstyles... and the neckwear is  positively criminal... i guess the suits are too obviously expensive, though, still tacky as hell.

 

cheers,

rob

[MSBoxer]

17 minutes ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Haha great scene. My mother grew up in NJ, one of her best friend's father's was in "waste management." Drove fancy Cadillacs's. They connected the dot's early. 

I lived on Staten Island in the 70s and went to a private elementary school.  I learned quickly which kids not to mess with because of their family's business.

Shortly after I left most of them moved to NJ.

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Gandolfini would be too tall to play Putler.

That is why I said Prig.  have you seen Princess bride - there is more than one reason I suggested Wallace Shawn.  

[Probus]

*rant begins*  I think the UA offensive is right around the corner, prolly less than 7 days.  We won't know it until after it has happened, of course.  June will be a much different month than May.  Just watch.  Its all starting to fly together ready for a push.  I hope they can push 'em back all the way to the Black Sea at the very least.  Simply put, well applied Western firepower trumps the best the conscript Russians can bring to the table.

Just look at all the signs...  or the suspicious lack thereof in some cases.

My money is on an offensive from Melitopol through Mariupol. *rant ends*

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Probus said:

*rant begins*  I think the UA offensive is right around the corner, prolly less than 7 days.  We won't know it until after it has happened, of course.  June will be a much different month than May.  Just watch.  Its all starting to fly together ready for a push.  I hope they can push 'em back all the way to the Black Sea at the very least.  Simply put, well applied Western firepower trumps the best the conscript Russians can bring to the table.

Just look at all the signs...  or the suspicious lack thereof in some cases.

My money is on an offensive from Melitopol through Mariupol. *rant ends*

that was a rant?  It wasn't even a diatribe, or a sternly worded talking-to. 

So what are you suggesting will happen for May, and then June?

I think May is lots of shaping, misdirection, probing, and relatively small exploitation when opportunity arises, like 5-10km advance here & there.  Putin's head will be spinning and hopefully he'll overreact in one place leading to setback in another.  Then later June/early July UKR hits somewhere really, really hard.  Prolly in the south as you suggest.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Haha great scene. My mother grew up in NJ, one of her best friend's father's was in "waste management." Drove fancy Cadillacs's. They connected the dot's early. 

When I was a kid the neighbor across the street worked in "wholesale produce".  One night his car apparently spontaneously combusted in the driveway.  My family connected the dots pretty quickly too!

Steve

[kevinkin]

Yeah, well I will take the NJ mob over Putin's pansies any day. Flood the trenches with irresistible cardboard pizza and their bowels will seize up. War over. They don't call it Atkilios pizza for nothing. That's called un-maneuverable warfare. 

[danfrodo]

Denys Davydov shows on map where UKR made a little punch today.  Plus very surprising video of UKR tank chasing RU infantry out of the omnipresent strip of woods -- as in, literally chasing them from a few meters away.

 

[Battlefront.com]

A few pages ago I speculated about something.  Now I'm getting more suspicious that I'm right.

Ukraine pulled a couple of really brilliant moves last year ahead of their offensives.  The biggest of which was hitting all kinds of important stuff with HIMARS.  Does anybody remember how long it was between learning that HIMARS was promised and when things went BOOM deep in Russian held territory?  I did a quick check and found a promise of sending them dated June 2nd and by July 15th the Pentagon was already saying they were proving effective.  So, 1 month from time of announcement until Ukraine started blowing things up.

Lately there has been talk by the British about supply Ukraine with Storm Shadow, which has a range of 250km-300km.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/british-led-coalition-hoping-to-supply-longer-range-missiles-to-ukraine

Pure speculation, for sure, but let me case out something:

The decision to send Storm Shadow is already a done deal and logistics are already working on delivering them.  This would be consistent with many new systems delivered to Ukraine in the past.  Especially from the US and UK that do not generally dither after they've made a decision.  Let's say they show up in Ukraine sometime in Ukraine.  We could see them in action well within July.

Last year Russia was obligated to move HQs, logistics hubs, ammo dumps, etc. just ahead of the counter offensives.  From a military standpoint, this is about the worst possible time to dislocate such important logistics.  Yet Russia can't possibly move them ahead of time.  Too late for that to be effective.  And even if they could, where are they going move them to?  Distance wise, they are already well out of optimal range of the front.  Further back would make things much worse.  It also means some parts of the front are going to be particularly vulnerable.

So let's say Ukraine has already incorporated this into their battle plan.  It could be the sort of surprise that could prove decisive.

Steve

[billbindc]

 

Fascinating placement tonight:

[kevinkin]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So let's say Ukraine has already incorporated this into their battle plan. 

