How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Ah, yes, I should've been more clear.  "in the field" meant all the pieces that go into having a trained & supplied and operational battalion sized unit, ready for battle w proper logistics tail.  Delivery & crew training could be happening but maintenence & logistics systems need to be set up in theater.   

Yes, I guess late summer or so might be realistic. It's really hard to say, and it also depends on what exactly Ukraine wants to do with these new mechanized formations with western kit. 

[danfrodo]

There was talk here recently that RU economy is just fine & dandy.  This fellow from Yale says this is just RU propaganda that's taken as fact and then used by IMF & world bank to say sanctions aren't working.  I've listening to this guy before and I believe him, but again it's confirmation bias.   

 

[sburke]

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

 

In October 2022, about eight months after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the University of Cambridge in the UK harmonized surveys that asked the inhabitants of 137 countries about their views of the West, Russia, and China. The findings in the combined study are robust enough to demand our serious attention.

that doesn't jive with the lopsided vote in the UN against Russia, Call me a skeptic when China's deals in Africa and Asia reveal themselves to be not much less of a rip off than colonialism.

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Ah, yes, I should've been more clear.  "in the field" meant all the pieces that go into having a trained & supplied and operational battalion sized unit, ready for battle w proper logistics tail.  Delivery & crew training could be happening but maintenence & logistics systems need to be set up in theater.   

Actually all this needs to be properly integrated in a brigade structure with mech.inf, arty and all the other logistic and support units. IIRC there will be two (?) new mech brigades formed. One with Leo IIs and the other with Leo 1A5s. Dunno about the timelines but don´t expect them to be operational before june. Maybe one of our ukrainian friends on this board has further details?

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

An ode to logistics today:  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/24/2154211/-The-Ukraine-war-is-a-story-about-logistics-and-it-s-still-playing-out-one-year-in

 

My friend, I think you need to get outside... (of that website). I mean that in sorta jest, but really as good faith encouragment. DK is fine(ish) but it has a strong inherent bias (as any website does,  to individual degrees). Surely you're looking elsewhere, to compare and contrast your own preconceptions? 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[sburke]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Thanks for responding.

...But if you're determined to believe the BRICS economies outweigh the G7, I can't really help you further. Have you spent time in any of those 5 countries? (3 for me).

same here and I'd suggest folks do a bit of traveling before swallowing data from a chart.

On another note it is worth looking at demographics to understand where China may be in the next 10 years.  It ain't looking pretty.

[sburke]

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders (yahoo.com)

Medvedev must be trying some new designer drugs.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

The western effort to ‘isolate’ Russia amounts to bifurcating the world economy as the ‘western’ share of the world economy continues to shrink in relative size.  
 

I forget the name of the agency created by the U.S. during WW2 to around the world and ‘buy up’ things that could be of value to the Axis powers.  We can’t really do a similar thing today.  
 

I was surprised to see that on GDP PPP basis the BRICS have overtaken the G7.  
 

 

I think you may need to watch Perun's video on Chinese defense industries, and what PPP really means, with numbers from real works sources. It doesn't cover everything ref that subject, stays within Defense sector but its very clear. We can apply the same principles to other sectors. 

Here you have a basic analysis that compares apples to apples,  but it's nowhere near that simplistic. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[Holien]

At my Wednesday night gaming club this week I was introduced to this game..

https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/247182/flashpoint-south-china-sea

About an hour to play and a good overview of the region for those who want to see what might be around the corner...

Not a military game and worth playing IMO...

 

 

[sburke]

Ukrainian soldiers with life-changing war injuries posed for portraits saying they are 'living monuments' of a brutal war (yahoo.com)

Pretty powerful.  So many have given so much.

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders (yahoo.com)

Medvedev must be trying some new designer drugs.

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

My friend, I think you need to get outside... (of that website). I mean that in sorta jest, but really as good faith encouragment. DK is fine(ish) but it has a strong inherent bias (as any website does,  to individual degrees). Surely you're looking elsewhere, to compare and contrast your own preconceptions? 

Yes, I look elsewhere, I have other sources .  The summaries here are normally good and clear and succinct w a bit of content that's I'd not seen here on the forum.   That's why I share them here sometimes.  

