How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

He can, and probably did. The more interesting issue is why Putin doesn't want to give him that for already, what..2-3 months? The only answer is that it is beneficial for him when Prig is pissing publically on MoD carpets. It's political theatre to cull military, and maybe put some steam off the public/prapare for blamegame phase.

Sound strange and even conspiratory to our politcal thinking, but for guy like Puitn such PsyOps on internal use are bread and butter of politics; he learned them before even found himself at Kremlin. He did after all survived and shaped very competing political environment for already 2 decade, without resorting to widespread violence. He did it among other with such careful powerplays.

 

Pretty interesting case study of Russian fortification efforts:

 

it is a very interesting study/map. We just have to remember that the AFU General staff are looking at one with ten or a hundred times the resolution that is updated daily, and overlayed with signals, thermal, synthetic aperture radar, and a great deal else. There is about to be a little test of how much that matters.

Edited May 8, 2023 by dan/california

[Centurian52]

On 5/5/2023 at 3:14 AM, Maciej Zwolinski said:

My personal theory is that Prigozhyn may be behind the drone attack

That seems plausible. I'm not sure I want to commit to that specific theory just yet, but I'm still leaning towards anti-Putin Russians as the likely actors. My interpretation of a Prigozhin-authorized attack is that this would be more the internal-politics version of a temper tantrum than a calculated maneuver.

[Centurian52]

On 5/5/2023 at 6:30 AM, Billy Ringo said:

Putin may simply be slowly building his off-ramp to get out of this mess by shifting blame on the Russian generals--hoping he can stay in power.

I'm still convinced that an off-ramp is the last thing that Putin wants. I think he is completely committed to this war. He wants Ukraine and nothing will convince him that he can't have it.

[A Canadian Cat]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, this.  And after you are done asking chrisl how he knows, you can ask me how I know   It really isn't that difficult to do.  What takes more time is to become skilled at it enough to operate in a tight urban environment safely.  I think of this every time I drive by one working on a section of highway bridge.  One wrong move by an operator and someone dies.

Funnily enough I saw a video this morning while killing time on Reddit of an excavator operator filling two kids' dump trucks with just the right amount of dirt. I cannot find the one I saw this morning but it turns out other people have had the same idea. Some skills:

https://www.reddit.com/r/HumansBeingBros/comments/y00mcy/construction_crew_filling_up_toy_dump_truck_with/

https://www.reddit.com/r/unexpectedwholesome/comments/12n2egx/excavator_fills_toy_dump_truck_with_dirt/

[billbindc]

43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Oh man, can you imagine the irony of Prigozhin being dethroned, convicted and jailed -  then forcibly recruited into Gerasimov's PMC with the "promise" of a pardon? 

I just wrote this as sorta joke but holy knickers it's actually possible with this shower of psychotic clowns. 

I'll take Prigozhins Fall & Rise & Fall for $200, please. 

 But, in seriousness, I do have doubts that Priggy Boi is quite the puppet suggested above.

He has an armed,  motivated and personally attached group around him and is regularly,  if not mostly, in a geographic area at a far remove from. Putin personally.

He has also steadily built up ties in the general region, and while the upper MoD probably loathes him,  the Army proper is nowhere near as United.

If he smells danger I expect he'll stay near the Warzone,  surrounded and protected by his Wagneriki. Anybody can be got to,  of course,  but having something like Wagner at your back would give a lot of other players pause. Maybe even Pootin.

What Prigozhin has around him is an armed, motivated *mercenary* group that is surrounded by the Russian military and depends wholly on it for support. You can be quite sure that the FSB and GRU keep close tabs and cultivate internal factions constantly. It's the one thing they do well. If Prigozhin smells danger, what does he do? He tries to make himself a national hero that's more trouble that it's worth to eliminate. In fact, that's exactly what he's doing now. If he gets a summons from Moscow and demurs, he'd be dead in a week. What Putin can offer Prigozhin's lieutenants is decisively safer and better.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If he gets a summons from Moscow and demurs, he'd be dead in a week.

If it takes more than a couple of hours Russia is well into a multi sided civil war.

[Centurian52]

On 5/5/2023 at 8:18 AM, sross112 said:

Perun's last video was on hypersonic missiles. In it he talks about their development, cost, and use. The US had a program, but they ended it awhile back. Could it be that they are super expensive and they knew from testing that they were vulnerable to interception by the Patriot and maybe other systems?

Having seen the video, my takeaway is that hypersonic weapons aren't as useful to the US as they are to our adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are really only useful against a fairly narrow range of targets. In order to be worth targeting with hypersonic weapons a platform needs to be important enough to be worth expending extremely expensive ordinance, time sensitive enough to require ordinance that will reach it quickly, and well protected enough against conventional ordinance to require weapons that can penetrate those defenses. We have platforms that perfectly fit the description of a good target for hypersonic weapons (carriers), while our adversaries don't have many juicy targets. So hypersonic weapons neatly fit our adversaries' needs, but they don't fit our own needs as much. It's more urgent for us to develop defenses against hypersonic weapons than it is for us to develop the weapons themselves.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Centurian52

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If it takes more than a couple of hours Russia is well into a multi sided civil war.

No, it wouldn't be. He'd be removed. And that's my point...Putin's still running the show. There are certainly stresses to his ability to arbitrate conflicts but so far there's no sign at all that he's losing control. So far, he's just losing the war.

[MikeyD]

One thing we need to take into account is these Russian machinations are often being done in an alcohol fog. We're hearing threats and demands, abrupt dismissals and promotions, grandiose statements and absurd threats. They don't often make sense to us because these guys are drunkards.

