How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

15 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

My mistake. For some reason I thought that in the USA military, command could request TS/SCI for whomever it wants. Or not. And assignments. Didn’t realize that the shoe was on the other rank. 

Coming back to this one because this is how misinformation and conspiracy nonsense starts.  And again the US operates under a similar but different legal framework.  So government does have control of who they grant security clearances to, or not.  Absolutely.  However, that authority exists within a legal framework that also ensures that unlawful discrimination is controlled out of the system.  For example, imagine if this kid was black.  Does anyone think they the US government should start filtering out 21 years old who are black, or Jewish based on that alone (and if you do, please leave)? 

Security clearance in the public sector = taxpayer funded employment, and as such has to walk that oversight and transparency line like anything else.  I have no doubt discrimination happens but the system is built to ensure it is minimized as much as possible, with lengthy reviews, audits etc.  These systems are also in place to protect the employer (i.e. the US Government) from law suits of discrimination in hiring practices.  E.G.  Say this kid held onto his racial bigotry ideas and got a job in security clearances, what mechanism are in place to prevent him from simply only granting clearances to other sad, lonely white men?

Before we put this to bed for good, the reason to address it is that there are a LOT of just garbage myths and information out there on how western governments actually work.  I mean these are massive enterprises in the 21st century and it is too much to expect the average citizen to understand the layers and layers in play.  However, the problem with this is that people fill in the gaps with anecdotes and misinformation.  Suddenly the government is capable of doing all sorts of things that legally it simply cannot do, or at least do easily.  Hollywood has done us exactly zero favors in all this too.  Executive actions (i.e. political assassination's) is one such area.  If you believe TV and movies, western governments are doing these everyday and twice on weekends.  In reality the levels of controls and authorities to conduct an extra-judiciary killing (outside a defined operational box) are enormous.  Hollywood is likely much more accurate on how the other teams are operating, such as Russian FSB but have little to zero reflection on the actual work going on in western defence and security.

Probably about as far as I can take this line right  now.  Bottom line, when you hear some of these claims, just do the due diligence and cross check along a few lines to be safe.      

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

I think history has shown you are destined for disappointment.

I don't do emjois (or "emoticons"), however if I did, mine would show a lengthy eyerolling - which is actually derived from a look towards heaven.  As if to look to God, despairingly and in supplication for guidance and Job like patience in the face of what is presented. 

[kevinkin]

Renewed rumblings within Europe over commitment to Ukraine:

https://news.usni.org/2023/04/14/france-germany-not-doing-enough-to-support-ukraine-says-polands-pm?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Morawiecki called the relationship between Moscow and Beijing “the key to the future of the world” because both are aggressively warring or threatening their neighbors if they don’t meet their demands on territory and trade.

China steps in and we have all the makings of a Global proxy war centered in eastern Ukraine. And Macron didn't scare anyone. 

Meanwhile Morawiecki called upon the United States to unveil a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine and for Europe to reaffirm its commitment and foster closer relations economically and militarily as Washington did after World War II in Europe.

Poland is spending 4 percent of its gross domestic product on security, modernizing its forces with M1A1 tanks, ordering F-35 Lightning II Strike Fighters and hosting U.S. F-22s, positioning air defense and long-range rocket artillery systems, Morawiecki said. It has also established a garrison post for rotating American forces.

Warsaw is also crossing over to nuclear energy to further distance itself from dependence on Moscow for natural gas and petroleum To modernize its digital infrastructure, Poland is working with Microsoft and Google, Morawiecki said.

Not surprising Poland would love to be the major benefactor of this new new "Marshall Plan".

[NamEndedAllen]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Coming back to this one because this is how misinformation and conspiracy nonsense starts. 

Let’s give it a rest. You’ve already stated your opinions about age, religion and clearances. So have many others, including those who differ from yours. Steve asked us all to cease and desist, so let’s do so.

Edited April 17, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Vet 0369]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:45 PM, sburke said:

what planet do you live on where "good Christian boy" precludes bizarre sexual behavior?  For all their ranting about gay drag queen groomers, the worst groomers I've seen are these "good Christian leaders".

anyway I doubt this idiot is gonna get hit with the full ton of bricks.  He wasn't passing to a foreign intelligence agency or trying to sell them,  just being really stupid.

I’m not sure about this. The Government and the military have a history of going for the absolute maximum penalties in order to dissuade idiots from repeating this type of breach.

I agree with you about the “good Christian” analysis. All you have to do is look at the sexual abuse by Clergy revelations and convictions. 

[Vet 0369]

On 4/15/2023 at 11:03 PM, NamEndedAllen said:

Really? *A* clearance? I have family members much older than him, who sweated through the full SSBI or Full and TS/SCI process. It’s an 8-15 month trip. This wildly bigoted and troubled not-an-exemplary kid’s religion has nothing to do with the process.  Regardless, we all know (or with any science background, darn well should know ) 19–ish year old teenage brains have not matured. The last part of the brain to mature is the frontal cortex. Where good judgement, self-control, social skills, and decision-making skill come from. So yeah. Not arguing about the drinking or voting age, or recruitment age. I do think it’s playing with fire to put “scores” of 19-21 year olds fresh out of high school into positions with full access to SCIFs material and entry into the JWICS. With no ability or program to monitor the changes these 19 year olds go through on their way to actual biological maturity. What could go wrong? BTW, anyone think he never spouted off about his government conspiracy racist fantasies to anyone anywhere else?

