How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Highly charged incident. 

I touched on this subject myself many pages ago,  about how/if the UOC or similar will affect the peace,  using the Catholic Church in Ireland,, after our civil war, as a parallel example. 

There does seem to be a strong social push against the Moscow backed church, but I'm not there. 

Any of our UKR friends able to elaborate? Or is it a too-tricky subject just now? 

 

 

It's all about how we frame this event.  I would say "pro Russian drag queens attack Ukrainian soldier in a church!".  (they do all kinda dress like drag queens, btw, and the higher up they go the more elaborate the gowns.  I grew up catholic, same thing there).   Anyway, this kind of framing would very much confuse RU nats on how to react to this event.

[womble]

4 minutes ago, Holien said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65157555

Russia has friends in the Middle East? 

Not sure it will help them....

Nah, the OPEC cartel has just gotten used to the sweet, sweet taste of profiteering-level margins and have decided to try and keep it that way. Even if the higher prices mean shale reserves start to become viable, so increasing the market competition... It's just money-grabbing by the sheikhs.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Gpig said:

I think you can see all three crewmembers survived that T80 getting nuked. (Javelin?)

I am always curious how many of the guys who get out of a tank after a hit like that can still move under their own power an hour later when the , quite justified, panic wears off? It looked like it hit the engine rather than turret, which gave them time to get out.

[akd]

34 minutes ago, Gpig said:

I think you can see all three crewmembers survived that T80 getting nuked. (Javelin?)

Looks like the Javelin hit the engine deck / right side fuel tank.  Can't tell if the fuel explosion maybe also partially vented out of the open turret hatch, so might be some slightly crispy survivors

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sumy

I think Sumy might be the clearest case of the Russians just being two battalions of infantry short. And in addition to what they lost initially Sumy holding out bleeped up their ability to utilize the road and rail networks in all of North eastern Ukraine, for want of a nail. This isn't THE engagement that doomed the Russian push on Kyiv, but it on the list.

This lecture, and it is an hour long lecture, makes a pretty good case that THE single biggest factor in the first ~three weeks was aggressive and effective combat engineering in Kyiv's northern suburbs. Dropping dozens of of bridges, blowing one dam, and opening others. This reduced the number of routes the Russians could advance on to such a small number that Ukraine could concentrate more forces against the heads of the columns than the Russians could push through, and this gave the Ukrainian artillery static targets.

 

Edit: someone else posted this video some time in last three days, but i could NOT find my way back to the original post.

Edited April 2, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Dumb mass turns into scrap metal rather quickly.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well then like a lot of other times, those ten days were when history was hanging in the balance.  I am still not sure more infantry would have made a difference.  Unless we are talking 1-2 million but the Russian military was not setup for a campaign of those sizes even back before when it lost 10k vehicles.

They may have created security corridors for molotovs and shotguns but most reports show that artillery did  most of the killing with next-gen ATGMs likely coming in next. Then other tanks/AFVs with direct fire. The Russian Air Force was blunted a few days in by a much smaller force and hella denial effort.  So unless infantry could catch artillery, establish air superiority or turn off the UA ISR, again I am not sure how more of them would yield success.

Regardless, we are where we are and I do not see “more infantry” actually solving much for Russia at this point.  Of course at the rate they are burning through vehicles and platforms it might be all the RA has left.

If Russia had double the amount of infantry in the first few weeks of the war they would likely have lost fewer vehicles and taken fewer casualties while also inflicting more casualties on Ukrainian forces.  It could have pushed back the collapses in the north by a few weeks and could have made the difference in a few places such as the attack on Mykolaiv.  But that's about it.  As you rightly point out, Russia simply wasn't prepared for fighting a large scale war against a determined enemy on its home turf.  Even 80,000 more foot soldiers would not have changed that, and in some ways made the failings even worse (i.e. supply strain).

Steve

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Gpig said:

I think you can see all three crewmembers survived that T80 getting nuked. (Javelin?)

