How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

23 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I'm gonna put my spring/summer offensive cards on the table.  Here's what I think UKR will do. 

Assumptions:

1.  most of RU excess combat power (armor & arty) is currently in Donbas front.  By excess, I mean power beyond what's needed to hold that front if it's relatively quiet.

2.  That excess combat power could be ~quickly moved toward either Svatove front or Melitopol front since centrally located.

3.  UKR will want to get that excess combat power committed to either extreme of the front and attack at the other end

So I think UKR will:

1.  attack toward Melitopol, since that's what Putin will most fear.  The attack must be powerful enough and look real enough for Putin to start freaking out -- always good to have the dictator deciding military movements.  Putin would overcompensate his excess combat power to the far western extreme of the line.

2.  Once Putin commits, UKR will attack at the other extreme of the line along Svatove-Starobilsk line.  RU will have to move its excess combat power the maximum distance to reach  the area for support.

3.  If Starobilsk is taken, UKR goes on defensive here, since have cut major RU supply line.  

4.  UKR resumes attack on the western extreme toward Melitopol.  

The problem is that this requires splitting offensive force.  But the key is that the split forces will not be facing RU reserves, which are at the other end of the line.  When RU reserves show up & things get hard, the other end of the line attacks. 

Maybe UKR does not have enough combat power for this, but attack #1 might go one for a month starting in May before attack #2 starts in June or July, giving more time for the new units to become available.  

TheCapt et al should have a field day with this.  I am actually interested in finding out just how bad an idea this is and why, but it's the best I have right now. 

I think you have that backwards, Tbh.

  If your true prize is Melitopol then you don't want the MoD paying any attention there,  at all. You want to make it easy for them to make a mistake and misdirect their reserves posture,  ie to the North.

So you could push hard back into Luhansk,  encouraging the Ivan to fight there as its CoG is just south,  at Donetsk. 

But you also amp up corroding the logistics infrastructure around Melitopol. This both "softens"  the target and encourages the MoD to naturally focus and develop its LoCs further north, shifting yet more personell and gear up there. 

Once committed up there then you hit to Melitopol,  right to the coast. 

 

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Hints were not about withdrawal %)

But that's my point. An "apparent"  ZSU offensive. 

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Spuds. 

Enjoy and no you don't get dessert. 

What on earth did they eat in Ireland before potatoes came ~year 1500?  If eating endless potatoes was a step up from previous cuisine, that musta been bad stuff (totally kidding).  Speaking of that, what did russians do before they had potatoes to make vodka?  

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

What on earth did they eat in Ireland before potatoes came ~year 1500? 

Irish Stew minus the potatoes. Barley and oaths instead.

Edited March 8, 2023 by chuckdyke

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I think you have that backwards, Tbh.

  If your true prize is Melitopol then you don't want the MoD paying any attention there,  at all. You want to make it easy for them to make a mistake and misdirect their reserves posture,  ie to the North.

So you could push hard back into Luhansk,  encouraging the Ivan to fight there as its CoG is just south,  at Donetsk. 

But you also amp up corroding the logistics infrastructure around Melitopol. This both "softens"  the target and encourages the MoD to naturally focus and develop its LoCs further north, shifting yet more personell and gear up there. 

Once committed up there then you hit to Melitopol,  right to the coast. 

 

My reason for faking toward Melitopol was because it's exactly what RU expects the most and fears the most.  And it's probably a very hard nut to crack.  But get breakthrough all the way to Starobilsk and then (as you say) the true prize of Melitopol gets weakened as panicky Putin shifts forces.  I would actually keep the corrosion quiet in the north until I was somewhat close to jumping off.  And like Haiduk, this is where I'd put whatever new forces were coming online, hopefully w NATO IFVs & some Leos.  (and w the T62s showing up on RU side I suppose Leo1s are in fashion also)

TheCapt did not destroy my conjectured plan.... yet.  This is a big day for me 

Crossing Dnieper seems to me crazy.  That's a very wide river, upriver.  And downriver it's a mess of marsh & islands & channels.  

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

What on earth did they eat in Ireland before potatoes came ~year 1500?  If eating endless potatoes was a step up from previous cuisine, that musta been bad stuff (totally kidding).  Speaking of that, what did russians do before they had potatoes to make vodka?  

Ireland is an... wait for it... Island.  It has.. wait for it... a coast.

Drunken Irish Mussels in Guinness Sauce | McCallum's Shamrock Patch (themccallumsshamrockpatch.com)

Irish Seafood Chowder - a traditional creamy Irish seafood soup with bits! (recipesformen.com)

Irish Roasted Salmon Recipe - Food.com

St Patrick's day is coming - eat something other than corned beef and cabbage.  that is an american thing.

