How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

I am finding this gentleman's tactical analysis to be a must read

 

The russians are transitioning from larger structures, such as BTGs, to smaller, more agile assault units. However, they still rely heavily on artillery support. It is uncertain if they have enough scarce weapons like 2S9, mortars, AGS, and ammo to equip all units.

Assault units, named "Storm" are combined units forming from more capable servicemen inside existing brigades/regiments and use available vehicles and assets of these units. This is not new "over-shtat" units, which demand new equipment.

[DesertFox]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

I wonder if the WSJ has disgruntled "source" that is pushing a pro Russian line for whatever reason? I mean Tucker Carlson works for the same boss. 

 

Seems like you have had the correct gut feeling. Looks like the "story" is falling apart:

 

 

[Bil Hardenberger]

6 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

I am finding this gentleman's tactical analysis to be a must read

in the comments he foresee that these adaptations won't be very successful (?) in light of the top-down approach that dominates the Russian Army.

I think this links up nicely the ongoing conversation about the duality of mission and direct command with a case study that is quite fresh. In this case, DC is needed to allocate the resources (manpower, supporting arms) that make up these units. Obviously, MC kicks in when these formations are set in motion (much like a robot but made by people and "dumb" vehicles and weapons) and they need to handle whatever contingencies follow from engaging the enemy (e.g. interesting to see the allocation of a demining vehicle).

This is an example of adaptation rather than devolution. It's not clear though that they can  implement it well due to materiel and personnel issues. But clearly there is someone, somewhere with both brains and time to come up with ideas...

 

 

Really short on infantry... each Assault Company comes with what looks like two Assault Platoons of 10 to 11 men on four BMP/BMD, etc. and 12 flamethrowers (actually these units are equipped with the RPO hand held thermobaric launchers) which I'm sure ideally would be spread throughout those 20-22 infantrymen... which would give the Battalion sized Assault Detachment from 60-66 infantry... thin.

I doubt the ability of this formation to really hold any ground it might take. At least the Russians are trying to adjust to the conditions, but I have doubts as to how successful it would be.

There must be a higher level HQ over these Battalion sized Assault Detachments... did I miss that somewhere in that link? Where are they getting their ISR from? Coordination with neighboring formations? Logistics coordination?

@kevinkin let us know how your experiments go.

[DesertFox]

In case someone had any doubts:

Nine years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea – a clear violation of international law and of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.  The United States welcomes the efforts of Ukraine’s Crimea Platform to focus global attention on Russia’s continued occupation.  The United States does not and never will recognize Russia’s purported annexation of the peninsula.  Crimea is Ukraine.

Crimea Is Ukraine - United States Department of State

[Haiduk]

Belarusian journalist Anton Motolko and Belarusian initiative BYPOL claimed that today's morning as if two explosion were heard on Machulishchi airfield, where Russian MiG-31-Kinzhal carriers are based. Also as if locals heard one more explosion in the night. No official information about this. Allegedly Russian military cargo plane was damaged as well as airfield snow-cleaning vehicles. 

https://t.me/By_Pol/616

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Also, Bakhmut from the pespective- city is being systematically destroyed, it's half wreck at that point.

 

This is Opytne settlement near Donetsk airfield.

[sburke]

6 hours ago, kraze said:

The question is why should somebody do anything about Belarus? It was their choice to become a russian ally, they picked their side, they helped russians cause a lot of warcrimes and still very actively do - so that path has its consequences.

Despite Belarus folks actually joining the Ukraine army to fight Russia.  RR sabotage to disrupt Russian troop movements.  Their own protest movement against the election stolen by Lukashenko....  

Quote

On 1 September 2020, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights declared that its experts received reports of 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of people who were arrested during the protests following the presidential election. The experts also received reports of violence against women and children, including sexual abuse and rape with rubber batons.[193] At least three detainees suffered injuries indicative of sexual violence in Okrestino prison in Minsk or on the way there. The victims were hospitalized with intramuscular bleeding of the rectum, anal fissure and bleeding, and damage to the mucous membrane of the rectum.[194] In an interview from September 2020 Lukashenko claimed that detainees faked their bruises, saying, "Some of the girls there had their butts painted in blue".[195]

The country has less than 10 million people.  Heck the SF, SJ Oakland area has as many people.  Nice of you to just write them off.

