How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Security measures connected to entire Biden's visit were conducted under cover of admitting Israeli delegation. These folks arrived too- members of Defence Comitee of Kneset.

https://www.unian.net/politics/parlamentskaya-delegaciya-izrailya-priehala-v-kiev-foto-video-novosti-kieva-12152100.html

So we have US, Israeli, Ukrainian and Polish services working together in undercover operation Russians probably had no idea about. Putin' services just suffered giant slap in the face. He will need to seriously change his expected expose; nice example of PR warfare on behalf of the West.

 

Btw. Lukashenka find out. He left Russia without official goodbye, so probably Tsar was not content.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

 

 

[Beleg85]

A joke here is circulating that POTUS found his grand-grand ancestor was coming somewhere from these lands... Ukrainian members should understand :

Spolier: for others, this is Dymitr "Baida" Wiśniowiecki/Дмитро Вишневе́цький, epitome of early Cossack.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Vyshnevetsky

Edited February 20, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

US government has made a definitive statement about the Hesh allegation that Nord Stream was blown up by the US:

That's about as clear cut of a denial as it can get.  Kirby went even further than saying nobody associated with the US did it on the US' behalf.

As a reminder:

It could be that there's some gray area between these two statements, but I can't see what that might be.

Steve

 

The most compelling explanation I have seen is the above. Russia had numerous motivations, both strategic and contractual, to explode the pipelines and it looks pretty clear that an accident forced their hand. In addition, the ships Hersh claimed did it where nowhere near the location and in one case was not even in service yet. His role as a conduit for Russian misinformation continues.

[hcrof]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

The most compelling explanation I have seen is the above. Russia had numerous motivations, both strategic and contractual, to explode the pipelines and it looks pretty clear that an accident forced their hand. In addition, the ships Hersh claimed did it where nowhere near the location and in one case was not even in service yet. His role as a conduit for Russian misinformation continues.

While I think this has some merit, it just seems too much of a coincidence that NS2 had an accident at that exact moment when it wasn't even operational at the time. I can believe that Russia wanted to blow up NS1 to force the Germans to accept NS2 but the "accident" is a step too far for me.

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, hcrof said:

While I think this has some merit, it just seems too much of a coincidence that NS2 had an accident at that exact moment when it wasn't even operational at the time. I can believe that Russia wanted to blow up NS1 to force the Germans to accept NS2 but the "accident" is a step too far for me.

That is the supposition given that there was a kink in the line at that point and that the Danes have not said any explosives evidence was discovered at that location. We don't *know* at this point but it is the most reasonable and simplest conclusion based on the evidence that we do have.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Spolier: for others, this is Dymitr "Baida" Wiśniowiecki/Дмитро Вишневе́цький, epitome of early Cossack.

That explains why Biden's visits to Istanbul have always been less successful in comparison. He felt too much on a hook there.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, I actually agree with @Aragorn2002 for 2 posts in a row.  I hope it's not a sign of the End Times lol.

 

Quite worrying indeed. But we both know that can't last for long.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

The most compelling explanation I have seen is the above. Russia had numerous motivations, both strategic and contractual, to explode the pipelines and it looks pretty clear that an accident forced their hand. In addition, the ships Hersh claimed did it where nowhere near the location and in one case was not even in service yet. His role as a conduit for Russian misinformation continues.

Doesn’t matter. He did his job and poisoned the well. Tankies and pro-Russian fascists will be citing his report for decades. I mean, there are still people who think that the Katyn Massacre was Nazi propaganda.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Security measures connected to entire Biden's visit were conducted under cover of admitting Israeli delegation. These folks arrived too- members of Defence Comitee of Kneset.

https://www.unian.net/politics/parlamentskaya-delegaciya-izrailya-priehala-v-kiev-foto-video-novosti-kieva-12152100.html

So we have US, Israeli, Ukrainian and Polish services working together in undercover operation Russians probably had no idea about. Putin' services just suffered giant slap in the face. He will need to seriously change his expected expose; nice example of PR warfare on behalf of the West.

 

Btw. Lukashenka find out. He left Russia without official goodbye, so probably Tsar was not content.

Ok politics aside, that was a pretty ballsy move.  

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Quite worrying indeed. But we both know that can't last for long.

Let us all recall that Aragorn has been very sure that RU could not be trusted and would act aggressively, always.  He also thought we were mostly overoptimistic in how RU would continue to make this war very hard for UKR.  He was right.  He seems to believe that Xi is just as crazy.  I thought that economic interdependence would make aggressive war like this too stupid for even a dictator to attempt -- I was wrong.   So now I look at China and say "they have nothing to gain that is even 1% of the economic damage they would do themselves".  Yet it is now clear that doing something really obviously stupid and self defeating is no longer a barrier.  Humans are crazy, especially dictator humans.  It's like they get bored or something.  Having complete power over 144M people, or 1B people, is just not enough it seems.  Gotta always have a little more.  Like a billionaire who goes to jail because he cheats on $10M in taxes -- how was that worth it?

Edited February 20, 2023 by danfrodo

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok politics aside, that was a pretty ballsy move.  

What’s especially interesting is that it was done under the rubric of an official Israeli delegation. Russia was told only about 2 hours ahead of time. That tells us that Israel is not going to let the Russian dalliance with Iran slide and sure enough today they announced more air defense aid.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That explains why Biden's visits to Istanbul have always been less successful in comparison. He felt too much on a hook there.

