How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).

Actually I don't disagree, but the problem isn't that we are giving money to Ukraine, it is that we don't support our own folks.  We could do both.  Why we don't take care of our own people is a domestic issue and really has nothing to do with Ukraine.  Frustrating?  Yes

As someone who's COBRA benefits are about to run out and I am now researching the medical care marketplace I have a strong opinion about how we take care of our own and who has effed that up, but that is for an offline discussion.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Thanks, Dan. As always you're too kind. I don't have the knowledge like some of the frequent posters here, but I'm convinced this is just the beginning of a very long and nasty story. 

Barring an attack of sense in Beijing, and the opposite seems to be happening, the lines of a new cold war are pretty clear. China, Russia, and Iran seem to moving towards forming a totalitarian block, with the U.S., EU, Japan, Australia, and South Korea on the other side. I think The_Capt spoke at some length about the extent to which the U.S. is twisting arms to get ducks in a row. 

Edit: Just to be clear Aragorn was responding to the other Dan.

Edited February 20, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

There was a Seymour Hersh decades ago who had some credibility as a journalist. Then he went so far off the rails of factual, evidence based, credible reporting he couldn’t get back. I thought he’d been dead for years. This must be some sort of last gasp by him to regain a sliver of recognition. This ties a bow on his shame.

I am willing to extend some benefit of the doubt that Hersh's single anonymous source was at least superficially credible, not some Twitter nutjob.  However, I am also willing to bet that whomever his source is has ties to the Kremlin in some form.  Or maybe it was just a Twitter nutjob.  Either way, basing an allegation like this on one source is a really bad journalistic practice to start with, but to not fact check the information provided?  That's incompetence or worse.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Barring an attack of sense in Beijing, and the opposite seems to be happening, the lines of a new cold war are pretty clear. China, Russia, and Iran seem to moving towards forming a totalitarian block, with the U.S., EU, Japan, Australia, and South Korea on the other side. I think The_Capt spoke at some length about the extent to which the U.S. is twisting arms to get ducks in a row. 

Edit: Just to be clear Aragorn was responding to the other Dan.

Answer nontheless appreciated, Dan.

[Battlefront.com]

  

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

Actually I don't disagree, but the problem isn't that we are giving money to Ukraine, it is that we don't support our own folks.  We could do both.  Why we don't take care of our own people is a domestic issue and really has nothing to do with Ukraine.  Frustrating?  Yes

As someone who's COBRA benefits are about to run out and I am now researching the medical care marketplace I have a strong opinion about how we take care of our own and who has effed that up, but that is for an offline discussion.

Here's the kicker.  For a government to "fix" a problem it needs to "own" the problem.  In real terms that means statutory authority, which is just another name for regulation.  This means more laws, more interference in markets, more exposure to political interference, and nearly always resulting additional costs on taxpayers.  Most of the problems the US has domestically are inherently fixable, but the large segment of US society that is against the government doing anything to fix the problems thwarts that.  The result is problems don't get addressed.

Steve

[JonS]

42 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

meanwhile, a small town in Ohio can't get the help it needs. 

I don't know the details, but I very strongly suspect that 'a small town in Ohio' *could* get aid if certain *cough*qanon*cough* senators and congressmen pulled their heads out of their asses.

It's not a financial binary - Ukraine or Ohio. It's a political binary - Biden doing good makes me look bad.

[Kinophile]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

Actually I don't disagree, but the problem isn't that we are giving money to Ukraine, it is that we don't support our own folks.  We could do both.  Why we don't take care of our own people is a domestic issue and really has nothing to do with Ukraine.  Frustrating?  Yes

As someone who's COBRA benefits are about to run out and I am now researching the medical care marketplace I have a strong opinion about how we take care of our own and who has effed that up, but that is for an offline discussion.

Caaaannnnaaadddaaaa..... Caaaaannnaaadaaa...heed her siren call... 

[JonS]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Caaaannnnaaadddaaaa..... Caaaaannnaaadaaa...heed her siren call... 

A bunch of grumpy old folks in exchange for Celine Dion and Justin Beiber?

Seems fair.

[NamEndedAllen]

12 hours ago, Sir Lancelot said:

There is an ancient Chinese proverb — “Cold the teeth shalt be when the lips demise.”  It means that when an ally is all that stands between you and a powerful foe, its demise will bring the flames of war to your lands and spell your own doom.  This proverb is known to every Chinese because it was the reason that Mao famously gave for sending troops to fight in Korea.  Xi and his cadre grew up with this proverb reverberating at their ears, and I’m certain that this is the chief reason on their mind for choosing to back Putin at this dire moment.