Lastly, the US.military is sufficiently large to revise and assign this critical responsibility to an age appropriate rank and paygrade. The number of slots is “scores”, not “hundreds”. Do we really need to gamble like this? No. While of course it’s no silver bullet, it’s a LOT easier than trying to institute some sort of Total Big Brother real time microscope on every minute of people’s lives.

‘The part of the brain behind the forehead, called the prefrontal cortex, is one of the last parts to mature. This area is responsible for skills like planning, prioritizing, and making good decisions”... and… “The brain finishes developing and maturing in the mid-to-late 20s.” https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publications/the-teen-brain-7-things-to-know

First of all, we’re talking about the AIR NATIONAL GUARD here, not the U.S. Air force. The National Guard is a STATE Organization. It is only Federal when activated by the Federal Government. It is what used to be known as the MILITIA. While they have enlisted and Officers, those report to State officials, are paid by the State, and their Retirements are State retirements. In fact, most activites are performed by Civilian Employees who only become “Military” during their drill weekends and annual two-week active duty training. Now, that said, he might be an active duty Air Force enlisted who is assigned to the National Guard unit, the same as an Inspector/Instruction Staff of a U.S. Marine Reserve unit. He might not be in the Air Force at all, just the Guard. I take very little of the media information for the “talking heads” at face value.

[Battlefront.com]

Since Vet 0369 is obviously just catching up, I'll restate that we're trying to move on from the security stuff.

Steve

[Bearstronaut]

The Russian organization Gulagu conducted interviews with two former Wagner commanders detailing repeated war crimes and brutal treatment of their own men. One talks about shooting children and the other mentions executing any civilians found in an occupied area. Full on Einsatzgruppen stuff. The full interview is available on YouTube but as of yet I don't think anyone has translated the entire thing. I've found some translated snippets on Twitter however.

 

[Haiduk]

Bakhmut.

Russians tried to attack on Khromove and Ivanivske, but without success. But they continuing to mass troops inside the city, during this day they could slightly push off our forces in railroad station area again. Russian aviation used high-caliber bomb for strike - huge "mashroom" was visible from Kostiantynivka. 

Vuhledar area.

Russian TGs reported about intensive artillery fire of UKR forces, which hit even small groups of soldiers. Fighterbomber TG wrote as if UKR forces tried to attack with armor, but Russian army aviation repelled attack, using "Vikhr' " ATGM missiles - as if destroyed two tanks, BMP and many infantry.  

Edited April 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

Looks like Solovyev now wants to briefly play the role of the 21st century Tokyo Rose or Hanoi Hannah.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I don't do emjois (or "emoticons"), however if I did, mine would show a lengthy eyerolling - which is actually derived from a look towards heaven.  As if to look to God, despairingly and in supplication for guidance and Job like patience in the face of what is presented. 

As God looks down, chuckles and mutters "sucker". emoticon ->  

on a more serious note, our neighbors 15 year old hung out with us a bit Sunday.  Her take on things generally is so much more open and positive than I remember things being when I was 15 that perhaps you are right.  I hope so cause we totally screwed these kids future environmentally.

Edited April 17, 2023 by sburke

[Beleg85]

Another take on today's claim that Wagnerites mass shoot people in Soledar and Bakhmut.

Translation is provided in the comments.

Some people, also here doubt they indeed cleared streets of Soledar and Bakhmut from remaining civilians. Most of the people who left there at this stage are convinced separatists waiting to be "liberated" + few who are too old/burdened to leave. On the other side, it is Wagner, so everything is possible and I'd be inclined to believe that such episode did happen, though perhaps on smaller scale than Bucha.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[JonS]

Are we back on the part of the cycle marked Germany-bashing-week already?

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Not surprising Poland would love to be the major benefactor of this new new "Marshall Plan".

Maybe Poland could stop huffing all that sweet sweet Russian gas first?

Edited April 17, 2023 by JonS

[beardiebloke]

20 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Such as?

Well it seems to start out just a little eccentric but gets progressively weirder.  The gist of it is that US/NATO pushed Ukraine into a ware with Russia so that they could use the crisis to accelerate digitisation of the UKR government and then use Google/Azure/Amazon tech to control the country.  Also that Covid wasn't really that bad and governments were scaremongering to control citizens.  Sure, UKR gov't uses cloud services but so do lots of companies and governments, that doesn't mean these tech giants cooperate to undermine democracy or that UKR is no longer sovereign as a result.  They also say that Zelensky banned all opposition parties, not just some Russian-linked ones.