It's waaaaay liberal and I actually read very, very little of the content, though there's a few posters there I like that are smart w proven track record of being correct over time.  Overall it is admittedly what it is: a 100% pro-progressive politics community site.  It doesn't pretend to be unbiased, it's super biased -- it wants progressive dems to win.  Unlike propaganda sites masquerading as objective news organizations. 

I don't go here for information -- I go to journalists and professors and experts and historians, you know, evil people that actually 'know things'.   Sadly, for example, I am simply not smart enough to get my science knowledge or medical advice from FB comments section, but maybe one day I'll reach that intellectual pinnacle.

That doesn't change the fact that the UKR summaries are actually quite good.  For me on a work day, it's a quick spot for me to go for UKR updates, after quick perusal of the overnight forum posts.  

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by danfrodo

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Kinophile]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Ukrainian soldiers with life-changing war injuries posed for portraits saying they are 'living monuments' of a brutal war (yahoo.com)

Pretty powerful.  So many have given so much.

That's amazing work. 

The dying gaul pose is extremely powerful. 

Zelensky should get in on the public support and rehabilitation of the wars injured. 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It is rather sobering, isn't it?

Doesn't change anything though. Just shows we should be grateful for our friends and careful where we send our money to.

South Africa, in particular is asking to get a a lot less of it.

 

Quote

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1158169215/south-africa-joins-russia-and-china-in-naval-exercises

 

 

[Yet]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Right!?  I mean if this is really going to turn into a global Decision Point war, even the most backward insularism is going to be hard pressed to sell the rolling up of the USA as a viable strategy.  We very may well have lost interest in '24 if this was still "just Russia".  Throw in a real fight with China and the sleeping giant may actually fully awaken.

I hope the sleeping giant can then manage to awaken the army of Dunharrow in Brussels. 

[Ts4EVER]

3 hours ago, Seminole said:

The western effort to ‘isolate’ Russia amounts to bifurcating the world economy as the ‘western’ share of the world economy continues to shrink in relative size.  
 

I forget the name of the agency created by the U.S. during WW2 to around the world and ‘buy up’ things that could be of value to the Axis powers.  We can’t really do a similar thing today.  
 

I was surprised to see that on GDP PPP basis the BRICS have overtaken the G7.  
 

 

Yeah I've also been wondering if future history books won't call these sanctions the beginning of the end of the dollar's dominance of global economy.

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Yeah I've also been wondering if future history books won't call these sanctions the beginning of the end of the dollar's dominance of global economy.

name one currency you would trust more.

[riptides]

A tale of China and drones.

 

I once ordered a drone from China.

It was lacking an on/off switch. In order to power up for flight, you had to connect the battery while avoiding the propellers.

The simplest of things can be overlooked.

 

 

 

[Butschi]

16 minutes ago, Yet said:

I hope the sleeping giant can then manage to awaken the army of Dunharrow in Brussels. 

This is not about waking the EU, though. It is more about convincing everyone to commit economical suicide. We've discussed this a few times already but I still fail to see how the US could threaten EU to do that.

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So no big RU  murder-missile attack to celebrate the anniversary?  

Maybe the other way around and Ukraine will hand out some "celebration gifts" to the Orcs?

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

Well, it tells us that the rest of the world doesn't buy our pretty Sunday speeches, and rightly so. Our precious western values apply mostly to ourselves and definitely only extend to other regions of the world as far as they don't interfere with our interests. Which usually means we don't give a f*** about autocrats as long they are "our" autocrats and we don't care about human rights when cheap resources and workforce are better accessible without them.

That's why it means nothing to quite a few countries that we are democracies and China and Russia are not. For them it matters how they are treated and as a matter of fact, so far we have a worse track record.

What we should learn from that is that we shouldn't take it for granted that we are seen as the good guys and everyone gathers under our banner. If this is to become a clash of systems then we better make sure to win the hearts and minds of the rest of the world through deeds not words.

The Chinese and Wagner are both well along in the process of helping us with that. The Chinese have loaned out billions upon billion of dollars with their "Belt and Road Initiative". The countries that have borrowed it by and large don'y have the slightest hope of paying it back. They are going to find China's response to that little problem instructive. Wagner of course acts like Wagner as it props up bad governments all over Africa. I will leave the effect on Russia popularity long term to the readers imagination.