And here is an ugly scenario that must have occurred to some in Beijing. Trump again sweeps through the USA Republican primaries, because his enormous base is most concentrated in them. He runs on “Peace & Prosperity” and targets China and its trade policies as the real threat to the American Way of Life. His first act in office is as expected, dropping sanctions on Russia. He invites Putin to the WH. At their Press Conference, Trump carries out his threat to leave NATO and those “war mongering” European nations that keep dragging America into foreign wars.   A week later, Trump and Putin announce a new military and economic partnership, hailed by the Right Wing USA Congress. Rather than having the USA facing hostile powers on both the Pacific and the Atlantic, China sees itself sandwiched between the two big nuclear powers, who are also two of the three largest oil exporters on Earth. 
 

Couldn’t happen. But still, best to keep the USA just a bit off balance by not abandoning its long time Red ally, in its great time of need. 

[sburke]

Just now, JonS said:

A bunch of grumpy old folks in exchange for Celine Dion and Justin Beiber?

Seems fair.

do we have to exchange for Bieber?  Can we swap him out for Rush?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

A bunch of grumpy old folks in exchange for Celine Dion and Justin Beiber?

Seems fair.

I am thinking of getting a T-shirt that reads "I will work for Poutine".

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

A bunch of grumpy old folks in exchange for Celine Dion and Justin Beiber?

Seems fair.

Hey, one is about to waste away into the nothingness they came from and mercifully the other is now half zombie in his face and can't sing. 

It's getting even better up here every day! 

[Artkin]

34 minutes ago, Tux said:

How many taxpayer dollars would it have cost the US not to have supported Ukraine?

I don’t think the answer is zero…

Exactly why I think supporting them is the right move. 80 years of Nato military spending in anticipation of this war. I'm not saying it's right or wrong to fund militaries nor am I downplaying the cost of life. The only thing I'm saying is they've sort of managed to accomplish their mission at a significantly cheaper cost than by blowing tons of money on military budgets every year.

[Artkin]

6 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

And here is an ugly scenario

Yeah, very ugly. The whole "American politics is ONLY right and left" is the sort of thing that is ripping this country apart. FFS I hate seeing these types of posts more than anything around here.

[MSBoxer]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Most of the problems the US has domestically are inherently fixable, but the large segment of US society that is against the government doing anything to fix the problems thwarts that.

I place more of the blame on the monied lobbyists who represent the companies/unions/special interests who own the legislators.  Nothing happens without their input up to and including the crafting of bills.  They have far more influence than any voting block. Most of the general public has no idea what any single piece of legislation contains, unless some PR group representing even more money tells them what is in the bill and how they should feel about it.

Edited February 20, 2023 by MSBoxer

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the war...

This link was sent to me just now.  The UK based site is new to me, I think, and looks to have lots of interesting stuff.  The article I was directed to is a very detailed analysis of a DPR assault in Vodanye mid January:

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/20/vodyane-village-assault/

Lots of interesting tactical details, some of which we saw from drone feeds at the time.  However, the conclusions at the bottom are noteworthy.  Again, it confirms we have a very good handle on what is going on in this war:

Quote

Ukrainian gunnery illustrated that precision versus conventional munitions is a false debate.  Both are needed.  The bridge was destroyed by a precision shell.  The assault was checked by conventional shells.

The general conclusions of the DPR performance can be summarized as follows... ill conceived, poorly resources, not coordinated in any meaningful way, and terribly executed.

Steve

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For someone who gets super upset whenever someone else talks about domestic US politics, what gives?

Steve

This really is a “you guys” thing, so I am going to leave out any and all personal opinions one way or the other.  However what I do not get is that the US government is one of the most transparent governments in history.  

So if I am sitting on my back porch and someone in my sphere says “the government is spending all that money on Ukrainians and screwing Ohio-ians, damn [insert political party of your choice]”.  It literally takes an internet connection and about 10 mins to unpack this thing to a level that at least lays out some actual facts:

https://www.policymattersohio.org/research-policy/quality-ohio/revenue-budget/budget-policy/review-of-ohios-2022-23-budget

https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/historical-revenues-and-expenditures-table-1-grf-lpef-and-lgf-revenue-history.pdf

https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/publications/historical-revenues-and-expenditures

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/federal-aid-by-state

So the punchline is that the US federal government spent about $40B on Ohio alone in 22-23 (12B in grants which are code for “we never except to see them back”) and Ohio is in the top ten states to receive federal funding annually.

Yes, it looks like FEMA is being particularly dense and bureaucratic - and they likely need some executive nudging, however, we are talking about apples and unicorns here in both scale and funding streams.

And finally, there is a lot of some pretty convincing arguments flying around that said dangerous cargo was supposed to be off that train but…politics: https://apnews.com/article/wv-state-wire-north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-2e91c7211b4947de8837ebeda53080b9mp-us-news-ap-top-news-transportation-1936e77a11924c909880f1ef014c7ca7

So what?  Well could the federal government be doing more cut through the red tape and support East Palestine Ohio - looks like it could.