I thought the presenter's style sounded a bit Tucker Carlson and guess what, he's an ex-Fox presenter and ex-real estate investor/promoter.  The channel even states that it's not presenting news but entertainment.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

I thought the presenter's style sounded a bit Tucker Carlson and guess what, he's an ex-Fox presenter and ex-real estate investor/promoter.  The channel even states that it's not presenting news but entertainment.

'enertainment' claim makes it harder to sue them. 

 

3 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

he gist of it is that US/NATO pushed Ukraine into a ware with Russia so that they could use the crisis to accelerate digitisation of the UKR government and then use Google/Azure/Amazon tech to control the country.  Also that Covid wasn't really that bad and governments were scaremongering to control citizens. 

Where you are not understanding things is that 5G makes covid, hence the tech companies, which made covid because they could then make everyone take vaccines that planted little robots inside us so the One World Government could spy on us via big contracts w big tech paid for by selling the blood of children to movie stars.  How can anyone not put these pieces together? 

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

on a more serious note, our neighbors 15 year old hung out with us a bit Sunday.  Her take on things generally is so much more open and positive than I remember things being when I was 15 that perhaps you are right.  I hope so cause we totally screwed these kids future environmentally.

On the other side of the coin, a 16 year old daughter of a friend of mine is not planning on going to higher ed (she is smart enough) and is instead going to stay in her family home and work the farm.  She doesn't think the huge problems facing our society are going to sort themselves out, even though both of her parents are more optimists than pessimists.  She has a plan to obscure her presence there so the marauders don't get her food.

So does that mean the two canceled each other out?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Another take on today's claim that Wagnerites mass shoot people in Soledar and Bakhmut.

Translation is provided in the comments.

Some people, also here doubt they indeed cleared streets of Soledar and Bakhmut from remaining civilians. Most of the people who left there at this stage are convinced separatists waiting to be "liberated" + few who are too old/burdened to leave. On the other side, it is Wagner, so everything is possible and I'd be inclined to believe that such episode did happen, though perhaps on smaller scale than Bucha.

Even if they are for real and served in the combat zones they claimed to have (which should be questioned) they could be exaggerating to make themselves look/sound tougher than they really are.  One thing we know about testosterone injected alpha males is that to them size matters.  So if it's not all that big, brag about how big it is

I have no doubts at all that Wagner is routinely committing warcrimes, including deliberate killing of POWs and civilians.  But killing on the scale they say they are doing it?  While certainly possible, perhaps even probable, they could be lying.  Just like some serial killers lie about how many victims they have.  It's more likely they will lie about having killed more than fewer people.

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

On the other side of the coin, a 16 year old daughter of a friend of mine is not planning on going to higher ed (she is smart enough) and is instead going to stay in her family home and work the farm.  She doesn't think the huge problems facing our society are going to sort themselves out, even though both of her parents are more optimists than pessimists.  She has a plan to obscure her presence there so the marauders don't get her food.

So does that mean the two canceled each other out?

Steve

I think they both might be right.  And they both sound a lot smarter than we were back in the day.  Good gawd we were a lost generation back in the 80s.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

Well it seems to start out just a little eccentric but gets progressively weirder.  The gist of it is that US/NATO pushed Ukraine into a ware with Russia so that they could use the crisis to accelerate digitisation of the UKR government and then use Google/Azure/Amazon tech to control the country.  Also that Covid wasn't really that bad and governments were scaremongering to control citizens.  Sure, UKR gov't uses cloud services but so do lots of companies and governments, that doesn't mean these tech giants cooperate to undermine democracy or that UKR is no longer sovereign as a result.  They also say that Zelensky banned all opposition parties, not just some Russian-linked ones.

I thought the presenter's style sounded a bit Tucker Carlson and guess what, he's an ex-Fox presenter and ex-real estate investor/promoter.  The channel even states that it's not presenting news but entertainment.

Well then, thanks for saving me a few minutes of my life watching that video.  I was getting curious, but now I am as curious about this guy as I am about learning more about Q-Anon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think they both might be right.  And they both sound a lot smarter than we were back in the day.  Good gawd we were a lost generation back in the 80s.

We didn't have TikTok, but we sure did like our MTV

Steve

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We didn't have TikTok, but we sure did like our MTV

Steve

Back when it still played music.  I swear reality tv and emoticons were the first two horsemen of the apocalypse.

[sburke]

youngsters!  Why when they rolled out the horseless carriage, I warned folks of the evil of climate change and vehicle exhaust but would anyone listen to me?!  Noooo they just said my horse Rusty was a worse polluter than their car!

[Holien]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Good gawd we were a lost generation back in the 80s.

Talk about yourself!!! We were reading and playing complicated RPG's such as Aftermath and worrying about where to build a post apocalyptic community.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath!

We would wait 30 minutes for a computer game to load off a tape deck to play with block graphics.

The kids today don't know how lucky they are.... (Qué a Monty python sketch)

[Fernando]

19 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes
¿Quién custodia a los custodios?

Hey, I have found I speak latin!

[Beleg85]

First Ukrainian Leopard tango down...fortunatelly, on training grounds only- reportedly crew got unharmed. What caused this is subject of debates, perhaps somebody tried  to push ERA bricks too forcefully .