The Origins and History of Corned Beef and Cabbage (hvmag.com)

Corned beef and cabbage’s popularity took shape during Irish immigration to the United States. Pork was the preferred meat in Ireland since it was cheap — if you’ve ever been to an Irish diner you’ve most likely seen Irish bacon on the menu. In Ireland, the high price of cattle meant the animals weren’t slaughtered for food unless they were old or injured; they were too important for milk and dairy production and farming. In contrast, beef was inexpensive in the United States.

When the Irish immigrated to the U.S., they often faced discrimination and lived in slums alongside Jewish and Italian groups. It was at Jewish delis and lunch carts that the Irish experienced corned beef and noticed its similarity to Irish bacon. Cooking the corned beef with cabbage was another choice based on cost efficiency. Even better, the entire meal could be cooked in one pot, making it cheap, easy to prepare, and, let’s not forget, — tasty.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

[Beleg85]

Pretty surreal scene. Clip of UA soldier talking with Russian behind the wall.

Ukrainian ask him why he come to his home, telling him what to do, how to live, where to **** (!) and where to eat. That he is in his home and there are his rules. "How can you just go into your neighbour, hit him in the face and tell "it is my room now."? We will not bow, f...k, and hit your face when attacked. We would do that to Yanukovycz, but he escaped." Later gunfire emerges.

Reportedly Ukrianian was wounded in the effect, but this strange situation would look like tragicomedy if not suffering.

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

the Irish experienced corned beef and noticed its similarity to Irish bacon

Coming back to this thread after a short break, I think you may be straying off-topic here .  And if corned beef tastes like bacon that's a bit worrying - it shouldn't, except that it's got a lot of salt (and fat).  UK perspective obviously, over and out .

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Thomm said:

because I was kind of tired of eating meat all the time.

Heh. A couple of years ago I had a similar thing happen at the Gasthof "Zum Stich´n" in Grafenwöhr. After a week of eating nothing but meaty meatiness, my eye was struck by the promise of a jaegersalat. Great! I thought, fresh raw vegetables! Maybe I can have a normal poo tomorrow!

Alas.

The salat consisted of lightly pickled layers of thinly sliced cold beef with a few stray bits of an onion that must've gotten lost on its way through the kitchen. I think I cried a little when it landed on the table and I realised what it was.

Edited March 8, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

Didn't their forefathers fight with pitchforks?

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russian-military-shovels-combat-ukraine/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

[kevinkin]

Have spent weeks in Ireland and the food is exceptional. Mild climate, surrounded by ocean, crisscrossed with abundant fields loaded with lamb and salmon smoke houses. Add in some training on the continent and voilà. The place is actually worth a trip just for the food. 

[sburke]

little did I know what I would cause by bringing up squirrel meat.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Speaking of that, what did russians do before they had potatoes to make vodka?  

Black bread and bitterness...

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I suspect any staggered withdrawal will be "hidden"  behind apparent local offensive(s), which will switch to staged rear guard actions as the bubble contracts. 

The great thing is if they go in with this as their primary objective, but the counter punches produce great results, they do have the option to remain in Bakhmut.  It's a win-win for the operation either way.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

OK, we're all hungry now and wishing we weren't sending so many things to Ukraine because squirrel is kinda tough chewing.  Russian TV is spot on as always.  So let's move away from the culinary stuff and back to the war.

Thanks,

Steve

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, we're all hungry now and wishing we weren't sending so many things to Ukraine because squirrel is kinda tough chewing.  Russian TV is spot on as always.  So let's move away from the culinary stuff and back to the war.

Thanks,

Steve

Why though? I thought this forum was Cooking Mission: Bavarian Sausage?

[Fenris]

From bad to wurst.  Sorry, sorry, I'll get my coat.

 

[pintere]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well I am not a big proponent of predictions but since we are being compared to Kofman and crew, let me make one.  The RA is building up to another collapse - when and where are pretty much up in the air but we will be the first to know.  How is getting clearer by the day.

Agreed.  We'd know even more if we better understood what Russia was trying to do with the attacks in January.  Spoilers or serious effort to take terrain?  My guess is they tried hard to make gains and just couldn't do it.  Which indicates that their offensive capabilities are totally spent.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The only question is, "will it be a full strategic collapse or another operational one?"  My bet is on operational.  The RA is going to hold onto Donetsk and Luhansk (the cities) until the dirty end.  Crimea we have talked about.  But I know Steve has been aching for a strategic one for some time now, maybe his day has dawned. 

Yeah, I would love to see a strategic collapse.  I'm on the fence about it only because so far Russia has managed to clog up Ukraine's offensive activities with bodies.  With that in mind...

It is a fact (I strongly believe it to be, anyway) that Russia is running out of everything it normally relies upon to keep its crap infantry from being wiped out.  Specifically, armored vehicles and artillery.  This means its infantry will have to fight largely on its own.  For a time this might be difficult for Ukraine to deal with as they are pretty well dug in, but not for too long.  I'd put this somewhere between Kherson and Kharkiv ops in terms of difficulty for UA.

