How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

That guy is beyond hope. Needs to be put in a straitjacket in a nuthouse.

These days Medvedev reminds me more and more of Zhirinovsky. Two buffoons trying to sound tough and impress Russian nationalists by making outrageous statements.

 

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

These days Medvedev reminds me more and more of Zhirinovsky. Two buffoons trying to sound tough and impress Russian nationalists by making outrageous statements.

 

 

So that's where Alex Jones learned his trade.....

[Huba]

Russian drone armed with downwards-facing „Claymoresky” mine. Scary stuff…

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

Looks like the M1's timetable has been pushed up a bit. Still not quick enough but will be refurbished A1's instead of new production A2's.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-94294a9c1e1acc50098afa440bcb4d40?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_03

Along with our China conversation, Japan has really been putting itself out there in support of Ukraine and polar opposite to China. Seems like they are coming out of their shell more and more on the international stage.

https://apnews.com/article/kishida-kyiv-xi-russia-putin-summit-575d4249f213f1ac0002344501c0239c?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_06

Haven't see anyone else link Perun's newest video of analysis on the RA winter offensive. Lots of points very similar to what has been said on here but also does a good job of showing each of the different areas. Worth the hour watching if you have the time.

Favorite quote from Perun:

9:21 "Generally speaking if the other side can't tell if your offensive has gone in or not, that's pretty embarrassing."

maybe @The_Capt can give us the military acronym for the age old question "Is it in yet?" 

Don’t have an acronym but I had NCOs back in the day who would have described as an operation “that looks like a dog humping a football”.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

The ‘corpse’ will be providing them resources at a market discount due to sanctions, an economic advantage not enjoyed by competitors in Europe. 
In what other sense does Russia have anything to offer China?

An irrational and highly unstable geopolitical partner they have to invest more in to prevent from completely falling apart or dragging them into a major war than they can ever expect to get out of?  Or how about a completely fractured former superpower with 6000 loose nukes at their back door?  

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

The pols in Germany, France and other Western European countries that cautioned against expanding NATO into Ukraine (for some reason*) probably don’t look at it as ‘we didn’t do anything’ to get where we are today.  
 

* If their reason wasn’t genuine concern that Russia would launch this war in response, I’m curious what it was.

Oh goody, it was getting quiet in here…US bashing day.  Yes, please tell us again how this was all the US’s fault for allowing former eastern bloc countries entry into a free and transparent collective defence treaty?  And after those independent and sovereign nations had, of their own free will, decided it was in their best interest to join said collective defence organization. Or why they would want to join said organization in the first place?

Or perhaps a thesis on how the world would be a much better place if we have left them in the cold and trusted Putin to not do this exact same thing in Estonia, Latvia etc?  I mean the guy looks pretty trustworthy based on his performance in this war, right?  Oh that’s right, like a good domestic abuser argument we made him do this.  And if we had only shrank back and stayed out of it the power hungry dictator would have surely been a ok.  

Here is a counter thesis and question - how many Ukrainians would be alive today if we had pulled them into NATO in 2013?  “Oh but look at how unstable and corrupt they were?”…Turkey.  “Oh but it would have made Russia mad and our gas prices go up”…whoops. 

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

The pols in Germany, France and other Western European countries that cautioned against expanding NATO into Ukraine (for some reason*) probably don’t look at it as ‘we didn’t do anything’ to get where we are today.  

 

* If their reason wasn’t genuine concern that Russia would launch this war in response, I’m curious what it was.

What evidence do you have that Russia launched this invasion to prevent Ukraine entering NATO?

On the eve of the invasion, multiple European countries offered to guarantee Ukraine would be denied NATO membership. NATO membership has always been a far off prospect anyhow, considering how every member state is required to approve the accession of a new state.

[TheVulture]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

The pols in Germany, France and other Western European countries that cautioned against expanding NATO into Ukraine (for some reason*) probably don’t look at it as ‘we didn’t do anything’ to get where we are today.  

* If their reason wasn’t genuine concern that Russia would launch this war in response, I’m curious what it was.