+1 for pun.
A carycę w potylicę,
A carską córeczkę – w samą główeczkę.
– Tobie carze w ziemi gnić –
A Bajdzie młodemu miód-gorzałkę pić!

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok politics aside, that was a pretty ballsy move.  

Worth to watch today's Russian propaganda programs. Hard and bitter pill to swallow, especially their own leader was  closest to the warzone at the most at Kerch bridge and his own annoncements are boring, uneventfull and bleak in comparision.

But seriously, this visit will help to target Russian resolve. Even for common moskals it is visible that Western support is solid and going nowhere, which was major argument of Kremlin propaganda directed at home audience for already some time. There will be a lot of outcries to target Kiyv, buffonade at might of their nukes and typical further threats to NATO members, but judging by reaction we already saw something akin to "we already lost it" may be ringing a bell in some Russian channels.

Let's just hope they will not throw additional missiles at Ukraine in revenge.

[Kinophile]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 buffonade

Ohh. Ohh I like this word. Compression of Cannonade (salvo of cannd blasting)  and Buffoon(ery)?

[Beleg85]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ohh. Ohh I like this word. Compression of Cannonade (salvo of cannd blasting)  and Buffoon(ery)?

Yeah, it's from French actually. Sorry used wrong Polish version instead of English one.

 

Interesting read from RUSI:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ending-russias-invasion-requires-reframing-discourse-diplomacy

[Aragorn2002]

35 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Let us all recall that Aragorn has been very sure that RU could not be trusted and would act aggressively, always.  He also thought we were mostly overoptimistic in how RU would continue to make this war very hard for UKR.  He was right.  He seems to believe that Xi is just as crazy.  I thought that economic interdependence would make aggressive war like this too stupid for even a dictator to attempt -- I was wrong.   So now I look at China and say "they have nothing to gain that is even 1% of the economic damage they would do themselves".  Yet it is now clear that doing something really obviously stupid and self defeating is no longer a barrier.  Humans are crazy, especially dictator humans.  It's like they get bored or something.  Having complete power over 144M people, or 1B people, is just not enough it seems.  Gotta always have a little more.  Like a billionaire who goes to jail because he cheats on $10M in taxes -- how was that worth it?

Thanks, Dan. As always you're too kind. I don't have the knowledge like some of the frequent posters here, but I'm convinced this is just the beginning of a very long and nasty story. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yeah, it's from French actually. Sorry used wrong Polish version instead of English one.

 

Interesting read from RUSI:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ending-russias-invasion-requires-reframing-discourse-diplomacy

It's perfect. We can have fun with its various Iterations,contractions, expansions, alterations, verbability, etc

[LukeFF]

Yep, and meanwhile, a small town in Ohio can't get the help it needs. 

And before anyone says it, NO, I don't think the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was in any way legitimate. I just don't agree with the way this is all gone, throwing billions upon billions so one corrupt former Soviet republic can fight another corrupt former Soviet republic. Or so that Zelesnky and his wife can go and do a photo shoot with Vogue Magazine.

It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yep, and meanwhile, a small town in Ohio can't get the help it needs. 

For someone who gets super upset whenever someone else talks about domestic US politics, what gives?

Steve

[Sekai]

15 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yep, and meanwhile, a small town in Ohio can't get the help it needs. 

And before anyone says it, NO, I don't think the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was in any way legitimate. I just don't agree with the way this is all gone, throwing billions upon billions so one corrupt former Soviet republic can fight another corrupt former Soviet republic. Or so that Zelesnky and his wife can go and do a photo shoot with Vogue Magazine.

It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).

How will we respond when Russia tries to exert its influence over another former "Soviet" republic? Let's not be naive about the potential consequences

Edited February 20, 2023 by Sekai

[Tux]

18 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yep, and meanwhile, a small town in Ohio can't get the help it needs. 

And before anyone says it, NO, I don't think the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was in any way legitimate. I just don't agree with the way this is all gone, throwing billions upon billions so one corrupt former Soviet republic can fight another corrupt former Soviet republic. Or so that Zelesnky and his wife can go and do a photo shoot with Vogue Magazine.

It's a pretty ****ing sad state of affairs when our elected leaders are overly eager to send our taxpayer dollars overseas to fund yet another foreign war, but they can't be bothered with pressing issues at home (see also: East Palestine, Ohio).

How many taxpayer dollars would it have cost the US not to have supported Ukraine?

I don’t think the answer is zero…

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Sekai said:

How will we respond when Russia tries to exert its influence over another former Soviet republic? Let's not be naive about the potential consequences

Yes.  This is not just about Ukraine, it's about the barely covert war Russia has been waging against Western interests for decades.  Up until this war Western institutions (political, economic, and social) have been ignoring the damage and wishing away the problems Putin has caused.  I am sorry Ukraine has to be at the center of all of this, but I am thankful that the war has finally gotten Western governments to fight back on all fronts.  It's long overdue.

Steve

[danfrodo]

deleted, not worth it

Edited February 20, 2023 by danfrodo

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

 

The most compelling explanation I have seen is the above. Russia had numerous motivations, both strategic and contractual, to explode the pipelines and it looks pretty clear that an accident forced their hand. In addition, the ships Hersh claimed did it where nowhere near the location and in one case was not even in service yet. His role as a conduit for Russian misinformation continues.

There was a Seymour Hersh decades ago who had some credibility as a journalist. Then he went so far off the rails of factual, evidence based, credible reporting he couldn’t get back. I thought he’d been dead for years. This must be some sort of last gasp by him to regain a sliver of recognition. This ties a bow on his shame.