 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And this is a real problem when the higher formation commander knows more than the tactical commander.  Further higher formation commanders do not have time to justify or explain why lower echelons "have to follow orders they do not understand."

I suspect this is already happening in Ukraine.  Higher formation commanders have access to a full suite of western ISR and then integrated tactical feeds - so when that commander says "stop!" and the unit commander is all MC, which by definition allows a lower echelon to go against orders if they follow intent in a changing condition.  This can turn into herding cats pretty fast. 

The answer is to push all the same info to the tactical level but then we run into human brain limitations.  Lower echelons have their hands full are not really going be able to avail themselves of full SA and context all the time - it is why we invented higher echelons.  To the real risk of MC is empowering the people who know less about what is going on. 

As to UAs current situation, my best advice is to "keep doing what you are doing."  Whatever this thing is is working for them.

We should all remember that playing CM with one player per side is 1000% DC. 

1 hour ago, sburke said:

that doesn't jive with the lopsided vote in the UN against Russia, Call me a skeptic when China's deals in Africa and Asia reveal themselves to be not much less of a rip off than colonialism.

Most U.N. members are relatively small countries with at least one neighbor they don't necessarily get along with. There is some level of understanding about how bad it gets if might makes right without limit.

[sburke]

Explained: How Pakistan is following Sri Lanka's footsteps in China's debt trap (firstpost.com)

As per The Hong Kong Post, China has massively invested in over 150 countries with a majority of them being underdeveloped nations.

This allows it to portray itself as a Good Samaritan.

But this infrastructural investment gradually increases the debt of poor countries beyond repayment. This puts them in a phase of default ultimately compelling them to make strategic concessions to China.

This debt trap diplomacy of China is a trend observed across the globe in nations with low GDPs. The China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), a state-owned multinational engineering and construction firm, builds infrastructural projects and further expands China’s agenda with its 60 subsidiaries.

The latest of these patterns was seen in Sri Lanka, which as quoted by the report is neck-deep in debt to China, amounting to approximately $6.8 billion. China’s Export-Import Bank (EXIM) funded for construction of the ‘Hambantota International Port’ and the ‘Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport’ in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka then fell into a financial crisis causing the government unable to cover the project’s maintenance costs and interest despite the loan, and the country declared bankruptcy, defaulting on its sovereign debt, The Hong Kong Post reported.

Now, reports are emerging about how Beijing is standing in the way of Sri Lanka getting an IMF loan.

As this piece in The Diplomat noted, while Beijing has given Colombo relief from debt for two years, it has not agreed to provide financing.

Sri Lankan Minister of Transport & Highways and Mass Media, Bandula Gunawardena was quoted as saying by Daijjiworld, “China has informed government-appointed agencies assigned for the debt restructuring process that they will extend a two-year moratorium on debt repayment.”

This is stopping the IMF from coming to Sri Lanka’s aid.

Bradley Parks, the executive director of the AidData research group at William & Mary, told The Diplomat that countries for years “were getting to know China as the kind of benevolent financier of big-ticket infrastructure.”

However, now China is playing a very different role – the world’s largest debt collector.

[Butschi]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Chinese and Wagner are both well along in the process of helping us with that. The Chinese have loaned out billions upon billion of dollars with their "Belt and Road Initiative". The countries that have borrowed it by and large don'y have the slightest hope of paying it back. They are going to find China's response to that little problem instructive. Wagner of course acts like Wagner as it props up bad governments all over Africa. I will leave the effect on Russia popularity long term to the readers imagination.

The important term here is "are going to". So far they haven't and even if they are going to, I wouldn't count on these countries running back into our arms. As for Wagner: True, but I remember the Brasilian reaction when asking them to join the pro-Ukraine Camp. "Where was the West when the USA interfered in Middle and South America?" (Often militarily and quite against international law, one might add). This is not meant as whataboutism but there isn't all that much that China or Russia do that the West hasn't done before.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Butschi

[Jiggathebauce]

"This is stopping the IMF from coming to Sri Lanka’s aid"

LOL. This is the reason right here. The amount of projection is amazing.