I'm more in inclined to think that it was a combination of realpolitik appeasement of Russia and not wanting to get involved if Russia did attack Ukraine (again that is, since we all know about 2014).

Russia's problem isn't Ukraine in NATO. It is a Ukraine that isn't subservient to Russia whilst being better socially and economically. It is EU trading ties with Ukraine, not NATO membership, that is the problem (or one of the main ones anyway).  But I bet you're not going to find many western politicians saying that we should avoid trading with Ukraine, and should avoid helping out to reduce corruption and improve living standards, for fear of provoking Russia.

[Vet 0369]

On 3/17/2023 at 4:20 PM, Haiduk said:

FPV of the siege of Russian blindage. UKR soldiers came to it from back and throw grenades inside, adding rifle fire. Likely blindage enough wide and deep, that even after several grenades one Russian soldier tried to crawl out from the "secret hole" from other side, but UKR trooper spotted the movement and shot Russian

 

Good Lord! That landscape looks like WWI.

[kevinkin]

I don't think NATO ever wanted to directly defend Ukraine (troops on the ground) since the war would be very deadly like what we have seen unless NATO went all in with a ground pounding for the ages. That situation might very well be more escalation prone since the disintegration of of the RA would be so rapid. The Baltic nations are more defensible and I have spoken with Russians over the years and they have a lot of distain for those societies. They don't believe they are worthy of being part of the Russian empire - at least not post-cold war. Ukraine is the prize and in a historically deadly place geopolitically. Chalk this war up to one man's hubris and culture wide mis-reading of the west's desire to help defend Ukraine and bleed Russia white. 

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

An irrational and highly unstable geopolitical partner they have to invest more in to prevent from completely falling apart or dragging them into a major war than they can ever expect to get out of?  Or how about a completely fractured former superpower with 6000 loose nukes at their back door?  

Oh goody, it was getting quiet in here…US bashing day.  Yes, please tell us again how this was all the US’s fault for allowing former eastern bloc countries entry into a free and transparent collective defence treaty?  And after those independent and sovereign nations had, of their own free will, decided it was in their best interest to join said collective defence organization. Or why they would want to join said organization in the first place?

Or perhaps a thesis on how the world would be a much better place if we have left them in the cold and trusted Putin to not do this exact same thing in Estonia, Latvia etc?  I mean the guy looks pretty trustworthy based on his performance in this war, right?  Oh that’s right, like a good domestic abuser argument we made him do this.  And if we had only shrank back and stayed out of it the power hungry dictator would have surely been a ok.  

Here is a counter thesis and question - how many Ukrainians would be alive today if we had pulled them into NATO in 2013?  “Oh but look at how unstable and corrupt they were?”…Turkey.  “Oh but it would have made Russia mad and our gas prices go up”…whoops. 

Exactly and this has been discussed 100x here, I am surprised to see someone still suggest "it's NATO's fault".  The only difference w/o NATO expansion would be that Putin would've invaded and conquered the baltic states before launching his attack on Ukraine.  As Steve and others have said (paraphrase), NATO expansion angers Putin because it permanently and completely takes territory off Putin's list of lands-to-be-conquered.  

[The_Capt]

Just now, FancyCat said:

What evidence do you have that Russia launched this invasion to prevent Ukraine entering NATO?

On the eve of the invasion, multiple European countries offered to guarantee Ukraine would be denied NATO membership. NATO membership has always been a far off prospect anyhow, considering how every member state is required to approve the accession of a new state.

Wait for it...Cuba!  The long held cry of the first year poli-sci student.  "But what if Russia pulled Cuba into a collective defence treaty?!"  Or Mexico?  Or Canada.  What if Canada suddenly joined the Russian Federation of Happy Happy Nations Who Totally Do Not Have A Gun To Their Heads?  Would not the US go into a rage and invade? 

To be honest, probably not.  Why because even though the US has played fast and loose with the rules on occasion, they know they cannot totally throw them out or risk the entire scheme.  What they would do is cut off trade and bankrupt us over a weekend, but that is what big-boy powers do, they employ legal mechanisms to punish and keep in line. 