Is the US government blowing all it money on Ukraine and therefore cannot support Ohio-eons?  No, that does not track.

Do US rail safety regulations look like they need a revisit - yes, probably a good idea.

Is there a direct link between East Palestine Ohio and US support to Ukraine - no.  In fact trying to find and indirect link is pretty hard.  The US federal budget was roughly $6.27T in 2022.  The $50B in aid to Ukraine comes to about .8% of that.

So for perspective if an average family income in the US is about 71k per year: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2022/demo/p60-276.html

So in parallel terms this would be the same as that family spending about $560 dollars, or about $46 per month.

And last point, one of those corrupt former Soviet republics is Russia, a P5 UNSC member and nuclear power, and is directly threatening US global interest and influence, on a great power scale - you wanna stay on top?  You have to fight for it.

 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am willing to extend some benefit of the doubt that Hersh's single anonymous source was at least superficially credible, not some Twitter nutjob.  However, I am also willing to bet that whomever his source is has ties to the Kremlin in some form. 

Which is how Hersh lost his mojo. Ginning up *single* source unverified stories, into “huge” exposes. Trust is the coin of the realm in journalism. Hersh spent his last one years ago.

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am thinking of getting a T-shirt that reads "I will work for Poutine".

Steve

Two way over-hyped celebs that are turning into statues, and a cheesy sludge that should be above asbestos as a human health risk….this is what we show the world?  No I say!
 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Exactly why I think supporting them is the right move. 80 years of Nato military spending in anticipation of this war. I'm not saying it's right or wrong to fund militaries nor am I downplaying the cost of life. The only thing I'm saying is they've sort of managed to accomplish their mission at a significantly cheaper cost than by blowing tons of money on military budgets every year.

The US has spent trillions since the fall of the Soviet Union in order to protect the United States' interests at home and abroad from China and Russia.  The investment in Ukraine is not only small in proportion, but it is wildly successful.  For $50b we wound up with 30 years' less military hardware and munitions lined up against us.

3 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I place more of the blame on the monied lobbyists who represent the companies/unions/special interests who own the legislators.  Nothing happens without their input up to and including the crafting of bills.

For sure the two are related.  The average person who screams against government regulation is more often than not a pawn.  And like pawns, they are sacrificed with great regularity.

Steve

[Ultradave]

8 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Most of the general public has no idea what any single piece of legislation contains, unless some PR group representing even more money tells them what is in the bill and how they should feel about it.

And yet, EVERY SINGLE BILL in Congress, from the moment written, is available to every US Citizen (for that matter, anyone in the world unless some country blocks it), on Congress.gov, free to read, download, print, full text and summary, status, votes in committee and floor.

The fact that the general public has no idea is at least in part due to the general public making no effort at being informed. When presented with extreme claims of doom due to the potential passing of this or that bill by either party, or any news or social media post, the general public should go read the bill for themselves and find out. 

Dave

[Jiggathebauce]

As pointed out in that recent video by Kraut, the political and economic conditions in Russia created by shock therapy in the 90s, are a window into what will happen in the west if governments are allowed to continue to allow oligarchs and concentrated money/powerblocs to grow and dominate everyone else. 

 

Can the west defeat Russia? It won't matter if it virtually becomes Russia. NamEndedAllen offered one highly specific scenario, there are many others though.

Also as an aside I work as an engineer on the west coast with no debt, and I can't afford a house. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[Yet]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am thinking of getting a T-shirt that reads "I will work for Poutine".

Steve

Dont show up with that in UA. They might think it is French writing for Putin

[NamEndedAllen]

20 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Yeah, very ugly. The whole "American politics is ONLY right and left" is the sort of thing that is ripping this country apart. FFS I hate seeing these types of posts more than anything around here.

Yes, hyper extremism in USA politics sadly is tearing us apart. But it is real, and can’t be ignored as a factor in elections. Exhibit A:

“just don't agree with the way this is all gone, throwing billions upon billions so one corrupt former Soviet republic can fight another corrupt former Soviet republic. Or so that Zelesnky and his wife can go and do a photo shoot with Vogue Magazine.

It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).” From LukeFF, here

Edited February 20, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The US has spent trillions since the fall of the Soviet Union in order to protect the United States' interests at home and abroad from China and Russia.  The investment in Ukraine is not only small in proportion, but it is wildly successful.  For $50b we wound up with 30 years' less military hardware and munitions lined up against us.

For sure the two are related.  The average person who screams against government regulation is more often than not a pawn.  And like pawns, they are sacrificed with great regularity.

Steve

It will never not make me laugh that the party that's now bitching about money spent in Ukraine...as opposed to Ohio...were the same party that gutted the regulations that would have done much to stop or mitigate the East Palestine disaster. 

And to drag this back on topic...that 5% of the US budget spent on Ukraine to wreck the Russian army is pretty much the bargain of the millennium. Stop having yourselves on.