Yeah, looks like maybe hit the rear of the tank.  One of the comments suggests ERA+external fuel tank to get such dramatic explosion and fire while still having the crew survive..  All the black smoke suggests there's a lot of oil burning.  If you scrub through the video it looks like the driver got out first, then the commander and gunner.

(beat by both dan/california and akd. gotta read all the rest of the new posts before replying to these...)

Edited April 2, 2023 by chrisl

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Highly charged incident. 

I touched on this subject myself many pages ago,  about how/if the UOC or similar will affect the peace,  using the Catholic Church in Ireland,, after our civil war, as a parallel example. 

There does seem to be a strong social push against the Moscow backed church, but I'm not there. 

Any of our UKR friends able to elaborate? Or is it a too-tricky subject just now? 

 

 

Haiduk can certainly do a better job at explaining this, but basically...

The Russian Orthodox Church is a part of the Kremlin regime, not separate from it.  There was a schism in 2018 which saw a rejection of the Moscow patriarch.  However, until this war broke out there was some tolerance for allowing the Russian aligned churches to continue operating.  There's been quite a few allegations of pro-Russian clergy providing material aid to Moscow since the 2022 war started.  Looks like the Ukrainians have decided it's time to address the problem more directly.

As with most things religious... it's complicated

Steve

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even 80,000 more foot soldiers would not have changed that, and in some ways made the failings even worse (i.e. supply strain).

So when do we get "Combat Mission Supply, Logistics, and Replenishment"? Given the possibly not trivial way the game has affected this war, imagine the effect that could have on the next one.

[akd]

trending in food? 

[Seminole]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

trending in food? 

Put "Putin's chef" in Google...

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Haiduk can certainly do a better job at explaining this, but basically...

Put it in layman's terms it is like the Pope In Rome was before the head of the CIA. 

[chuckdyke]

 

[chuckdyke]

A little later.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-media-st-petersburg-woman-201100831.html

Russians have detained someone. It being Russia, she is the only person in St Petersburg I am sure DIDN"T do it.

Edit: For blowing up Tartarsky, that is.

Edited April 3, 2023 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

A small read on the clash of the MP church and Ukrainian government. I’ll point out that the author draws upon the fact from the RUSI report on the failing invasion, that the church was and probably remains an ideological stronghold of the “Russian world”.
 

Quote: To quote a recent and excellent report by the British think tank RISU, “the one body of ideologically committed agents supporting the invasion was the Russian Orthodox Church. Beyond its efforts to support Russian information operations, its priests were widely recruited and run by the Russian special services and their monasteries and churches used as safe houses for equipment and personnel.”

https://eastradar.substack.com/p/the-long-war-16

[Doc844]

Lots of interesting discussions and info to chew through.  Been playing catching up due to work stuff.    one thing that has struck me and not been mentioned in regards to drones is the civilian/terrorist sphere. 

This war is showing what can be done with drones, whether it be military spec or someone with a bit of botch tape and plasti-cuffs.  So what happens when some one decides that going all AR 15 in a school, sorry America, and dieing for it, decides to stick some homemade explosives to a drone and goes all drone bomber in a residential area.  Or even worse a terrorist organisation does it, multiple targets, maximum terror.  How do governments protect against that, prevent it.  I know its off topic but this war has brought into stark contrast how much damage can be done with a simple drone.

 

Also there was a post about miniature drones being used in mass swarms to target individual soldiers, like 10000 to 15000 drones in a swarm.  This was actually written in a book I just recently read, Counter Strike by Dan Bruns.  It is about a Chinese blitz attack on Taiwan and the only way it can be stopped is for the American President to authorise the use of hunter killer drones, in the book 15000 Chinese soldiers simply just die.  Scary sh*t.  Books not great but kills time when ur off shift on a rig.

As for the coming UKR offensive there are 2 thoughts that keep niggling away in the back of my head.  Firstly in regards to equipment, how it seems to be dribs and drabs coming in.  Units are still training, won't be ready in time etc.  But I keep thinking of how Ukraine and the West played it with other heavy gear, ie tubed arty and Himars.  The US/West said they were getting them however everyone gave timelines of training, but it turned out they had already been doing it for months and they were active pretty much from the get go. 