They do not roll in and invade (oh and here we will go with Grenada and Panama - sure a rogue narco-dictator and coup by a military junta (the OECS also signed off on that one) interventions are the same as Ukraine, not apples to hand grenades at all.)  Like in 03 in Iraq, the US bent the rules and maybe even broke them.  To put them in the same legal house as what is happening in Ukraine is just dumb. Putin tried for a weak R2P, and then started hammering baby hospitals - he is not even in the same league...and this was after we let him get away with Georgia and Crimea.

If Russia and Putin were so smart - and here I will ask forgiveness of Ukrainian members in advance as offering too much on "how Russia could have won this thing" is a little insensitive in the middle of a war, but so is trying to excuse the Russian invasion by blaming it on the West...and by extension Ukraine itself - they would have engineered an internal crisis in Ukraine (again) and then used that as an excuse to intervene.  But that flat-faced a@@hat did not even have the decency to do that.  He played "we are only on exercise" for months and then went "f#ck it, its Tuesday".

So here we are again with the "its all your fault" faction somehow linking the actions of free, stable and independent nations with varying degrees of democratic process to somehow "making" Russia do this horrible war.  It does not match history, nor does it make any sense in terms of how this war actually started. 

I re-iterate, there was no crisis.  It was not like Ukraine was in Brussels with pen in hand hovering over the NATO parchment.  There were no Nazis, or black bio-weapon sites, nor elite conspiracies or alien brain slugs controlling in the background.  We had a dictator pushing 70, looking for domestic power shoring exercise who thought he could totally get away with it, and then let his cronies convince him of what he wanted to hear.  The West had sat back fat, dumb and happily buying his gas and turning blind eyes, until we didn't - Putin thought Ukraine would be Czechoslovakia and what he got was Poland....that is about it.  No appeasement would have worked, there is zero evidence of this.  In fact Crimea demonstrates the exact opposite.

But hey, it is another Tuesday so let's hear the anti-US crowd roll out something new for change....

Edited March 21, 2023 by The_Capt

[Kinophile]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Putin thought Ukraine would be Czechoslovakia and what he got was Poland....

Well to quibble, he got Russia. He Russia'd himself. 

I believe a technical description is auto-copulation? He's certainly ****ing himself. 

Even better,  I found Putin's spirit animal,  the Antechinus. 

 

 

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

An irrational and highly unstable geopolitical partner they have to invest more in to prevent from completely falling apart or dragging them into a major war than they can ever expect to get out of?

What are they 'investing'?

Do you assume they're sending munitions for free?

Aside from cheap oil and a fresh reminder that Western kit is pretty bad ***, what has this war given China?

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh goody, it was getting quiet in here…US bashing day.  

Naw, man.  You don't get to conflate the neocons and their aggressive and interventionist foreign policy with the U.S. as a whole.  The reality is, most Americans don't want what they're selling.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Yes, please tell us again how this was all the US’s fault for allowing former eastern bloc countries entry into a free and transparent collective defence treaty?

You dodged the question, Capt:

Why did Germany and France oppose extending NATO to Ukraine, if not for the prospect of this very war?

If it wasn't this outcome they foresaw and tried to avoid, then what was their reason?

Edited March 21, 2023 by Seminole

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Seminole said:

In what other sense does Russia have anything to offer China?

An interesting question I’ve been considering. We know Russia is providing more modern aircraft upgrades to Iran’s decrepit air force, in exchange for drones, ammunition, etc. But what does Russia have besides raw materials that China might want to cherry pick? Besides much longer development and experience with nuclear weapons of all classes (which is not trivial)? Nuclear submarines. Just speculating, but Russia/Soviet Union has a long history of developing and deploying generations of attack and ballistic nuke subs. It also has a vast trove of data derived from encounters with USN sub and surface fleet. And in all facets, what worked, what didn’t. It’s possible that China would welcome significant nuclear sub technology in exchange for…?

