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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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10 hours ago, Gpig said:

Does it seem strange to anyone else that there's all this audio accompanying the long-distance drone video that includes the sound of foot-falls and dirt/debris sliding etc. Seems like it's been dubbed overtop. Unless they've got a microphone on the treeline or something . . .

I think I've seen something like that before where the sounds of the artillery shells detonating happen at the exact same time as the visual, even though it's being filmed from over a kilometre away (or more). The sound of the artillery shell sounds like a canned SF/X.  Neither here nor there, but the post-production on some of these clips (w/music and atmospheric winds etc.), are definitely pushing a kind of information warfare)

Yes, this is a feature of K-2 videos ) There are jokes that their "sound producers" level is close to Nolan's "Dunkirk".  You can watch full video, when attack only had been starting - how the sound is changing in dynamics ). This is not information warfare, this is just "look, how we cool". Some units seriously carry on about own PR and try to make own "blockbusters" or at least conduct intensive activity in social medias. More PR, more cool videos with dead Russians, then you   can get more donations in less time

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4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, this is a feature of K-2 videos ) There are jokes that their "sound producers" level is close to Nolan's "Dunkirk".  You can watch full video, when attack only had been starting - how the sound is changing in dynamics ). This is not information warfare, this is just "look, how we cool". Some units seriously carry on about own PR and try to make own "blockbusters" or at least conduct intensive activity in social medias. More PR, more cool videos with dead Russians, then you   can get more donations in less time

It is no different than people putting Rammstein, AC/DC, Ukrainian techno funk, or any other music in the background.  People are not accustomed to "silent movies", so SOMETHING is put into the audio track to keep our ears interested.  And of course, there are plenty of memes about the bad choices for audio :)

Steve

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This commentary is sort of in line with some of the discussion over the weekend:

But while Putin is searching for allies who can send weapons, boost trade or at least support him in global forums, for Xi, the visit seems more about positioning Beijing globally than about Russia or Ukraine, said Aleksei Chigadayev, a China analyst at Leipzig University and former lecturer at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics who left Russia because of the invasion.

“It’s a demonstration to the world, ‘We can mediate in international conflicts, and we are a reliable partner,’” Chigadayev said of Xi’s visit.

It is also a warning, he said, to Washington on the need to negotiate with Beijing and to Europe on China’s importance as a major global power. He added that the visit sends a message to Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East that China is a more viable source of support than the United States.

Xi may also be intent on demonstrating to Putin that if there is a new world order, then China will lead it.

Putin is a tool in more ways than one:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-xi-visits-russia-putin-sees-his-anti-us-world-order-taking-shape/ar-AA18PgUC

China, on the other hand, has bigger fish to fry:

"Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, yearning to keep the lights on and have clean water for free."

Edited by kevinkin
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"Good" background for visit Xi to Putin. 

In CAR armed group attacked golden mine, belonged to China and killed nine Chineese employees. Allegedly attackers were from PMC Wagner, who maintain Prigozhyn's mining in this country: https://apnews.com/article/chinese-killed-central-african-republic-rebels-mine-d8b3a467dc3c8faf0627fb16cc3104ed

Изображение

Some sources told Prigozhyn and his "Concord" company has up to 250 millions $ yearly from resourses and gold mining in Africa. 

Edited by Haiduk
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11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

"Good" background for visit Xi to Putin. 

In CAR armed group attacked golden mine, belonged to China and killed nine Chineese employees. Allegedly attackers were from PMC Wagner, who maintain Prigozhyn's mining in this country: https://apnews.com/article/chinese-killed-central-african-republic-rebels-mine-d8b3a467dc3c8faf0627fb16cc3104ed

Изображение

Some sources told Prigozhyn and his "Concord" company has up to 250 millions $ yearly from resourses and gold mining in Africa. 

I wonder if the Prigster is trolling Putin... Gimme what I want or I **** up your China lifeline...

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16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Allegedly attackers were from PMC Wagner,

According to Armed men kill nine Chinese nationals in Central African Republic | Central African Republic | The Guardian it was allegedly a group called the Coalition of Patriots for Change. Got to admit my knowledge of the CAR war is not what it could be and I have no idea what relationship (if any) the CPC has with Wagner. 