So, it worked then so why not this time.  Tell it loud and the Russians will hear it and believe it because they want to.  When the offensive starts 2 or 3 brigades may well be ready to go.

This leads me to the second point.  Ukraine psyops have been excellent from the very beginning, whether it be official news or through the use of social media.  So they aren't going to be suddenly bad at it.  So all the conflicting reports just now may well be the start of the shaping phase of the offensive.  Send out contradictory reports, not enough arty, need more ammo, the attack won't start until May-june etc.  This then becomes a lot of info for the Russians to sift through to try and formulate a picture and a plan, and I say plan very loosely.  When the offensive gets going I think its going to be a bit of an eye opener.

Just my thoughts after 16 days of 12 hour shifts with another few to do.  Hope you get the jist of what I'm driving at but I am pretty tired.

[cesmonkey]

Armsmaker Rheinmetall sets up maintenance hub in Romania for Ukraine weapons

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/armsmaker-rheinmetall-sets-up-maintenance-hub-romania-ukraine-weapons-2023-04-02/

[Cpl Steiner]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Supporters of Brexit are very similar to the Catalan independence movement in many ways.  Emotionally driven, hostile to rationale discussion, and enhanced by Russian manipulation to further Russian interests.

Wow, just read this. As a Brit who voted for Brexit, I think maybe Steve should stick to military matters as this is pretty insulting and frankly bat **** crazy. My reason for voting Brexit, for the record, is that I believe in democracy and the EU is profoundly undemocratic. We got rid of a king in the 1600s because he was overruling our parliament. The EU over the passed decades has imposed thousands of laws on the UK we had to accept by treaty obligation. It was always about democracy and sovereignty for me and many others, not stupidity, irrationality, or Russian manipulation.

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Armsmaker Rheinmetall sets up maintenance hub in Romania for Ukraine weapons

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/armsmaker-rheinmetall-sets-up-maintenance-hub-romania-ukraine-weapons-2023-04-02/

 

Fuch confirmed?

Edited April 3, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[JonS]

11 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

goes all drone bomber in a residential area

That's ... pretty low payoff? The 9/11 hijackers could have flown those planes into 4 houses in a residential area, easy peasy, but they didn't because the leveraged payoff just isn't there.

Something I've been waiting for for about 5 years now is for someone to fly a 'splody drone into or through the window of some VIP - a head of state, the head of the UN/World Bank/ICC, some talking head with wide reach*, the pope, etc. But so far nada.

 

* I do ascribe to Clarence Darrow's aphorism about obituaries. There are even some I am particularly looking forward to coughswansonmcnearcough

[Bufo]

21 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

The EU over the passed decades has imposed thousands of laws on the UK we had to accept by treaty obligation. It was always about democracy and sovereignty for me and many others, not stupidity, irrationality, or Russian manipulation.

Ah, yes. One of the main points of Orban (PM of Hungary) that is in the tv, radio channels every day and posters across the country, is that they have to stop the tyrannical Brussel (the EU) because they attack Hungary. Huxit soon.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Bufo

[JonS]

24 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

We got rid of a king in the 1600s because he was overruling our parliament.

Lol.

 

Quote

The EU over the passed decades has imposed thousands of laws on the UK we had to accept by treaty obligation.

Lol.

 

Edit: also, "Cpl Steiner"? Lol.

Edited April 3, 2023 by JonS

[Doc844]

14 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's ... pretty low payoff? The 9/11 hijackers could have flown those planes into 4 houses in a residential area, easy peasy, but they didn't because the leveraged payoff just isn't there.

Something I've been waiting for for about 5 years now is for someone to fly a 'splody drone into or through the window of some VIP - a head of state, the head of the UN/World Bank/ICC, some talking head with wide reach*, the pope, etc. But so far nada.

 

* I do ascribe to Clarence Darrow's aphorism about obituaries. There are even some I am particularly looking forward to coughswansonmcnearcough

But it's not about the payoff as in number of deaths, its about vulnerability.  Not being safe in your garden, office, home and there's no real defence against it that I can see.  Also just because it hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it won't be.