 

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

What evidence do you have that Russia launched this invasion to prevent Ukraine entering NATO?

The Russian response to the Joint Statement on U.S.-Ukraine relations, issued after meetings in September of 2021.

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

On the eve of the invasion, multiple European countries offered to guarantee Ukraine would be denied NATO membership. NATO membership has always been a far off prospect anyhow, considering how every member state is required to approve the accession of a new state.

Weird that the NYT reported it differently in March of 2022:

Even in January, a month before President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia began his full-scale invasion, tense talks among the United States, Russia and European members of NATO made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance.

Russia sought a UN registered treaty to turn Ukraine into a neutral akin to Cold War Austria.  We told'em to pound sand, so they pounded Ukraine instead. 

I'm sure John Bolton and Victoria Nuland would prefer the status quo over that alternative, but I'm not sure that would have been a worse outcome than what we have now.

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Seminole

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

The Baltic nations are more defensible and I have spoken with Russians over the years and they have a lot of distain for those societies. They don't believe they are worthy of being part of the Russian empire - at least not post-cold war.

Yeah but the Russian solution to thinking you aren't worthy is to invade the place, shoot everybody you really don't like, and send the rest of the population to Siberia to freeze and/or starve to death. The Balts know this, and that is why they have several percent of their GDP to Ukraine. Not several percent of the defense budgets, several percent of their GDP. They know exactly what the Russians would do if they could. It would be all the worse for them having the audacity to try and escape the Czars grip.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Wait for it...Cuba! 

I mean the U.S. has put up with them being idiots and worse for ever. 

[DesertFox]

41 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Well to quibble, he got Russia. He Russia'd himself. 

I believe a technical description is auto-copulation? He's certainly ****ing himself. 

Even better,  I found Putin's spirit animal,  the Antechinus. 

 

 

ROFL! 

[Haiduk]

Soldiers of new-formed 82nd air-assault brigade shoot from Stryker. In comments somebody told brigade completed own tarining and soon will arrive to Ukraine

 

[cesmonkey]

Google translation of Russia newswire story:

https://ria.ru/20230321/oruzhie-1859581976.html
Putin: Russia will be forced to respond to weapons with a nuclear component
 

Quote

“Today it became known that Great Britain, through the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Defense of the country, announced not only the supply of tanks to Ukraine, but also shells with depleted uranium. It seems that the West really decided to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian not in words, but in deeds ", Putin said.

 

[dan/california]

With all the other news this isn't getting enough attention.  Ukraines new Shaheed copies working isn't the most important part either, although it is a significant new capability. To hit these missile in transit implies Ukraine, or its friends, are literally reading the Russian military rail dispatch schedule in real time. Or that our satellite observation of the rail system is so good we might as well be. Either way that is a huge signal the Russians ought to be quitting now, because tomorrow will be even worse.

I wonder if the U.S. specifically forbade the Ukrainians from firing a bunch of them while Putin's body double was in Mariupol? I 100% agree with Ghirkin's bit about how to identify the real Putin by the way. Just examine the degree of paranoia on display.

[Haiduk]

Looks like yesterday strike on Dzhankoy was conducted with Mugin-5 (or similar type) long-range drones. Probably several of them didn't carry HE and were false targets for AD. One of such UAV was intercepted over the town

Acoording to posts of local citizens very doubtful that cargo of "Kalibr-NK" missiles was destroyed as calined GUR, but indeed theer were impacts in railway station area, were military echelone with vehicles stood in that time. Local publics claim that railway depo, power infrastructure were damaged, also some small fuels dtorage was hit, but there are no photos - police and military closed acces even to approaches to railway stattion. Probably something was destroyed of military vehciles, so they are removing it now.  Also no info about probable dameges on airfield, because there were several explosions in that side. 

Russian propaganda instead emphasizes as if Ukaraine attacked civilian targets. During low-altitude interceptions explosions of Pantsyr's missiles and debrises of shot down drones and missile fragments damaged several buildings in Dzhankot and outskirts, including building of technical college.