Interesting observation. Does that mean the the offensive will wait for the missiles to arrive and become operational? Citadel was delayed because numerous new tanks, assault guns and anti-tank guns were being moved into position. One of those operational questions there are no easy answer to. In the present case, the RA is already dug in. Will they get any stronger? Will they get weaker by July? Will events outside Ukraine's control mess things up? I don't think the Storm Shadow would in itself will hold up things if all else is ready. Ukraine wouldn't place the fate of the offensive on one system. But if all they need to do it delay a few weeks, maybe adding those missiles would be well worth the wait. If the UA is planning on 2 months of heavy sustained offensive combat, there is plenty of time. Politicians be damned. 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Interesting observation. Does that mean the the offensive will wait for the missiles to arrive and become operational? Citadel was delayed because numerous new tanks, assault guns and anti-tank guns were being moved into position. One of those operational questions there are no easy answer to. In the present case, the RA is already dug in. Will they get any stronger? Will they get weaker by July? Will events outside Ukraine's control mess things up? I don't think the Storm Shadow would in itself will hold up things if all else is ready. Ukraine wouldn't place the fate of the offensive on one system. But if all they need to do it delay a few weeks, maybe adding those missiles would be well worth the wait. If the UA is planning on 2 months of heavy sustained offensive combat, there is plenty of time. Politicians be damned. 

Keep jabbing, keep shaping, keep draining the enemy, keep causing fear & demoralization.  Every week UKR gets more & better of everything relative to the enemy.  I think UKR will be doing something in May but I don't think it's the big one yet.  Why do that when you're getting stronger and have a 4-5 month campaign season, while RU hasn't even called for a new mobilizaiton -- that could speed things up for UKR, knowing there's more mobiks coming to fill trenches.

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Keep jabbing, keep shaping, keep draining the enemy, keep causing fear & demoralization.

I agree. While we all want this mess to end in victory as quickly as possible, now is the time to take a deep breath and get it right. At work we used to call it: "the 3 foot put to win the Masters - don't blow it".

[Kinophile]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A few pages ago I speculated about something.  Now I'm getting more suspicious that I'm right.

Ukraine pulled a couple of really brilliant moves last year ahead of their offensives.  The biggest of which was hitting all kinds of important stuff with HIMARS.  Does anybody remember how long it was between learning that HIMARS was promised and when things went BOOM deep in Russian held territory?  I did a quick check and found a promise of sending them dated June 2nd and by July 15th the Pentagon was already saying they were proving effective.  So, 1 month from time of announcement until Ukraine started blowing things up.

Lately there has been talk by the British about supply Ukraine with Storm Shadow, which has a range of 250km-300km.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/british-led-coalition-hoping-to-supply-longer-range-missiles-to-ukraine

Pure speculation, for sure, but let me case out something:

The decision to send Storm Shadow is already a done deal and logistics are already working on delivering them.  This would be consistent with many new systems delivered to Ukraine in the past.  Especially from the US and UK that do not generally dither after they've made a decision.  Let's say they show up in Ukraine sometime in Ukraine.  We could see them in action well within July.

Last year Russia was obligated to move HQs, logistics hubs, ammo dumps, etc. just ahead of the counter offensives.  From a military standpoint, this is about the worst possible time to dislocate such important logistics.  Yet Russia can't possibly move them ahead of time.  Too late for that to be effective.  And even if they could, where are they going move them to?  Distance wise, they are already well out of optimal range of the front.  Further back would make things much worse.  It also means some parts of the front are going to be particularly vulnerable.

So let's say Ukraine has already incorporated this into their battle plan.  It could be the sort of surprise that could prove decisive.

Steve

Plus, often the announcements are deliberately at least two weeks behind the actual pace of events.

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Interesting observation. Does that mean the the offensive will wait for the missiles to arrive and become operational?

I doubt it.  One scenario is that the Ukrainians knew a month or two ago that Storm Shadow was being lined up.  If that's the case, for sure they would have taken it into consideration.  Even if they got wind of this possibility more recently, it's still going to be in their plan somewhere.

Generally in warfare it is best to pull a surprise after the defender's forces have been committed to a specific action.  That makes it much, much harder for the defender to respond effectively.  Sometimes the defender has a bad feeling about what's happening, but doesn't have good options.  I think this is what happened last year with Kharkiv.  My gut tells me that senior Russian leadership had a pretty good idea what was about to happen but everything was committed to Kherson and so they couldn't do much about it but hope it wouldn't be too bad.  It is quite possible that is what Ukraine is attempting to do again for this counter offensive.

Here's a rough concept of how things could go:

1.  Launch a series of significant, but small scale, counter attacks in the Donbas.  We MIGHT be seeing this already (see ISW's report from May 9).

2.  Wait for Russian reserves to be committed to those areas then smash concentrations with HIMARS and other systems we know they have, including a lot more JDAM type attacks.

3.  Increase the scope and scale of the ground attacks in hopes that Russia won't be able to sit back, but instead either commit more forces or be obligated to withdraw.

4.  Hopefully gain significant ground, triggering Russia to commit more forces which can then get smashed when concentrated, thus committing more Russian troops.

5.  When it seems the Donbas counter offensive has got Russia's full attention, start hitting everything in the south.  If Storm Shadow is available, smash the Hell out of everything that Russia moved far to the rear.  Do this for a little while without significant ground action.