[Centurian52]

On 5/5/2023 at 12:59 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Report that Leopard 1 should be ready by June 1st:

Excellent! My feeling is that the Leopard 1 is going to perform well, counterintuitive as the notion of a 2nd gen MBT performing well on a battlefield dominated by 3rd gen MBTs may be. Not as well as the Leopard 2, Challenger 2, or Abrams (whenever it arrives) obviously. But the A5 variant has thermals and a computerized fire-control system. And the facts that its gun can't penetrate Kontakt-5 (it can pen T-72oids without Relikt or Kontakt-5 just fine, so T-72Bs are fair game) and it's armor can't survive any apfsds don't make it any worse than the T-64BVs that used to be the backbone of Ukraine's tank fleet. The lack of blowout panels to protect the crew from catastrophic explosions doesn't make it any worse than the T-72oids that Ukraine has had to make do with so far either. Plus it has a decent reverse speed.

More Leopard 2s would be better. But so long as the Leopard 1s are in addition-to, not instead-of, more Leopard 2s, I think they will prove valuable.

[Kinophile]

52 minutes ago, billbindc said:

What Prigozhin has around him is an armed, motivated *mercenary* group that is surrounded by the Russian military and depends wholly on it for support. You can be quite sure that the FSB and GRU keep close tabs and cultivate internal factions constantly. It's the one thing they do well. If Prigozhin smells danger, what does he do? He tries to make himself a national hero that's more trouble that it's worth to eliminate. In fact, that's exactly what he's doing now. If he gets a summons from Moscow and demurs, he'd be dead in a week. What Putin can offer Prigozhin's lieutenants is decisively safer and better.

Good point, mercenaries will always be mercenarying. He blathered a bit about creating a political wing but I wonder does he have the chops for that. 

 

[Kinophile]

Even manned by just Mobiks,  a belt this deep is no joke. Supposedly runs full length of Front (not sure on that). 

[Centurian52]

On 5/6/2023 at 1:52 AM, Haiduk said:

Ground conditions:

...probably Donbas

... probably Zaporizhzhia oblast

 

Looking better. I remember hearing somewhere (may have been in this thread) that some heavy rain has been forecasted for later in May, so I think I'm still expecting early June. But I will be happy to be proven wrong.

[Kinophile]

I didn't watch the overgrown mama's boy get his 15 seconds in the sun before he kicks the bucket,  ^{so I didn't see this. Pretty damn good.  Much as I detest the very concept and actual existence of monarchy,  they did manage to get this right.} 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kinophile

[MSBoxer]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I didn't watch the overgrown mama's boy get his 15 seconds in the sun before he kicks the bucket,  so I didn't see this. Pretty damn good.  Much as I detest the very concept and actual existence of monarchy,  they did manage to get this right. 

I thought is was photoshop, but a little research indicates it is real.

Edited May 8, 2023 by MSBoxer
Research proved otherwise

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Wonderful image, obviously a photoshop, but still a wonderful image.

Oh man, Im silly. Didn't see that in the small phone screen. Ugh. But hey, at least I get to take back an undeserved compliment to a useless institution.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kinophile

[akd]

4 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Wonderful image, obviously a photoshop, but still a wonderful image.

It is not. Those were the colors of the carpets used for the ceremony.

[MSBoxer]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

It is not. Those were the colors of the carpets used for the ceremony.

I realized that after some research and edited my post.  The angles looked off and the lack of shadows on the side made it look suspect, but this image shows it better.  To be fair, I did not watch the coronation.

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by MSBoxer

[Kinophile]

Huh!

Not a photoshop.

Quote

 The angles looked off and the lack of shadows on the side made it look suspect,

Yah the lack of shadows, eg at the ends of pews, threw me off, but its just the godawful lighting stadium type lighting from above

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kinophile

[Ts4EVER]

Many of these people must feel silly doing this kind of ceremony in 2023.

[Centurian52]

On 5/6/2023 at 11:41 PM, kevinkin said:

This war will not be decided by incoming and outgoing bombs

Well...obviously there's more to it than that, but incoming and outgoing bombs is among the factors that will decide the outcome of this war.

[Haiduk]

UKR Striker M1296

Swedish Pvpj 1110 recioless gun in UKR service

New-established 38th marines brigade has T-72EA tanks, upgraded in Czechia

 

[Centurian52]

On 5/7/2023 at 12:15 AM, kevinkin said:

Demographics. 

Yeah, I just looked up a demographic chart of India (by age groups), and this checks out. Lots of young people, relatively few old people. The population is weighted a bit towards the left (male) side of the graph, which isn't ideal. But overall it looks like a recipe for economic growth for the next few decades. Of course lots of young people now means lots of old people later, so that growth won't continue forever. But things look good for them for now.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Centurian52]

On 5/7/2023 at 1:41 AM, chrisl said:

And unless Xi decides he absolutely has to have Taiwan, China comes out ahead of India.

I doubt it. China's economic fate in the 21st century was sealed decades ago by the one child policy. One glance at a demographic chart of China shows that they are in for some hard times ahead (lots of old people, relatively few young people, with the graph leaning uncomfortably far to the left (male) side). I doubt they could stop their impending economic decline even if they managed to take full control of Taiwan's semiconductor industry intact, without suffering further damage to their trade, budget, or industry in the process.

Personally I think the 2020s are the now or never moment for China to take Taiwan. My guess is that they will stop gaining on the US sometime this decade, and probably be in decline by the 2030s. I think they will either take Taiwan by 2030, or be forced to accept that they will never be strong enough to take it by force again (I'm hoping for the latter, much as I'd like to have Combat Mission Taiwan Strait).