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13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

2.  Reminder of the side effects of poorly trained vehicle crews (in this case 3rd Army Corps):

My partner has an expression she uses whenever I say something dumb: "when you hear hoof beats approaching, is it zebras or horses?" In other words, from the evidence available (hoof beats), what is  the most likely answer (a herd of horses, or a herd of zebra). I don't live in Africa, so it's horses.

Soldiers crash vehicles all the time. All. The. Time. Combine testosterone with fatigue and pressure and poor handling characteristics and ****ty roads, and that isn't really surprising. There is, for example, any number of images of Abrams in the ditches and canals of Iraq, which probably weren't there due to poor training.

I'm happy this vehicle crashed (out of action is out of action, regardless of how it got to be that way) but I'd hesitate to put it down to a training issue.

Horses and zebras.

Edited by JonS
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1 minute ago, JonS said:

My partner has an expression: "when you hear hoof beats approaching, is it zebras or horses?" In other words, from the evidence available (hoof beats), what is  the most likely answer (a herd of horses, or a herd of zebra). I don't live in Africa, so its horses.

Soldiers crash vehicles all the time. All. The. Time. Combine testosterone with fatigue and pressure and poor handling characteristics and ****ty roads, and that isn't really surprising. There's, for example, any number of images of Abrams in ditches and canals in Iraq, which probably aren't due to poor training.

I'm happy this vehicle crashed (out of action is out of action, regardless of how it got to be that way) but I'd hesitate to put it down to a training issue.

Horses and zebras.

It is still an excellent example of non-combat attrition, though. As you just said, soldiers crash vehicles all the time. I doubt it is better in army famous for its vodka problem. It is just an example that happened to make Oryx's list. For an army that is already running short of most everything it matters.

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Good summary here today as it details what seems to have happened at Bakhmut, w counterattack in SW to push RU from the good road.  Shows some videos we've seen before, plus one of a bunch of HUMMVs & MRAPS (I think) on side of road allegedly toward Bakhmut.  The writer is concerned this might mean UKR is pulling forces away from later counterattack to help Bakhmut, though I am less concerned.  We're still in March and if this unit doesn't get chewed up then it could still be available.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/19/2159163/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-retakes-some-ground-around-Bakhmut-but-end-goal-is-unclear

With Wagner having weakened itself and advanced into new terrain, Bakhmut might be a good place to run some small counteroffensives for killing baddies and easing Bakhmut situation while getting some really good on the job offensive experience for forces and command systems.  

Horses and zebras from JonS, I think I'm gonna pilfer that one, it's good.  Like when a satellite fell out of the sky in the 90s over the NW USA and my idiot oldest brother called to see if I had witnessed the UFO event.  "couldn't possibly be a satellite!".  Of course,  space aliens is such a more likely explanation, especially considering the fact it was announced beforehand.  He was Qanon before there was a Qanon, a real innovator.  Of course hoofbeats are zebras! -- they just want you to believe it's horses because they don't want to start a panic!

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33 minutes ago, Eddy said:

According to Armed men kill nine Chinese nationals in Central African Republic | Central African Republic | The Guardian it was allegedly a group called the Coalition of Patriots for Change. Got to admit my knowledge of the CAR war is not what it could be and I have no idea what relationship (if any) the CPC has with Wagner. 

Found this BBC article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65012606 Relevant excerpt:

China's President Xi Jinping says the killers of nine Chinese goldmine workers in the Central African Republic (CAR) must be "severely" punished.

Two Chinese workers were also wounded when gunmen stormed a mining site near the central town of Bambari on Sunday.

The local mayor blamed a rebel group for the killings.

But the rebels said Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group were behind the attack.

The Wagner group has not yet commented on the claim.

Its fighters are widely reported to have been deployed to mineral-rich CAR to help government forces defeat the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), an alliance of rebel groups.

So looks like Wagner and CPC are on opposite sides, and both sides are trying to blame the other for the attack.

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2 hours ago, JonS said:

My partner has an expression she uses whenever I say something dumb: "when you hear hoof beats approaching, is it zebras or horses?" In other words, from the evidence available (hoof beats), what is  the most likely answer (a herd of horses, or a herd of zebra). I don't live in Africa, so it's horses.