6.  With Russian forces tied up in Donbas and chaos (hopefully!) happening in the south, launch the main attack towards Tokmak and drive down towards Crimea while also pushing along the Dnepr.  Cut up Russia's LOCs as quickly and thoroughly as possible in order to get Russia forces to panic and withdraw (Russians do not like being cut off!).

7.  Keep the focus on the south and use the Donbas to pin down Russian forces.  Have modest expectations for taking terrain in Donbas, however if Russian forces withdraw or are overwhelmed, definitely take advantage to a point.  Better to be cautious here until the south is settled.  The last thing Ukraine needs is to overextend itself in the Donbas and have to divert forces from the south to stabilize things.

That's my thinking

Steve

[dan/california]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A few pages ago I speculated about something.  Now I'm getting more suspicious that I'm right.

Ukraine pulled a couple of really brilliant moves last year ahead of their offensives.  The biggest of which was hitting all kinds of important stuff with HIMARS.  Does anybody remember how long it was between learning that HIMARS was promised and when things went BOOM deep in Russian held territory?  I did a quick check and found a promise of sending them dated June 2nd and by July 15th the Pentagon was already saying they were proving effective.  So, 1 month from time of announcement until Ukraine started blowing things up.

Lately there has been talk by the British about supply Ukraine with Storm Shadow, which has a range of 250km-300km.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/british-led-coalition-hoping-to-supply-longer-range-missiles-to-ukraine

Pure speculation, for sure, but let me case out something:

The decision to send Storm Shadow is already a done deal and logistics are already working on delivering them.  This would be consistent with many new systems delivered to Ukraine in the past.  Especially from the US and UK that do not generally dither after they've made a decision.  Let's say they show up in Ukraine sometime in Ukraine.  We could see them in action well within July.

Last year Russia was obligated to move HQs, logistics hubs, ammo dumps, etc. just ahead of the counter offensives.  From a military standpoint, this is about the worst possible time to dislocate such important logistics.  Yet Russia can't possibly move them ahead of time.  Too late for that to be effective.  And even if they could, where are they going move them to?  Distance wise, they are already well out of optimal range of the front.  Further back would make things much worse.  It also means some parts of the front are going to be particularly vulnerable.

So let's say Ukraine has already incorporated this into their battle plan.  It could be the sort of surprise that could prove decisive.

Steve

The geometry of the land bridge really matters here. It is pretty loosely 100 to 150 kilometer deep but 200 km wide, well over three hundred if you include the Dnipro. So even a 175 km smart munition in meaningful quantity is going to put the nearest safe depot the best part of 300 km away from the central part of the land bridge. I suspect the Russians will deal with that rather badly.

 

 

[kevinkin]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's my thinking

Mine too. But you laid it out nicely. Recon pull. Find enough points of penetration in the north to threaten the Donbas. Switch to south; switch back the north and out Boyd cycle the Russians. The land bridge has now become so obvious a target the UA can use that to hold RA forces there with a minimum of effort so as to place the RA onto a "Horns of a Dilemma". These types of maneuver can reveal was it really important to the enemy. Then you can attack their weakness; not their strength. In the end, the house of card collapses. The enemy can't differentiate what was impotent from what is important. 

[Battlefront.com]

Article in The Hill about the May 9th parade:

https://thehill.com/newsletters/defense-national-security/3996863-russias-victory-day-criticized-for-meager-showing/

As has been discussed here, the speculation is that the whole thing was scaled down so as to not create a messaging problem with the Russian people.  Also mentioned is cancellation of the traditional marching of people carrying pictures of long dead people from The Great Patriotic War.

Two tidbits of interest beyond this.  First, no flyovers.  I hadn't seen that mentioned yet and kinda forgot about it.  The other one is an estimate of 8000 troops took part in the marching vs. 11,000 last year.  That's a significant drop.

Steve

[kevinkin]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

May 9th parade

The parade was like a funeral. The lone T34 was like the Riderless Horse, Black Jack, at Kennedy's Funeral. In 1963 it was symbolic and hopeful for the US. In 2023, it's symbolic and dreadful for Russia.

[Offshoot]

41 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The parade was like a funeral. The lone T34 was like the Riderless Horse, Black Jack, at Kennedy's Funeral. In 1963 it was symbolic and hopeful for the US. In 2023, it's symbolic and dreadful for Russia.

It depends on what it symbolises. Vlad Vexler discussed the parade and noted that it was disgusting because it highlighted how Putin has co-opted or privatised the Great Patriotic War myth, equating himself as an individual with it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APGtuQ7JAFs&t=278s

It's likely they couldn't get the usual number of tanks, so rather than have a diminished parade they cut it down completely to have just the traditional and symbolic T34. In this case, however, it could symbolise for them the solitary Putin, the embodiment of the Russian state, standing heroically and by himself against the rest of the world.

It does look bad to the rest of the world but Putin is already "at war" with them, so he doesn't care. It was all for domestic purposes.

[Battlefront.com]

Article in Politico about the US dismantling a very long running Russian malware capability that stole sensitive information private and public entities in over 50 countries.  This has been going on for two decades!

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/09/doj-dismantles-russian-spy-tool-00095959

Steve