Edited February 26, 2023 by sburke

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

There must be a higher level HQ over these Battalion sized Assault Detachments...

As I said above, assault detachments have been establishing inside existing brigades/regiments, so they subordinated to own brigade/regimental HQs. This is just usual combined battalions with assault functions. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

42 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

@kevinkin let us know how your experiments go.

Thanks for the clarification on those flamethrowers. I guess Amazon won't deliver thermobaric launchers. But the Russians are still flaming a-holes. Not their great grandpas shock troops. 

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Whoever these NATO officials are, they seem to be saying we are with you for *just* one more major offensive. Not your wise “at least” one more. And oh, no NATO membership.

Ya not sure where this is coming from and why.  I mean the UA is holding on while the RA breaks itself (again), so it is logical that like last time they will follow up with an offensive - this cycle can repeat a few more times at least.  So I do not know where the crisis is in all this that would signal that Ukraine needs to sue for peace.  I am far more willing to believe that Russia is running to China for a solution as things on their end are more likely approaching breaking points.

NATO nations suddenly knocking knees does not track - sounds more like Russian wishful thinking to be honest. 

[danfrodo]

So, heavy fighting around Bakhmut w UKR counterattacks trying to push back some very menacing RU gains.  Maybe UKR will evacuate the city? 

But this all gets back to the big question, in my mind:  how strong is UKR military, offensively?  Are they doing Bakhmut w economy of force in order to build up units & stockpiles for spring offensive?  Or is this actually UKR doing its best? 

And for RU, is this RU firing off every shell and using every soldier to get as much land as possible before a hoped-for ceasefire?  Are these also spoiling attacks?  Does Putin think he'll have a month or two to recover & refresh & reposition before the ground dries? 

We just don't know.  I do know that knocking out RU's very vulnerable supply lines via those bridges would be a game changer.   Yet no ATACAMS. 

I wish the west would stop w the 'boiling the frog to avoid escalation" and quit holding back weapons that can make a difference.  The best thing for the world is to get as much UKR land back so that the war can 'end' w a mostly whole UKR that is strong enough to easily repel any of Putin's future adventures.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya not sure where this is coming from and why.  I mean the UA is holding on while the RA breaks itself (again), so it is logical that like last time they will follow up with an offensive - this cycle can repeat a few more times at least.  So I do not know where the crisis is in all this that would signal that Ukraine needs to sue for peace.  I am far more willing to believe that Russia is running to China for a solution as things on their end are more likely approaching breaking points.

NATO nations suddenly knocking knees does not track - sounds more like Russian wishful thinking to be honest. 

Yeah, I agree.  NATO is not losing its will.  Reading between the lines of every single statement made by every single official and journalist every hour is nonsense.  And there was just a UN vote that went insanely wrong for Putin, yet everyone is talking how so much of the world is pro-putin. 

[Haiduk]

UPD about claimed explosions on Belaruisain airfield Machulishchi

Belarusian sourse "Belaruskiy Gayun" claims A-50 "AWACS" can be damaged because of ammunition was dropped from the air. Likely drone attack. Still no confirmations. If this true, this can interfere to coming missile strike, because A-50 on the eve of strikes and during first salvo usually try to detect our AD positions. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

8 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

I am finding this gentleman's tactical analysis to be a must read

in the comments he foresee that these adaptations won't be very successful (?) in light of the top-down approach that dominates the Russian Army.

I think this links up nicely the ongoing conversation about the duality of mission and direct command with a case study that is quite fresh. In this case, DC is needed to allocate the resources (manpower, supporting arms) that make up these units. Obviously, MC kicks in when these formations are set in motion (much like a robot but made by people and "dumb" vehicles and weapons) and they need to handle whatever contingencies follow from engaging the enemy (e.g. interesting to see the allocation of a demining vehicle).

This is an example of adaptation rather than devolution. It's not clear though that they can  implement it well due to materiel and personnel issues. But clearly there is someone, somewhere with both brains and time to come up with ideas...

 

 

It looks like it's copied from a bound book, so it doesn't seem like something they just came up with in response to the current situation.  Is it an old soviet field manual that someone finally bothered to read?  It must have been in the "restricted" section of the library and nobody could get permission to check it out earlier.  And is there any evidence that the guys on the ground are doing any better than a half-assed job at implementing it, or getting any training in it that isn't live-fire on the two-way range?