What does Russia have to compensate for the lack of artillery and armor?  Raw infantry with very light arms.  They will have to die in large numbers to hold anything, but they might be willing to do this at first.

If the UA can trash Russia's lines and advance significantly into territory held since March 2022, things are going to be really bad back in Russia.  Putin will need to stabilize the situation and the only way to do that is another mobilization and untrained Human waves.  Likely on a larger scale than last Fall.

Decision point #1 - will Russians put up with another couple hundred men rounded up and thrown into Ukraine to stop an advancing Ukraine?  That's the big one that will decide if this is an operational or strategic collapse.

Decision point #2 - is Russia even capable of putting together another mass mobilization given all the problems it had with the last one?  Soldiers had to equip themselves except for small arms.  Does Russia even have small arms sufficient to outfit another couple hundred thousand men?  Does it have the means of grabbing what will likely be a less compliant batch of cannon fodder?  If Russia can't get armed men in large numbers flowing into the combat zone within weeks or maybe a month, they're going to be in even worse shape than after Kharkiv.

Either one of these could be the basis for a strategic collapse in my view.  A combination of both, obviously, could have the same effect.

This is going to be a very interesting next couple of months.

Steve

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Agreed.  We'd know even more if we better understood what Russia was trying to do with the attacks in January.  Spoilers or serious effort to take terrain?  My guess is they tried hard to make gains and just couldn't do it.  Which indicates that their offensive capabilities are totally spent.

Yeah, I would love to see a strategic collapse.  I'm on the fence about it only because so far Russia has managed to clog up Ukraine's offensive activities with bodies.  With that in mind...

It is a fact (I strongly believe it to be, anyway) that Russia is running out of everything it normally relies upon to keep its crap infantry from being wiped out.  Specifically, armored vehicles and artillery.  This means its infantry will have to fight largely on its own.  For a time this might be difficult for Ukraine to deal with as they are pretty well dug in, but not for too long.  I'd put this somewhere between Kherson and Kharkiv ops in terms of difficulty for UA.

What does Russia have to compensate for the lack of artillery and armor?  Raw infantry with very light arms.  They will have to die in large numbers to hold anything, but they might be willing to do this at first.

If the UA can trash Russia's lines and advance significantly into territory held since March 2022, things are going to be really bad back in Russia.  Putin will need to stabilize the situation and the only way to do that is another mobilization and untrained Human waves.  Likely on a larger scale than last Fall.

Decision point #1 - will Russians put up with another couple hundred men rounded up and thrown into Ukraine to stop an advancing Ukraine?  That's the big one that will decide if this is an operational or strategic collapse.

Decision point #2 - is Russia even capable of putting together another mass mobilization given all the problems it had with the last one?  Soldiers had to equip themselves except for small arms.  Does Russia even have small arms sufficient to outfit another couple hundred thousand men?  Does it have the means of grabbing what will likely be a less compliant batch of cannon fodder?  If Russia can't get armed men in large numbers flowing into the combat zone within weeks or maybe a month, they're going to be in even worse shape than after Kharkiv.

Either one of these could be the basis for a strategic collapse in my view.  A combination of both, obviously, could have the same effect.

This is going to be a very interesting next couple of months.

Steve

Don't leave out the fact that they have virtually no competent pre war trained infantry left either. The decision to waste however many of them got out of Kherson for trivial or non existent gains in the Donbas will go down as one of the worst command decisions, even in a war full of very bad ones. It is one thing to have a battalion of a thousand mobiks with a command cadre of 50, or even 25 VDV guys trying to keep the wrambling wreck on the road. When the "cadre" are two or three  alcoholic fifty somethings who might-maybe went to a military academy thirty years ago. And then got cashiered as lieutenants for that aforementioned drinking problem, there will be no stopping the running once it starts.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Spuds. 

Enjoy and no you don't get dessert. 

Belfast bap I suppose.

[Beleg85]

It seems tonight is massive strike night. A lot of hits in Kharkiv, some in Kremenczuk, Kyiv, Odessa, also in the western part of the country over Moldova.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/08/us-weapons-manufacturing-ukraine/

They still don't get it. You need stockpiles that can sustain a full scale war for AT LEAST eighteen months. While we are at it we might consider making munnitions plants that are not 70 years out of date. 

Quote

“It is a wake-up call,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in an interview, referring to the production problems the war has exposed. “We have to have an industrial base that can respond very quickly.”

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

They still don't get it. You need stockpiles that can sustain a full scale war for AT LEAST eighteen months. While we are at it we might consider making munnitions plants that are not 70 years out of date. 

 

 

Precisely. Si vis pacem, para bellum (if you want peace, prepare for war).

If NATO had done this, the war in Ukraine would have been over by now.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Aragorn2002