Drones carried "trollface" pictures ) 

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Tux]

Retracted. 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Tux
Pointless distraction

[cesmonkey]

Yesterday's announcement:

DOD Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3334472/dod-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

 

Quote

This authorization is the thirty-fourth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 and is valued at up to $350 million.

• Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm artillery rounds;
• 25mm ammunition;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• 81mm and 60mm mortar systems and mortar rounds;
• AT-4 anti-armor weapon systems;
• Grenade launchers, small arms, and associated ammunition;
• Demolition munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
• Mine clearing equipment;
• Heavy fuel tankers;
• Thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders; 
• Riverine patrol boats; 
• Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair; 
• Spare parts and other field equipment.

 

[Haiduk]

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-21-23/h_8445bd0ba3eae29072aae8a5f9979bf0

The US has changed course and is now providing Ukraine with 31 M1-A1 Abrams tanks instead of the newer M1-A2 variants previously planned, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said Tuesday.

“[A]fter further study and analysis on how best to do this, DoD in close coordination with Ukraine has made the decision to provide the M1-A1 variant of the Abrams tank, which will enable us to submit significantly expedite delivery timelines and deliver this important capability to Ukraine by the fall of this year,” Ryder said at a press conference. 

He added that the US would also be providing Ukraine with “advances armor and weapons systems” that are “very similar capability” to the M1-A2, including a .50-caliber heavy machine gun and 120 mm cannon.

 

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Seminole said:

What are they 'investing'?

Do you assume they're sending munitions for free?

Aside from cheap oil and a fresh reminder that Western kit is pretty bad ***, what has this war given China?

They are investing political capital and risk.  Seriously, what are they teaching these days.  China swinging support for Russia could very well cost them a lot in the end.  It might shake fence sitters to act (of which my own nation is member), it may create more unity and resolve in the west to actually stand up and do something.

Beyond that, they are risking dependence on all that cheap oil, which is all pointing westward right now, so the infrastructure bill is not going to be small to get it all going east...let's start with that.  Then say they get their hands on that sweet dino-juice and start to expand on that energy...it is still under the feet of a highly unstable nation with an epic insecurity complex.

I am not sure what they teach in university these days but the reality is that nothing is for free.  China is going to have to invest heavily in propping Russia up and it extends well beyond this war.  Frankly making Russia their problem is a great idea for the west but I am not sure it is going to stick.

20 minutes ago, Seminole said:

You dodged the question, Capt:

Why did Germany and France oppose extending NATO to Ukraine, if not for the prospect of this very war?

If it wasn't this outcome they foresaw and tried to avoid, then what was their reason?

Uh, I dunno...gas prices maybe.

 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220404-merkel-defends-2008-decision-to-block-ukraine-from-nato

https://www.thestar.com/politics/2022/04/09/mackay-recalls-the-french-german-nato-no-to-ukraine-that-zelenskyy-denounced.html?rf

I am not dodging the question, I am supremely bored by it.  It is the same finger pointing and dithering that got us here in the first place.  You have just conducted one of those drive bys I was talking about earlier - "Here is what a poll said (no link or sources) and here is what I think, so there".  

Now as to dodging questions, why don't you answer this one: what possible proof do you have that Russia would have played by the rules and not invaded Ukraine, or anywhere in Eastern Europe for that matter?  What indication from going all the way back to 2008 did Russia give that would indicate they could be a trustworthy player in this game and would operate in good faith.

I call BS.  The Germans and French were not blocking Ukraine "for the peace of all mankind", they were worried about the fact they we literally neck deep in Russian energy dependency (there is that investment risk thing again) and were more likely worried about the impact pulling Ukraine into NATO would have on that, than any high handed morale "let's not start a war" nonsense.

(Did not age well, man did they read this one wrong - but numbers do not lie)  https://energytransition.org/2014/03/closer-look-at-german-energy-dependence-on-russia/

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-eus-energy-dependency/

So if you want to do revisionist history and try and say "Germany and France opted for peace, and not gas, back in '08, and 14 and in pre-invasion 22" well over you to actually use an internet search engine and prove it.