 

[Haiduk]

Russian drone operator spotted UKR soldiers in the trench and asks either they have small arms only. Suddenly he spots one soldier has RPG-7 and exclaims "Granik! Granik! Granik!" (Rus. slang from "granatomyot" - grenade-launcher). He tries to target Russian tank at him, but tank shot somewhere forward and rolls along the trench, didn't spot UKR soldier. UKR soldier waited some time and shot at the back of turret. Enemy drone operator in desperation cries "Damn! He has RPG! He will shoot at your back!!! Bliad'...."

Mmmm... Armor Ark (forward) -> Hide ->  Delay 40s )))

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Ts4EVER]

How did they get that footage?

[akd]

This was posted on RU channels a earlier, I think.  Definitely not new.

[Ts4EVER]

Weird that they post a mess-up like that.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Weird that they post a mess-up like that.

Now some Russian milbloggers opened campaign against general Marzoyev, who commands Vuhledar operation and his command led to huge losses. They told Marzoyev in first days commanded by task force, advancing on Kherson and Mykolaiv and his stupid command also led to huge casualties, when he either directed large columns and its were struck by UKR aviation, or sent columns without recon and its were ambushed. 

So, Russian bloggers now issue some unseen footage of first days with Russian losses and tell some interest stories

Here is about 247th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division, which was ambushed 24th of Feb. Blogger says for two days regiment lost 76 KIA, 140 WIA, 9 combat vehicles. Regiment was directly subordinated to Marzoyev command.

Other story - eliminated pontoon column. Likely Russians prepared them for mulitiple canals crossings, or even crossing the Dnieper. Blogger warns Marzoyev, he has 5 Gb of such videos and he can issue it too

 

 

[Haiduk]

Drone carpet bomber )

Edited February 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

Explosions occur at Machulishchy airbase in Belarus, Russian aircraft damaged (yahoo.com)

As Haiduk reported, now in regular news.

Quote

 

Explosions occurred at the Machulishchy airbase in Minsk Oblast in Belarus on Sunday morning. There is information about a damaged Russian aircraft.

Source: Anton Motolko, a Byelorussian journalist, the BYPOL initiative

Details: Locals reported hearing two explosions at about 8:00-9:00 and may have heard another one during the night.

According to preliminary reports, the traffic police stopped the cars in several places around the airbase and checked the trunks and ID of the drivers. Later MAZ VV vehicles were spotted on the way to the airbase.

The BYPOL initiative reported that on Sunday morning two explosions occurred at the Machulishchy air base resulting in a Russian military and transport aircraft and snowplows being damaged.

Near the aforementioned airbase, local residents noticed a significant number of soldiers as well as traffic police crews that were checking all the passing cars.

It is from Machulishchy airfield that Kinzhal missile carriers usually take off, which is why Ukraine issued an air-raid warning.

 

 

[chrisl]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Drone carpet bomber )

After the war it can be repurposed for delivering drinks on the beach.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The russians are transitioning from larger structures, such as BTGs, to smaller, more agile assault units. However, they still rely heavily on artillery support. It is uncertain if they have enough scarce weapons like 2S9, mortars, AGS, and ammo to equip all units.

Assault units, named "Storm" are combined units forming from more capable servicemen inside existing brigades/regiments and use available vehicles and assets of these units. This is not new "over-shtat" units, which demand new equipment.

Hmm, so their divisions are basically taking all their best cadre and throwing them into high casualty close assaults?  Essentially a form of organisational autophagy.

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, so their divisions are basically taking all their best cadre and throwing them into high casualty close assaults? 

Yes. But "Shtorms" actions are not similar to Wagners meat waves.

PS. Part of UKR brigades since 2015 also have asasault companies in battalions. But this is unofficial. Just a company, which have more tough personnel and assigned for decisive actions. Such companies depending on tasks also can get additional heavy infantry weapon, tanks, etc. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

On 2/25/2023 at 6:08 AM, chuckdyke said:

Another escalation. Ukraine's secret weapon.

 

Nope, you mistake it for a shipment into Ukraine. It is actually a train load of looted Ukrainian tractors heading into Russia!