Soldiers crash vehicles all the time. All. The. Time. Combine testosterone with fatigue and pressure and poor handling characteristics and ****ty roads, and that isn't really surprising. There's, for example, any number of images of Abrams in ditches and canals in Iraq, which probably aren't due to poor training.

I'm happy this vehicle crashed (out of action is out of action, regardless of how it got to be that way) but I'd hesitate to put it down to a training issue.

Horses and zebras.

I will see your zen-like saying and raise you another one...

“Luck has a peculiar habit of favoring those who don’t depend on it.“'

Or any other similar saying that describes luck as being determined by deliberate actions, not random rolls of the dice.

In this case we of course have NO idea how skilled that specific truck driver was or if ANY driver could have avoided crashing.  Obviously.

My point is that the less trained your force is in driving very large equipment around in difficult circumstances, the more likely that equipment will get damaged or worse.  Poorly trained forces don't just walk into ambushes or abandon their positions, they also crash million Dollar vehicles more than their better trained equivalents.  Since logistics is generally underappreciated by commentators, I thought it was a good time to remind people that it's not all about the trenches.

To put that in the context of your partner's saying, my point is if you stupidly put yourself in the path of a heard of stampeding animals because you don't know any better, it doesn't really matter of they are horses or zebras as neither of them will take your safety into consideration as they go about their business.

Steve

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Another video from 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (Azov):
Probing a defensive russian positions. (23.03.2023)

No english subtitles, but in short: UAF try to convince wagner to surrender - they rejected the opportunity and were destroyed.

 

Edited by _Morpheus_
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3 hours ago, JonS said:

My partner has an expression she uses whenever I say something dumb: "when you hear hoof beats approaching, is it zebras or horses?" In other words, from the evidence available (hoof beats), what is  the most likely answer (a herd of horses, or a herd of zebra). I don't live in Africa, so it's horses.

Soldiers crash vehicles all the time. All. The. Time. Combine testosterone with fatigue and pressure and poor handling characteristics and ****ty roads, and that isn't really surprising. There's, for example, any number of images of Abrams in ditches and canals in Iraq, which probably aren't due to poor training.

I'm happy this vehicle crashed (out of action is out of action, regardless of how it got to be that way) but I'd hesitate to put it down to a training issue.

Horses and zebras.

It is neither. Just a couple guys banging coconuts 

ninja’d by yet. Good job my man. 

Edited by sburke
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1 minute ago, JonS said:

A day late, @sburke , and a dollar short. Again. @Yet beat you to it, and with more style.

Yes he did. I bow to superior response abilities. My excuse is I am sitting at the airport waiting for them to replace our plane.  And here it comes from the hanger. Damn this one looks crappy. Needs a paint job for sure and I’m a bit nervous about the more important components. Maybe I’ll see if they can get some African swallows to help it gain lift. 

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8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Dzhankoi, most likely drone attack

 

 

More videos

Drone strike, you can hear the same "moped" sound. There is a joke now about "Shakheds" uprising %)

Loclas write they heard 7-9 explosions and sounds of guns (Pantsyr S1 work). At this time no exact information where was directed this strike. Some locals write they heard and seen explosions on railway station (Dzankoi is a large railway node), other write they heard explosions in airfield area.  

 

Edited by Haiduk
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8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

was this posted? Also, Crimea, explosions are being reported at a railway junction/airfield? 

 

 

Fighterbomber TG has opinion this was UKR jet, which could train interception of "Shakeds" on "Bayraktar" 

Edited by Haiduk
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2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://m.jpost.com/international/article-734917/amp

Biggest head to fall in Moscow so far.

Zolotov is long time Putin most inner circle guy. Trusted guy with long long history.

He is not powerful himself like Shoigu but Putins lapdog.

 

Screenshot_20230320-223853.png

I think there's a translation issue here.  It should say "Russian Nat Guard General Wins Medal for Taking Large Bribes".  Since when is corruption a negative thing under Putin?

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3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think there's a translation issue here.  It should say "Russian Nat Guard General Wins Medal for Taking Large Bribes".  Since when is corruption a negative thing under Putin?

Benefit of mafia state. Everyone is a criminal that can be put to justice if so willed by the bigger boss.

I am sure the corruption has nothing to do with the real reasons for this move.

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